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Is the Obama ‘Convention Bump’ Really Just Due to Spending?

Sep. 12, 2012 3:11pm

President Obama’s much touted “convention bump” has been the subject of media speculation and, in some cases, celebration. Even given the generally less-than-reliable sample sizes for some polls, many news organizations are wondering whether it is time to celebrate the premature death of the Mitt Romney campaign. The hysteria has arguably even penetrated the Republican strategic class, who are frantically armchair quarterbacking ways to get Romney out of the supposed polling hole generated by the Democrats’ presumptively superior convention.

It’s not difficult to see why – the conventions are an easy explanation for the poll boost. But what if they’re not actually the causal factor? That’s the finding of a new study out today by the Wesleyan Media Project in Middletown, Conn., which shows that, far from being the result of a superior convention, the current “bounce” that Obama is enjoying may simply be due to overwhelming amounts of pro-Obama spending. From the organization’s press release announcing the results:

Although the Romney campaign has (until recently) dominated the money race, the Obama campaign dominated the broadcast airwaves in the two weeks during the presidential conventions.

As Table 1 shows, during the August 26 to September 8 period, Obama and his allies aired 40,000 ads on broadcast and national cable television, the vast majority of which were paid for by the Obama campaign.Β Β By comparison, Romney and his allies aired 18,000 ads on broadcast and national cable television during that same time period.

Table 1: Ad Airings by Sponsor in Past Two Weeks

Β 
Sponsor

Est. spending

# Ads

Favored candidate
Barack Obama

$19,598,700

37,230

Obama
Americans For Prosperity

5,607,000

7,354

Romney
Mitt Romney

3,344,530

4,503

Romney
American Crossroads

1,039,550

2,819

Romney
Priorities USA Action

1,056,120

2,764

Obama
Restore Our Future

2,486,570

2,711

Romney
DNC & Barack Obama

280,310

606

Obama
SEIU Cope

186,390

374

Obama
RNC & Mitt Romney

264,480

308

Romney
Susan B. Anthony List

135,270

84

Romney
*Totals are from August 26 through September 8.Β Β Numbers include broadcast television and national cable spots.CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS:Β Β Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project

β€œIn the past couple of weeks, Obama advertising has outpaced Romney advertising by more than a two to one margin,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project.Β Β β€œDuring both the Democratic and Republican conventions, pro-Obama advertisers dominated the airwaves in numerous markets, including key swing states such as Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia.Β Β This advantage may help to explain why Obama’s β€˜convention bounce’ was larger than Romney’s.”

If Fowler is correct, and this is the cause for Obama’s bump, it’s unlikely to persist as a statistical phenomenon. The Romney campaign easily has more cash on hand than the Obama campaign, despite the Obama campaign narrowly out-fundraising them this past month. The Wesleyan results suggest that the Romney campaign’s methodical willingness to wait to spend its money could pay big dividends once the Obama campaign runs out of cash.

In fact, the bump appears to be dying already. Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Tracking Poll on the Presidential race today indicates that the President leads Romney by only a single point.

In CONTROL, Glenn Beck presents a passionate, fact-based case for guns that reveals why gun control isn’t really about controlling guns at all; it’s about controlling us. Find out more HERE.

Comments (29)

  • PointBreak
    Posted on September 13, 2012 at 4:05am

    The saddest part about Obama? There will never be another black president ever again. He’s ruined it for all people of color and set the fight against racism back another 100 years. As a black man I’m very upset that my children will have to re-fight the battles won by all the civil rights leaders like Dr. Martin Luther King who gave their lives only to have this man could undo his legacy. Sad.

    Report this comment

     
    • Pearsontech
      Posted on September 13, 2012 at 1:45pm

      While I can see this being a valid point I really don’t think that its true or that it will play out that way. I know I have no problem voting for a black, white, hispanic, woman, or whatever they could be green with pink poka-dots and I would care as long as they believe in this country and and have good character. Not everyone is perfect and don’t expect them to be we are all human but you know when someone has good character and when someone has bad character. Its not about race or sex for me and I am white. Its about the character of the person running.

      Report this comment

      Pearsontech  
  • soybomb315_II
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 11:10pm

    Is TheBlaze admitting that spending money on ads wins elections????

    Gee golly who would have thunk it. So what do you call it when Mitt Romney was outspending his opponents 5 to 1 in critical states? But the media and Theblaze pretended at the time that Mitt Romney was the republican choice. And Mitt Romney STILL barely won those states

    Report this comment

    soybomb315_II  
  • LowTax
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 7:48pm

    polls are skewed, remember wisconsin exit polls? the polls that matter are inside 2 weeks of the election so that pollsters can save what little rep they have. romney needs to not mess up, keep hammering the failures of this excuse of a POTUS. 50 years old and I have never been polled. BHO messed his pants today not knowing what to do, so he apologized, no questions and off to vegas to fundraise. Going to be a huge GOP turnout, no doubt, it will happen.

