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Surprised? Some Climate Scientists Trying to Connect Hurricane Sandy With Global Warming

Oct. 29, 2012 1:05pm

Every time there’s a massive weather event — like Hurricane Sandy affecting much of the East Coast early this week — climatologists are called upon to answer the question of whether this weather is evidence of global warming. And while most would say an individual weather event cannot attributed as evidence of global warming, the link is still being made.

Climate Scientists Have Different Thoughts About Climate Changes Influence If Any on Hurricanes

A sailboat smashes on the rocks after breaking free from its mooring on City Island October 29, 2012 in New York. (Photo: DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images)

In fact, some climate scientists are taking a closer look at individual weather events and making an effort to quantify climate change’s role in contributing to it.

Although trends in changing climate are generally tracked over years, not just by the weather outside your window, as it’s often put, NPR’s Adam Frank reported several researchers are looking at various aspects of individual weather events and the influence of climate change:

Researchers like Randall Dole of NOAA, for example, might ask what percentage of an extreme event’s magnitude came from a changing climate. Peter Stott of the UK Met Office frames the question differently. He looks at the odds for a given extreme weather event to occur given human-driven climate change. Kevin Trenberth of NCAR takes a third view, asking: Given a changed background climate, how should we expect weather to change?

Earlier this year with the extreme heat wave across much of the country and “derecho” affecting the D.C.-metro area, scientists likened these events to what would be expected with climate change, although they said it was too soon to attribute it to this. Around the same time a report was released that said global warming was at least turning the odds to favor the likelihood of extreme weather events.

Andrew Revkin for the New York Times Dot Earth Blog wrote some scientists think Sandy specifically is “what you’d expect following a summer in which much of the Arctic Ocean was open water.” Arctic sea ice saw a record melt this year. Revkin did write that there is still “far too much natural variability in the frequency and potency of rare and powerful storms,” like Sandy, to say anything beyond that it is what would be expected with climate change projections.

Climate Scientists Have Different Thoughts About Climate Changes Influence If Any on Hurricanes

Sandy, which has already claimed over 50 lives in the Caribbean is predicted to bring heavy winds and floodwaters to the mid-Atlantic region. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)

Revkin contacted climate scientists to see what they thought of Hurricane Sandy as it pertained to global climate change. Here are a few excerpts of what they wrote — and they don’t all agree:

  • Jennifer Francis, Rutgers University: “The jet stream patter [...] is exactly the sort of highly amplified (i.e., wavy) pattern that I’d expect to see more of in response to ice loss and enhanced Arctic warming. [...]  It could very well be that general warming along with high sea-surface temperatures have lengthened the tropical storm season, making it more likely that a Sandy could form, travel so far north, and have an opportunity to interact with a deep jet-stream trough associated with the strong block, which is steering it westward into the mid-Atlantic.”
  • Martin Hoerling, NOAA: ”As to underlying causes, neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change, nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades (see IPCC 2012 SREX report). So, while it will rain like “black cats and Frankenweenies†over the midatlantic, this is not some spell conjured upon us by great external forces….unless you believe in the monster flicks of Universal Stuidios fame!”
  • Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research: ”The sea surface temperatures along the coast are 5 degrees F. or more above average and 1 degree F. is from global warming. Stronger storm and more precipitation results. But with respect to the Arctic connection, I don’t believe it.”
  • Patrick J. Michaels, climatologist with ties to the Cato Institute: ”It’s also consistent with a planet with colder temperatures as well as one with warmer ones. More important, events like this are inevitable on a planet that has an ocean with the geography of the Atlantic (meaning a Gulf Stream-like feature), a large north-south continent on its western margin without a transverse mountain range to inhibit the merger of tropical warmth with polar cold, and four seasons in the temperate latitudes. And I predict confidently that we will survive Sandy, which should not be a tropical cyclone at landfall.”

