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Jobless Claims Spike 34K: Here’s What You Need to Know

Jul. 19, 2012 10:55am Becket Adams

As we briefly mentioned in our daily “Morning Market Roundup,” the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits surged last week by 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, according to the latest figures from the Labor Department.

So why the increase? Most economists agree: “seasonal factors.”

“More Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week as the volatility induced by the annual auto-plant retooling period started to wear off,” Bloomberg reports.

“The number of U.S. workers filing applications for jobless benefits rose sharply last week, as seasonal factors play havoc with the data,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Let’s turn to Zero Hedge to see what they make of the Labor Department’s data:

So much for last week’s shocking beat in Initial Claims, which as a reminder printed at 350K on expectations of 372K, driven by the July 4 holiday and, what we described were “onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline.”

Okay, so last week’s depressed figures were somewhat of an anomaly. July is a volatile month. Nevertheless, while most everyone realized that those low(er) numbers would be short-lived, there were still a few people who trumpeted that report as great news.

This week’s gain in jobless claims, as the Hedge notes, follows a drop of 24,000 the previous week and was the biggest jump since April 2011.

“All of this is statistical noise,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., wrote in a note to clients. “What will be more important than these short-term gyrations is where claims settle down after the distortions end. We suspect that the data will point to a soggy labor market.”

The less volatile four-week average fell by 1,500 to 375,500.

Nearly 5.8 million Americans were receiving some type of unemployment benefit the week that ended June 30, according to the most recent data available. That was down from 7.3 million a year earlier.

“Although the labor market is stronger than it was in 2011, it is not particularly robust,” says Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics.

Job growth slowed to 75,000 a month from April through June, down from healthy 226,000 pace the first three months of the year. Unemployment has been stuck at 8.2 percent for two straight months.

A survey from the Fed said hiring was “tepid” in most districts in June and early July, and manufacturing weakened in most regions.

The only piece of good news we’ve had recently are reports that the housing market is finally starting to look up. The government reported Wednesday that U.S. builders last month broke ground on the most homes in nearly four years. Single-family home building rose for a fourth straight month. And permits to build single-family homes hit the highest level since March 2010.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Comments (34)

uptickusa
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:42pm
Difference between GOP and Democrat

GOP signs front of the check
Domocrat signs back of check

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N-TIME-WATCHER
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 9:38pm
I’ve been in the printing industry for 26 years and have been applying to jobs all over the country since January 2012. Jobs are few and far between and I’m seeing 200-400 people applying for 1 job!!!! I HOPE my situation will CHANGE very soon!!!

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Individualism
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 5:41pm
housing market going up isn’t good news, that means less people can afford them and longer term enslavement to the bankers, let houses go down and get affordable again. there is nothing good about being on a mortgage.

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- Micmac
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 7:07pm
  With the amount of shadow inventory still to be foreclosed upon and then marketed, the prices of housing aren’t going anywhere. Prices rise and fall daily/monthly like a stocks price, due to local factors, but the whole picture is still bleak. Anyone who only looks at the short term market gyrations is lost and confused, or a day trader.
  
  NoBama > MoBama
  
  Report this comment
libsaredangerous
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 5:25pm
how many disability claims were filed?

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flatbroke
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 4:17pm
Acctually if you count the number of people who have stopped looking for work+ unemployed+ underemployed= unemployment rate 16%, but O’bama will never take responsiblity for any damn thing, its just blame Bush, or blame someone or thing else, and why does O’bama have a 40% approval rating, who are these morons that intend to vote for him?

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- RamonPreston
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 6:38pm
  The ones who don’t want to be labeled “racist.” I wouldn’t vote for him no matter what you called me.
  
  Report this comment
little big man
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 3:29pm
the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits surged last week by 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000.
********************************************************************************************************************

Better make that 34,001 and 386,001 I just lost my job.

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- cessna152
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 9:29pm
  Sorry to hear. Hang in there. Don’t give up and keep moving forward. God bless and God help us all
  
  Report this comment
Alky
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 1:41pm
The guy with the “I Need A Job” T-shirt should think about not voting for Obama next time!

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- little big man
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 3:25pm
  Today after 7 years of hard work I lost my job. they just picked up my company truck. they said it wasn’t my preformance, but down sizing.
  
  So now I will need to collect some Obama money. first time I have been with out a job since the late 1980′s
  
  oh well wish me luck, and god bless to all on the blaze.
  
  Report this comment
- hatchetjob
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 9:26pm
  Good luck LITTLEBIGMAN. Hopefully November will bring better days.
  
  Report this comment
shogun459
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 1:26pm
Perspective

“The Patients color is good!” “But his heart rate is falling!”
“The Patients **** looks is good!” “But his heart rate is becomming irregular!”
“The Patient Still looks young!” “But his heart rate is skipping like a dancer!”
“The Patients eyes are open and clear!” “I think the heart has stopped!

Depends on what you think is important.

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TRILO
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 12:44pm
I am so sick of hearing from so-called expert economists. Their excuse this month is because more people are unemployed because of “seasonal factors”? Next month it will be because of the drought, and on and on and on. How about more people are filing for unemployment because the economy as a whole sucks. The spin is enough to make one sick. The only reason they keep trying to paint a picture of a recovering economy is they need to perpetuate the confidence in our fiat money.

“The only piece of good news we’ve had recently are reports that the housing market is finally starting to look up. The government reported Wednesday that U.S. builders last month broke ground on the most homes in nearly four years.” Just read today that existing home sales are down 5.4%. for the month of June. First time home buyers are also down.

