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Politics Only one man stands between Perry and the presidency

President Rick Perry. That’s right. Rick Perry will be the next President of the United States.

I’m not cheerleading that statement. In fact, I will soon post a column explaining why I’m not a Perry fan.  No, that is a prediction. And in my mind, there is only one man who stands between Perry and the White House: Chris Christie.

I don’t think you can overstate how vulnerable Barack Obama is.  First, as the New York Times pointed out, ““no American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.”  The unemployment rate is not now below 7.2% (granted…an arbitrary figure that needs nuanced analysis…as Nate Silver provided) and doesn’t appear headed that way…at least not quickly.

Second, look at the approval rating of the last 12 presidents at this point in their presidency:

  • Truman: 55%
  • Eisenhower: 70%
  • Kennedy: 61%
  • Johnson: 48%
  • Nixon: 49%
  • Ford: 53%
  • Carter: 33%
  • Reagan: 44%
  • GHW Bush: 71%
  • Clinton: 46%
  • GW Bush: 60%
  • Obama: 39%

Third, how do you think this commercial is going to play a year from now? (Hint – not well.)

So…the point is, Barack Obama is very vulnerable. And, unless Perry pulls a Chris-Webber-timeout-in-the-1993-NCAA-Finals style choke job (which, he totally could), I think Rick Perry will be the GOP nominee to face this very vulnerable president.

Mitt Romney is really Perry’s only competition. (No matter how you or I feel about them, Bachmann and Paul have no chance.) Rick Perry has the best sales pitch in the race: “I’ve created half the jobs in America since 2009.” Mitt Romney has the worst tag line in the race: “I created the model for Obamacare.”  Perry can out alpha-male every candidate in the race…and that superficial aesthetic counts for something.

I don’t think Romney “fills the room” enough to go toe-to-toe with Perry. In fact, I don’t think anyone does…except for Chris Christie.  I think Christie could come in and pit his big, combative, personality against Perry’s big, combative, personality and win.  Perry is practiced and Christie is authentic.  Perry is populist and Christie has never heard of a focus group.  Perry is polished and Christie is fat…and it works for him.  In the midst of this battle Romney, Bachmann and whoever else dare stick around would shrink and shuffle off the stage.

I understand this analysis is skin deep – or … at best – personality deep. This takes no account of the candidates’ substance, of their positions. But guess what…that’s how most of America votes.  And I think unless Chris Christie gets in…America will vote for Rick Perry.



Comments (26)

  • Link8on
    Posted on August 18, 2011 at 8:01am

    Chris Christie said he was going to govern NJ,and not not decide further until the job was done there. Other nominees and reporters will use that to tear him down if he seeks POTUS in 2012.

    Thus Christie’s earliest bid is in 2016.

    Report Post » Link8on  
  • PingPongPing
    Posted on August 18, 2011 at 7:18am

    i have yet to see C Christie pray in public. What is his spiritual lifestyle? To be a true conservative and run for president, one has to look no further than Perry as an example.

    Maybe C. Christie will be asked to run as VP for Perry, who knows?

    But Christie for President? I don’t think so.

    Report Post » PingPongPing  
  • Master_and_Commander
    Posted on August 18, 2011 at 1:27am

    I respect your position Mr. Cain, Rick Perry does have many flaws. But then so do all of the candidates. I think you downplay the authenticity of Perry, and prop up Chris Christie too high. Rick Perry is very polished and well practiced in politics, but he doesn’t play the politician game like Bachmann or Romney, he truly believes what he says.

    Chris Christie does have guts for standing up to the bullying Unions, but conservatives are only seeing that part of him, and for that they declare him to be a great conservative hero. But the cold reality is, if you look at him and his policies, he is not as conservative as people think.

    When you look at his views about the environment and government involvement in the public life, he’s not so bright and shiny. If all the history of his governorship ever became widely circulated outside of New Jersey and into the campaign spotlight, he would be beaten down to the same level as Palin and Bachmann, only this time by the those conservatives who once supported him.

    So like you said, Perry’s got the charm, but even if Christie runs, he’ll still win the nomination. Its gona be President Perry, boys and girls, nobody else stands a real chance.

