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Romney Beating Obama in Another Way You Might Not Have Thought About

Oct. 12, 2012 2:35pm Guest Post

As the vice presidential debate approaches, stocks that could fare better with a Republican in the White House continue to bounce, just as Mitt Romney has done in the polls.

The move up in Republican-friendly stocks has been apparent since the presidential debate. President Barack Obama’s weak performance chiseled away his lead in key polls, and the industries that Democrats favor have also been sliding.

The latest polls show a dead heat, with Romney gaining a slight edge. Gallup’s poll of likely voters shows the candidate tied at 48 percent each.

“Certainly looking at a lot of key industries, the ones most aligned with the Republicans, like coal, have been doing phenomenally well. HMOs have been doing well,” said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

CNBC created its own Obama and Romney portfolios, compiled from multiple sources. As of Wednesday, those portfolios showed a similar trend, with the Romney portfolio gaining 0.7 percent since the presidential debate, and the Obama stock portfolio down 2.7 percent in the past week.

Obama’s portfolio has since improved with a 5-percent jump in First Solar, and Romney’s portfolio also rose Thursday, powered by coal stocks.

LPL’s election index, released Thursday morning, shows the first significant move higher in the Republicans’ favor since June. The relative strength index, run on a weekly basis, has been showing gains in Democratic sectors, particularly since the Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act in June.

But last week’s debate was a clear turning point. Republican-favored sectors could continue to gain as the election gets closer. “I would expect a shift but probably not a reversal of all the gains we’ve seen for all the Democratic sectors,” Kleintop said.

Thursday’s 9 p.m. ET vice presidential debate is the only one between Vice President Joseph Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. The pressure is on Biden to win back some of President Obama’s prior edge, lost after the last debate.

“Homebuilders are down about 5.5 percent since then. We have the diagnostic labs, health-care services companies down over two percent. We’ve seen some of the more Obama-favored industries underperforming the market. The market’s down about 1 percent since then, and the hospitals, health care facilities are down about 5 percent,” Kleintop said in an interview Wednesday.

LPL’s Democrat-favored industries include health care facilities, food and staples retailing, gas utilities, health care services, life sciences tools and services, construction materials, homebuilding and construction and farm equipment. The GOP portfolio includes coal and consumable fuels, diversified financial services, oil and gas exploration, oil and gas drilling, managed care, electric utilities, specialty retail and telecommunications services.

In CNBC’s Romney portfolio, Arch Coal and Peabody Coal are both up about 20 percent since the debate. There could be other factors behind the move, including a 6 percent jump in natural gas prices this week alone. But Republicans are seen as bigger supporters of the coal industry, and Romney mentioned coal during the debate. Eagle Rock, a company involved in oil and gas storage, is up more than 6 percent since the debate.

On the Obama list, Healthsouth was down 7 percent since the debate, and HCA Holdings is down 5 percent. Vanguard Health Systems is down about 7 percent, and DR Hortonis down 7 percent.

Romney is viewed as a bigger booster of oil and gas “fracking,” or hydraulic fracturing, even though that industry has surged during the Obama years.

“I wouldn’t say he’s against it,” said Kleintop. “I would say Republicans are more for it.”

He said Republicans would probably be easier on regulation while the Obama Administration is more likely to develop a national regulatory framework on the state-regulated industry.

Wells Fargo Securities did its own study of how the election outcomes would impact stocks it follows.

CNBC: Romney Stocks Beating Obama Stocks

(AP)

“Not surprisingly, Governor Romney’s plans to boost domestic fossil fuel production are popular with the oil and gas sector and President Obama’s Affordable Health Care Act is generally viewed as a plus for the healthcare sector. A split executive branch versus Congress will produce more of the same — gridlock,” Wells Fargo analysts wrote in a recent note.

Some of the industries that Wells Fargo analysts said could be hurt if the president were re-elected include master limited partnerships, which might be hurt by tax law changes since the Democrats may favor broad tax reform. They also expect regulatory costs, under Democrats, to rise for the materials, energy, financial and industrial sectors.

Materials companies, however, could benefit from increased infrastructure spending under President Obama, and they expect he would continue to favor wind energy and ethanol with special tax breaks to promote activity.

The Wells Fargo analysts also note that Democrats might support housing more but could impose more environmental regulation on construction. Republicans could be more negative for the sector, due to less government support for the industry and because of a firmer stance on immigration, which means less household formation.

Kleintop said the market appears to be pricing in a “status-quo” election, with a Democratic White House and Senate and Republican House, but the market could see a strong rally post-election if the Republicans sweep. Republicans holding both houses of Congress with Obama retaining the White House could be problematic, he said.

