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October Surprise: Unemployment Aid Surges to Four-Month High

Oct. 18, 2012 9:24am Becket Adams

Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months. The increase represents a marked departure from the previous week’s supposed drop.

Both swings were largely due to “technical factors,” as the Associated Press puts it.

“Technical factors”?

“So much for last week’s aberration initial claims print of 339K (revised higher of course to 342K),” Zero Hedge reports. “With expectations of an increase to 365K, the DOL [Department of Labor] just came out with a whopper of a miss, the largest in three months, at 388K, an increase of 46K in one week, which was also the highest print in [four] months.”

Also, remember last week when everyone was trying to figure out which state reported their unemployment figures differently? At the time, Business Insider accused California of being responsible for the “timely” decrease (remember, the numbers did drop right before the debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan). And although California officials firmly denied these charges, some still believe they are responsible for last week’s aberration.

“Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008. This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week [emphasis added],” the AP notes.

But despite this “significant increase,” Zero Hedge dismisses Business Insider’s unsubstantiated Golden State claim: “[N]o, last week’s print was not due to California, which the DOL reported just decreased by 4,979 in the week ended Oct 6, not the required 49K.”

Courtesy ZH

California conspiracies aside, what’s worse than the fact that we still don’t know which state is responsible for last week’s supposed decrease is the fact that no one seems to know.

A department spokesman said the seasonally adjusted numbers are being distorted by “an issue of timing” as well as “state-level administrative issues.”

Anyway, here’s a chart showing how long we now gone without “one single downward adjustment in the claims number” [via ZH & John Lohman]:

In other similarly dreary news, growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, down from 2 percent in the previous quarter. Most economists predict growth staying at or below 2 percent in the second half of the year.

Oh, yeah, almost forgot, the number of those on Extended Benefits has once again started to rise, after dropping to “virtually [zero] following expiration of state benefits,” the Hedge notes.

In the words of one of our favorite movies: “Up is down, black is white.”

Follow Becket Adams (@BecketAdams) on Twitter

The Associated Press contributed to this report. Front page photo courtesy the AP. This story has been updated.

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Comments (65)

KeithOlberdink
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 11:07am
The Supreme Charismatic should go on “The View” and tell his troubles to Whoopi and Behar. Maybe The Supreme Charismatic could dance with Whoopi And Behar on live T.V. Maybe that will help President Failure Teleprompter to reconnect. LOL

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- bobdiamond
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 12:40pm
  They must have found those California claims they didn’t count last week. Read political commentary at: http://smallcraftadvisorychronicles.blogspot.com/
  
  Report this comment
- turkey13
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 7:51pm
  Maybe the View can hire a bunch of the unemployed and reduce the 7.8% to 6.8%.I read where Obama has 50 $ billion left over in one of his stashes. Now would be a good time to use it to buy the presidency.
  
  Report this comment
- dmerwin
  Posted on October 19, 2012 at 11:34am
  We KNEW those numbers were incorrect and so did the administration. What do you call someone that knowingly uses false numbers to make themselves look better? Lying liberals.
  
  Report this comment
scrudge
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 11:01am
Ah Yes….. pack your bags oBOZO…. YOU ARE ON YOUR WAY OUT

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listeninginVT
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:57am
so where is the new unemployment number? % ?

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- docvet
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 12:21pm
  We won’t see that until, Oh, say, umm, Nov 7th or later.
  
  Report this comment
- marvlus
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 1:11pm
  I think the next one comes out on Nov. 2.
  
  Report this comment
floridareader
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:44am
In Obama’s mind and reasoning this is really good: just like gas prices, the higher the claims, the better the economy.

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- drattastic
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 11:01am
  Yup and in all the minds of obama’s mindless voters you hear air whistling through their ears.
  
  Report this comment
Chromo200
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:43am
I’ve been reading through these comments and find ETCHASKETCH may have made his quota for his daily payment from the Obama Campaign.

We shall see the difference between Romney and Obama.. We use to trust the gov’t numbers now at least in the last 4 years we don’t. lie after lie takes it toll on people.

