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Politics

5 Days to Go: Stu Breaks Down the Polls in Crucial Swing States, Catches NY Times Oversampling Dems

Nov. 1, 2012 11:40pm Jason Howerton

The New York Times is predicting that President Barack Obama will win the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia – coincidentally a scenario that would mean a second term for the president. However, Glenn Beck and Stu Burguiere, executive producer of “The Glenn Beck Radio Program,” took a closer look at the polls and, with the election just five days away, predicted a different outcome.

“I don’t think that’s going to happen at all. I think it’s going to be a sweep” for Romney,” Beck said.

Stu explained that while The New York Times predicted Obama would win Florida by one percentage point, the Democrat to Republican ratio in the Times sample favored Democrats by seven points, plenty to skew the results.

In Virginia, The New York Times poll shows Obama winning by two points. Once again, the sample favors Democrats, but by eight points this time.

Finally, in Ohio, the paper has Obama blowing Romney away, winning the state by eight points. The poll has a plus eight Democratic sample.

When you take into account the Democratic oversampling and the average Democrat/Republican ratio in polls over the past four elections, Stu explained, the polls actually indicate Romney wins in all three swing states, though Beck admitted this is just “conjecture” at this point.

Watch Stu break down the numbers via TheBlazeTV below:

In CONTROL, Glenn Beck presents a passionate, fact-based case for guns that reveals why gun control isn’t really about controlling guns at all; it’s about controlling us. Find out more HERE.

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Comments (58)

davetrav
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:49am
Take all the polls you want–they are man made—-LIBYA, and JOBS, and Obama’s none support of the Jewish state , ETC, ETC—SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HIM TO GET ONLY 2 VOTES===HIM AND HIS WIFE. –VOTE OBAMA OUT, HELP HEAL AMERICA FOR OUR KIDS AND GRANDKIDS FUTURE IF THEY STILL HAVE ONE.—-AMERICA–WHAT DOE YOU SEE IN THIS DO NOTHING JERK.—OPEN YOR EYES, LOOK AROUND, is this the America you grew up in. VOTE OBAMA AND OTHER DEMOCRATS OUT—-

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barber2
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:36am
What ? You mean that the New York Times, the Big Leaker of national secrets favorable to the Far Left agenda, would also be ” per-sampling” Democrats ? How shocking ! ? From the Bay of Pigs to not vetting Obama to covering up Benghazi …you can always count on the NYT to walk lock-step in the International Left ‘s Parade . Just one big happy family of comrades bent on thrashing conservatives and being one of the major outlets for the Democrat’s Character Assassination Squad . ( Wonder if they are still PUSHING that “dog on the roof of the car” story about Romney they have been droning on about since before the 2008 election ?? while completely ignoring BENGHAZI , of course ) NOBAMA 2012 NO MSM 2012

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Vic Tory
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 7:49am
This just in…
According to the latest poll, if the election were to be held today, Obama would still suck.
Carter thought he was going to be re-elected too.

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MuffySimba
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 7:38am
I’m ignoring all polls on both sides. I’m pro Romney, but I also pro real world. Now, I will say Romney has more people behind him than McCain ever did. Republicans, The Tea Party(excuse me for not knowing jack about that movement) Independents and some Democrats. None of those groups were really behind McCain because they knew he was a weak candidate and he didn’t’ stand a chance. Also add Bush and Sarah Palin into the mix. 4 Years later and it’s the opposite. But you also have Sandy, which for some reason some folks are surprised that Christie and Obama did their ******* jobs. So that means you should vote for Obama. The mainstream media’s laughable attempt to try to use Christie and Bloomberg’s love for Obama against Romney. Anyone with sense should not care, but the senseless do care. Obama’s approval ratings also play apart. I would love to hear “President Romney,” but we have to get him there first. Sandy did not erase Barry’s record.

