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The Final Candidates for a Possible Romney Cabinet: Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense

Sep. 10, 2012 11:46am Mytheos Holt

Part VI of a series on Romney’s potential cabinet appointments.

Having handicapped most of the main figures that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney could nominate to his cabinet if he is elected president, this series now finally draws to a close as we consider the people who Romney might select for two of the most consequential positions in the United States government: secretary of state and secretary of defense.

In both of these cases, the nominee will have big shoes to fill. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has flown above the fray relative to other Obama advisers, and is respected across party lines. Obama’s two secretaries of defense — Robert Gates and Leon Panetta — have also been relatively nonpartisan and scandal-free, and at least one presided over the death of Osama bin Laden. Romney’s choices in these departments will not be risky or excessively controversial, and they arguably shouldn’t be. In at least one case, one of these people is several heartbeats from the presidency. As such, all of the choices listed below are what we have called “safe” choices. Their rank as “exciting” or as “wild cards” is based solely on how likely they are relative to each other.

Secretary of State

Robert Zoellick (Photo Credit: Wikipedia)

The safe choice: Robert Zoellick

Why? Zoellick is the only person thus far to have been mentioned in connection with this post, and his appointment is reportedly seeing as very, very likely among diplomatic circles. It’s not difficult to see why at all. He has held numerous stratospherically powerful foreign policy positions, and nearly every diplomat has probably coveted at least one of his former jobs at one point. He was president of the World Bank, managing director of Goldman Sachs, deputy secretary of state and U.S. trade tepresentative. His resume might as well be printed on diamond.

Why not? He might not want it. Other than that, there is no conceivable reason that Romney will not choose him.

Robert Kagan (Photo Credit: Carnegie Endowment)

The exciting choice: Robert Kagan

Why? Kagan would be a logical second choice if Zoellick says “no.” As a well-respected foreign policy hawk across party lines — with appointments at the Brookings Institute, at Harvard, and on Romney’s foreign policy advisory committee — Kagan has the academic bona fides for the job, and is trusted by the candidate. He lacks Zoellick’s gold- plated resume, but is well-respected enough in the American foreign policy establishment, especially as a thinker, to be seen as a safe pick. His connections with Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol could also give him a high degree of support from likely Republican donors.

Why not? Kagan is a neoconservative’s neoconservative, and choosing him would ignite comparisons to George W. Bush like a brushfire. Moreover, some conservatives might even find Kagan to be an unreliable pick for his overemphasis on humanitarian intervention using American power, rather than believing in the straightforward maximization of American power.

John Bolton (Photo Credit: AP)

The wild card: John Bolton

Why? Bolton is a conservative celebrity pick, and a more risky pick than several of the other figures on this list, though not by much. His resume, which includes service as UN ambassador, is more practical than that enjoyed by Kagan, though it doesn’t quite rise to the level of over-qualification enjoyed by Zoeller. Moreover, if things go seriously awry, there is no doubt that he would be willing to assume the presidency. After all, he himself was considering running once.

Why not? Bolton’s never been particularly close to the Romney camp, and may be considered too controversial.

Secretary of Defense

John Lehman (Photo Credit: NBC)

The safe choice: John Lehman, Chairman of J.F. Lehman and Company

Why? Lehman is one of Romney’s more trusted advisers on defense already, and rather like Zoellick, his resume reads as almost too good to be true. A former secretary of the Navy under Reagan, a powerful investment banker and a major figure at the Center for Security Policy — which is something of a feeder for Republican foreign policy leaders — Lehman would seem to have the full package. He is skilled at Washington bureaucratic knife fights, as his time in the Reagan administration would attest, and is in many ways an ideal choice for Romney.

Why not? Lehman also has some of the liabilities of Robert Kagan — namely, he’s a neoconservative’s neoconservative, and would be seen by many dovish opponents of a Romney administration as a return to Bush-style foreign policy. In fact, Bush was rumored to have been considering Lehman for the post after the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld. He may want to stay out of the sun, given these facts.