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TRILO
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:33am
What a surprise. The government has been lying to us for decades. They continually manipulate the numbers to make the people think all is well is fantasy land. The unemployment numbers were changed years ago to drop those who are no longer looking for work…why, lower unemployment. They manipulate the inflation numbers, to keep from automatically raising Social Security benefits that are automatically tied to inflation rates.

If anyone thinks the lies will stop with Romney you will be sadly mistaken. Our government wants to give the illusion of prosperity and freedom no matter who is in charge. Like Jack Nicholson said in his famous movie line, the American people can not handle the truth.

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- woodyee
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:43am
  We’re less than 3 weeks from the election – what is your suggestion?
  
  Report this comment
woodyee
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:32am
All one has to do is read the chart above, to conclude “Who the f$%^ said the recession was over?!?”

AH! I just caught myself – I get it! Once the lie has been repeated over and over again, I’m supposed to believe it: I guess I just forgot the rule – sorry!

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lisa2994
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:27am
@chucksue351 I thought that was pretty obvious? But Romney/Ryan..

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Ben__Franklin
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:24am
Well now, who on The Blaze would have thought…. The numbers last week were a big joke. Even the Obama Administration knew they were a joke or you would have heard Dear Leader pointing at them on every speech he made last week.

Now who is putting money on the end of the month numbers being even higher than August? I will even put money that in November the October numbers will be revised again even higher than the end of month numbers.

So that 0.40 point drop in the unemployment number came from where again?……I mean we can believe this Administration 100% that they did not doctor the numbers….Lol, they are a bunch of Lying Liars and Crap Weasels.

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Bobby D
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:18am
My guess is if the election could be honest, the unemployed, alone, could send Romney/Ryan to 1600 Penn. Ave.

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elosogrande
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:06am
Please! They lied last week, in an effort to counter Obama’s failures in the first debate.
\It’s that simple – they lied. Tell everyone you know!

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Ducky657
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:58am
Not a time to be taking victory laps for anyone–we are in trouble and unless we change directions you will see the number go through the roof next year! I don’t care what you think about Governor Romney but I remember another Governor thirty-two years ago who was able to lift us out of the doldrums and brought back America. He is not Ronald Reagan but he also is not Barack Obama. If you really feel you have to vote for a third party candidate remember this–a vote for anyone but Mitt Romney is the same as a vote for Barack Obama. Without Ross Perot Bill Clinton would never have been President. I know you want to make a statement but to quote a hopefully soon to be out of work Vice President, “This is deadly serious!” If you believe wasting your vote on someone who has no chance of being elected to re-elect someone who will continue ignore the laws of this land and take us deeper in debt God help you! Mitt Romney is not perfect but on his worst day he is head and shoulders above BHO!

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woodyee
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:50am
“Both swings were largely due to “technical factors,” as the Associated Press puts it.”

Woodyee translator says “Erah, we didn’t know, uh, erah, how to spin it.”

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barber2
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:50am
Let’s see who the Obama crowd will blame on this …. we’ve grown accustomed to their behavior…

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- SamIamTwo
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:54am
  They’ll blame BLS.GOV no doubt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  
  Report this comment
noslave
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:50am
Now you see how the obama office of dis-information works !

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dublinthewagons
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:48am
@etchascratch after the blow-out election and Romney wins. You will have to get a job.
Look in the want adds under “wanted- worthless POS full time idiot”

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- EtchASketch
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:02am
  I do have a job.
  
  And you can’t even spell “ad” correctly. Moron.
- M13
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:30am
  Etch I wouldn’t call cleaning your mom’s toilet in the basement work.
  
  Report this comment
progressiveslayer
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:42am
. This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week [emphasis added],” the AP notes. That delay was very convenient for the regime huh weird how that happens. Look the smiling jackal fooled the gullible in 08 and the country’s gone to hell because a skinny Marxist POS heathen fraud bastard has a dream of ending the middle class,we get it. Now it’s time for real American’s to be heard and the Marxist pig and his drunken idiot will hear loud and clear, YOU”RE FIRED.

