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Crime

Scientists Find It ‘Unsettling’ That Italian Seismologists Were Found Guilty of Manslaughter for Inexact Earthquake Predictions

Oct. 22, 2012 7:45pm Liz Klimas

L’AQUILA, Italy (TheBlaze/AP) — An Italian court has convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter for failing to adequately warn residents before an earthquake struck central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people. This defied assertions from some that earthquakes cannot be predicted.

Six Scientists, One Government Official Sentenced to Six Years in Prison for Wrong Earthquake Predictions

In this April 7, 2009 file photo a man sits on rubbles in the village of Onna, a day after a powerful earthquake struck the Abruzzo region in central Italy. (Photo: AP/Alessandra Tarantino, File)

The court in L’Aquila also sentenced the defendants to six years each in prison. All are members of the national Great Risks Commission, and several are prominent scientists or geological and disaster experts.

Scientists had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no reliable way of predicting earthquakes. So news of the verdict shook the tightknit community of earthquake experts worldwide.

“It’s a sad day for science,” said seismologist Susan Hough, of the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, Calif. “It’s unsettling.” That fellow seismic experts in Italy were singled out in the case “hits you in the gut,” Hough added.

Watch this EuroNews report of the sentence:

In Italy, convictions aren’t definitive until after at least one level of appeals, so it is unlikely any of the defendants would face jail immediately.

Other Italian public officials and experts have been put on trial for earthquake-triggered damage, such as the case in southern Italy for the collapse of a school in a 2002 quake in which 27 children and a teacher were killed. But that case centered on allegations of shoddy construction of buildings in quake-prone areas.

In this photo provided by the Vatican newspaper l’Osservatore Romano, coffins are seen during the funeral service for quake victims in L’Aquila. (Photo: AP/L’Osservatore Romano)

State TV noted that this was the first time prosecutors had brought a case based on the failure to predict an earthquake.

Among those convicted Monday were some of Italy’s most well-known and internationally respected seismologists and geological experts, including Enzo Boschi, former head of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.

“I am dejected, desperate,” Boschi said after the verdict. “I thought I would have been acquitted. I still don’t understand what I was convicted of.”

In this April 6, 2009 file photo released by the Italian Guardia Forestale (Forestry Police Force) an aerial view of the destruction following the earthquake. (Photo: AP/Guardia Forestale, File)

The trial began in September 2011 in this Apennine town, whose devastated historic center is still largely deserted.

The defendants were accused in the indictment of giving “inexact, incomplete and contradictory information” about whether small tremors felt by L’Aquila residents in the weeks and months before the April 6, 2009, quake should have constituted grounds for a quake warning.

Judge Marco Billi, right, reads the verdict at L’Aquila court, Italy, Monday. (Photo: AP//Raniero Pizzi)

The 6.3-magnitude temblor killed 308 people in and around the medieval town and forced survivors to live in tent camps for months.

Many much smaller earth tremors had rattled the area in the months before the quake, causing frightened people to wonder if they should evacuate.

“I consider myself innocent before God and men,” said another convicted defendant, Bernardo De Bernardinis, a former official of the national Civil Protection agency.

Prosecutors had sought convictions and four-year sentences during the trial. They argued in court that the L’Aquila disaster was tantamount to `’monumental negligence,” and cited the devastation wrought in the southern United States in 2005 when levees failed to protect the city of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.

Relatives of some who perished in the 2009 quake said justice has been done. Ilaria Carosi, sister of one of the victims, told Italian state TV that public officials must be held responsible “for taking their job lightly.”

The world’s largest multi-disciplinary science society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, condemned the charges, verdict and sentencing as a complete misunderstanding about the science behind earthquake probabilities.

There are swarms of seismic activity regularly in Italy and most do not end up causing dangerous earthquakes, said AAAS geologist Brooks Hanson, deputy editor of the organization’s Science magazine. He said that if seismologists had to warn of a quake with every swarm there would be too many false alarms and panic.

“With earthquakes we just don’t know,” Hanson said Monday. “We just don’t know how a swarm will proceed.”

Comments on Twitter about the verdict abounded with references to Galileo, the Italian scientist who was tried as a heretic in 1633 for his contention that the Earth revolved around the sun and not vice versa as Catholic church teaching then held. In 1992, then-Pope John Paul II declared that the church had erred in its ruling against the astronomer.

Defense lawyer Filippo Dinacci predicted that the L’Aquila court’s verdict would have a chilling effect on officials tasked with protecting Italians in natural disasters. Public officials would be afraid to “do anything,” Dinacci told reporters.

