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Politics

The Top 3 Reasons for Republicans to Be Optimistic About Ohio (and Thus the Election)

Nov. 1, 2012 10:07am
  • Less than a week out, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in polling averages in Ohio
  • These polls arguably oversample Democrats by not taking account of early voting
  • The Democratic turnout strategy is defensive, rather than focused on expanding the map
  • National polls show a clean Republican victory
  • Independents breaking for Romney by double digit margins nationally, by high single digits in Ohio

Ask any election analyst what the chances of a particular presidential candidate will win the election, and their response will almost invariably be the question of whether that candidate will win Ohio. The crucial battleground state carries a whopping 18 electoral college votes and is generally seen as the toss-up to end all toss-ups, though recent public polling has consistently favored President Obama by small margins.

Yet despite the avalanche of these polls over the past few weeks, conservatives remain not only optimistic, but downright chipper, about the state. This is especially true of Ohio Republicans who are actually watching the race play out and seem to believe they have moved steadily into the lead.

Which raises the question: why?

The answer is that Ohio GOP leaders and their allies in the press tell a very different story from the one put forward by polling outlets. What’s more, the conviction with which they tell it, to say nothing of the evidence they marshal, suggests something beyond spin. Specifically, the Ohio GOP stakes its claim to a strong victory on a wide lead with independents and a ground game built to match the Democratic juggernaut that is Organizing for America. They also model the race fundamentally different from their counterparts on the Left, many of whom assume 2008 levels of turnout, and 2008 partisan margins.

And contrary to the accusations of “trutherism” that some on the Left have thrown at the GOP over this narrative and its skepticism of the polls, it is not at all a baseless theory of the election. In fact, it is a theory with about as much data to support it as the Left’s narrative of drastically increased turnout, which is part of the reason many pundits find this election frustratingly difficult to predict. The polling data quite literally supports two equally strong narratives, and neither campaign is going to admit to a disadvantage against its opposition, so the whole thing arrives as a wash.

Many have detailed the Obama campaign’s reasons for optimism in Ohio, making that narrative the dominant one in the media thus far. However, the Romney campaign’s reasons for optimism are usually buried or their reasoning is deliberately left incomplete. As such, the following are what we consider the three best reasons to be optimistic about the Republican party’s chances in Ohio:

3. The state polls

Top Three Reasons For Optimism About Republican Chances in Ohio

The RealClearPolitics average for Ohio (Photo Credit: RCP)

No, really, hear us out on this one. A quick perusal of the current polls making up RealClearPolitics’ average can look depressing for conservatives at first sight. It is, after all, a sea of blue leads. However, dig into the internals and a more complicated picture emerges. In fact, several factors in these polls point to a potential stealth Romney win.

First, rewind a bit to polls taken closer to the beginning of early voting. Specifically, look at the SurveyUSA poll taken on October 17, before the third debate, and two numbers jump out:

Obama’s lead over Romney swells among Ohio voters who have already cast their ballots, 57 percent to 38 percent.  The two are tied among those who haven’t voted yet.

So as of October 17, according to SurveyUSA, the GOP and Democrats were running even in terms of voters who had yet to vote, but Obama was running away with early voters by a nearly 20 point margin. Fast forward to the poll by the same company taken from October 20-22nd and the margin shifts. Obama is still ahead by 19 points, but Romney is leading by two points 46-44, where before he was tied with the President. Fast forward to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, and Obama is leading by a whopping 23 points with those who plan to vote before election day, but Romney is up by an equally stark margin of 9 points among those who will vote on election day.

These numbers, taken from different iterations of the same poll, show a clear trend – the Democratic advantage in early turnout is not absolute, but is rather simply a function of Democrats eating away at what would have been their election day margin. In short, the Democrats’ early turnout is really just cannibalizing what they would have gotten on election day. Their total population of likely voters is not growing, it’s just voting earlier than the Republicans’. What’s more, the lead enjoyed by the Republicans steadily grows at a greater pace than the lead enjoyed by the Democrats, suggesting that the Republicans aren’t just turning out their base, but getting new voters to join the fold.

So why are the Democrats still ahead? Because the number of them who’ve already voted automatically make it into the likely voter screen, whereas Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who have yet to vote are more of an uncertain commodity. In practice, this produces a polling sample that is necessarily skewed toward the Democrats. This explains why, in most of the polls where Obama holds a lead, the sample of Democrats relative to Republicans outperforms even Obama’s blockbuster margin of D+5 in 2008. In fact, in most of the polls where Obama’s lead is outside the margin of error, his party’s advantage can stretch to as high as eight or ning percentage points, suggesting a turnout coup nearly double the scale of 2008. This is, to say the least, a debatable assumption about the composition of Ohio’s electorate.