    Report this comment

    LowTax  
  • intercepter
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 4:40pm

    this is easy ,the media said he was going to get a bump from the convention ,and he did
    they said unemployment would be eight ,,close ,,just can’t get the lie that big yet
    And the favorite is ,are you better off then four years ago ,actually I remember all the libs ******* and moaning about Bush being in bed with the oil companies cause gas was 2.50 a gallon ,I just filled up at 4.15 a gallon thinking barry must be a crappy lay on top of the other stuff he is crappy at

    Report this comment

    intercepter  
  • h20sue
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 4:18pm

    I’m so tired of hearing about Obama’s poll ratings climbing over Romney. Are there that many socialist idiots in this country? I’m stressed enough from trying to keep my business open and serving my customers. I think the young folks who Obama is going after are going to vote Obama because they know nothing about history, can’t read, can’t write a note, and if they didn’t have computers and all other electronic gadgets, they couldn’t survive. Are we going to allow them to VOTE? Heaven help us as all the minorites want is “free”, and as long as they know they will continue to get “free” from Obama, they will vote for the Oreo Monkey. It’s truly disgusting. Why not go into the mental hospitals and have those folks vote too, because it’s no different then what is being allowed else wise.

    As a woman, I find Obama’s “ads from women” truly degrading to women. All of us do not find Obama flattering, or worthy of being President of the United States. Any woman, who can’t understand right from wrong, see through Obama’s lies, his infidelities towards the economy, his disgusting spending habits, his socialist views, they must be completely brain dead. As far as birth control, I had to pay for mine, so why should the government pay for theirs? Obama, a “community organizer” with NO business experience, so without THIS, and no budget in the last three years, why would they want him in the Whitehouse for another 4 years? Wake up women! VOTE FOR ROMNEY OR LEAVE

    Report this comment

    h20sue  
    • encinom
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 4:48pm

      It could be your right wing, tea ****** fanaticism that could be driving away your customers.

      Report this comment

      encinom  
    • LakeHartwellSailor
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 5:47pm

      H2OSUE –

      You are absolutely correct. This is my concern as well.

      @ENCICOM – I reckon Sue is talking about people just like you. Your “boy”, Obama is the lying empty suit.

      Report this comment

      LakeHartwellSailor  
  • LibertyMindedAboveAllElse
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 4:05pm

    For those who are saying Obama is tied with Romney due to “owning” liberal polls are uninformed.

    Rasmussen, is conservative and have correctly called the presidential elections each time. As of now they are still tied. Has nothing to do with money more so that it has to do with the majority of Americans being ignorant of the liberties they are losing from Obama.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

    Report this comment

    LibertyMindedAboveAllElse  
    • encinom
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 4:49pm

      Nope, people don;t want a liar, empty suit Romney in office.

      Report this comment

      encinom  
  • countryfirst
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:58pm

    Wife just came home and showed me that our Romney sticker had been removed. Obama supporters really show there intellect and tolerance.
    It’s all good, just ordered a larger support decal and made a contribution so if I feel better now. It was probably someone who doesn’t put their money were there mouth is, so I just helped my grandsons future I wonder what they do?

    Stay safe out there .

    Report this comment

    countryfirst  
    • USALOVER2011
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 4:16pm

      Ohhhhh, I know what they do….They are waiting for handout like they always do!!! By the way, was your car damaged when they removed the sticker? I’m just wondering because I’m worried if I put Romney’s sticker, and the libs would scratch or damage my car, because they are haters and they do idiot things!!!

      Report this comment

      USALOVER2011  
  • Chrison
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:55pm

    The only poll that matters is the one that will be held November 6th. That’s when the American people get to decide what they want… a faster march towards self-destruction, or a turn toward a better way.

    Report this comment

    Chrison  
  • Eric_The_Red_State
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:43pm

    I love this James Carville quote….

    β€œIdeologies aren’t all that important. What’s important is psychology.

    The Democratic constituency is just like a herd of cows. All you have to do is lay out enough silage and they come running. That’s why I became an operative working with Democrats. With Democrats all you have to do is make a lot of noise, lay out the hay, and be ready to use the ole cattle prod in case a few want to bolt the herd.

    Eighty percent of the people who call themselves Democrats don’t have a clue as to political reality.
    What amazes me is that you could take a group of people who are hard workers and convince them that they should support social programs that were the exact opposite of their own personal convictions. Put a little fear here and there and you can get people to vote any way you want.