    Report Post »  
    • Will Cain
      Posted on August 18, 2011 at 7:55am

      I agree. As much as I like Christie. There is more to learn about him. It’s funny how many people think we should be “fans” or “cheerleaders” for these guys. Candidates shouldn’t be rooted for like a sports team. It’s a given that we want to oust Obama, but we have to vet these guys first. Don’t you think?

      Report Post »  
  • AmericanDogMan
    Posted on August 18, 2011 at 1:13am

    Agreed

    Report Post »  
  • workingclass artist
    Posted on August 18, 2011 at 1:09am

    1. Good Grief! keep Gov. Christie in NJ and let him continue his job. We need Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio to stay where they are too. Let the talent GROW and load the seats in congress and in the states.

    2. If the blogger can’t recognize an Authentic Reagan Commonsense Conservative because he has a West Texas twang then ask Michael Reagan who wrote months ago that Gov. Perry is like his Dad and that Texas lives the legacy of Reagan.

    Gov. Perry is doin the deal and He can rally the American People too so we can do what we do best…Down here we call this commonsense and Leadership.
    We are doing this in Texas and Perry will get the Federal Govt. out of the way.

    Report Post » workingclass artist  
    • Master_and_Commander
      Posted on August 18, 2011 at 1:39am

      Your correct, Perry is being attacked with half truths and lies being circulated by both the Liberals and GOP republicans who see him as a threat to their establishment. the truth is Perry really is a hard core Reagan following Tea Partier who is very pro-Constitution and anti-big government, contrary to whats being spread around by the Ron Paul supporters. Just look at Texas. You just don’t get a state this good economics if your actually an establishment Republican like Romney or Gingrich.

      Check out this article from Rush Limbaugh, he explains it best:

      http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_081711/content/01125109.guest.html

      Report Post »  
    • markkg22
      Posted on August 18, 2011 at 5:18am

      Yeh, But what has he done about all those feral hog’s I keep hearing about down there!

      Report Post »  
    • Will Cain
      Posted on August 18, 2011 at 7:57am

      I’m from Texas. And I’m not so sure.

      Report Post »  
  • lesstressrx
    Posted on August 18, 2011 at 12:38am

    Chris Christie has made it clear he is not ready for the job as President. He knows himself better than anyone else. Why would anyone want to draft a person that just plain doesn’t want it. He has said over and over he is not running. If all of a sudden he would decide to run, I would question his authenticity. We have no idea what kind of President he would be. He has been a Governor for a very short time. I heard him in a speech tonight say he agreed with Obama on some things. Wonder what those things are??? He didn’t support Gov. Brewer on her immigration fight.
    I like Cain & Bachmann, but due to money they will not be able to stay in. You are right, it most likely will be between Perry & Romney. Romney is a for sure RINO & his health care bill in Mass. is too much like Obamacare & he continues to defend it. Do you really think he will repeal Obamacare, I certainly have my doubts. So for me I will listen to Perry & not the reports flying around from the left. They don’t want him, that could be a good thing. The drive by media despise & fear him. I believe Perry can beat Obama & we Americans must hold his feet to the fire. We can’t have 4 more years of Obama, it just isn’t an option.

    Report Post » lesstressrx  
  • Psycholitics
    Posted on August 18, 2011 at 12:01am

    It’s a great observation that Christie is the only one that can challenge Perry in terms of aggressive campaigning. Both men share the same personality type (ESTP). Their type is characterized by bravado, media manipulation, and tactical prowess. Sarah Palin is also an ESTP, as were TR, FDR, JFK, and LBJ.

    All of these presidents were marked by their pragmatic approach to governance and a focus on impact and results rather than ideology. They enter situations as troubleshooters and do whatever it takes to get the job done. (e.g. creating S.S. and Medicare without regard to the inevitable long term consequences).

    As for President Obama, he is an ENFJ, and an ideologue. Read this article for an in depth analysis of his type and presidency:
    http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8155339/understanding_obama_a_personality_perspective.html?cat=9

    Report Post »  
    • Will Cain
      Posted on August 18, 2011 at 8:43am

      We underestimate how much a personality type plays with the public. It’s important.