Now, conservative voters should not get the wrong idea here. This skewing probably didn’t happen by any intentional malice on the part of the polling companies. However, when only nine percent of Americans answer the calls of pollsters to begin with, and a large chunk of them are certain voters because they claim to have already voted, beggars can’t be choosers. The polling companies take what they’re given in crafting their polls, but just because a sample says something doesn’t make it true. Hence, while most of the polls show Obama leading, a tiny fraction show him leading by anything close to outside the margin of error. Hence, one poll’s Obama lead of +2 may turn out to actually be a Romney lead of +1 or +2 on election day if those margins kick in.

So the state polls show Obama’s election day lead eroding at a greater pace than his early voting lead expands, suggesting he’s cannibalizing his voters before election day, and they, in turn, are skewing the sample in a way that suggests a level of Democratic turnout that is highly improbable, if not impossible. This is, as it turns out, precisely what the Ohio GOP believes is happening.

Matt Henderson, spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party, told TheBlaze that “The Democrats have a different kind of turnout model” devoted to turning out reliable voters. He also contests that the GOP is trailing Obama by double digit margins in early voting.

“The Secretary of State mailed 6.9 pieces of early voting applications. 1.3 million voters indicated they’d like a ballot. Since the ballots went out, about 70 percent of those have been returned,” Henderson said. “We’ve been leading, compared to where it was in 2008.”

Highly placed sources in the Ohio Republican Party are even more specific, pointing to Romney campaign internal polls that show the former Massachusetts governor maintaining a 1 to 4 point lead in the state. It would be easy to dismiss this as election year bravado, but once more, the state polls provide  evidence in their internals that this is could, in fact, be the case. However, seeing as this is a topic that forms the brunt of one of our later reasons for optimism, we will leave the discussion of state polls here for now.

#2. The national polls

Here, the evidence for a potential Romney victory requires substantially less explanation. Since the first Presidential debate, Mitt Romney has led or tied President Obama in the average of national polls, with one or two outlying polls showing an Obama lead. Most of these polls converge to a 1 or 2 point lead for Romney, but some show wider margins (as in the case of Gallup, which has shown Romney at or above 50 percent for over two weeks, occasionally leading by as much as 7 points).

Top Three Reasons For Optimism About Republican Chances in Ohio

The Gallup National trendline (Photo Credit: Gallup)

If these polls are right, Romney almost certainly wins the election outright, with a slim chance that he will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. On the other hand, if the state polls are right about the toplines, Romney should lose both. It is to the consternation of pollsters and data junkies everywhere that they cannot both be right.

Analysts like Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight, one of the Left’s more beloved election forecasters (who presently gives Obama an over 75% chance to win the electoral college), have thrown in their lot with the state polls – especially the ones conducted in Ohio. And if you support Obama, that’s precisely what you should do. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a credible case to be made for the opposite approach – a case articulated perhaps best by Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics, who sees merits in both approaches but has leaned slightly more toward a national approach on his Twitter feed:

Among national pollsters, you have a battle-tested group with a long track record performing national polls. Of the 14 pollsters producing national surveys in October, all but three were doing the same in 2004 (although AP used Ipsos as its pollster that year rather than GfK, and I believe a few others may have changed their data-collection companies). Of the 14 pollsters surveying Ohio in October, only four did so in 2004 (five if you count CNN/USAToday/Gallup and CNN/Opinion Research as the same poll).

Pollsters such as ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, Pew, Battleground, and NBC/WSJ are well-funded, well-staffed organizations. It’s not immediately obvious why the Gravises, Purple Strategies and Marists of the world should be trusted as much as them, let alone more. And since virtually none of the present state pollsters were around in 1996 or 2000 (except Rasmussen Reports, which had a terrible year in 2000 and has since overhauled its methodology), it’s even less clear why we should now defer to state poll performance based upon those years.

Finally, remember that in 2008, the national polls were pretty much spot-on; the state polls were off by a couple of points.

So what happens if Trende is right, and these polls are right, and Romney is leading Obama by a few points? If undecideds follow their usual pattern of breaking for the challenger, Romney almost certainly runs the table, taking Ohio, Virginia, Florida and one other state with him. If not, Romney might still eke out a narrow victory on the basis of his existing margin alone. In short, if the national polls are right, the odds are that Romney will unambiguously win, and the only question is by how much. Moreover, unlike the state polls in Ohio, where internal numbers signal potential mathematical problems for Obama’s lead, the internals on the national polls present no such problems for Romney, who can tie Obama even in a situation where the turnout mirrors 2008.

Why? That brings us to reason number…

1. Romney has independent voters locked up

If there’s one area that the state and national polls unequivocally agree on, it’s that Mitt Romney is running away with the independent vote this election cycle. In fact, if almost any of the current numbers are anywhere close to true, it’s difficult to see how Romney loses the election. Romney pollster Neil Newhouse and Political Director Rich Beeson told Politico as much on Wednesday:

Romney political director Rich Beeson said Wednesday that the Obama team’s electoral firewall — aka, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin — is “burning.”

