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163K Jobs Added & Unemployment’s up? What Does This Mean for the Election? Here’s What You Need to Know

163K Jobs Added & Unemployments up? What Does This Mean for the Election?Okay, here’s something that’s sure to confuse some people: The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday the economy added 163,000 jobs in July while the jobless rate ticked up slightly to 8.3 Percent.

But if jobs were added, how did unemployment rise? Moreover, what does this mean for President Obama and Republican presidential
hopeful Mitt Romney?

Before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s try to understand the economic data.

First, the feds do one survey to learn how many jobs were created (payroll survey) and another survey to determine the unemployment rate (household survey). As you can probably guess, the two surveys can produce conflicting results.

The payroll survey asks mostly large companies and government agencies how many people they employed during the month. This survey produces the number of jobs gained or lost. In July, the payroll survey showed that companies supposedly added 172,000 jobs, and federal, state and local governments cut 9,000.

The household survey asks whether the adults in a household have a job. Those who don‘t are asked whether they’re looking for one. If they are, they’re considered unemployed. If they aren’t, they‘re not considered part of the work force and aren’t counted as unemployed. The household survey produces each month’s unemployment rate.

In July, the household survey showed that the number of people who said they are unemployed rose by 45,000. In a work force of 155 million, that’s enough to raise the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent in June.

Moreover, and this is crucial to keep in mind, “the report’s household survey [also] showed that the actual amount of Americans working dropped by 195,000, with the net job gain resulting primarily from seasonal adjustments in the establishment survey [emphasis added],” CNBC reports.

“The birth-death model, which approximates net job growth from newly added or closed businesses, added 52,000 to the total,” the report adds.

So, circling back to the beginning, how will this affect the election?

First off, you know Team Obama is going to eat this up, right? But let’s be fair. Despite that massive drop in the workforce, the Obama campaign can brag about the results of the payroll survey because the numbers supposedly increased, right?

Well, let’s think about this. The numbers may have “increased” — but not enough to offset unemployment. Are we really this desperate for positive economic news that these numbers are being hailed as a sign of a “recovery”?

If “this is what passes for good economic news for the Obama administration, it’s more of an indictment than a boost,” writes Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey.

Secondly, if the president plans on using these numbers on the campaign trail, he should consider the following [via Zero Hedge]: “the [163,000] number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print.”

Wait, what? How did the BLS work their data to make what should be a plunge look like an “adjusted rise”?

“Simple: the BLS ‘added’ 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July [Non-Farm Payrolls] print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the … chart below shows,” Zero Hedge reports.

163K Jobs Added & Unemployments up? What Does This Mean for the Election?You got to be kidding me.

But wait! There’s more!

“[T]he Birth Death [B/D] adjustment … was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000 [percent] higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K!” the Hedge continues.

163K Jobs Added & Unemployments up? What Does This Mean for the Election?

In other words, there’s a whole lot of “statistical fudging” going on at the BLS.

What does all of this mean for Romney?

First, he needs to drive home the point that the only piece of supposedly good news comes from a survey of large companies and government agencies. The bad news comes from small businesses.

Secondly, he could make the case that the BLS’ data is slightly, um, “fudged.” But he probably won’t. The headlines are already out there and to publicly challenge the BLS wouldn’t get him anywhere.

Bottom line: Unemployment has risen to 8.3 percent and the economy supposedly added 163,000 jobs in July.

Team Obama is touting the new payroll survey results while the Romney campaign is attacking them over the fact that the bad news of the day involves small businesses, which, you know, is the part of the sector that’s supposedly “doing fine.”

Follow Becket Adams (@BecketAdams) on Twitter.

The Associated Press contributed to this report, this story has been updated.

Comments (64)

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  • TheCounterRevolutionary
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:58pm

    The creation numbers have been fudged. They have deliberately inflated the number of jobs created last month in order to soften the blow to the Obama administration caused by the up-tick in unemployment. Just wait; a few months from now, after the election, the number will be revised down to between thirty and seventy thousand. This is the problem when you have so much authority housed under the umbrella of the executive; there is no incentive for the honest reporting of politically damaging news.