      Report Post »  
  • Technotrucker
    Posted on August 17, 2011 at 10:42pm

    Christie has bowled himself out of the race by appointing a Muslim judge to office. I don’t see any recovery for him in that aspect.
    Perry is a Democrat who was Gore’s campaign manager and still does business in bed with Corporate lobbyists and has a liberal view of running govt.
    Bachman signed the Patriot Act under Bush, that is a career killer in my opinion. Someone please tell me who all these TEA party supporters are?
    To blatantly say in text that Ron Paul has no chance is beyond reprehensible. McCain, the RINO two faced weasel that he is, had a 1% approval rating at the beginning of the Primaries, virtually guaranteeing a win for the Dem’s. Yet he still got the nod from the GOP.
    The fact is, although you would never believe it according to the media, Ron Paul has the highest approval rating of any of the candidates according to virtually every major poll. All the major networks including FOX are slanting their coverage to keep the real best choice out of the picture. Ron Paul Revolution.

    Report Post » Technotrucker  
  • SilentReader
    Posted on August 17, 2011 at 10:07pm

    Rick Perry will be defeated on these two issues alone. His stance on Islam. Read this article “Rick Perry’s Dangerous Muslim Compromise” by Joel Richardson originally posted on World Net Daily:

    http://americandefenseleague.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/rick-perrys-dangerous-muslim-compromise/

    “That said, right out of the chute, of cause for deep concern is an apparently close relationship Perry has fostered over the years with a Muslim leader know as “His Highness” Prince Shah Karim Al-Husayni, the Aga Khan IV.”

    And his stance on health care mandates. So, before you decide that Rick Perry is the panacea of the Conservatives read this article by the Queen of Bite, Michelle Malkin.

    http://michellemalkin.com/2011/08/16/rick-perrys-bad-obama-style-medicine/

    ” I’m far less aggravated by Gov. Perry’s injudicious toss-off remarks than I am by his profoundly troubling, liberty-curtailing actions in office and his fresh batch of specious rationalizations for them. My syndicated column today dissects Perry’s recent, so-called “walk backs” of his odious Gardasil vaccine mandate for children. I’ve written and reported on vaccine bullies in the schools and on informed parental authority over vaccines previously. But as you’ll see from my column below, Perry defenders who dismiss critics as “single-issue” activists are willfully blind to the Gardasil disgrace’s multiple layers of rottenness.”

    Report Post » SilentReader  
  • bethg
    Posted on August 17, 2011 at 9:50pm

    What about Paul Ryan? I know he’s thinking about it. I know he’s young. I know he’s from the House and that would be very unusual, but I really like him. I think we have a few tough years in front of us to turn things around and I think I really trust him. I trusted Christie until he said he “might” run in 2016. 2016?? We need him now!! If he doesn’t know that, then he’s not paying close enough attention!!

    Report Post »  
  • The Shadowmaster
    Posted on August 17, 2011 at 9:24pm

    Tricky Rick Perry is another Islam suck-up. We need someone who gets the threat. We don’t need more Neville Chamberlains.

    Report Post »  
  • zoo9guy
    Posted on August 17, 2011 at 9:16pm

    I’m a little leery of Gov. Perry, he seems like more of the same old…..He doesn’t pass my BS meter, I’m hoping whoever becomes the GOP candidate is a real Conservative, fiscally and morally. Small Government is the only thing that should be acceptable, repealing all the regulations that are being stuffed down our throat should be the #1 priority.

    Report Post » zoo9guy  
    • Will Cain
      Posted on August 18, 2011 at 7:53am

      I’m skeptical of Perry too. But he’s benefiting from a lack of competition.

      Report Post »  
  • GadsdenGurl
    Posted on August 17, 2011 at 9:07pm

    I am SOOOOOOOOO sick of hearing about Perry… I hope his 15 mins of fame will be up soon. And I hope you ‘conservatives’ will learn your damned lesson because if you put this guy in, you’ll get what you deserve — same as Obama — the same people vetted and put him up to running.

    YOU ARE ALL NUTS. THE GUY IS SICK FAKE.

    http://www.nhteapartycoalition.org/tea/2011/06/23/rick-perry/

    Report Post » GadsdenGurl  
  • LibertyGirl USA
    Posted on August 17, 2011 at 9:03pm

    Looking forward to the next article about why you don’t support Perry. I am still in the decision making process. I like what Chris Christie has to say, but he has to back it up with his short performance in his state. While there are certainly issues that Perry can be attacked on from the right, he has been governor for 11 years.

    Report Post » LibertyGirl USA  

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