“The firewall that I think they talked about was Iowa, Wisconsin,and Ohio,” he said on a conference call with reporters to discuss the state of the race. “Right now their firewall is burning.”

Romney advisers spoke optimistically about the former Massachusetts governor’s chances next Tuesday, suggesting Romney is up among independents and even that he’ll win Florida by double digits on Election Day.

“The race comes down to independents,” said Romney pollster Neil Newhouse. “We lead among independents.”

Yes, they do. And how. A poll of independent voters nationwide released by Resurgent Republic shows Romney carrying independent voters by a sky high 12 points. President Obama only led John McCain by 8 in 2008. This massive margin may account for another encouraging phenomenon measured by the heavily respected national pollsters Pew and Gallup – namely, that nationwide, Romney is actually leading early voting.

This is equally true in Ohio. Highly placed sources in the Ohio Republican Party told TheBlaze that Romney is leading among independents by double digits in internal tracking polls. This is consistent with the polls released by public polling firms in the state, which show Romney up by margins between 6 points in the most favorable polls to 11+ in the tighter ones.

To overcome numbers like this, Obama would likely need a wave of turnout among the people who went most strongly for him in 2008 – specifically, minorities and young voters – that eclipses even his performance then. In the case of minorities, demographics might make up for the lack of enthusiasm, but in the case of young voters, this is not at all a done deal. In fact, Matt Henderson of the Ohio Republican Party points to young voters as a huge source of decline for the president, citing an article released earlier this month by the Columbus Dispatch.

All of this combines to show a scenario where, in the words of RedState’s Dan McLaughlin, Obama is “toast” in Ohio:

In Ohio, ARG has Obama down 20 with independents, 57-37, SurveyUSA has him down 8, 47-39;TIME has him down 15, 53-38; PPP has him down 7, 49-42; CBS/Quinnipiac has him down 7, 49-42;Gravis has him down 19, 52-33.

Obama has lost independents. He will lose them nationally by easily 5-8 points, and quite possibly well into double digits. And he will lose them in Ohio by at least 5 as well. With no sign that he’s winning the crossover battle, partisan turnout is his only hope.

So is the President “toast?” Time will tell, but there certainly is more than enough math to bolster an aggressive GOP case that the President will be defeated in Ohio, as in the rest of America.

Top Three Reasons For Optimism About Republican Chances in Ohio

The trendline of independent voters’ choices in 1972 (Photo credit: Redstate)

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. And if the Republicans are right, Ohio might just tell Barack Obama he has to go.

In CONTROL, Glenn Beck presents a passionate, fact-based case for guns that reveals why gun control isn’t really about controlling guns at all; it’s about controlling us. Find out more HERE.

Comments (89)

1 2
  • Inkmage
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 4:26pm

    Everyone better get their butts out there to vote for Romney! Help anyone out who needs a ride or whatever who wants to vote for Romney. Speak out if any funny business is going on at voting stations- including defective machines and such.

    Report this comment

    Inkmage  
    • Bluebonnet
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 6:38pm

      TV keeps showing obama slandering Romney and it pizzes me off so much, I’d never give o the time of day. I’m sick of his negativity toward Mitt when he’s barely able to say anything positive about his last 4 years of ruining this Country.
      Even if Mitt were all the hateful things o says, I’d vote for him just to get the user out of office. I put up with a lot of crapola, but when it becomes so blatant, I’m done with it and done with o, period,end. ENOUGH of his lying and passing the buck and being so hateful & negative about Romney. I’m done with ya’ buddy. Get out of OUR White House (NOT YOURS bud)

      Report this comment

      Bluebonnet  
  • blair152
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 4:04pm

    Obama=Carter. Romney=Reagan.

    Report this comment

    blair152  
    • jima9426
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 6:13pm

      The first comparison, I’ll buy. The second, I won’t hold my breath. Reagan was ideologically literate. Romney, a private sector pragmatist, makes no such pretensions. So I don’t imagine Mitt would have ever stood before the Berlin Wall challenging Gorbachev to tear it down. But what do I know?

      Report this comment

      jima9426  
    • Kalish
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 8:57pm

      Romney is way better than obuma, but he is no Reagan

      Report this comment

      Kalish  
  • jefftavolieri
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:15pm

    As an Ohio voter, the biggest problem I see and hear about are Romney’s lies about the auto-industry and how he continues to repeat those lies even though everyone knows he’s lying.

    Report this comment

    jefftavolieri  
    • TSUNAMI_22
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:25pm

      If Obama gets re-elected Ohioans will be manufacturing cups that hold pencils, ear muffs, and trench coats.