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grannyrecipe
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 6:45am
This explains a lot…Obama campaign poster

http://imgur.com/V4s4v

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DonaldH
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 5:15am
iBeliever
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 2:23am
Or most people aren’t paranoid schizophrenics who think there’s the slightest chance of the Pres/VP being impeached.
Report Post »

Schizphrenic? why that’s a condition mostly inflicked on young adults— and who are “young adults” most likely to support? explains quite a few things!!

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iBeliever
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 2:23am
Or most people aren’t paranoid schizophrenics who think there’s the slightest chance of the Pres/VP being impeached.

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weskets
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:57am
CATB

You have an excellent point that Obama’s supporters are failing to look at, they are voting in the speaker of the House to become President when the current President and Vice President are both impeached. Although if it is still John Boehner who is speaker, God help us.

See, they can not think that far ahead and only focus on today

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FearlessInfedel62
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:51am
It’s gonna be like 2010 in spades! The mother of all Landslides!!!! Obaminator will not take this loss in good graces, he will adopt a burnt earth policy in his infentile spite, which will stun and confound all who see his final days as POTUS. Can you emagine his final right as pres, to grant pardons for the most evil of beings to be let loose upon the world….the end of his stint will be an added pox upon our REPUBLIC. In GOD we trust…I pray that GOD will be pleased that we thru-off this evil that fools voted into office.

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- smallcraftadvisory
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 5:31am
  I don’t know why the media keeps over-sampling. They are just setting themselves up for even a bigger disappointment. Read http://smallcraftadvisorychronicles.blogspot.com/ for fresh political commentary.
  
  Report this comment
- Citizen7154
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 6:34am
  Shellacking 2: The Presidency…. I’ve already made a few t-shirts. hehe.
  
  Report this comment
- HKS
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 7:33am
  The fact that this thing is close proves that the American people as a whole are dumb as rocks. Look at the mess this guy has built. Further, why would anyone want to be in the military, they leave you on a hook to die lie a rabid dog. Send you into dangerous places and watch you die through a drones eyes. Can’t trust any part of this government. If you knew all the rights that have already been taken from you and the taxes that are about to fall on your head you would probably just give up.
  
  Report this comment
- Rothbardian_in_the_Cleve
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 7:56am
  Collective Stupidity: Because none of us is as dumb as all of us.
  
  Report this comment
- barber2
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:51am
  SMALL: That over-sampling MSM deal ? This is exactly what they did in 2004 when the Lefty MSM , as they still do today, was so busy pushing that International Far Left propaganda, that they then had to create that ” stolen election” crusade ! REMEMBER BENGHAZI . NOBAMA 2012 NO MSM 2012
  
  Report this comment
budahbabe
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:39am
Do you really want a President that ball face lies to you and makes up some ridiculous story to cover up his gun running operation in Benghazi and gets people killed so he can win an election? Is that who you want to run our country?How many other people would have been killed if those brave seals hadn’t gotten them out? What a disgrace this administration is. How anyone could vote for this liar and chief is beyond imagination. Just wait until you are not longer useful and he will turn on you too!!

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CatB
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:39am
Not me .. I will be watching the impeachment and treason trials … and working to get all who participated locked up for a good long time ….

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/11/01/Las-Vegas-Sun-Destroys-Obama

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iBeliever
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:36am
Will you at least consider it?

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weskets
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:00am
Polls? The heck with the polls, I want the FINAL results the morning of Nov. 7th, 2012…

The Trillion dollar question everyone keeps asking “are you better off than you were 4 years ago?”
YES !! Because the reign of the “Chicago Community Organizer” will come to an end soon.

I hope he was better at organizing Chicago than he was at organizing the country, cause he sucks at it. Maybe he should have tried “building those organizing skills”. He can forget “Forward” he needs to back up, back way up.