Michael Hayden (Photo Credit: Wikipedia)

The exciting choice: General Michael Hayden

Why? Hayden has been the subject of speculation for this position already, and his resume does seem to point towards it. Like Robert Gates before him, Hayden served as director of the CIA under a Republican president, and his long record of military service can’t hurt in making the case for him to be picked. He also served as head of the National Security Agency. Clearly, like Lehman, he also has a long record in Washington, and is a consistent pick with past practices.

Why not? Hayden’s private sector experience is thin, compared with Lehman’s. Also, where Lehman may be seen as too neoconservative to net bipartisan support, Hayden may be seen as skittish in areas where Republicans will want to be more aggressive. Specifically, he has expressed doubts about the idea of attacking Iran’s nuclear program, which puts him at odds with Romney’s more conservative supporters, and with some of Romney’s statements themselves.

David Petraeus (Photo credit: AP)

The wild card: CIA Director David Petraeus

Why? Despite being a registered Republican, Petraeus would be seen as a bipartisan consensus pick for a very simple reason: He’s also an Obama appointee. In fact, he’d be a prime candidate for this job in either Romney’s administration or if Obama is reelected, primarily because he’s seen as one of the last genuine war heroes in America. Like Hayden, he would come from a background that is par for the course with modern Defense Secretaries, being a former CIA Director.

Why not? He may be seen as too cozy with the Obama administration, though that’s not the most compelling reason he wouldn’t be chosen. The most compelling reason is that he may simply not want the job, or might disagree with Romney too much to serve under him.

Bonus: Federal Reserve Chairman

Glenn Hubbard (Photo Credit: Columbia University)

The safe choice: Glenn Hubbard, Dean of Columbia Business School

Why? Hubbard has already been mentioned as a lock for either this position, or for secretary of the treasury. Given the presence of other figures who could assume this role at treasury, and also given both Hubbard’s academic background and centrality to the Romney economic team, we believe he’s a more likely fit here. His economic worldview is amorphous enough that his selection would not set off panic in capital markets, and given his relatively unknown status, he would have the freedom to define the job in his own way.

Why not? He may be appointed as treasury secretary. His past as a Bush administration official who argued for financial deregulation may also be used against him by Democrats eager to collect a scalp by accusing Hubbard (and thus Romney) of corruption.

Martin Feldstein (Photo Credit: AP)

The exciting choice: Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University

Why? Feldstein is also a close Romney adviser, albeit one with a bit more ideological meat to him than than Hubbard. A former Chairman of Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, Feldstein has been very open about his skepticism of the monetary expansion that has taken place under Ben Bernanke, and his selection would send a clear signal that under Mitt Romney, there would be no QE4, QE5 or any other QE from this point onward. Appointing him would mark Romney as very willing to reverse course on the Obama administration’s fiscal policy and pursue a more aggressively anti-inflationary agenda. At the same time, Feldstein has been an aggressive defender of Romney’s tax plan.

Why not? Feldstein’s monetary hawkishness could be seen by the markets as likely to be painful. Romney would not want to spook markets that way.

Gregory Mankiw (Photo Credit: Greg Mankiw's blog)

The wild card: Gregory Mankiw, Professor of Economics at Harvard University

Why? Mankiw is another Romney adviser with the academic and professional bona fides to be Fed chairman. However, ideologically, he is a bit more of a lightning rod than Feldstein or Zoeller would be, which would suit him well in the increasingly visible role that the Federal Reserve Chairman is coming to play in economic debates. Mankiw is no stranger to controversy, having argued that economic inequality is natural, and outsourcing is good. He could stand his ground in a way that Bernanke simply hasn’t.

Why not? Mankiw might have already made too many enemies. His comments on taxes and inequality would alienate Democrats, and his position on carbon taxes and inflation would alienate Republicans.

RELATED:

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Comments (69)

riseandshine
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 3:40pm
We’re screwed.
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- riseandshine
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 3:52pm
  Pardon the language.
- mrsuperpat
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 8:45pm
  Pure NeoCon fantasy politics. These people won’t solve crapola.
  
