Just in Time for VP Debate: Labor Dept. Reports U.S. Jobless Claims Have Fallen to Four-Year Low (UPDATED)
Watch Thursday’s vice presidential debate live on TheBlaze TV and get instant reaction and analysis immediately after from the “Real News From TheBlaze” team. It all starts at 9pm ET. Get the details here.
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The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted last week to seasonally adjusted 339,000, the lowest level in more than four years, according to new data from the Labor Department.
The agency also said Thursday that weekly applications fell by 30,000 to the fewest since February 2008. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped by 11,500 to 364,000, a six-month low.
“Weekly applications are a proxy for layoffs. They can fluctuate sharply from week to week. If they stay near last week’s level, it would likely signal better hiring ahead,” the Associated Press explains.
“When applications consistently drop below 375,000, it suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate,” the report adds.
Wait a minute, wait a minute: unemployment aid is at its lowest level since 2008? If you’re skeptical of today’s report (or, as some in the media might say, a government data “truther“), you’re not alone.
“This is just getting stupid,” the writers at Zero Hedge seethe. And they may have good reason to doubt the report.
As the Wall Street Journal notes:
… the report may not be as positive as the sharp drop indicates. A Labor Department economist said one large state didn’t report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease.
“Great,” Zero Hedge writes sarcastically, “but what was reported was a headline grabbing number that is just stunning for reelection purposes … The only point to have this print? For 2-3 bulletin talking points at the Vice Presidential debate tonight. Everything else is now noise.”
“Jobless Claims beat by the most since May 2009 and is the lowest since Jan 2008 — the new normal,” the report adds.
Jobless claims (ZH)
The "biggest 3-week drop since Jan 2006"? (ZH)
Revise, revise, revise (ZH)
Final Thought (h/t Zero Hedge): Now that we have all this great jobs data, can we end the Fed’s open-ended, unlimited, $40-billion-a-month bond purchasing program (QE3)? Remember that? Remember when the Fed said QE3 would continue for as long as it took to improve the jobs situation? Well …
UPDATE — CNBC’s Kelly Evansis offers a possible explanation for the decline in applications:
Apols for the confusion here. Looks like all states DID report; one showed a drop instead of expected increase in quarterly refilings.
— Kelly Evans (@Kelly_Evans) October 11, 2012
It IS still the case that one state didn’t process as expected. Also likely we’ll see headline rebound next wk absent typical seas decline.
— Kelly Evans (@Kelly_Evans) October 11, 2012
So, (a) 1 state appears not to have processed normal seasonal workload; (b) seasonal spike didn’t occur; (c) means rebound next wk likely
— Kelly Evans (@Kelly_Evans) October 11, 2012
That seems to be the case RT @peter_eller10 @kelly_evans so will likely have no effect on NFP # next month, throwing 2 weeks out?
— Kelly Evans (@Kelly_Evans) October 11, 2012
Just to be super, super clear: it *does* appear that one state did not process & report its typical seasonal workload. (see a/b/c tweet)
— Kelly Evans (@Kelly_Evans) October 11, 2012
Labor Dept did not estimate what state would have reported (understandably — as it couldn’t know).
— Kelly Evans (@Kelly_Evans) October 11, 2012
Okay, so which state didn’t go through the normal data processing procedures and why? Representatives from the Labor Department have not yet responded to TheBlaze’s request for comment.
UPDATE II — CNBC confirms all states reported in but, as mentioned in the above, one did it a little differently:
The state did report weekly jobless claims but did not process and report its quarterly claims number (when many people have to reapply for benefits for technical reasons as opposed to being newly laid off). As a result, there wasn’t the expected spike in claims that normally happens at the start of the quarter.
It is unclear why that happened or how unusual that is. What is clear is that the expected spike in claims around the start of each quarter was smaller this time than usual. Coupled with the seasonal adjustment (that expected a bigger increase), that pushed down the headline figure.
In other words, the drop of 30,000 last week had more to do with the lack of expected re-filings at the start of the fourth quarter than with any particular improvement in labor market conditions.
That also means that the decline which usually follows the spike won’t be as pronounced this time around, so the headline tally of jobless claims is likely to rebound next week.
[...]
The Labor Department appears to have had little choice in this matter, however; it couldn’t estimate what the one large state would or should have reported. Still, it may have been able to avoid more confusion had it more clearly articulated that in its weekly press release.
Still, it’s puzzling that no one knows for sure which state’s responsible for the decline. Business Insider thinks its California, but they have nothing to support this claim.