    The voter is basically dumb and lazy. The reason I became a Democratic operative instead of a Republican was because there were more Democrats that didn’t have a clue than there were Republicans.

    Truth is relative. Truth is what you can make the voter believe is the truth. If you’re smart enough, truth is what you make the voter think it is. That’s why I’m a Democrat. I can make the Democratic voters think whatever I want them to.”

    Report this comment

    Eric_The_Red_State  
  • aragona
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:40pm

    I have come to the conclusion that Obama has more than a vested interest in making sure the polling data continues to remain very tight. It’s much harder to steal an election where one candidate is perceived to be way ahead, than it is to steal an election where both candidates are perceived to be fairly even. My theory is based on several factors – the recent lawsuit against Gallup after they refused to change its polling methodology, the fact that the media are more than willing to continue to promote the message that this is a tight race, the questionable polling practices of many of the polling services, and the administration’s continued resistance to any type of legislation requiring voter ID laws despite SCOTUS rulings to the contrary.

    Also, stuck in the back of my mind is this Slate article, http://www.slate.com/blogs/victory_lab/2012/08/30/three_fifths_of_milwaukee_s_black_voters_have_vanished_without_a_trace_.html

    Did they vanish or did they ever exist to begin with? Comments?

    Report this comment

    aragona  
  • Sirfoldallot
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:28pm

    I’d like 2 give the DNC a real BUMP, it’s called a boot.

    Report this comment

    Sirfoldallot  
  • Ghandi was a Republican
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:26pm

    Obama might win 3 States. The illusion is no more. The Teleprompter king still cannot speak without it. He is a phony and a thin skinned socialist with no plan other than borrowing, printing, taxing money. He is the exalted leader of the clueless.. He is Jimmy Carter all over again…..

    Report this comment

    Ghandi was a Republican  
    • Gonzo
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:35pm

      One big difference, as clueless as Carter was, he loved his country.

      Report this comment

      Gonzo  
    • barber2
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:40pm

      GONZO: Agree. And Jimmy Carter wasn’t mentored by angry, black males nor did he attend Occidental College, ” the Moscow of southern California .”

      Report this comment

      barber2  
  • dickdastardly
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:25pm

    Loses = not winning, lost
    Looses = v. loosed, loosΒ·ing, loosΒ·es
    v.tr.
    1. To let loose; release: loosed the dogs.
    2. To make loose; undo: loosed his belt.
    3. To cast loose; detach: hikers loosing their packs at camp.
    4. To let fly; discharge: loosed an arrow.
    5. To release pressure or obligation from; absolve: loosed her from the responsibility.
    6. To make less strict; relax: a leader’s strong authority that was loosed by easy times.
    v.intr.
    1. To become loose.
    2. To discharge a missile; fire.

    Report this comment

    dickdastardly  
  • mbriz
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:24pm

    No, it’s due to O being a better candidate who is going blast Romney in Nov. Sorry clones.

    Report this comment

    mbriz  
    • Gonzo
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:33pm

      You blindly support the most abysmal leader this country has ever known despite his complete failure on all fronts… and you call us clones? You’re pathetic. You deserve the devastation this empty suit has brought us.

      Report this comment

      Gonzo  
  • ricckky
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:23pm

    There was no bump—it is all lies and the news media wants it so badly they make it up and skew all the polls–Thank God we are still allowed to vote—It will be a huge landslide in Nov. for honest conservative Americans——We have to start all over again and reverse this commie thinking !!!!!

    Report this comment

    ricckky  
  • dickdastardly
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:23pm

    It’s a marathon and not a sprint. R&R2012!!!!

    Report this comment

    dickdastardly  
  • audiemurphy
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:19pm

    if you listened to rush yesterday he made it clear that Obama is really down about 9 points but the networks are using bogus polls and leaving out the independents who Romney has a 14 point lead with. The lib polling is just trying to make it appear as if it’s close and then watch all hell brake loose when Obama looses.

    Report this comment

    audiemurphy  
    • kaydeebeau
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:31pm

      Rush also reminds us that the left is trying to dispirit us, depress us, make us feel like all is lost and our voting will be futile. I will not be deterred. I can’t wait to vote.

      Remember the turn out for Chick-Fil-A day (that scared the crap out of the left) That turn out is a small sampling of what will happen on Nov 6

      Report this comment

      kaydeebeau  
    • barber2
      Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:41pm

      KAY: Have noticed the ” Obama is the same as Romney..so no need to vote..” comments run regularly here by our Trolls. Same same…

      Report this comment

      barber2  
  • JAMACAMECRAZYMAN
    Posted on September 12, 2012 at 3:18pm

    The only bump BO has is on his head……………..

    Report this comment

    JAMACAMECRAZYMAN  

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