    Report Post » TheCounterRevolutionary  
    • MittensKittens
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 2:32pm

      It means you can’t do math…just as the liar in chief said today, he created “172k” jobs…and the unemployment rate “unexpectedly” went up…WE LOST MORE JOBS THAN WERE CREATED…wake the F*** up!

      Report Post » MittensKittens  
    • gac1218
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 3:05pm

      People! It’s time to wake up. Quit letting some report tell you weather or not our economy or the jobless rate is bad. If your‘e awake then it’s plain to see. We are all victims of run away spending by both houses of congress. Some of you may already know this, but 16 trillion in debt means the U S is borrowing 40 cents on every dollar, making that 40 cents worthless and unbacked. That means everything you spend money on costs you 40% more than it should. That is a hidden 40% sales tax on everything you buy. Be brave and don’t compromise on your elected officials. Don’t be a partisan Nazi. If we don’t shortly change our ways then this country we all love will come crashing down in an instance. No program will change this country. only when we turn back to God and his principles and require that in our leadership will healing come to this county. A fearful man votes for the better of 2 evils and receives evil. A faithful man makes no unholy alliances and is blessed by God, in the midst of the storm. Are you fearful or faithful today?

      Report Post »  
    • TXGal
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 6:25pm

      ADP reported the growth was half of what was reported by the government. I guess the government can not count or they know it would make Obama look worse. The truth will come out.

      Report Post »  
    • Cymry
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 8:36pm

      @TXGRL,

      welcome to the “Truth Will Come Out” club. we birthers have been here for 3.5 years and got jack for the effort.

      Report Post » Cymry  
    • ManThong
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:39pm

      Well, at least the crowd on this site is hip to the fact that almost every piece of information that comes from the government bureaus of disinformation and manipulation are bogus.

      It wouldn’t surprise me to see them go all North Korean on the election results and dear leader Obama gets 100% of the vote.

      The majority of the government school educated public and the media would be good with that.

      Report Post » ManThong  
  • Cymry
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:51pm

    Rasmussen is reporting in his most recent analysis that obama will win the election if things stay as they are. Glenn has said that he believes that we’ve been given an extra amount of time before the collapse…….that extra chance is wasting away.

    Jesus is returning soon. The harvest is plenty but the laborers are few. evangelism is what we need to be focusing our energies on. yes, vote for romney but do it after you talk to someone about Jesus and their eternal salvation.

    Report Post » Cymry  
  • LINKSTER
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:50pm

    If taxes on workers and producers are reduced there will be more workers and producers. Is that so hard to understand.
    The bottom 20 percent of income earners have gone from paying taxes in the early 1980s to actually collecting money from the IRS now as a result of the Earned Income Tax Credit ( EITC ).
    ” The best form of welfare is still a good high-paying job ”
    John Kennedy

    Report Post »  
  • dlivelli
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:36pm

    Here is what it means….the administration is LYING!…..every month the numbers come out, whatever they are for, and in a week or two they get “revised”. That however is on the back page so you don’t notice the BS. This guy has lied since he got in….why stop now…he has gotten us used to it!

    Report Post »  
    • MCDAVE
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:50pm

      Wolf wolf wolf …. Even if he tells the truth no one will believe But that won’t happen.

      Report Post »  
  • MCDAVE
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:29pm

    CLICl on this to see the real unemployment numbers http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/08/03/obama-sets-unemployment-record-42-consecutive-months-above-8/ Also a great photo for obama to see

    Report Post »  
  • Bill from NJ
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:29pm

    Hummm…….
    As repeated by Mark Twain; to quote Disraeli,
    “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics”
    Our government in action, twisting the truth, again!

    Report Post » Bill from NJ  
    • MCDAVE
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:52pm

      Even the Republicans avoid the real truth on Unemployment…Don’t understand why.