Follow Becket Adams (@BecketAdams) on Twitter
The Associated Press contributed to this report. This story has been updated.
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Comments (114)
let us prey
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:35amObumbler wiped out world hunger this morning and he cured a ham.
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Gold Coin & Economic News
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:44amThe jobs numbers look good, but they are fake and Ryan is still going to absolutely destroy Biden in the debate tonight. I can hardly wait:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPKWvP_LUtY
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Detroit paperboy
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:49amWith all these incredible new jobs being created, shouldn’t foodstamp rolls be dropping …………??????? Hmmmmmmmmmm?????????
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Detroit paperboy
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:50amFigures to be revised……..November 7th…..
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Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:52amAlso Obama parted the seas, restored global conditions,banished air polution, developed the clean fusion energy machinery and is proven to again be utterly out of his mind with thes cooked books.
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turkey13
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:02am“Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river.’ – Nikita Khrushive
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HKS
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:06amI think everyone knows by now that any data the government has anything to do with is hogwash and never to be taken seriously.
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RANGER1965
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:15amDon’t count Biden out just yet. Although Ryan is light-years more intelligent than Biden, Debates are rarely won on facts.
There are 2 dangers Ryan needs to watch-out for..
(1) Humble Joe: Biden is good at playing the; “Aw shucks I ain’t all that bright, but I’m a fair man, and know how to put in a hard day’s work.” This “Champion of the Workingman” character will work well especially if Ryan appears to aggressive, or too smart. The contrast has the potential to make Ryan look like a bully, or an out of touch elitist. If Biden goes all smarmy and humble Ryan needs to back off.
(2) Crazy Joe: This is the character that Biden gets in trouble with most of the time. It’s a loud, angry, fed up character that “just cain’t take it no more” This character is about volume, gestures, and endless repetition. If Crazy Joe shows up, Ryan needs to match his aggressiveness with cold incontrovertible facts. Answer none of his accusations, defend nothing.
Remember Debates are about emotions, memes, and zingers. It’s sad but true. In an arena where truth means little, Biden does have some advantages.
Ryan needs to be mindful of this.
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Evileye
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:24amReal Numbers?
Does anyone really believe these numbers?
Day after the presidential debate out come’s astounding Numbers and Obumbler Has his teleprompter
already loaded with talking points. Now we see new number the day of lying Biden Debate.
of course they left out a major State( Had to be George Bush fault).
Biden remind me of a talking toy programed to Babble.(with the spring wound to tight)
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fastfacts
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:07pmDIRTY TRICKS HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP UP BEFORE THE ELECTION.
Have you seen James O’Keefe’s new undercover video on Obama campaign pushing voter fraud. Simply amazing, here is one of the videos, (#2 of 2): http://www.thedailycandidate.com/video/2012/oct/okeefe_voter_fraud2.html
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BlazingBlaze
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 1:32pmAs far as the “one state”, my prediction is it is either New York, Illinois, or California. My Reasons:
1) Those states are big enough to be more than a blip on the chart, and
2) Those states are controlled by the DNC machine, and
3) Those are the only states to which the media would give a pass to and not investigate.
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Popp40
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 1:38pm@ snowleapord, you forgot to mention that he also ushered in world peace (and Sharia Law)!
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righthanddrive
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 5:11pmSo my question is will Benny B dump QE3 as someone here commented. If no, then these numbers are a complete fake. And in 2008 voters thought they had elected the smartest man in the history of the USA.
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Verceofreason
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:33amI guess Welch will be coming out of his crypt.
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Gonzo
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:47amGood morning crap weasel.
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contkmi
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:58amOf course, you have nothing of value to add to the conversation. Care to comment on the actual subject without using talking points provided by Kos or Huffpo?
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AvengerK
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:22amAnd of course VERCYPERCY…you’re fine with an incomplete report because “one large state” didn’t report it’s numbers? If it favoured Romney you’d be demanding an audience with the BLS the same way Axelrod demanded an audience with Gallup to discuss their “methodology” and “VOILA”…Obama’s poll numbers improved.
There IS NOTHING to demonstrate a pronounced improvement in hiring and the economy VERCYPERCY. Last week’s numbers showed that most of the jobs the BLS reported in the miraculous jobs number were part-time and home jobs. Now this week we have another miraculous number. Meanwhile manufacturing jobs have been evaporating for months.
The housing report is just as dismal, new construction is flatlined all that’s happening is more foreclosed homes are being sold..and it’s mostly investors buying them not homeowners. The housing market is upside down you idiot.