      Report this comment

      TSUNAMI_22  
    • Quan-Pham
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:50pm

      You are a Dumb Ohian.

      Report this comment

      Quan-Pham  
    • tiredofbeingtired
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 4:17pm

      hey Jeff you been talking to those 1st graders again..your info is waaaaaaay off.

      Report this comment

      tiredofbeingtired  
    • Voter713
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 6:58pm

      Why not do your homework on obama – 4 years ago we barely knew anything about him now there is LOTS to know. Go to the ontheissues.org and thepoliticalguide.com and read both their stances on MOST of the issues then decide. STOP LISTENING TO THE MEDIA – PLEASE do some homework before you decide. Obama has lied way more on romney that romney on obama in this election.

      Report this comment

      Voter713  
    • Jimizrite
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 7:28pm

      Hey Jeff … stop thinking that Bankruptcy is a “punishment” … I’ve been through it … It protected me from creditors so I could get my life reorganized … It is a help!

      Report this comment

      Jimizrite  
    • pantokrator
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 7:51pm

      Romney has been pretty damn accurate when it comes to the auto industry. There is a mountain of evidence to suggest, but you’re too busy praising your messiah to do your own homework.

      GM, you know, that big auto company Obama used OUR money to bail out has stated that they intend to work with Communist China, and most of their vehicles are manufactured outside the US. It was said by their new CEO (who was appointed in part by Obama) on record, in China admitting that he intends to pretty much move the company’s enitre research and development into China. Look it up and tell me again who’s the liar.

      Report this comment

      pantokrator  
    • SolitudeBliss
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 9:11pm

      As an Ohio Woman Independent voter I cannot believe how well the Democratic brainwashing has taken hold. The actual statistics and numbers are entirely irrelevant. The ‘my family has always voted Democratic just as we’ve always been Union (ie UAW)’ is so strong that it doesn’t matter how badly Obama Fs up, they will vote for him. Get out and VOTE !!!!!!!

      Report this comment

      SolitudeBliss  
  • TSUNAMI_22
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:08pm

    If Ohio is supposed to be a big car manufacturing state, then answer me this: where are all the electronic cars that should be saving the day after this big storm? Where are the Chevy Volts?

    I wonder if cold weather being bad for batteries, or outright power outages might have something to do with it?

    Wise up Ohio. You can make all the vehicles with the money Obama is willing to bail you out with, but re-electing Obama won’t produce people that have the money to buy them off the lots, especially at the nonsensical prices they want for “green friendly” vehicles.

    Maybe instead of making cars you should be making printing presses for the Federal Reserve. At least then you’d have job security.

    Report this comment

    TSUNAMI_22  
  • Ghandi was a Republican
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:58pm

    Calm down people.. Romney runs away when the turnout completes. He will lose most Urban areas because that is what happens with the DEpendents. But in the outlying areas where the “me” complex runs more sparse it is a landslide same as 2010. The 2010 vote was a repudiation of obama and obama policies. Nothing in that regard has changed. America doesn’t want it. Everyone outside the city knows that 20% of people they know who voted for obama in 2008 will actually vote AGAINST him this time. This nightmare called obama is out of REM sleep.

    Report this comment

    Ghandi was a Republican  
    • wowjustwow
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 1:14pm

      I don’t think you’re taking into consideration that a lot of people live in states that were devastated by the hurricane. Many who live in swing states have relatives who live in the above-mentioned states. How these people are being taken care of (in addition to Christie’s praise of Obama) will have its impact. This can’t be underestimated. If you lost your home and you are hearing that the current president is promising to help you, you have to admit…it would affect your feelings.

      Report this comment

      wowjustwow  
    • Ghandi was a Republican
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 2:18pm

      Not! Obama completely ignored the massive Flooding 3 years ago for 2 weeks. Anyone giving obama credit for what he IS SUPPOSED TO BE DOING will have little effect other than highlighting the difference between a Republican and the Alinsky radicals (Lorded over by Obama).
      People meed the economy to be set free and get back to work, or find a job.
      Obama has succeeded in creating “The worst economy since the great depression” As he prophesied right after he got elected and started saying it 1,000 times, driving the economy into a crisis that the troubled asset RELIEF fund (backup cash to calm the markets) had successfully stalled. Then he liquidated the RELIEF FUND, gave it away and made it’s purpose disappear.
      NEVER FORGET! And it will be private charity making sure these people get fed- not FEMA..

      Report this comment

      Ghandi was a Republican  
    • Ghandi was a Republican
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 2:22pm

      PS- The cesspool called NYC is rendered itself mute, as did the State long ago. NJ., The Carolinas. and the Virginias know for a fact that their decimated economies makes this crisis 10 times harder to recover from. The tragic part we did to ourselves.
      Never Forget!