“I think the market continues to believe there will be a compromise. It’s going to be a close election. It’s going to prompt both sides to come together and avert the fiscal cliff,” said Kleintop of the actions Congress needs to take on expiring tax cuts and the onset of automatic spending cuts Jan. 1. “While I do think we are going to get a deal done, it’s not going to be easy.”

He expects the market to be volatile until at least through the election, and then as the “fiscal cliff” is addressed.

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Comments (50)

Donna Rigby
Posted on October 14, 2012 at 12:17am
I must admit, I prayed for God to give Romney the words in the first debate. He did and it was very successful. I am praying again for the next one. We cannot endure four more years of this president. They have made it quite evident that he will have no restrictions in another term. We won’t be able to recognize our country if he stays in. I am honestly terrified at the thought. The more I get to know Mitt Romney, the more I trust and like him. We must take care of this now, it will be too late if we don’t.

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- profile-two
  Posted on October 14, 2012 at 8:51am
  I agree 100% This president scares me to death……Already the country has changed in a bad way with all the PC garbage. But 4 more years and we will be to the Left of Cuba and the former
  Soviet Union.
  
  Report this comment
- Magyar
  Posted on October 14, 2012 at 6:37pm
  @Donna…Hey girl, I did too—let’s keep praying!
  
  Report this comment
- spirited
  Posted on October 14, 2012 at 9:58pm
  Here, here –and amen!
  
  >Let’s keep vigil.
  
  Report this comment
jucent
Posted on October 13, 2012 at 5:20pm
Do we need clowns like Bush and Romney to responsibly decide upon our future?

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- Cosmos102
  Posted on October 13, 2012 at 9:44pm
  @JUCENT
  
  I like your sense of humor. Of course you meant Obama and the Clintons.
  
  Report this comment
- kat747
  Posted on October 14, 2012 at 3:55pm
  Yes
  Yes
  and
  Yes
  Please God, GIVE US THE CLOWNS
  We cannot stand the liers, liberals, marxists, communists, progressives, race baters, and
  ANTI-AMERICANS anymore.
  
  Report this comment
chucksue351
Posted on October 13, 2012 at 6:40am
the nation could solve the energy crisis overnight, just tap the energy of the obama admin spinning their wheels

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- R.A. Bullseye
  Posted on October 13, 2012 at 8:56pm
  amen.
  
  Report this comment
berlet98
Posted on October 13, 2012 at 1:54am
Obamatrocities

Dictionary.com’s definition of “atrocity” as “behaviour or an action that is wicked or ruthless” falls far short of a realistic explanation of the meaning of the word.

Regrettably, Dictionary.com doesn’t define obamatrocities either.

“Atrocity” can also refer to hideous monstrosities, an extension of wickedness and ruthlessness and can apply to relatively minor wicked behavior or to truly monstrous ruthlessness.

Sometimes it’s difficult to distinguish between the two when it comes to obamatrocities.

For example, was it a minor or major atrocity for Harvard Law student Obama to say in 1991 that it’s acceptable to restrict free speech in the interests of protecting minority rights?

Was it a minor or major obamatrocity for then-State Senator Obama to refer in 2004 to a living fetus as a “potential life” when pre-born babies have all their necessary human parts and need only to be born?

Was it a minor or major obamatrocity for President Obama to say in Virginia earlier this month that “We don’t believe anybody is entitled to success in this country” when that statement contradicted everything Americans have long held true?

Was it minor or major that Pat Smith, the mother of Sean Smith, one of Obama’s four “bumps in the road” murdered by terrorists in Benghazi a month ago, told Anderson Cooper that she’s still waiting for an explanation of why her son is dead after being promised answers by everyon

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jtv
Posted on October 13, 2012 at 1:51am
This country will begin to turn around the minute people know that Obama is going to be gone! Obama is an anti-American cancer that is killing this country in every way. He has to go!

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ArmedAndReallyPissed
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 10:48pm
POLLS ! : Nothing more than ALTERED numbers at the hands of those who have the fingertips of their shackled wrists on the buttons of the scoreboard while their pants are down around their ankles. Most of America is educated, smart & has a great sense of right and wrong. Sometimes this sense comes too late, but it will not be this year. It will not be this Election. The Traitor Obama will lose. The margin will not matter. There is hope for recovery and restoration. After we remove the Traitor and his filth from OUR White House, we can concentrate on how to remove the Traitors friends, the Diaper Head Brotherhood, from OUR lands. THAT will be the major task that will take DECADES to accomplish. God Bless America.
Signed AARP ( ArmedAndReallyPissed )

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- kat747
  Posted on October 14, 2012 at 4:04pm
  Have to get ahold of that movie that the alQuada hate so much and flood the US market with it…play it on tv every night of the week.
  Those lying terrorists should be somewhere on the list under roadkill to be used as target practice.
  If “it” wins this election, I will know forevermore that these elections are “FIXED”.
  
