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Science

Disaster Experts Leave Posts Fearing Prosecution After Peers Receive Prison Sentence for Poor Predictions

Oct. 25, 2012 6:30am Liz Klimas

ROME (TheBlaze/AP) — After seven Italian seismologists and experts were found guilty of manslaughter and received a prison sentence for failing to adequately warn residents of a deadly 2009 earthquake, others fearing similar prosecution are leaving their posts.

Four top Italian disaster experts quit their jobs Tuesday, saying with such a risk, they can’t effectively perform their duties.

A court in the quake-devastated town of L’Aquila convicted seven former members of Italy’s so-called “Great Risks Commission” and sentenced each of them to six years in prison, prompting predictions that experts would be discouraged from working in Italy for fear of similar risks of prosecution.

Italian Disaster Experts Quit After Guilty Manslaughter Verdict of Former Colleagues

Judge Marco Billi, right, reads the verdict at L’Aquila court, Italy, Monday, Oct. 22, 2012. (Photo: AP/Raniero Pizzi)

Commission President Luciano Maiani and two other members resigned, along with a top official for earthquake and volcano risk in the national Department of Civil Protection. Maiani said Monday’s court ruling made it impossible to work in a “calm and efficient” way.

Prosecutors alleged the defendants – who included some of Italy’s most internationally respected quake experts – didn’t properly inform town residents of the risk of a big quake following weeks of small tremors. But scientists have ridiculed the case, saying earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted. The convictions are expected to be appealed.

With the verdict, “we understood why the Great Risks Commission has that name,” a front-page commentary began in Corriere della Sera, a Milan daily. “The great risks are those to its members, as one deduces from the verdict.”

Relatives of the victims embrace outside L’Aquila court after hearing the guilty verdict. (Photo: AP/Raniero Pizzi)

Senate President Renato Schifani has called the convictions and prison terms “strange, embarrassing.”

Many scientists and commentators have noted that the court case failed to address a major cause of fatalities in disasters like quakes and mudslides: erecting homes, schools, hospitals and other public buildings on quake-prone terrain without the proper construction techniques or materials to make the structures more resilient.

Watch University of Southern California professor and seismologist Tim Jordan explain why this case puts those in charge of predicting disasters in a complicated position:

After the April 2009 quake, which left 308 people dead, many experts said that the 6.3-magnitude temblor wouldn’t have caused such extensive damage if buildings been constructed or retrofitted to meet modern quake zone construction standards.

In Washington, the American Geophysical Union described the verdict and prison sentences as “troubling,” and expressed concern that they could “ultimately be harmful to international efforts to understand natural disasters and mitigate associated risk.”

This picture shows damaged buildings following the 2009 earthquake. (Photo: FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AFP/Getty Images)

“While the facts of the L’Aquila case are complex, the unfettered exchange of data and information, as well as the freedom and encouragement to participate in open discussions and to communicate results, are essential to the success of any type of scientific research,” the union, a professional and scientific organization with members from over 146 countries, said in a statement Tuesday.

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Comments (10)

BHOHG2G
Posted on October 25, 2012 at 8:16pm
So just predict a devastating earthquake every day. Better safe than sorry. Keep everyone on pins and needles. Ha! Stupid Buttocks.

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voting-for-romney
Posted on October 25, 2012 at 12:58pm
The fact that voters do not abolish the commission is disturbing? Meanwhile the rest of the world has to retire old nuclear reactors, and consume the fuel remaining in modular reactors that do not require special cooling, the technology which was the result of “investment” in government research, but was not brought to market in time to prevent the tragedy in Japan?

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Salamander
Posted on October 25, 2012 at 12:36pm
Just for them to CYA, they will all have to adopt the ‘Chicken Little Defense’, by always running around saying ‘The sky is falliing. The sky is falling.’ Then, just like we have Al Gore running around with his Global Warming cheer, there will be no science of merit left! Thank you, lawyers! You have done it again!

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DYNA
Posted on October 25, 2012 at 8:48am
The same mentality that wants to define and create laws against “hate speech”.

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- johnjamison
  Posted on October 25, 2012 at 10:44am
  No those scientist are being paid large sums of money to help the country by warning of quakes…..It’s not the same as hate speech the two aren’t even on the same planet they are so far apart.
  
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- John655
  Posted on October 25, 2012 at 11:32am
  I’m a geologist and I can tell you for a fact that it is impossible to predict an earthquake. Sure you can have a series of small earthquakes which would lead a novice to believe a big quake must be coming, but it is not so. Small quakes might just as likely be relieving the tension on a fault. So if you give a warning everytime you detect a series of small quakes you soon be going to jail for fear mongering, atleast, sadly in Italy you will.
  
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- richard the lion-hearted
  Posted on October 25, 2012 at 2:42pm
  @johnjamison
  Dyna said ‘mentality’ of which is 100% true. The socialist mentality that would have government in every aspect of your life cannot handle it when those they appointed fall short of the ill-conceived notions of utopian success they espouse to all of us who know better. So…in closing they hold up their sacrificial lamb(s) to appease the masses they’ve fooled with their blanket government promises of that unreachable, false fantasy, called ‘Utopia’, they ARE the same who would want freedom of speech for their viewpoint only.
  
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PaulreveresDarknight
Posted on October 25, 2012 at 8:14am
Progressive socialism. Id be scared as hell too. Now there is a God and all His fault hum. 0 just did this same thing with 0care. Can not cure so 2nd hospital admission ? You get fined. Those clowns look sad tie in pants, security unshaven, one is leaning against wall. UN SUCkS

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The_Jerk
Posted on October 25, 2012 at 8:07am
The legal web we weave. We’re doing it here, too.

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Gonzo
Posted on October 25, 2012 at 8:03am
That whole thing is unbelievable.

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