      Report this comment

      Ghandi was a Republican  
    • turkey13
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:17pm

      In our family of Self, Wife, 3 sons and 3 daughter in-laws all registered Democrats and fell for Hope & Change, it is 100% against Obama this time. We don’t like his Change and have lost Hope. We all hane or know someone that has been affected by this administration. Only problem is that Obama will announce a new program on Monday where anyone on wel-fare will get a Apple I-pad to go along with their free phone.

      Report this comment

      turkey13  
    • wowjustwow
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:39pm

      Ghandi, you are missing the point. Despite what you believe, you should look at what others will believe given the hurricane and then adjust your expectations. I just think that when people perceive they are being helped, it changes their behavior.

      Report this comment

      wowjustwow  
  • Jackal7130
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:18pm

    He wont be president TWO elections from now! And TWO MORE DEM adms and we’ll need more than the “black vote” to help us. But I will tell you there are a LOT MORE black closet Romney voters than anyone that doesnt know black folk can imagine. Its FACT because I know some black folks and they arent stupid and they are FED UP too.

    Report this comment

    Jackal7130  
  • Robert999
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:17pm

    What I fear is that Romney will win the popular vote but Obama will win the electoral college – 2000 in reverse. If that happens, what should we do?

    Report this comment

    Robert999  
    • Jackal7130
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:24pm

      RIOT!!!!! lol

      Report this comment

      Jackal7130  
    • Sosorryforyou
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 4:15pm

      Accept it with grace, like the Democrats did in 2000. It was hard to swallow, especially because many didn’t agree with the Supreme Court’s decision, but we accepted it because what was most important was that we remained a lawful and peaceful Country – and we did this without resorting to riots and other acts of violence.

      Report this comment

      Sosorryforyou  
    • jima9426
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 6:24pm

      If Romney’s winning margin is greater than 1%, such a scenario strains mathematical credulity. If Romney wins by the 3-5% that the national popular models predict, there just aren’t enough votes in Obama’s firewall swing states to explain it. So if Romney wins the popular vote by say 4%, then he can do no worse than winning Ohio by 2%.

      Report this comment

      jima9426  
  • DOra Glasberg
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:16pm

    Guess Ryan is going to have to learn to REALLY wash dishes if he loses his seat.

    Report this comment

    DOra Glasberg  
    • Cymry
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:49pm

      don’t worry dora, the staff at the Admiral’s House (Vice President’s residence) will take care of those dishes.

      Report this comment

      Cymry  
  • DeOppressoLiber
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:44am

    I am asking all the independents and libertarians we need you help to turn this around. This is but the first step on a long journey. We can do it but we have to work together. Our great country is at stake.

    ‘I’ve spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That’s how I saw it, and see it still.’”

    It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

    Beamer’s last audible words were “Are you guys ready? Let’

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    DeOppressoLiber  
  • Zeb
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:39am

    (1)Only in America, could politicians talk about the greed of the rich at a $35,000.00 a plate campaign fund-raising event.

    2) Only in America, could people claim that the government still discriminates against black Americans when they have a black President, a black Attorney General, and roughly 18% of the federal workforce is black while only 12% of the population is black.

    3) Only in America, could they have had the two people most responsible for our tax code, Timothy Geithner, the head of the Treasury Department and Charles Rangel who once ran the Ways and Means Committee, BOTH turn out to be tax cheats who are in favor of higher taxes.

    4) Only in America, can they have terrorists kill people in the name of Allah and have the media primarily react by fretting that Muslims might be harmed by the backlash.

    5) Only in America, would they make people who want to legally become American citizens wait for years in their home countries and pay tens of thousands of dollars for the privilege while we discuss letting anyone who sneaks into the country illegally just ‘magically’ become American citizens.

    6) Only in America, could the people who believe in balancing the budget and sticking by the country’s Constitution be thought of as”extremists.”

    7) Only in America, could you need to present a driver’s license to cash a check or buy alcohol, but not to vote.

    8) Only in America, could people demand the government investigate whether oil companies

    Report this comment

    Zeb  
  • proudohiomom
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:22am

    My more accurate and scientific poll says Romney will win Ohio. Here are my findings as I drive through the state I see close to 30% more Romney signs then Obama. Plus the amount of houses I assume will go to Romney because they have signs for Josh Mandel or other conservative candidates, I also factored in empty chairs. The city of “Kent” I will call my margin of error. The most liberal city not on a coast has signs 50/50, but i did spot a very big lifeguard chair painted yellow(made my day).

    Report this comment

    proudohiomom  
    • OhioRifleman
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:55am

      A good observation, Ohio Mom. I see a lot of Mandel signs in yards, but not a lot of Romney signs. Mandel does not draw vitriol (or vandals) as much as Romney does. And I am afraid to put a Romney sticker on, lest someone key my car. It may be a cheap GM beeter, but getting a good paint job is costly.