Even as some scientists are continuing to draw links between global warming and extreme weather events though, as Frank reported for NPR, hurricanes are rather low on the list of weather that scientists believe they can study to draw links to climate change. He wrote that scientists “don’t have the tools to make strong inferences” about hurricanes and climate change.

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Comments (68)

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  • guz75
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 2:31pm

    What the hell is wrong with you people. If you want to argue the point of whether man is responsible for climate change, knock yourselves out, but the issue of whether we have been seeing an unusual change in the climate in recent years is one of fact.

    Unsurprisingly The Blaze is making disingenuous comments like ‘……while most would say an individual weather event cannot attributed as evidence of global warming, the link is still being made’ and ‘In fact, some climate scientists are taking a closer look at individual weather events and making an effort to quantify climate change’s role in contributing to it’. All you have to do is read the rest of the article to realise those comments are nonsense and in fact scientists are doing the exact opposite; they are looking at how different weather events might connect to one another and in particular how the ice loss at the Arctic can influence weather systems.

    You go ahead and pray to your god for all your answers, I’d rather scientists were keeping an eye on how the changing climate may affect our weather systems.

    Report this comment

    guz75  
    • fastfacts
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 3:06pm

      You know that if Obama had kept his promise to lower the sea levels this would never had happened. Remember this promise: http://www.thedailycandidate.com/video/2012/oct/obama_lower_seas.html

      Report this comment

      fastfacts  
    • let us prey
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 3:40pm

      Guz
      Climate changes all the time. Global warming is a money game played by al Gore. I will pray to my god that you sprout a brain.

      Report this comment

      let us prey  
    • Watermain
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 5:09pm

      Well of course this hurricane is caused by global warming and we all know that global warming is man-made, specifically one man – George W. Bush. I thought this was common knowledge…

      Report this comment

      Watermain  
    • Larry E
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 5:51pm

      Uh, and we’ve never had unusual weather ever before I guess? If **** sapiens has been around for 200k years, and semi reliable weather history for maybe 500 years or even 1000 years there is insufficient data to prove your apparent point that people cause global warming. If you can prove to me or anyone else with a normal IQ that people are causing global warming and stand up to refutation of your points I might accept your silly arguments.

      Report this comment

      Larry E  
    • revron
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 8:10pm

      let us,
      It is also a religion. They are over-zealous,Fundamentalists extremeists that kling to their “science” even when evidence has been proven to be contrived or doctored.

      Report this comment

      revron  
    • Zekron
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 10:55pm

      Hey Nitwit, increasing global temperatures stopped 16 years ago, not only is there no man made global warming, but no global warming. You are spewing propaganda without facts. I actually understand science, you don’t.
      However, continue to spew your brainless diatribe. You serve a purpose by lowering the average liberal troll I.Q. on this website.
      BTW moron, CO2 levels have been much higher without a correlation with increased temperature. Try this as a possible cause of increased global temperature, increased Sun activity!
      Read a book, buy a clue, stop embarrassing yourself.

      Report this comment

      Zekron  
    • donkeykong
      Posted on October 30, 2012 at 2:12am

      Zek-
      Right on – nuff said.

      Report this comment

      donkeykong  
    • TimPatriot
      Posted on October 30, 2012 at 12:46pm

      Scientists with an agenda are dangerous….follow the money & understand motivations!

      Your blind faith in science led us to science widely accepting “flat earth” as fact. Heretics (open minded scientists) were executed as enemies of the state.

      Report this comment

      TimPatriot  
  • NDPINDNT
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 2:29pm

    I was wondering how long it would be before the global warming fanatics would come out of the woodwork. This is just the beginning.

    Report this comment

    NDPINDNT  
  • QuincySmith
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 2:10pm

    The ‘global climate change’ crowd are so predictable: The only suggestion is that GCC increases a climate event’s magnitude, not how it could diminish the effects.