  Report this comment
liljoe62
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 10:35pm
The main problem was, when Ryan started on a subject, (Joe Biteme) would interrupt and make it impossible for Ryan to complete his thought! That was the regimes plan from the beginning! If Romney or Ryan are NOT allowed to tell the truth, it will be best for the Fecal Blizzard Spewing Dems! The Dems CANT run on their record, so if the record CANT get espoused, they feel its in their best interest! But I believe that the American people will see right through their plan, and fire them come November! Biteme, made a laughing stock of the presidency, and the respect the office deserves!

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Claudius
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 5:42pm
Brilliant! Stocks are polls that can’t oversample the Democrats.

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- damon_k
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 6:27pm
  The only reason stocks are up is the hundred of billions of dollars that Bernanke is printing and dumping into the market. Read political commentary at: http://smallcraftadvisorychronicles.blogspot.com/
  
  Report this comment
- 2MINUTESTOMIDNIGHT
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 6:48pm
  DAMON: Have you ever considered actually purchasing some advertising space instead of mooching off The Blaze?
  
  Report this comment
BODYBAG
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 5:16pm
“Hatred is the basis of Communism.”
~ Vladimir Lenin – 1923

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- American Soldier (Separated)
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 5:51pm
  I thought the tag line was going to be “He’s actually MORE of a socialist!”
  
  Report this comment
blackyb
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 5:01pm
That gov. in NC received some 56 million in money for educational indoctrination. That woman needs to be voted out as soon. I believe she is going to retire anyway. She is about a duffas.

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- BODYBAG
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 5:14pm
  That would be Beverly Purdue. She has declined to run for re-election.
  Bev was the idiot who went public with the statement about “suspending
  elections” so Dems could get what they wanted passed.
  
  Pat McCrory is trying to take her place.
  Look up Pat in the dictionary and you’ll see his photo beside the
  definition of RINO.
  
  Report this comment
blackyb
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:47pm
Obama looks afraid in the picture above. He is in over his head without his teleprompter. He is nothing but a Communist agitator at heart.

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blackyb
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:44pm
It makes no difference what the polls say, Eric Holder will uphold voter fraud. They intend to stay in. They have gone too far not to. Those votes should be scruitinized with a “fine toothed comb.”

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Melvin Spittle
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:30pm
Here is InTrade current election winner stock prices:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

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Small World
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:30pm
@Floridareader very powerful video. Amen!

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politicianssuck
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:29pm
hmmm… the hidden message here to me is the whole insider trading problem we have with our elected officials. Repub. and Democrats.
Bunch o’ filthy swine

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floridareader
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:11pm
sharing this video
http://www.westernjournalism.com/powerful-video-from-a-former-obama-supporter/

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The-Monk
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:02pm
I heard that Todd Schnitt has coined the phrase, “What do you call a drunk uncle… a Druncle”.

LOL… That’s Joe for ya…. a “druncle”.

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term limits for congress
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:54pm
I wonder how much $$ the AARP will make if BHO is re-elected? I was screaming at my TV every time Biden mentioned that AMA and AARP were for obamacare – Ryan should have shut that down hard.

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- 2MINUTESTOMIDNIGHT
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:55pm
  Ryan missed several opportunities to set Biden straight. The AARP comments were among those lost opportunities.
  
  Report this comment
- SocialistSlayer
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:34pm
  The truth is AARP is for obama care. They are nothing more than an Insurance Broker that stands to make Billions of Dollars off of Communist obama’s Tax Care plan. The AARP is nothing but a bunch of Leeches and I will never join that Liberal Communist Organization!
  
  Report this comment
- 762x51
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:59pm
  Socialistslayer – Damn right. NEVER join AARP!
  
  Somebody is make big bucks off of seniors membership dues. I laugh in their face whenever they solicit me and do everything I can to cost them money with no intentions of ever joining..
  
  Report this comment
- blackyb
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 5:05pm
  The AARP is a tool for the Democrats. They always have been. They offer the seniors nothing but things they know most of them will not use. They are in with various insurance companies, etc. They have supported directly and/or indirectly the left since their inception.
  