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- CatB
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:12am
  Read this and have faith .. PRAY AND VOTE ..
  “In one of the most blistering denunciations of Barack Obama ever penned, the Las Vegas Review Journal published an editorial today that excoriated Obama not only for his ineptitude in the Benghazi attack, but also his duplicity afterward and the cooperation of a supine press:”
  
  http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/11/01/Las-Vegas-Sun-Destroys-Obama
  
  Report this comment
- weskets
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:19am
  I think I finally get it!
  
  He wants to go “Forward” because he realizes he was wrong and took the country backwards and is now saying “Forward” as a way of admitting he was wrong and now he wants to move “Forward” to try and get us “Back to the Future” we were once was.
  
  Remember when we once had a future?
  
  Report this comment
HIObserver
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:58am
Hey, everyone in Ohio, when you go vote, check the machine to make sure it logged your Romney vote, for Romney, correct it if it is wrong before hitting the red Vote button.

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Dont-hate-on-me-2
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:56am
I’m going to laugh all the way to the polls knowing that Romney is our next POTUS, the media is desperate and saying anything they can. I’m eating lots of popcorn with my kids taking notes to add to the history books.

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HIObserver
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:55am
Good reasoning on Florida and Virginia, bad logic on Ohio. Ohio needs a real push to pull out a Romney win. The numbers are not good so far.

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Wgnmaster75
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:52am
Remember the movie Moonstruck starring Cher? All of this back and forth reminds me of the dinner scene where the family is yelling at each other. Suddenly the grandfather who has been sitting quietly bursts into tears bringing the argument to an instantaneous halt. Cher turns to him and asks”Grampa, what’s wrong”? He says”I’m so confused”. Believe me when I say I can relate.

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Mustang53
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:48am
Capitallib..dis-info agent..troll…paid shill..fool…LOSER…so easy to spot and so fun to laugh at these days. Have another big swig of that soon disappearing kool-aid your precious Muslim King has been pouring out for you these last 4 years…hahahahahahahah!!!

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TheReasonableLib
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:34am
So every source, realclearpolitics, nate silver (who predicted 2008 & 2010 almost to a T but was lower on the scale in both cases), and everybody else whose results are in line with this trend is completely wrong? I’ll tell you what Mr. Beck. $10,000 bet that Obama wins?

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welovetheUSA
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:25am
What everyone is Not understanding is Ohio is going to be won by Romney, period. Ohio has always been a republican state……..The fools voted for Obama because they believed his lies..all those fools, plus the ones who didnot vote for Obama will be doubled for Romney. The Obama media is not showing the crowds that are showing for Romney..small towns are getting 50,000 people….this is a blow out and Romney will win so big that there will be no reason for a re-count.

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- MuffySimba
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:00am
  Tuesday will tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth. No side can spin that day.
  
  Report this comment
reallyannoyed
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:20am
You know why so many polls “oversample” Democrats? Because there are more conservatives that call themselves Independent, yet vote Republican than there are liberals who call themselves Independent, yet vote Democrat. If you want to scrutinize a poll, I’d focus on Rasmussen, since it does not poll cell phone-only households (I do not know one person younger than 35 who has a landline), it uses automated interviewing (very confusing for seniors), and it does internet polling (the only people who will voluntarily seek out polls are partisan political junkies.) So, if this outfit doesn’t poll anyone who is too young, weeds out anyone who is too old, and gives special attention to those who sit on their computers following politics all day, isn’t it also guilty of oversampling a specific, right-leaning demographic?

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RaydocX
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:03am
Shhhhh…
Don’t tell them it’s an error. Let the dems be overconfident and sit home on the 6th.
Get out and vote (and watch where the electronic vote is scored!). Prove them wrong on election day?

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soybomb315_II
Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:01am
Romney might get 2 of 3, but definitely not a sweep. too many people don’t like Romney

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- The-Monk
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:32am
  “7 Days Until Election Day And The Chicago Black Community Has A Message For Obama”
  
  http://freedomgraffiti.com/2012/10/30/chicagos-message-to-obama/
  
  Report this comment
- CatB
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:46am
  Oh yes .. pay no attention to those huge crowds … I know I was in one. Stay home and don’t vote dems .. no need you are going to win in a cake walk ;-)
  
  Report this comment
- CatB
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:21am
  Excellent MONK!
  
