Good news for John Boehner & the GOP…?

Before the election, I highlighted a report arguing that Republican control of state legislatures would end up earning them about 11 seats because of redistricting. The fact that the House total barely budged in a very good year for Democrats nationally — and in which House Democrats won the popular vote — suggests that this probably played a role.

This is especially clear if you take a look at the share of House seats won by Democrats in states where Republican-controlled legislatures redistricted in 2011 and 2012, and compare that to the share of the vote President Obama won.

Hm: Could the GOP be running the House for a while?

The bad news for Democrats?  The next Census isn’t for another eight years and making big gains in the House will be nearly impossible until 2022 when districts are redrawn.

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