  Report this comment
HOOT_OWL
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:53pm
What are you kidding me.. No Smith &Wesson or Colt or any of the other firearm manufacturer .? They have to have had there biggest 4 year run boom in history..!…I guess it was to obvious ..Anyway ..we all know the very same guy responsible for these sales, is also the very same guy that will undoubtedly close sales to the public .Causing their stocks to tank..! If he gets re-elected… I can here it now …sell, sell ,sell….Just saying what everyone else is thinking..!

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SREGN
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:53pm
When R&R win and take the economic parking brake off, the market is going to shoot up like nobody’s business.

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- SocialistSlayer
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:35pm
  Ready for takeoff !
  
  Report this comment
- justangry
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:38pm
  That’s extremely optimistic if not naive.
  
  Report this comment
Detroit paperboy
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:21pm
Obama lied and chris Stevens died……………blame Bush.

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- MeteoricLimbo
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:55pm
  Blame the incompetent Intel community, Joe did. Then He says we that same have “Intel” in Iran….spooky
  
  Report this comment
progressiveslayer
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 2:46pm
He said Republicans would probably be easier on regulation while the Obama Administration is more likely to develop a national regulatory framework on the state-regulated industry.

The Marxist mulatto will regulate the coal industry out of business if he’s allowed to keep his job.
Fortunately for us real Americans we won’t have to worry about that because he’ll be fired,him and his drunken idiot Joey.

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- U.N.hater
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:06pm
  This is why our country is so f–ked up. Love’ing commie’s aint going to work. I will compromise NONE of my freedoms or libertys. Go f–http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/10/12/Bizarre-MUST-SEE-Kid-Rock-Tells-Sean-Penn-Fking-Suck-It-Commie-in-Ad-to-Not-Let-Politics-Divide-Usk yourself kid rock and penn……….
  
  Report this comment
- Anonymous T. Irrelevant
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:20pm
  Obama as much said he would bankrupt them out of business during his last campaign. I’m still not sure why so many people were awed by him and voted or him. I saw right through the BS.
  
  Report this comment
- QuincySmith
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:03pm
  Anonymous T. Irrelevant;
  
  Before the 2008 election, I told my sister in law that everyone knew oblama wanted to be elected king, but I didn’t understand why he wanted to rule a third-world country.
  
  Report this comment
- blackyb
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 4:45pm
  It will be up to the coal states to vote him out.
  
  Report this comment
RayOne
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 2:46pm
Ryan was a gentleman, Biden was other than someone than the person people want a heartbeat from the big chair.
As the day winds down and the distractions heat up, eye candy and mean old coot are reflective of this administration. The national trust in Washington D.C. leadership has suffered. Ryan was respectful and unable to respond. The moderator made the event, the View. If the V.P. debate was about a Wonk vs the Mean Old Coot, it was successful.

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- AvengerK
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:24pm
  RAYONE…make no mistake..Biden was instructed to behave like this. Compare his performance against Palin in 2008. Very different demeanour. Look…even pundits that have known Biden for years were taken aback by his behaviour this is very telling.
  
  Biden was told to unsettle Ryan, to interrupt, to laugh and provoke in order to usettle Ryan and get a reaction out of him that would look bad on television. Imagine if Ryan had taken the bait and opened up on Biden? The public would say “like him or not..you don’t talk to the Vice President like that” and harden against the Romeny/Ryan ticket for it.
  Ryan was told to watch for it, stay cool, get the stats out and just hit a single, let the boss hit the homeruns against Obama himself on Tuesday. As it turned out…Biden couldn’t help himself and lied about the Benghazi situation.
  Ryan was the tactician who’s stragegy paid the biggest dividends. All Biden did was encourage the base he didn’t win the independents who likely soured on his performance and have been convinced to turn to Romney by it.
  
  Report this comment
- Anonymous T. Irrelevant
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:40pm
  I am wondering what Obama’s strategy will be, on Tuesday. Aggressive, loud, fact-cruncher or just more apathy?
  
  Report this comment
- 2MINUTESTOMIDNIGHT
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 3:54pm
  There is no question that Biden was a horse’s ass last night; however, Ryan missed a lot of opportunities. If BHO/POS behaves like Biden on Tuesday, Romney will set him in his place. Romney will make up for Ryan’s debate inexperience.
  
  Report this comment
watashbuddyfriend
Posted on October 12, 2012 at 2:44pm
When did Obama say: “Let’s not look backwards and dwell on my past.
Instead, let’s look backwards and dwell on Romney’s past?”

Remember, Benjamin Franklin said: “He that is good at making excuses is seldom good for anything else.”

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- blackyb
  Posted on October 12, 2012 at 5:03pm
  Biden is a major embarrassment to everyone. Obama can pick ‘em, can’t he? Then again he wanted someone stupider than himself so he could look better.
  
  Report this comment

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