It’s a mixed bag: the answers you’ll find when trying to determine who will claim the presidency tomorrow. Intrade, the site where people pool bets and which many believe is a spot-on accurate predicting model, is giving Obama a landslide victory with over 66% of the vote. Other pollsters, too, claim the numbers favor Obama while every major political pundit and strategist including “the architect” Karl Rove believes Romney will take tomorrow in a landslide. I, for one, am going with Rove & Co.
At the end of the day, independents (who account for roughly 14% of likely voters) favor Romney by 7 percent — well outside the margin of error — according to the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC poll. Without independents, Obama doesn’t stand a chance.
Whats more, all of the demographic groups: Arab-Americans, Jewish-Americans, Hispanics, and particularly women, the youth contingent and blacks — that came out in record numbers and propelled Obama to victory in 2008 are simply not as energized as they were four years ago and the approval ratings prove it. Even if many from these demographic groups refuse to vote for Romney, they certainly do not feel compelled to make the effort to vote for Obama either. Quite simply, women and minorities will not come out en force the way they did in 2008. Most major strategists have said that Obama needs the same level of support from minority groups to secure the presidency.
Another important factor to note is that the number one issue concerning voters, according to every major poll, is still the economy. And, you guessed it — according to most polls, Americans still favor Romney over Obama when it comes to jobs and the economy.
It also bears mention that people always associate gas prices with the current administration. And with $5 a gallon gas prices across the country, Americans driving to the polling stations are none too pleased.