This is the headline I want to see on November 6.
It means that Romney wins and Nate Silver, author of the NYT blog fivethirtyeight, lost his bet to Joe Scarborough that Obama would win.
Though, since his model is arguing there’s a 4 to 1 chance Obama wins, I’m not sure why it’s a $2k v. $2k bet. It should be Scarborough risking $2k and Silver risking $8k.
Anyway, Silver is predicting that Obama has a 78.4% chance of winning re-election.
Now that number seems insane, but unlike other conservatives out there, I don’t think Silver is pandering to the left—I just think his model leaves room for some questions.
What happens to Silver’s model if it’s off by even a lil’ bit? Read here to find out.