  Report this comment
- The-Monk
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:37am
  Hi CatB,
  
  : )
  
  Report this comment
- barber2
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:44am
  SOY: but do not forget that ” too many people ” also do NOT like Marxism! NOBAMA 2012
  
  Report this comment
InformedbyBlaze
Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:46pm
This shouldn’t be, but it is, the first time I have prayed & fasted about an election.

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- pantokrator
  Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:51pm
  Same here. Most nerve-wrecking five days ever.
  
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- CatB
  Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:53pm
  Me also .. and I am missing my gluten free chips … PRAY AND VOTE!
  
  Report this comment
- TruthTalker
  Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:56pm
  Powell supported Obama because of his great successes. LOL
  
  Report this comment
- Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
  Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:57pm
  Doing the same, this is it, in five days its freedom or tyranny.
  
  Report this comment
- soybomb315_II
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:09am
  tyranny vs. tyranny
  
  We know what Obama is going to give us but we have no clue what Romney is going to give us. Make plans to fast and pray IF Romney actually wins this thing. Romney could be just as dangerous as G.W. Bush
  
  Report this comment
- bullcrapbuster
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:58am
  @SOYBOMB315_II…nothing dangerous about G Bush. It was the dem controlled house and Senate that screwed things up. Dodd/Fwank comes to mind.
  
  Report this comment
- soybomb315_II
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:07am
  patriot act, no child left behind, and Iraq come to my mind…..And you cant blame those on the democrats
  
  Report this comment
- soybomb315_II
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:08am
  and Medicare part D
  
  Report this comment
- iBeliever
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 1:13am
  If Obama wins are you going to renounce your faith in God?
  
  Report this comment
- MuffySimba
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:37am
  You can add me to that list.
  
  Report this comment
- flipper1073
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:38am
  SOYBOMB
  in case you have not Noticed
  Not a lot of GW Bush fans on here.
  Lot’s of Ronald Reagan Fans
  the Dumbest thing Reagan ever did
  was make George Bush Senior his VP.
  
  Report this comment
Capitolalb
Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:45pm
Every poll has shown Obama winning Ohio, this election is over.

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- Nigel2
  Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:49pm
  Every poll that over-samples demorats do. But Rasmussen has Romney up by 2. And since Romney has a 6% advantage with independents in Ohio, that will overcome at least a 2 point demorat turnout advantage.
  
  Report this comment
- Nigel2
  Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:49pm
  Every poll that over-samples demorats do. But Rasmussen has Romney up by 2. And since Romney has a 6% advantage with independents in Ohio, that will overcome at least a 2 point demorat turnout advantage.
  
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- CatB
  Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:52pm
  Never surrender never give up … I will stick with patriots pulling this off …. unless you are trying to get people not to vote .. and that isn’t going to work .. others like myself have waited 4 LONG years to vote against Obama .. it is nice to also have someone to vote FOR .. R & R 2012!
  
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- Bearcatnation
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:16am
  I live in Cincinnati and I’ve got to say I just don’t see Obama winning. Democrats are in hiding right now. I know the democrats are known for being cheats but I just don’t see how you over come the enthusiasm GOP voters have this year
  
  Report this comment
- The-Monk
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:17am
  Poor little newbie troll Capitolalb will be crying in sadness next week. LMAO@U
  
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- barber2
  Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:41am
  CAP: Considering you refer to ” Romneybots,” me thinks you are a tad bit biased ?! Must be a drone sent from Media Matters or the Obama Re-election campaign. Can also tell by your nasty attitude. What’s with you guys ? The mark of an Obama Democrat : when they aren’t blaming someone , they are insulting someone. Momma didn’t raise you guys right. Or daddy wasn’t around to put the fear of God into you !
  
  Report this comment

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