Our country is based on nothing but lies. The media lies, government officials lie, politicians lie, etc, etc. Every day it gets harder and harder to find the truth.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-drop-5-140239145.html

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- contkmi
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 1:34pm
  Yes, Rook, the numbers are fantastic. That’s why Obama had his flunkies change how they’re calculated so that they show a lower unemployment rate. And you’re actually proud of a 4 week average of more than 375,000 newly unemployed? You just keep gulping the koolaid, don’t you? 8.2% is the new 4.8%?
  
  Report this comment
term limits for congress
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 12:38pm
You were employed because the government helped create your place of employment.

You are unemployed because your employer did not pay enough taxes.

Got it.

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Detroit paperboy
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:50am
The government has made employing anybody a complete nightmare…..along with the lawyers…..my whole business plan revolves around NOT HIRING ANYBODY…….not to mention most of them are worthless products of public education, unable to read their own diplomas…..

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- My Two Cents
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 12:41pm
  I share your sentiments. Even though we could keep two more employees busy my wife and I are doing more with less when it comes to staffing our business. All of the wonderful hope and fundamental change is keeping us on the sidelines when it comes to new hires and future expansion.
  
  Report this comment
- UXO
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 4:33pm
  Mind boggling isnt it. No new hires at this small business either.
  
  Report this comment
affinity
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:30am
I’ve concluded that neither the Federal Reserve, Democrats or Republicans know how to solve the world currency problem. We’re in deep trouble. When everybody is done blaming each, borrowing money from each other and watching the majority of the human population suffer needlessly have the Blaze email me.

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- historyguy48
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 12:22pm
  Comrade, we aren’t in trouble, it’s far worse than that! It can’t be solved primarily because the entire system is dependent upon debt, and there isno way out of the 50 trillion dollars of consumer debt alone, not to even mentioned all the government debt!
  Read Becks book “Broke” its clear and concise about how we got here and where we are. His “answers” to an unanswerable problem are better than just using pixie dust to fix it, but not much because it is an unfixable problem!
  When the party starts, and according to Geo. Soros it will statr in late Spet or early Oct of this year, you had better have a years worth of food, per person, on hand. The means to protect it, and a group of like minded individuals because alone you won’t survive.
  If you want an idea of what is coming read the e-book “Death of Civilization; the Apocalypse Begins” by Nathan Hale. It’s a work of fiction, so far, thank God!
  
  Report this comment
Snaker
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:29am
It’s even worse than that. Labor will re-cook, re-release the revised numbers
in a couple of weeks quietly indicating “numbers worse than originally thought.”
Obama: “Don’t read a lot into these numbers…”
We can believe N-O-T-H-I-N-G this administration says.

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- pavnvet
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:59am
  New home building is up, but sales last month were down 4%. Something is wrong with that picture. The article also says unemployment has been 8.2% for two months, not saying it has been above 8% for 42 straight months. Of course, nothing said about the long term under and unemployed which stands around 15% overall. We are in deep dodo. And, what is Obama doing? Playing golf, attending fund raisers and campaigning. I have lived during 11 presidents in office, Obama is hands down the worse. My folks (in their 80′s) say the same.
  
  Report this comment
contkmi
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:26am
I think everyone should start reporting the U6 number. It’s more accurate than the BS number Obama’s flunkies put out.

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RJJinGadsden
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:25am
Hmmmm, maybe if our roads, bridges, and all of that government help was in better shape, we just might not have this jobless problem. Too bad that these idiotic libs who claim that they built all of this infrastructure then turned to buy votes with all of those tax dollars rather than letting the infrastructure fall into near collapse….

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GAKnight
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:18am
the spike would have NOTHING to do with the SCOTUS ruling that ObamaTaxYourCare was constitutional? Smart business owners are going to have to get anorexic in the labor dept…

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- rickc34
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:28am
  why yes, yes it is the fault of Obamatax ,
  
  Report this comment
Stuck_in_CA
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:14am
OBAMA’S KENYAN BIRTH RECORDS DISCOVERED IN BRITISH NATIONAL ARCHIVES
WHERE LIES GO TO DIE – Evidence discovered shows British Protectorate of East Africa recorded Obama’s birth records before 1963 and sent returns of those events to Britain’s Public Records Office and the Kew branch of British National Archives…
http://thedailypen.blogspot.com/2012/07/obamas-kenyan-birth-records-discovered.html#comment-form

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- MODEL82A1
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:38am
  IF that “story” were true (and it’s not), it would be the ONLY evidence in existence that Barack Obama’s mother had ever even been to Kenya.
  
  Report this comment
- Detroit paperboy
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 12:02pm
  It’s the reason he CAN’T realease his college records……he was a foreign exchange student…..if Romney had a pair, he would hammer him home on this, I will release my taxes when you release ALL YOUR SEALED RECORDS…..PERIOD !
  
  Report this comment
Thighmaster
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:12am
I’m sure Jay Carney will explain it so we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

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LukeAppling
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:07am
The Obama Presidency is based on shoddy record keeping [Fast & Furious], miss-stating employment numbers weekly and changing the method of calculating those numbers. If the true numbers were shown with black unemployment at 15% and black young men at 44% and the total number of people receiving unemployment checks from our tax dollars,yours and mine, for 99 months is sinful and corrupting our nation. Bail out GM with unlawful tactics, fudge the employment numbers, control the media, spend more time on the golf course than in the meetings with his Jobs Counsel and tell us lie after lie how much more can we take?

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Anonymous T. Irrelevant
Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:07am
You won’t be hearing this on ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS, NPR, MSNBC, CNN, HLN, or any other progressive/communist mouth-piece for King Obama.

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- hatchetjob
  Posted on July 19, 2012 at 11:55am
  Very true.
  
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