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lisa2994
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:38am
@EtchASketch I don’t worry much about polls. All you have to do is look at the people that go to the Romney rallies. I know the truth seems to hurt you folks but just deal with it because we are not taking this anymore!

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- chucksue351
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:52am
  who are you for anyway
  
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SamIamTwo
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:37am
I wonder who gave California an extension to report their numbers late…any guesses.

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lisa2994
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:36am
@EtchASketch We all want to see those unemployment numbers go down for the sake of the american people and for that matter everyone else around the world. But when there is deception that is when people get frustrated. Let’s put the real numbers out there no matter if a conservative or democrat is in office and include everyone that is not on unemployment or just stopped looking. That is where the true numbers are! You just don’t want to and will not see truth!

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- Ben__Franklin
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:18am
  Lol, For Etchey, Truth has nothing to do with it.
  
  Report this comment
Gary_K
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:35am
I believe nothing this government, under the communist regime, says….nothing!

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dublinthewagons
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:33am
They can’t hide the truth very long. Obama lies will find a way to spin this.

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- SamIamTwo
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:44am
  But they can’t keep their lies straight. LOL It “evolves”, no doubt.
  
  Report this comment
Apple Bite
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:32am
Fu! Your master in Hades expects to see you soon, lying liberal hacks!

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EtchASketch
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:30am
Here’s something I’ve noticed lately: when a negative labor statistic comes out, conservatives point to it as “proof.” When the same agency (BLS) releases positive statistics, conservatives point to it as “bogus.” Which is it, eh?

Same with polls. Gallup releases a poll that shows Obama leading, conservative gas bags all shout “this poll is biased!” Gallup releases a poll that shows Romney leading, conservative gas bags shout “look at this poll, it’s proof!”

Pick a story and stick with it. You’re flopping around like Romney.

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- dublinthewagons
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:36am
  @etchasketch: your village called. They are looking for their town idiot. You need to go home now.
  
  Report this comment
- Apple Bite
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:36am
  Perhaps you’d like to invest in some actual reading comprehension skills, before making such a statement…? The sane of mind knew these figures didn’t add up, that’s why so many came out immediate and denounced it over and over again. They also made mention that California didn’t report their figures at that time, that they were holding back til later.
  
  The only ones to believe the lies told by the mainstream are those like yourself.
  
  Report this comment
- SamIamTwo
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:39am
  And who let Cali report late? Wannna know?
  
  Report this comment
- EtchASketch
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:42am
  You’re all so quick to respond to me that you all failed to actually read what I wrote.
  
  Report this comment
- Popp40
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:42am
  @Etchasketch please do tell what positivie news this agency has put out? The only time the they have put out good news on the job market was before the vice president debate and that was because 49 out of 50 states turned in their numbers….and the 1 state that did not turn in its numbers was CA.
  
  Obviously statistics weren’t your strong subject in school because if it were then you would know that if 113,000 jobs created equaled 8.3% unemployment, however, 114,000 jobs created equaled 7.8%….you are telling me that the extra 1000 jobs dropped the % that much…..oh wait, I know you are going to refer to the 800,000 “self-employed” jobs that was created…..well here is a funny thing about those “self-employed”….why do they count them as jobs created, however, when they fail and are no more….they aren’t counted as jobs lost.
  
  You say we are flip flopping, however, in all reality this agency has not put out any good news. Unless you want to count sckewed and misleading data as “good” news.
  
  Report this comment
- RightUnite
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:44am
  What are you going to do when Obummer actually loses?? Are you going to leave the country?? Let me know… I for one will be happy to help pack your sorry azz outta here.
  
  Report this comment
- Blitz
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:47am
  troll, troll, troll your boat all the way back to Chicago….. Ok bu bye now.
  