      Report Post »  
  • IMCHRISTIAN
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:06pm

    That is what I would call false accounting of figures. If you tell someone you have $10.00 to spend because you called the bank and they said you have $10.00 in your account but what the bank did not know a $10.00 check had been written that hadn’t cleared so you should have said you have NO money. They are doing same thing almost in their statistics with jobs and energy programs as they just do it their way which isn’t always the right way.

    Report Post »  
  • patcash
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:05pm

    Dec 08 working age population: 235.035 mil, employed: 143.338 mil
    Jul 12 working age population: 243.353 mil, employed: 142,220 mil

    Jobs dropped 1.118 mil while population increased 8.319 mil. Gap: 9.437 mil.

    Jun 12 working age population: 243.155 mil, employed: 142.415 mil
    The gap for Jun 2012 was 9.043 mil.

    We LOST 394,000 jobs in July!

    http://bls.gov/schedule/archives/empsit_nr.htm

    Report Post »  
  • Meyvn
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:56pm

    Too much lying going on for me to even pay attention to this kinda of garbage.

    Report Post » Meyvn  
  • Baikonur
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:49pm

    My own IT job was outsourced to India after 11 years of working for the same company in the US and Europe a few months ago.

    I trained the people who replaced me. They were lovely people, it was not their fault in any way. I loved visitng Mumbai.

    The project managers who oversaw this whole process were brought in from outside (in my company’s case, they were from IBM). Our old managers were all let go, with one or two retained as consultants only.

    The old business model was that project managers were people who knew the most, mentored others, worked long hours, developed personal relationships with clients. The new model was a PM that shmoozed the client and knew nothing of the business.

    I understand the business advantages of outsourcing, but it is the death of IT here, which is very sad.

    Report Post » Baikonur  
  • blackbean
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:42pm

    When is bad news also good news? Just wondering. I’m certainly no stock market expert, but it sure is weird that the rise in unemployment today has sent it into orbit. Do they know something are they in la la land?

    Report Post »  
    • MCDAVE
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:46pm

      Cant trust the stock market…just as well take your money to a Casino.

      Report Post »  
    • RamonPreston
      Posted on August 4, 2012 at 10:46pm

      I invest all my money in the markets…Tops, Wegman. Walmart….

      Report Post » RamonPreston  
  • lylejk
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:14pm

    What a farce; a joke if you will. What only matters is how much money you have saved up and if you have a steady job. 63% of folk have a steady job; that’s lowest in quite a while. The 37% left are either unemployed, under-employed (or self employed but making very little), or not making any income at all existing on either government, charity or other means such as savings if they are lucky). That’s reality. Wallstreet’s going up on the hope that Bernake does QE3 which is a good possibility meaning those who depends on savings will have even less ability to live. This whole economy is artificial and not controlled by any free market rules that made us great. Stock prices are governed almost solely on the hope that Bernake prints (actual or virtual) more money. This is why we are going under. Sad; plain sad. :)

    Report Post » lylejk  
  • watersRpeople
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:03pm

    I’m still trying to figure out how it is anyone thinks they have won. After-all, you eat genetically engineered food, and you plant that which is easy to grow. That’s why Europe wants to keep your engineered food out. Food represents the state of the people’s heart.

    Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:07pm

      That‘s why it isn’t that I don‘t like your gift’s, but it‘s what’s in your heart I don’t like.

      Report Post »  
    • sooner12
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:21pm

      I have read your posts before. You’re a sick man needing psychiatric care.

      Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:43pm

      Me “a sick man”, no I’m not sick…you are, and you need a doctor. Everything I said is written in the Voynich Manuscript.

      Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:44pm

      And I like Tomatoes a lot, and I’m am tired of eating Tomatoes that smell like fish.

      Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:53pm

      If I want to taste fish I will eat fish.

      Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:55pm

      You can say I’m a sick man all you want to, or you can ask the former inhabitants of Mars if I’m a sick man.

      Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:13pm

      Either people are going to undo the damage, or God is going to undo the damage.

      Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:18pm

      First you started engineering food, and that was quite annoying, but then you started engineering people, and that was extremely over the top. When you start engineering the human body – that makes it even harder for God to talk to you. Because the human body is already imperfect as it is, and then people make it more imperfect. Then God will have to leave the human body, and go back to (what you might call alien form), and then earth is gonna have hell to pay.

      Report Post »  
    • watersRpeople
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 1:24pm

      For crying out loud, men don’t even love their children enough to receive their own children from their wives, and you think you’ve got what it takes to be a father – let alone become gods.

      Report Post »  
    • MCDAVE
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 2:02pm

      Waterspeople is correct about the genetic engineered food. need to return to genetic pure seeds and organic farming..Farmers know the truth.

      Report Post »  
    • FREEDOMoverFEAR
      Posted on August 4, 2012 at 8:22pm

      Genitically engineered food? What the hell are you talking about I grew up raising beef cattle they got squeezed out their mommas just as naturally you and I did. No mad scientists, maybe youre referring to giving the cattle dewormer and antibiotics to the calves about a full year before they hit the auction house. LOL research is what you need to do

      Report Post » FREEDOMoverFEAR  
  • Individualism
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:58am

    there is nothing to celebrate if only slightly more than half of the country is working.

    Report Post » Individualism  
  • Brother Winston Smith
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:54am

    THIS is what you need to know… FOR TAMPA!

    Barack Obama – Illegal alien criminal Dream Amnesty
    Mitt Romney – Illegal alien criminal Dream Amnesty
    Ron Paul – NO DREAM AMNESTY

    Barack Obama – Executive ordered sodomite/lesbian marriage
    Mitt Romney – Executive ordered sodomite/lesbian marriage
    Ron Paul – Get government OUT of marriage

    Barack Obama – TARP (that ignited the Tea Party)
    Mitt Romney – TARP (that ignited the Tea Party)
    Ron Paul – Warned and warned AGAINST TARP

    Barack Obama – Signed NDAA
    Mitt Romney – Would sign NDAA
    Ron Paul – REPEAL NDAA

    Barack Obama – PRIVATE Federal Reserve
    Mitt Romney – PRIVATE Federal Reserve
    Ron Paul – END THE FED.

    Barack Obama – Isolationist foreign policy of UNCONSTITUTIONAL welfare/warfare
    Mitt Romney – Isolationist foreign policy of UNCONSTITUTIONAL welfare/warfare
    Ron Paul – American, Constitutional nonintervention

    Barack Obama – UNCONSTITUTIONAL “Patriot” Act.
    Mitt Romney – UNCONSTITUTIONAL “Patriot” Act.
    Ron Paul – Fourth Amendment

    Barack Obama – Gungrabber (Endorsed handgun ban and limiting gun purchases)
    Mitt Romney – Gungrabber (Gun Control flip-flopper who SUPPORTED Brady)
    Ron Paul – Second Amendment – Introduced legislation to repeal the “Brady Bill” and the so-called “Assault Weapons Ban.”

    Obama – COMPULSORY, UNAMERICAN “healthcare.” (Obamacare)
    Romney – COMPULSORY, UNAMERICAN “healthcare.” (Romneycare)
    Ron Paul – American free-market healthcare

    Report Post » Brother Winston Smith  
  • dublinthewagons
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:50am

    Obama needs. More dead vote turnout, and all of Cuba, Mexico, South America & Africa’s votes. Just to cover up his lies and win the election

    Report Post »  
    • vox_populi
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:05pm

      Nah, poll-wise he’s still up in the electoral college 332-206 (which is a pretty solid thrashing), and he hasn’t even yet brought in his South American shock troops or unleashed his coup of Islamo-Communism.

      Hilarious!

      http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Jul30.html#item-1

      Report Post » vox_populi  
    • Walkabout
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:30pm

      vox_populi

      Bradley Effect

      Report Post »  
    • vox_populi
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:34pm

      Really? And how’d that work out for you in 2008?