    Report this comment

    QuincySmith  
  • IMCHRISTIAN
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:57pm

    I believe that it was the contraceptives that were being used and then when stopped they had babies that grew up to be scientist and the kids and then to adults had all sorts of problems as they made up stupid stuff and thought it was real hence their belief in Global Warming (they even invested tax payers money as Government was paying them for their expertise). Must have been the mothers previous use of contraceptives. As true as their version of Global Warming

    Report this comment

    IMCHRISTIAN  
  • progressiveslayer
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:51pm

    Al Gore and every other warmer cultist needs to be sued for perpetrating the myth of ‘man made global warming’. To hear the warmer cultists tell it everything causes man made global warming,it’s just a scam to make a few people rich at the expense of everyone else.

    Report this comment

    progressiveslayer  
  • Ben__Franklin
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:45pm

    Where the he!! is Oblamo on this. In 2008 he was to calm the seas! Why is he allowing such devastation to pound our eastern US? When is he going to part the sea??

    JZS, Wango, Encinom….you have anything on this from Huff’in Puffs website??

    Report this comment

    Ben__Franklin  
    • bannedfromCNN
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:51pm

      the global warming nuts have been waiting for years for a big story like this – science, NO. Politics, YES.

      Report this comment

      bannedfromCNN  
    • Watermain
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 5:13pm

      BHO is exactly where he is supposed to be during an event that may end civilization as we know it…in the WH situation room where he can effectively refuse pleas for help from people stranded in their cars, on their roofs, children caught in buses on flooded highways, you know, the usual.

      Report this comment

      Watermain  
  • 65Mustang
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:43pm

    The same people (idiots) that believe in global warming are the same people who are Obama voters..dumba** stupid. God is in charge.

    Report this comment

    65Mustang  
  • huey6367
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:42pm

    I knew this was coming. Just wait and there it is. I am from the Tampa Bay area and it is theorized that an ancient hurricane washed away the soil the contained a large fresh water lake now known as Tampa Bay (there is geologic evidence to support this). Where was man-made global warming then? Must have been a helluva hurricane to wash away all that soil and create Tampa Bay.

    Report this comment

    huey6367  
    • goahead.makemyday
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:52pm

      HUEY, I can’t remember but when was the last time a category 1 hurricane was a big deal here in FL?

      Report this comment

      goahead.makemyday  
  • HKS
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:36pm

    The whole deal is the government paying with weather control and they want you to think its your fault. Do a little research on the net, the info is out there. Start with contrails.

    Report this comment

    HKS  
  • RAMJR
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:35pm

    And this really surprises people? Well, Currenttv, Al Gore’s channel, is broke and going under. Don’t be surprised if he shows up all over the media today, or when the storm hits.

    Report this comment

    RAMJR  
    • rennyangel
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:43pm

      In the early 1800s, two huge hurricanes hit a tiny NY City and sent a tidal surge over the wall (the height of the Wall Street sign today) when we were experiencing what would be called Dickensian winters (a la A Christmas Carol) and were those caused by global warming?

      Report this comment

      rennyangel  
    • Ben__Franklin
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:47pm

      Ummhrrph….let me put on my Liberal pointy hat and replace Bush with Obama.

      This storm and its aftermath is the fault of Obama not caring about the East Coast. He just hates white people.

      Report this comment

      Ben__Franklin  
  • American2012
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:34pm

    yes i agree.sandy is created by democrat.as October surprise.to steal the election.now no current roads are flooded with water what are we going to do?

    Report this comment

    American2012  
  • roknjohn
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:33pm

    President Obama is scheduled to issue a statement about Hurricane Sandy today at 12:45pm after a briefing in the situation room. Sources close to the President warn that it is still too early to know for sure if the storm is a spontaneous weather phenomenon or a planned attack.

    Report this comment

    roknjohn  
  • djmaine
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:27pm

    Been waiting for these people to speak up. They are more predictable than the weather.

    Report this comment

    djmaine  
  • UNALIEN
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:25pm

    Confirmation bias, expected from ideological zealots

    Report this comment

    UNALIEN  
  • Cavallo
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:25pm

    EVERYTHING to these death cult pseudo scientists is caused by Global Warming and a lack of fascist centralized economic planning. They’re no different than the bearded weirdos standing on the corner with a sign that reads “Repent! The end is Nigh!” Maybe with a printed backward R or E.