You tell me sunshine…part time jobs and home jobs are signs of a roaring economy to you? Seriously?
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AvengerK
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:24amYour concern for Welsch is overwhelming VERCYPERCY…now how about some concern for Ambassador Stevens?
The embassy in Vienna can get $100K and a fleet of Chevy Volts but the embassy in Benghazi can get effed right?
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Anonymous T. Irrelevant
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:30amI don’t think he would get paid if he did that.
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michael48
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 11:35amtidbits of stupidity from verce as he crawls from beneathe his shovel ready bridge….struts over to soup line for morning lemming chow and craps his already full pink panties…priceless…typical dem-wit…
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Verceofreason
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:00pmMaybe the Republicans shouldn’t have cut funds for more security.
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jackal
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:52pmWe hired 4 Pt’ers at my place in the last month because the system in play said to.The bad part is that the hours to operate the store remained the same arrghh! So we now have pt’ers who have been with us awhile getting upset they now go from 25-32 hrs a week to 15hrs.Yep we hired but the same dough in payroll is going out the door.The economy gets zilch!!!!!!!!!!!
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DarkJello
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 1:31pmWhy do you think democrats are saviors of this planet?
It is weird that you forgot they are politicians too… Curious and such.
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BlazingBlaze
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 1:41pmIf you all stop feeding the Trolls, eventually they shrivel up and die. They only live on the responses you feed them. So stop going down into their mother’s basement and giving them Twinkies, ok? Thanks.
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OIF3survivor
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 7:26pmHey hit and run Verce:
I wish I could even say that wasa nice try, how about the FACT that he requested more security immediately leading up to the attack, it was denied but then his hazardous duty pay was increased?
The reality is that Ambassador Steven’s blood is on the hands of the same administration officials who knew he felt a credible threat was imminent and denied him the security he requested, meanwhile sending or at least allowing him to travel to one of the most dangerous cities in North Africa. He should have been nowhere outside of his embassy in Tripoli on 9/11 and sure as hell not in Benghazi. I can tell you from my own experience in convoy security in Iraq (OIF 3) we never went anywhere near places like Sadr City and we had multiple crew serve weapons, grenades, M16 A2′s, SAWs and such in better than half platoon strength EVERY time we went outside the wire.
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OIF3survivor
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 7:27pmhit-and-run verce:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/state-dept-agrees-gop-libya-attack-article-1.1179074
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saneromeo
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:32amI keep thinking of Joe Wilson this week…He warned us way back when, and was demonized, and now look…
http://saneromeo.wordpress.com/
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Thundermeister
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:31amIsn’t it convenient that the numbers are dropping just prior to the election?,
Because no President since FDR has ever been re-elected when unemployment was at, or above 8%.
Although I’m sure there is nothing to see here… move along.
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Rock_Thrower
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:30amIf you believe unemployment is lower then you most likely still believe a movie is responsible for killing our ambassador and the other 3 Americans.
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Detroit paperboy
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:28amAnd GM just announced they will be opening 150 new assembly plants, in Florida , mich, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania………..right…
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Gonzo
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:25amI guess Michelle Malkin hit the nail on the head when she labeled them a den of “Lying liars and crap weasels”.
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drattastic
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:40amThat is far to kind . They are a bunch of #@^& (*^##$…..&%$@%*(>…..lying ^%$#&**%9 son of *^$&$@..mother&$##@^%$^ heads…not to mention coc&%$#^%#679@cheating*^$#&^%*((&*%#$#@heads …whew… man I feel better.
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contkmi
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:58amDrat, I think that was way too kind. Mind trying again, this time with more feeling?
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BODYBAG
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:58amYup. Doesnt specify which large state was left out —– Florida? Texas? California?
I cant understand why people arent revolting on the streets over being lied to
about EVERYTHING. Libya, unemployment, economy, etc.
Kind of makes one wonder about the whole birth certificate, SS# deal
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Jenasus
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:24amPigs are flying all over Washington DC and Obama’s nose is getting longer by the day and Obama’s pants on fire too.
QE3 will cause the next bubble that will destroy the value of the dollar and the world currencies will collapse so the globalists of the Luciferian New World Order will convert to a one world currency followed by the Luciferian New World Order which will back fire because the people in America and the world are fed up with the FED and our corrupt government.
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THE_END_IS_NEAR
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:24ami’m high and i’m callin b.s.
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OniKaze
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:37amThat caused a belly laugh…… Thanks…
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Jenasus
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:38amI wish I was high. Pass that joint over here so I can get high too.