  Report this comment
- KURT1010
  Posted on September 11, 2012 at 5:55am
  Never heard of these people ? ? ? ? ?
  
  Report this comment
- C. Schwehr
  Posted on September 11, 2012 at 8:48pm
  This posting line is completely without intelligence. John Bolton has been in the news for some time, and to many he seems to be the perfect choice, especially since he doesn’t buy the b.s. being thrown about by the Iranians.
  Michael Hayden did an excellent job as head of the CIA, and would continue to do so as SecDef.
  As for FedHead, that’s a no brainer…NONE OF THE ABOVE! We don’t need another elitist banking shill controlling the economy. Put RON PAUL in, step back, and watch the fireworks (although I suspect that Dr. Paul wouldn’t live very long. Anyone who goes against the Fed never lives long enough to see any changes enacted.
  
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NO_MORE_OBAMA
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 2:47pm
Who are these retreads? Lets try this!

Sec State … Rice
Defense … West

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- Chinishque
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 3:14pm
  I will go with West but I dont want the rest of that Harvard trash…have we not had enough of these egghead do-nothings?! I am not a Ron Paul guy for pres, but would it not be cool to have him running the FED?! Talk about cleaning house!!!!!!!!!! If we have to have the FED, put somebody in there that will actually do what the PEOPLE want done. Romney best remember why we are electing him or he will be a one termer as well. We are holding our noses to support Romney and voting against Obama and we want **** fixed, not a return of the liberal minded Harvard neo-con Bushians.
  
  The definition of insanity is to do that same things over and over but expect different results. To the dust heap with Compassionate Conservatism, we need hard men to make hard choices to get this country back on track…no more lilly lipped namby pamby milquetoast pandering…lead or get out of the way and the only way to lead is to pick real leaders who are not afraid or are worried about how they will look on camera or about their career! We need people that are going to do what is RIGHT no matter the consequences…ala Col. West.
  
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- Marj0120
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 3:56pm
  Rice = Dept of Education
  West = Defense
  Bolton = Sec of State
  Arpaio = Dept of Justice
  Palin = Dept of Energy
  Paul = Fed Chair
  Lose EPA except for a skeleton crew headed by someone with good business and science skills.
  
  Report this comment
- mtcountrygrl
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 4:34pm
  @Marjo
  Good list but I would like to add…Newt – Press Secretary.
  
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- Chinishque
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 8:05pm
  @Marjo…I like the whole list…I will even accept Rice if we can have Arpaio!!!! Now that list would be BOLD!!!
  
  Report this comment
DeeDeeBear
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 2:22pm
okay how many people agree with me that ENOUGH ALREADY WITH AN ADMINISTRATION FULL OF HARVARD ALUMNI!!!! The second I see an administration appointee from Harvard I throw up a little bit in my mouth!!!! I am voting for Mitt b/c he’s not Obama BUT I don’t trust anybody from Harvard. They are a bunch of Fabian Socialist that think they know what is best for us. NOT

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- Chinishque
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 3:17pm
  EXACTLY!!!!! WTF is up with the BLAZE???? It is like reading a liberal rag these days! Who are these policy wonks they have on staff…they best sit up and smell the mood of the country…we are pissed and we don’t want your choices! WE WANT DOERS not TALKERS!!!
  
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FEISTY
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 2:20pm
I hate to seem like a black cloud, and this game is certainly a lot of fun to play in choosing an all-star cabinet, but there is a REALLY HARD ELECTION TO WIN FIRST, and while OBAMA is doing a very good job at diverting attention away from the real issues with his lies and blame game, and getting people passionate about non-issues, Romney is not meeting him blow-for-blow and is still seemingly trying to play nice guy. As boxing trainer Angelo Dundee once famously shouted, “YOU’RE BLOWING IT, KID!! YOU’RE BLOWING IT!”, I think Romney is falling behind and is being out-smeared by the Obumma machine. At this point, if he keeps up this passive attitude he is simply NOT going to win. He’s slipping behind in key swing states and we can sugarcoat it all we want and say the polls don’t matter much, but I wouldn’t care if the numbers were the other way around. I think the number of undecideds is small and a 3%-4% deficit in a key state will be almost impossible to turn around.