      Report Post » vox_populi  
    • Walkabout
      Posted on August 4, 2012 at 11:54am

      vox_populi
      Obama now has a track record & it is one of economic failure & foreign policy disaster.

      For example he reset Russo-American relations. After the intial honeymoon period as shown by pollsters, we will be right back to where we were. In the meantime Putin is jabbing us whenever we can. He pissed of Poland, the Czech Republic & others. the man is a leftist fool.

      Report Post »  
  • MiCurmudgeon
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:49am

    When 350,000+ people apply for unemployment every week according to the Government with numbers released every Thursday AM what idiot will say this is a good job by Obama and his control of Congress. What ever happened to the “ Buck Stops Here”?

    Report Post »  
    • drbage
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:00pm

      With this “most transparent” administration in history, you have to ask them how they define words, in this case “here.“ Wonder if you dive down in these jobs ”created” would you find one of the larger groups be teachers working in summer schools?

      Report Post »  
  • doomytram
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:42am

    Leftist, Barack Hussein Oblamer, has spoken and the following is his White House response spin…”Look, let me be clear! The Private Sector is doing fine“ ”What we have here is a need for more Government Jobs. Yes Guberment jobs! Hope and Change. Here we go, we need to hire more Federal Government jobs, Over paid jobs, and give them big bounses for doing nothing and regulating us.

    Report Post » doomytram  
    • dublinthewagons
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:53am

      Hire more postal workers to deliver food stamps and unemloyment checks. Or as the liar would say stimulus.

      Report Post »  
  • watashbuddyfriend
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:42am

    “163K Jobs Added & Unemployment’s up?” means that a heck-a-lot-more have lost their job, and have applied for on employment!

    Report Post »  
  • MeteoricLimbo
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:40am

    oi vey

    Report Post » MeteoricLimbo  
  • Rothbardian_in_the_Cleve
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:40am

    Beautiful!!! Nice job Blaze (Zerohedge).

    The Birth/Death model is an absolute joke. It’s a political tool to lie to the population. Hopefully people will start to do their own research on this topic and get more informed.

    Report Post » Rothbardian_in_the_Cleve  
    • dublinthewagons
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:01pm

      Young people entering the workforce ( high school, college etc.)
      Are U that stupid? Can you make change or dial a phone

      Report Post »  
  • YourVoiceMatters
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:35am

    Wait a week !
    They will once again revise the numbers when no one is watching….
    They have been doing this their whole time in office
    jury rigging the numbers…
    to spin the outcome to their benefit!

    Report Post »  
  • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:35am

    Here is another article, right from Drudge Report, detailing that of the 163K jobs created; 150K people left the work force, so more jobs added, minus those leaving the work force, is only about 13K to the good; which means, as usual, the administration lied.

    http://cnsnews.com/news/article/195000-fewer-americans-had-jobs-july-150000-dropped-out-labor-force

    Report Post » Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
  • contkmi
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:35am

    Does this come as a surprise that Obama and his minions are fudging stuff? They’ve been doing it for years.

    Too bad MSM won’t pick up explanations.

    Again, people, look at the U6 number. Much more accurate.

    Report Post » contkmi  
    • Walkabout
      Posted on August 3, 2012 at 12:37pm

      U.S. News & World Report final print edition 2010

      Newsweek going bankrupt.

      Print editions have taken a hit because of the internet. But that is not the whole story. Just like the big 3 ABC, NBC & CBS no longer have a oligopoly & are no linger considered authorative. The same is happening to the print media.

      The point is some of the polling institution that fudge their polls will go extinct too. Survey the pollsters. consider their track prognosticating track record & choose who you will believe carefully.

      Verce, keep drinking the Kool Aid

      Report Post »  
  • Alky
    Posted on August 3, 2012 at 11:35am

    “the economy added 163,000 jobs in July. ”
    But… apparently, 150,000 left the work force (?)

    Report Post » Alky  
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