      Report this comment

      OhioRifleman  
    • wowjustwow
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:36pm

      Is this how the people of this site come to conclusions? Not trying to be insulting, but driving through a town and counting signs? Does that make sense to anyone here? Just wondering.

      Report this comment

      wowjustwow  
    • Cymry
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:41pm

      I am a lifetime Buckeye. Romney owns Ohio. Nothing more needs to be said.

      Report this comment

      Cymry  
    • VRW Conspirator
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 2:01pm

      WOW..
      she was saying that her poll is just as reliable as the national and state pollsters…they are always FULL of it and usually get it wrong…even outside their margins of error….they are statical nightmares when looked at scientifically and mathematically.
      they under and over sample…
      they have no safe guards against false or misleading questions and statements…
      they are commissioned by organizations that have agendas and thus want a result favorable to their opinion going in…(much like scientific research today on the issue of Global Warming/Climate Change and Economics)
      they are driven by “validity” only in so much as it leads to continuing their client base or adding new clients
      so…if I lived in a State…and I saw in my town of 1000 or 10000 or 100,000 that half of the signs said Romney and half said Obama…I would say my town was tied…but if I saw 75% Romney and 25% Obama as I drove around over the last 4 months, then I would say my State was going for Romney …and Obama if the same was true in his favor…
      my sample size would probably be MUCH higher than any of the pollsters and my accuracy MUCH better since “likely voters” and “engaged voters” would be the ones with the signs not just some schmuck that answered the phone and said “yeah I will likely vote this time” but hasn’t voted in 20 years.

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      VRW Conspirator  
    • proudohiomom
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 2:06pm

      “Is this how the people of this site come to conclusions? Not trying to be insulting, but driving through a town and counting signs? Does that make sense to anyone here? Just wondering.”

      It made sense to two other buckeyes so by my poll taking standards it makes sense. I guess you don’t understand humor. I was trying to poke fun at the endless polls that all come up with different results depending on how questions are asked and sampling.

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      proudohiomom  
    • Jeffersonian in CA
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:13pm

      Justwow yourself into next Wednesday you commie.

      Report this comment

      Jeffersonian in CA  
    • wowjustwow
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 3:50pm

      Proudohio, sorry…my bad. I didn’t realize actually.

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      wowjustwow  
    • wowjustwow
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 4:28pm

      Hey JEFFERSONIAN…that is an angry and irrational response to what I said. Lose the anger. It serves nobody. People who hate for the sake of hate never bring about good changes!!

      Report this comment

      wowjustwow  
  • snickers
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:21am

    The UC poll showing Obama up by 2 oversamples the northern part of the state (Cleveland and Akron) compared to the southern part of the state (Cincinnati) 62%/38%. The northern part of the state is the democratic stronghold and the southern part is republican stronghold.

    The CBS/NYT/Quinniapac poll showing Obama up by 5 oversamples democrats compared to republicans by 8 points. I would say these polls actually show Romney leading if the biased nature of the polls is taken into account.

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    snickers  
  • reallyannoyed
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:07am

    The RCP National average currently sits at “tied” yet you call that a “Clean Republican Victory”? Ya’ll are in fantasy land…

    I do like that you’re making your readers all complacent though. It is probably in Glenn Beck’s best interest for Obama to win, since an angry fan base will be more likely to tune into him and buy whatever he is peddling. Gotta admit it makes good business sense for him to keep going on about this supposed landslide we’ll see for Romney in November…

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    reallyannoyed  
    • LIBSALWAYSLIE
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:58pm

      REALLYstupid, your observations are dumb, just plain dumb, and make no sense in any way. Your worthless hero obama is going bye bye in a few days. President Romney, it has a good ring to it, get used to it.

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      LIBSALWAYSLIE  
    • VRW Conspirator
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 1:52pm

      The fact that you think a President Romney will make us all sit down and be quiet is hysterical. We go into this election KNOWING that Romney is not the best Constitutional Conservative in the world. We will be just as aware, just as loud, and just and engaged with his presidency as an Obama second term. The only difference is that with an Obama second term, as with the first, he will only listen to his Marxist/Socialist/Progressive handlers and ignore the American People just like they did when the DC switchboard was slammed for over a week and 70% of the nation was telling their Rep. and Senator to vote NO on Obamacare, which they ignored.
      So we spoke up LOUDER on election day in 2010 and kicked 80 of them out of the House and 7 of them out of the Senate and we will get rid of another 6-8 in the Senate this year and maybe more in the House as well.
      Obama STILL did not get the message and continued with his anti-American onslaught of programs, regulations, and Chicago style gangland politics. Now he has pissed of portions of his own base, especially the Kennedy Democrats and Reagan Democrats, guess who they will be voting for… ROMNEY!! But if Kennedy was running now, he would have to run as a Republican like Scott Brown did and won in MA because the Democratic Party is now the Progressive Party, just ask any of the Blue Dogs…oh wait..you can’t..they all lost to Tea Party GOP guys and gals…

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      VRW Conspirator  
    • Sosorryforyou
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 4:45pm

      Yes – and writer “forgets” to mention that all-the-while Pres. Obama’s early voters are “cannibilizing” his most-likely to vote voters, that Romney has the same problem. He also has early voters “cannibilizing” his most-likely to voter voters in Ohio, too. Where they are tied is with those yet to vote. Pres. Obama is leading with early voters in almost all polls.