MITT: YOU NEED TO START PROVING THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN LIES AND DISTRACTS FROM THE TRUTH. Lay out the real facts and show how the left is manipulating reality. Otherwise, I am afraid, he has little chance of beating this smear machine. Just my 2 cents. I don’t have a good feeling.

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- bigdaddyt46
  Posted on September 11, 2012 at 6:17am
  exactly. Romney has got to become more agressive then he has displayed thus far. he needs to swing hard and often on obummer’s failures, and his diversion tactics. Romney is a gentleman to a fault. this however is not a gentleman’s game. ramp it up Romney you need to go into pitbull mode.
  
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mdbd
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 2:15pm
Hey did you guys lose my reply to HI?

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beket
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 2:09pm
Bolton for State. And K T McFarland for Sec of Defense!!!!

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cyclops
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 2:08pm
Well, this is nice but I would concentrate for now on making sure that I cast my vote for THE NON BO BOUND FOR DISASTER TRAIN CANDIDATE……

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MadeMyDay
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 2:04pm
Bolton!

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watashbuddyfriend
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:41pm
Gotta go with Bolton!

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- Twinspeedr
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:52pm
  Yessir. Love Bolton.
  
  Alan West for Def Sec, hello?
  
  An while I’m at it. How about Dr. Ron Paul for Fed chair? Eh?!!! Can you imagine the conversations between RP and Bernanke during turnover?
  
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- Chinishque
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 3:20pm
  @TWIN You are right on the mark!!!!
  
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elosogrande
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:29pm
I didn’t see any predictions as to what cabinet positions (and departments) might better be shut down.
EPA is nothing but a boonedoggle designed to make certain individuals rich. Education, at thwe federal level is a failure. Interior? – failure. Energy? – failure. Fanny? Freddie? I’m sure there are others, but they may be too politically entrenched.

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jackact
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:28pm
John Bolton for secretary of state.
No one understands the foreign policy ‘game’ better than Patriot Bolton.
It would be smart to include American exceptionalism in the form of Mr. Bolton in the
‘grown up’ Romney administration.

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- PeachyinGA
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 4:54pm
  I’m a Bolton fan myself. In the span of many years of his tv interviews, his opinions have never left me disappointed, like most from D.C.
  
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LIB3RTY4991
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:25pm
Ron Paul for Federal Reserve Chairman! No, seriously think about it. What better way to end the Fed then from the inside.

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Micmac
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:19pm
These choices are Harvard and Columbia. Same ol’, same ol’. If these upper choices are Romney’s choices, then we lose. We need appointed officials that will turn the direction of the country around and get off of its current path to collapse. I don’t give a damn if they are “respected” among the “community.” The Fed needs to be closed for business, as does the EPA, Dept. of Education, Energy, etc.

NoBama > MoBama

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booger71
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:04pm
We don’t need a federal reserve chairman, except to return monetary policy back to the Treasury and Congress.

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justangry
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:03pm
“Kagan is a neoconservative’s neoconservative, and choosing him would ignite comparisons to George W. Bush like a brushfire.”

Careful Mytheos, That’s anti-Semitic code to some of you readers…. but yeah, the fact that he’s on Romney’s staff is scary enough. The neocons need to be sent back to their think tanks, (the closest thing to the legion of doom)

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- riseandshine
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 4:02pm
  The Freedom Agenda….Yippee!
  
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SamIamTwo
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:55pm
Private experience to run DoD? Come on now, we have THOUSANDS of private sector CONTRACTORS who assist DoD in the decision making process. Now to cut the fat, you have to cut the CONTRACTS. DoD has contracted our virtually every federal civil servant position. That is why they are going after the warrior.