    Report this comment

    Cavallo  
  • momrules
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:18pm

    Global warming proponents have officially become a cult.

    Report this comment

    momrules  
  • 1TrueOne55
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:18pm

    Maybe some should check power consumption around the Alaska climate experiment funded by the Federal Gov’t. Saw that on a Nat/Geo show a few days ago. It’s an array of antennas designed to push up on the Ionosphere and “manipulate” the jet stream to affect weather patterns on a Battlefield some where on the planet.
    With the wild turns that this storm is taking just on a logical level it makes you think after seeing this show is this natural swings or did they juice up that antenna array, it makes the skeptic in you just wonder.

    Report this comment

    1TrueOne55  
  • Metallicat
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:18pm

    Werent climate change theorists proven to be a scam and a hoax recently in the UK?thought I had seen something revealing that recently.

    Report this comment

    Metallicat  
  • pap pap
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:17pm

    Idiotae magna – That’s about all I can remember from my latin classes.

    Report this comment

    pap pap  
    • georgette
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:45pm

      .wish they’d all get together, buy an island …and natter at each other…they remind me of magpies…do they ever just shut uppppppppppppppp?.

      Report this comment

      georgette  
    • goahead.makemyday
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:50pm

      Imbéciles cultos, I prefer Italian. And it does not mean idiot cult although that is true too.

      Report this comment

      goahead.makemyday  
  • thejackal
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:17pm

    Global Warming has been completely de-bunked! Anyone still attempting to bring this tripe up needs to be committed! It’s just retarded….

    Report this comment

    thejackal  
  • Smokey_Bojangles
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:15pm

    Bush’s Fault.

    Report this comment

    Smokey_Bojangles  
  • kat747
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:14pm

    If the Democrats are so worried about global warming, they shoud be concerned with the hot air coming out of their mouths.
    Blame it on the Universe and shut up.

    Report this comment

    kat747  
  • floridareader
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:14pm

    This poor brainless so called scientists are ignoring that Atlantic hurricane season is a yearly phenomenon that occurs between June 1st and November 30th, and that lately October is known to be the busiest month of the season.
    This has nothing to do with warming climate, and there are reports that run back as far as the XV century.

    Report this comment

    floridareader  
  • Psychosis
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:09pm

    i wonder if any of these ” scientists” could explain the 1938 storm in nyc ????

    oh, thats right, since they cant seem to follow the basic rules of thesis and science, they are no longer scientists, just mere ” computer model theorists”

    Report this comment

    Psychosis  
  • kickagrandma
    Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:09pm

    Here comes the level of bulls___ rising along with the storm surge. Why GOD lets those folks still draw breath is beyond me, but HE does. *sigh* My job is to LOVE GOD and to pray for the household of faith. I also pray for my enemies. (Not because it’s my idea, but because I am obeying GOD’s command). *sigh, sigh, sigh, sigh*

    Report this comment

    kickagrandma  
    • momrules
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:16pm

      Hi Kick……….In full agreement with you. Praying for Ted Turner after hearing that he was happy about the soldiers committing suicide was difficult but I did it anyway. I will join you with a sigh of my own.

      Report this comment

      momrules  
    • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
      Posted on October 29, 2012 at 1:40pm

      @Gramma:

      The lunatics of the UN Global Warming pantheon and religous malcontents will do anything to get their agenda shoved down the worlds throats, or at the least, that of America. They have gotten to the point where any climate occurance – rain, snow, heat, summer, winter, spring, a bumble bee doing the pollinaiton of flowers a hour early than their insane doctrine permits is ‘global warming.’

      Most of these lunatics are among the same eco-wackos who want the world population reduced to a few millon, and the USA to ‘de-industrialize’ the land.

      Lunacy of the highest order.

      Report this comment

      Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
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