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      Sosorryforyou  
  • Female
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:00am

    Arizona-I tried in April to register to vote changing to my married name and from Independent to republican at the DMV. In Oct., I checked my registration, and I was not registered. They seem to be able to successfully drop me as an independent but not get me in as a republican? So, on Oct 9; I again attempted to register as a republican through the DMV this time on-line. Checked my registration yesterday….nope, not registered. My call was transferred to voicemail. I had to call four times to get instructions on how to remedy the problem. Finally, told to get my confirmation e-mail and come-in to the County Recorders to be put on the registration list. At one point I asked whether there have been a lot of problems with this year, they said yes…..

    I called the local paper and left a message w/ my phone number. I was thinking if this is a problem for me, then how many others and maybe people should be warned before Tuesday!?

    BTW my husband and daughter both registered as independents with no problems…..hmm probably nothing right?

    I plan on going down to my local RNC office before going into the recorders just to findout what kind of problems are going on…..

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    Female  
    • for HIS glory
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:39am

      Thanks for sharing and KEEP ON TOP OF THIS!!

      Report this comment

      for HIS glory  
    • VerySeniorCitizen
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:42am

      I’ve noticed that Sandy (remember the storm?) has now been evicted from these pages! And I haven’t found ANY story of Governor Christie working with the President in their DUAL roles – working the way that our leaders are supposed to work (together) for the benefit of all – WITHOUT regard to politics!

      Has anyone considered that Romney’s ‘food drive’ creates more problems than it solves. As a veteran VOLUNTEER at many of these kinds of catastrophes I doubt that ANY thought was given to the ‘LOGISTICS’ needed for ‘on-site’ volunteers having to make/take time to ‘inventory, sort, re-route or discard anything that is damaged’ from the load of ‘mixed’ items that Romney has forwarded. And since a truck-load of mixed merchandise which might include diapers and baby food, school supplies and children’s shoes – are all USELESS when delivered to a shelter which houses mostly adults and the elderly.

      Donations of MONEY, on the other hand, is what the Red Cross and Salvation Army are begging for. They need to be able to get the correct emergency supplies to the places where they are needed WITHOUT having volunteers spending hours sorting items. Those volunteers should be helping the victims of the catastrophe in other ways.

      I have made my donations to both the Red Cross AND the Salvation Army (actually more than I felt I could afford from my Social Security) but we must all remember. ‘There, but for the grace of god – go I’ !!

      Everybody – please

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      VerySeniorCitizen  
    • anothercomment
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 1:03pm

      @VERYSENIORCITIZEN
      Yes, we are acutely aware of Sandy and the victims are in our prayers. Apparently you’ve missed the story on Sandy where the posts revealed that the Red Cross CEO is paid $500,000 a year. Furthermore, from other post, the Red Cross has not shown up in these devastated areas. I commend your volunteerism, but that is how the Red Cross makes the money – by campaigning for donations, yet the people who work so very hard are for the Red Cross are VOLUNTEERS, while the CEO makes $500,000 a year. From what I’ve read the Salvation Army may be a better source to donate money, but personally I’ve made my donation to MERCURYONE.ORG. 100% of the donation will go to relief efforts.

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      anothercomment  
  • pepsicolakid
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:59am

    Amen! Keep praying and be prepared for ANYTHING!

    Report this comment

    pepsicolakid  
    • BuckleyMan
      Posted on November 3, 2012 at 1:57pm

      VerySenior ; I count 9 stories on the Blaze front page as well as a little tab about “Sandy” on the Hot Topics area, so I’m not sure what you are talking about…Also, last report from Forbes & Charity Navigator shows Red Cross CEO Gail McGovern’s 2010 salary was $1,032,022 …Red Cross wants money instead of items because they have favored vendors for the supplies they hand out. I also find it odd that anytime I’ve donated to Salvation Army, Catholic Charities, etc., they didn’t turn their collective noses up at it or use the excuse that they didn’t have time to sort, clean, etc. Romney could have kept campaigning, but turned to what he has done all his life, (unlike Obamao)…helping others is always the best way to help yourself. Obama turned tragedy into a photo-op, yet, who did the MSM sneer at?