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Oneirishman
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 4:37pmHey you guys are wearing the same avatar, I must be high.
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Tigress1
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:22amWHICH large state didn’t report it’s numbers? This shouldn’t be that hard to learn. If it’s California, New York, or Illinois, then we KNOW all the numbers are fudged.
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Lauralga
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:33amI think the state is California, it’s the largest (next to Texas); hopefully they will revise next week and that number will be higher again. Amazing how after 3 1/2 years; suddenly the numbers are falling; the end must be near.
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Tigress1
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:45amLauralga, yet ANOTHER coverup.
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Popp40
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 1:48pmThe numbers will be revised but the MSM won’t report on it. They have already done what they needed to do and that was to get the lie out to the uninformed and the stupid. Plus it gives those that follow Obama blindly (one can say like followers in a cult) will have talking points th go around and grand stand on even though they are wrong, but liberals don’t listen to facts.
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starman70
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:21amIf you believe this, I have a mile of oceanfront beachside property in Nevada I’ll sell if the price is $5 million pre acre or more!
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Silversmith
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:20amAnyone who buys this is just high.
Silversmith
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Garman1
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:20amThe other large state will automagically be slipped under the radar next week as a revision–however, just in time for Romney to bring up in the final debate. Zero trust in the reporting.
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13th Imam
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:20amConnecticut
Unemployment rate 9%
NINE PERCENT and rising.
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floridareader
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:19amThose 30,000 “less” unemployment claims are another huge lie from this administration. The report indicates that A BIG STATE didn’t report its numbers. What state? The report doesn’t say.
The cynicism and the open lies of this administration are outrageous.
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MiCurmudgeon
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:18amHow convienient that one “large” State just “HAPPENED” to fail to submit data this week. Lying and cheating are the main focus of the Oblamer re-election thugs. Thank God Americans are getting smarter and won’t be fooled by their sheenanigans.
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ricckky
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:18amHe is a LIAR, LIAR, LIAR, LIAR, LIAR, LIAR, LIAR, PHONY LIAR, STUPID LIAR, DISGRACED LIAR, AND A LIAR!!!!!–BTW DID I SAY HE IS A LIAR—:)
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SimpleTruths
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:29amIf you’re talking about Romney/Ryan then I agree with you.
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Fubared
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:38amSimpleton-
Where do you get your talking points from? Choom later in the day, you seem confused.
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HKS
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:18amWell now who would have thought that liberal magic math would come up with something like that. By the way, it’s the same math they use on Romney’s economic plan. It’s miracle math, it will show you whatever you want it to show.
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Al J Zira
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:17amI’m sure the hiring at this time of year is for the upcoming holiday season. It’s good to know all those high paying jobs are there for the American people to make a living and feed families. Better yet knowing those jobs are long lasting and lead to advancements not found in most other industries.
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13th Imam
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:30am“Fries with that?”
or “What color bow would you like to put on that gift?”
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ColoradoMaverick
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:10amAmericans have given up looking for work. With Obama dropping the work requirement and pushing everyone to happily accept food stamps, welfare and even disability, people have given up on work because they can do better financially just going on welfare and making tax free income selling drugs or panhandling on street corners. Wake up stupid people!
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beekeeper
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:08am“one large state didn’t report some quarterly figures.â€
Priceless. What’s “one large state” between friends?
Any chance there’s about 50K new/initial jobless claims in that “one large state”?
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lexington_green
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:23amthe arrogance is unbelievable. they are counting on the stupidity of the american people. just hope they underestimated undecided voters. now if we could just keep illegals from voting two or three times…
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ricckky
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:06amCook the books again?–no one cares any more it is just lies and rhetoric!!!! The American people have finally wised up–Thank God!!!–Good luck LIAR-N-CHIEF—you are slime and America knows it!!!
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thibx
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:21amheard on fox business 1 state has been left off their report. sounds like they are up to their same old tricks.
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SREGN
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:04amAnd the Labor Department’s boss is? BHO, The Father Of Lies. Watch for the adjusted number, after the election.
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Tri-ox
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:04amLOL – can I have ketchup with my COOKED NUMBERS?
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Gonzo
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:02amKey words : seasonally adjusted.
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beekeeper
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:09amSelectively included – they only counted 49/50ths of the country.
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Verceofreason
Posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:03pmAs a freelancer, I know for a fact work picks up after everyone’s back from Summer vacations and the Jewish holidays of September are over.
This is no surprise to the educated.
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