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Comments (77)

reconmarine
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:47pm
This is ridiculous. It’s like jailing a Meteorologist for not pinpointing exactly where a hurricane or tornado will hit a week in advance.

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- Xyskalla
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 1:02am
  Do they really want the scientists to start issuing earthquake warnings 12 times a day just to cover their backsides?
  
  Report this comment
- termyt
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 1:08am
  If you are a meteorologist in Italy and have not resigned, yet – you have an unnerving devotion to duty.
  
  Is this what happens when science becomes your god?
  
  Report this comment
- Wolf
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 8:15am
  “…Scientists had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no reliable way of predicting earthquakes..”
  But they expect us to believe they’re right about Goreball warming.
  Gore should be put on trial right beside these people- I’m sure he’d agree with being tried in the world court.
  
  Report this comment
- Atrum Angelis
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 3:58pm
  @Wolf
  
  Don’t paint all scientists with the same brush. As someone who has a Geology degree and has worked in the field, I can tell you most scientists know the world goes through warm and cool cycles. Most don’t think anthropogenic global warming is more than a political dance. Hell, I worked in the Oil industry and Iron exploration industry for a while and there are lots of geologists there, which should tell you something.
  
  Report this comment
junkmaninohio
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:44pm
This is just one small reason among millions of why people are trying to flee Italy. The people who run that country, including law enforcement, are total loons.

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Big Media Bias
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:34pm
I wish they would do the same with the Global Warming scientists and Al Gore.

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- M13
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 10:26pm
  To much money to be made to arrest anyone for that. Follow the money, you would be amazed where it will lead to.
  
  Report this comment
macpappy
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:33pm
I bet they don’t have to worry about anyone predicting any more earthquakes.

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- Stelex
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:44pm
  I wonder if you get jailed for predicting one that doesn’t materialize. I’d just call one out every day.
  
  Report this comment
- AmazingGrace8
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 2:05pm
  You are right…if you feel the earth move….guess you keep your mouth shut. LOL
  
  Report this comment
BlackCrow
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:32pm
Today the geologist tomorrow the weather girl.

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spirited
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:30pm
With that ‘play or you’ll pay’ mentality…. Obama and his (whole) gang should be imprisoned

>immediately!!!

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tonypro
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:27pm
I don’t even know how to respond to this.

What’s next, charge a meteorologist because his % of rain was wrong? If that’s the case all of the weather people will be in prison, or in a different profession.

This is just another sign that the endgame is upon us.

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- Stelex
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:43pm
  You are correct……..Endgame is on. If they scare the scientists into submition who knows whats true or whats to believe. Especially with an un educated youth that they have managed to dumb down…..there is no more common sense. There is only propoganda…….Welcome to the NWO comrade Tonypro. Please report to sector seven to receive your grey jumpsuit and bar code.
  
  Report this comment
- Mr.buff1959
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 1:31am
  Lock and load.
  
  Report this comment
NOFX
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:26pm
I guess it’s ironic that I have a disdain for cops but a general respect for attorneys. Yes, there are a ton of corrupt lawyers which is why I believe there is a need for more honest lawyers to help root out a lot of the corruption within the legal system. Maybe in the end it’s a lost cause but I believe it’s extremely irresponsible to turn our backs and just let everything destroy itself.

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Stoic one
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:24pm
This is what happens when Science embroils itself in politics.

This will be the fate of “climate change” scientists soon.

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- Calm Voice of Reason
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:36pm
  If there had in fact been a scientist among those politicians, these people would be free. This would seem to be an argument FOR science in politics.
  
  Report this comment
- Thornyrose13
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 8:42am
  No, this is what happens when politics intrudes in science. The scientists made no claims about being able to predict quakes. Yet they are prosecuted for not doing something they already admit to be incapable of doing. This was a cynical political ploy by the Italian government. I can’t wait to see what happens when the scientists leave Italy,and that country is relying on astrologers, dowsers, mediums, and feng shui experts to predict quakes and other events.
  
  Report this comment
- Hausmaus
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 6:47pm
  This is what happens when a fart fails to exit the rectal cavity, and lingers around for too long.
  
  Report this comment
4xeverything
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:19pm
Italians are stoopid.

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BasketFullOfPuppies
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:18pm
You know? The threat of prosecution and imprisonment could convince the scientists promoting anthropogenic global warming to come clean and tell us the real truth…

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- Oneirishman
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:25pm
  Deja vu
  
  Report this comment
- BasketFullOfPuppies
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:34pm
  But, at least the seismologists ADMIT that they don’t know. The freakin global warming guys pretend that they have it all figured out…
  
  Report this comment
- Malrick
  Posted on October 23, 2012 at 12:58am
  It’ll more likely be enforced to make them lie.
  