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      BuckleyMan  
  • Jackal7130
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:58am

    I been around 52 years and as much as I dont believe in jinxing things and I am an eternal pessimist I have been telling folks that if they thought barry had a HUGE turnout in 08 NOTHING will rival what you will see next week. I HATE saying this but I think commie gets the beating of his life-to date, cuz we are gunna get him for Benghazi!

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    Jackal7130  
    • desert buckeye
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:11am

      American voters’ rallying cry: “REMEMBER BENGHAZI!”
      Dump this freakin commie bast**d!

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      desert buckeye  
  • The_Almighty_Creestof
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:47am

    REASON #4
    The Democrats failed to convince voters that it is really “O’Bama” and he is Black-Irish.

    Report this comment

    The_Almighty_Creestof  
  • Gonzo
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:41am

    Monday, fast and pray people.

    Report this comment

    Gonzo  
  • hauschild
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:37am

    It’s a brilliant plan by leftists. So, when Romney wins, because all these polls showed Obama ahead in all the states that he actually is not, there will be excuses to cry foul, and America’s finest will be out looting and pillaging and what not.

    There are no means that these people will not justify to achieve their ends.

    Report this comment

    hauschild  
  • Eric_The_Red_State
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:33am

    I pray to the good Lord every day that He protect the United States of America from the unmitigated assault on our Liberty from the Democratic poison that freeloading parasites have tried to thrust on the rest of the good people of this country.

    We outnumber them…… and we will be SILENT NO MORE.

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    Eric_The_Red_State  
    • Gonzo
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:58am

      I’m worried that we are beyond God’s mercy.
      Jeremiah 14 11 Then the Lord said to me, “Do not pray for the well-being of this people. 12 Although they fast, I will not listen to their cry; though they offer burnt offerings and grain offerings, I will not accept them. Instead, I will destroy them with the sword, famine and plague.”
      I guess we’ll know next week.

      Report this comment

      Gonzo  
    • Spyderco
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 1:53pm

      Gonzo,
      I have also feared that we are so far gone that He would judge against us. Remember that His love and grace is endless and for it is by His grace we are saved.

      Report this comment

      Spyderco  
  • doomytram
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:29am

    What’s to not be optimistic about? We have Obozo who is the worst most corrupt evil lying green eared re-distributionist, leftist, America Hating, Muslim Sympathizing, God and Jew removal from lexicon liberal. Vs. A Humble Truthful Hard working Moderate to Conservative America Loving Businessman who can fix the fact that the country borrows 43 cents of every dollar we spend. Obozo has the Media and Romney has the people. The Media Lies and know one with anything resembling a functioning brain votes for Obozo.

    Report this comment

    doomytram  
  • Wdawg
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:21am

    Romney will not win Ohio. Gov. Kasich pissed too many people off with his union busting last year. SB 5 comes back to haunt the GOP.

    Report this comment

    Wdawg  
    • barber2
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:27am

      Malarkey….

      Report this comment

      barber2  
    • Recceman90
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:30am

      Too bad that “Union Busting” bill is working and putting more Ohioians back to work. I am sure the press is very forthcoming with that little tidbit of information!

      Report this comment

      Recceman90  
    • DOra Glasberg
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:49am

      Romney thought he could con his way into the White House.
      His previous FEMA comment were the nail in his coffin.
      And that ridiculous photo op, after Ryan’s “dish-washing” photo op
      was an insult to even stupid people.

      Report this comment

      DOra Glasberg  
    • IAMMADDOG
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:03am

      Shut up already Dora. Its already been established that you have no clue whatsoever.

      Report this comment

      IAMMADDOG  
    • Gonzo
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 11:10am

      Dora, after watching Obama con his way in, who can blame him for thinking it’s possible? Hope and Change..what a crock.

      Report this comment

      Gonzo  
    • Avidmonkey
      Posted on November 1, 2012 at 12:03pm

      I live in Ohio. I travel much of central Ohio, Columbus and up the I-71 corridor. While it is only anecdotal evidence, I can tell you that Romney signs outnumber Obama signs 4:1. People are even making their own 4×8 plywood signs, painting them with the Romney-Ryan logo. Compared to the 2008 election, there is an enthusiasm here for Mitt that was lacking for McCain.
      OHIO will become a RED STATE in five days. Don’t doubt it.

      Report this comment

      Avidmonkey  
  • Proverbs17-12NLT
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:15am

    Amazing how much manipulating, lying and covering up a billion dollars will buy you these days.

    Report this comment

    Proverbs17-12NLT  
  • marvlus
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:12am

    Ohio may not be the needed state this year for the Republicans to win. A win would be nice, but maybe not necessary.

    Report this comment

    marvlus  
  • gyro
    Posted on November 1, 2012 at 10:11am

    Thats to complicated to read fast ===> notes please

    Report this comment

    gyro  
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