Sorry time to plus up and stop contracting out. The cost of contracting out-the labor cost is the same if the individual works for either the gov’t or the company. Add overhead, g&a, including profit for the coos and the wrap rate for that position exceeds the rate when he/she was employed to do the same function while in DoD.

And if you stop contracting out, that would put about 2M workers at risk…so yeah let’s beat down the remaining servants in DoD.

Actually if they were smart they would combine ALL agencies due to the fact that each agency have similar functions, from contracting to finance. Consolidate like functions and thin out the herd. It was mentioned in the 70′s and was part of a white paper.

The combined CMD with DCASR and went from 12K to 5K. It was the tip of the spear. But it stopped there.

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- SamIamTwo
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:58pm
  EDIT: Last sentence: “They combined…”
  
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mdbd
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:50pm
John Bolton for Secretary of State, Allen West for Secretary of Defense. Both well qualified, knowledgeable, Honorable & for America & her citizens first & foremost* Romney could make no better picks. I hope he will consider them!!

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- grandma7
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:26pm
  Absolutely!!! Bolton = West for sure!
  He passed over West, once (although most are happy with Ryan). Many of us will be voting for Ryan. He can appease the TParty/912/Conservative/etc. by choosing Bolton & West. It will be the Olive Branch to the people who will end up his constituents. Proof that he acknowledges these groups.
  
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hi
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:41pm
There is not one black guy or female. Way to drive away independents and look racist!

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- SamIamTwo
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:57pm
  Yeah, gotta comply with the EEO. Disregard the qualifications and lets get some women and minorities in the WH…I think that’s how Obama got elected…………….
  
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- mdbd
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:58pm
  These choices should not be made based on skin color nor gender!! They should be made based on the individuals qualifications period…
  
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- bay horse 1
  Posted on September 11, 2012 at 7:52am
  West Sec Of Defense??
  
  Why in the hell would you want some one that got his ass booted out of the Army???
  
  I like the rest of the list not one that got the job because of skin color…
  
  Report this comment
Ghandi was a Republican
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:32pm
These ar anything but big shoes to fill relative to the obama regime. Obama is an abject failure across the board. Some cabinet choices would be Palin: Interior or energy, Gingrich: State! or commerce!, Allen West: State or defense!, long list of reformers who can act quickly!

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- Kozys
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 1:52pm
  I agree. West needs to be in sec. o D. and Palin should be incharge of the D. o Energy
  
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wildwood
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:26pm
The first thing we have to do is get MITT elected!!!
It is going to be hard with all the lies the democrats are floating on the air as disgraceful as it is their ignorant base is laping it up!!!! expecting more hjand outs!!!! It a shame they cannot look at the future and see if we don’t get the economy turned around there will be no freebies for any one!!
We only need to look over seas to see what is in store for all of us!!!!!
-

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Slowman101
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:09pm
Regardless of who it is, Mitt Romney has proven he can make the right choices so far.

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- chucksue351
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:18pm
  i doubt it, he will only appoint insiders from the council of foreign relations like all his predessors period,
  
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blackfeather
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:05pm
….simpletruths…yeah right…we sit quietly in the wings until November…then we’ll see the communist run out of our white house.

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MiCurmudgeon
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:01pm
Mitt has proven he can pick an excellent working team. Oblamer has proven he can select inept personnel which he refuses to meet with after appointing them.

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Sirfoldallot
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 11:51am
Why no Allen West ?

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- beatobama
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:15pm
  My guess would be that Allen West would serve as Secretary of the Army. Bigger things could come later, but this would be a good first step.
  
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- NoFameLost
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 12:22pm
  While I would appreciate him as either SecDef or SecArm. I think he would take a lot of flack for *only* having been a LTC.
  
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SimpleTruths
Posted on September 10, 2012 at 11:49am
Well this would be somewhat interesting if Romney actually had any chance of winning in November, but he doesn’t.

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- Chinishque
  Posted on September 10, 2012 at 3:24pm
  You must be a member of the chooom gang.
  
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