  Report this comment
Oneirishman
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:16pm
They have “no reliable way to predict earthquakes” I’ll grant that. They also have no reliable way to predict the average temperature of the earth 1, 5, 10 years from now. Can we start the trials for conspiratorial fraud.

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mrpips
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:16pm
They kinda have it coming. If the same scientists want Nations to change their economies over predictions they make decades or centuries from now, then they should be held accountable for not being able to predict what will happen tomorrow.

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- Oneirishman
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:21pm
  You owe me a coke!
  
  Report this comment
woodyee
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:12pm
WTF?!?

Why SHOULDN’T they be thrown in jail? We should hold Algore and his scandalous pseudo-scientists to the same standards. Be less trouble that way…

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NOFX
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:09pm
“Defense lawyer Filippo Dinacci predicted that the L’Aquila court’s verdict would have a chilling effect on officials tasked with protecting Italians in natural disasters. Public officials would be afraid to “do anything,” Dinacci told reporters.”

Exactly! If these geologists end up in jail for 6 years after exhausting all of their appeals, then no one would want to work for the public sector again. This case would open the door for disaster. The tertiary sector in Italy would be under attack – doctors, health professionals, etc.

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coyote1hell
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:08pm
Buh’rack said…I’ts kinda like My Sharia Law, ‘cept we execute them immediately…yepppp..

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chips1
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:08pm
I don’t blame them for being afraid. Inexact predictions of global warming is next on their list.

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- Oneirishman
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:30pm
  Everyone’s on the same page with you.
  
  Report this comment
Dejavu
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:05pm
So, if one were to neglect to predict the Santa Ana winds in California, if a truck were to be blown over, can the trucker or the trucking company sue meteorologists in California? (Ooops, just gave the slip and fall lawyers somthing to think about!)

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EveF.Destruction
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:02pm
Since we have been told that whatever scientists postulate is not theory but fact (global warming, evolution, etc.) it’s only logical that these all-knowing experts should be held to this standard.

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- woodyee
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:15pm
  Hopefully, this will start a tsunami of lawsuits against pseudo-scientists, thus getting scientists out of politics and back into doing what they do best – theorizing until proof, proof, and re-proof.
  
  Report this comment
- Stelex
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:26pm
  Your stoned …..right. Earthquake prediction is equal to global warming. Look this planet is gone…it a total fubar…….you start convicting scientists for failed predictions….no more scientists. Which may be the end game……screw up on a hurricane …….jail time. Someone dies in a pop up thunderstorm …..10 years. The end game of the NWO is to have a very passive and ignorant subject group. While they tell that group how and what to think. We are well on our way folks. The UN monitoring our election…….WTF. If that fact alone doesn’t piss you off then sip some more cool aid. It’s go time people…….we are under attack. This is Pearl Harbor and 911 just not as obvious. Check out the Drudge artical about the scores of islamist extremists visiting the white house…..come on people wake up. We have a Muslim in chief and he’s taking us down…..HARD.
  
  Report this comment
The-Monk
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:00pm
I heard that the conviction rate in Italy is extremely high and the successful appeal rate is just as high.

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- NOFX
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:11pm
  Then it sounds like an additional form of taxation via court fees and penalties.
  
  Report this comment
RJJinGadsden
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 7:59pm
Hey, you global whining scientists, heed this warning and stop the BS.

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- The-Monk
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:03pm
  Hi RJJ,
  
  Al Gore should get a villa there and set up shop. : )
  
  Report this comment
- RJJinGadsden
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:10pm
  Hi MONK, Good idea, maybe you should drop him a line. You know, on that internet thingy that he invented.
  
  Report this comment
- The-Monk
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:13pm
  Hi RJJ,
  
  Yep…. just another Inconvenient Truth err I mean Lie…..
  
  Report this comment
The-Monk
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 7:58pm
I hope it doesn’t take 359 years to straighten this one out….

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turbeda
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 7:58pm
And so many on the left want us to be more like Europe. RIIIIIGGGHHHTTTT!!!!

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Minnaloushe
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 7:54pm
Don’t do forecasting then or even warnings. If a society approves of government goons doing this, then I hope its population en masse and in toto becomes lava lube.

Here, of course, they’d be screwed by trial lawyers who make sure no good deed goes unlitigated.

/ramble

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- Exrepublisheep
  Posted on October 22, 2012 at 8:01pm
  Mass science exodus.
  
  Report this comment
KyleD
Posted on October 22, 2012 at 7:54pm
Yup, never going to Italy now.

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