  Report this comment
- SamIamTwo
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:53am
  Not true, I asked you a question…
  
  Report this comment
- EtchASketch
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:06am
  @RightUnite, I will not move. The fact is, the results of the election will have very little affect on me. Or any of us, for that matter. If you believe that our presidents have been that much different over the last couple of decades, then you’ve been fooled. It’s coke or pepsi. Both cola. It’s not like we’ve got some Sprite up there or something.
  
  The fact that you are so excited about the prospects of a Romney victory, just remember that the energy and hope was just as real for the Obama supporters last time around. And the Bush supporters before that. Etc, etc.
  
  Not much changes, I ain’t too worried about it.
  
  Report this comment
- antann
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:32am
  Etchasketch, I don’t go by Gallup. Never have. I check Rasmussen. It has had both candidates up. Right now it has Romney up by 1. I think this has always been a closer race than people think. But this is a different subject than unemployment data.
  
  Unemployment, whether or not it was 7.8% or hirer didn’t matter as much as the total picture. In what world does unemployment go down and poverty and food stamps go up? In what world does wages go down as more become employed? In what world does unemployment go down with GDP? And how can the total picture be seen as good? Only through spin of the Obama Administration can the total picture be bright.
  
  Report this comment
- cemerius
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:40am
  @EtchASketch
  
  The reason the Republicans cheer what little “good numbers” that get reported is THAT they are closer to the truth then the overinflated one sided ones that favor the Democrats. I have friends that feel the same way you do and just like I tell them “you are wrong”! I could give you MANY examples but I feel they would be wasted on you in this forum and frankly I have NO patience for people that refuse to be swayed from their “ideological insanity”!!!
  
  Report this comment
- antann
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:46am
  Freudian slip. I want people to find jobs so bad I typed ‘hirer” instead of ‘higher’. Looking for employers for friends out of work.
  
  Report this comment
- EtchASketch
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 10:46am
  Antann, I wasn’t talking about you. I don’t even know who you are. I was talking about entertainers like Rush and Glenn and Hannity. They talk like this as if no one is paying attention to what they said the day, or hour before.
  
  Report this comment
- rosegrower
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 11:00am
  Etch, it’s not that conservatives can’t stick to a story, it’s just that we believe our eyes, our bank accounts and our life experience. I know that there are real people who have lost jobs – I work in an industry that went from 2 full shifts in 2008 (boo Bush) down to 1 part-time shift under Obama. It’s just been in the past year that we’ve hired back people to fill out one full-time shift. Many of our customers who were working on razor-thin margins in 2008 are no longer in business – Obamanomics killed them deader than pot did most of your grey cells. I’ve heard from a handful of remaining clients that they are waiting to make any major business decisions until after the elections, because of O is re-elected, many of them may decide to take early retirement and close up shop. I don’t need a government agency to tell me that nationwide, people are suffering. And all of those “adjustments” are attempts at CYA, because there are enough skeptics like me around who trust our insights over anything the government feeds us.
  
  Report this comment
- fdraiden
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 1:15pm
  Do you get fries with your free hamburger working at McDonalds?
  
  Report this comment
- antann
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 2:43pm
  Etchasketch, you said ‘conservatives’. I’m a conservative. Glenn mentioned weeks ago to look at Rasmussen’s daily tracking, because of the way they weight the likely voters to come up with their percentages. I respect this advice, because Rasmussen has a proven track record for accuracy. As for Hannity and Rush, I don’t listen to them, so I don’t know which polls they trust.
  
  Report this comment
- antann
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 2:52pm
  http://www.glennbeck.com/2012/09/21/rasmussen-vs-every-other-poll/
  
  I believe in footnotes.
  
  Report this comment
- EtchASketch
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 2:53pm
  Antann, that’s my point. They “trust” one poll one day, then “distrust” it the next. Whatever helps them further their agendas.
  
  Report this comment
Popp40
Posted on October 18, 2012 at 9:28am
Hold on…..let me show you my shocked face!!!!!

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- Voice_of_One
  Posted on October 18, 2012 at 6:13pm
  No, No, you’re not holding your mouth right. It should be more like this….
  See now that is a real shocked look.
  
  Report this comment

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