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Romney Campaign Internal Poll Has Him Up by Point in Ohio, Tied in Wisc. & Pa.

Nov. 5, 2012 5:42pm Becket Adams

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is ahead of his opponent by one point in Ohio (18 electoral votes [EVs]) and is all tied up in Pennsylvania (20 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs), according to internal polling data provided to Toby Harden of MailOnline by a Republican source.

“Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire [4 EVs], two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania,” Harden reports.

“If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are correct — and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama — then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President,” he adds.

As of this writing, most polls show President Obama with an edge in Nevada (6 EVs) and early voting data shows he will most like carry the state.

“Romney is to campaign in Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on election day, reflecting the tightness of the race in Ohio and the tantalising prospect of success in Pennsylvania, which has not gone Republican in a presidential campaign for 24 years,” the MailOnline report continues.

Most polling data shows President Obama up in Ohio, but the Romney campaign insists that a combination of Democrat oversampling and a failure to take Republican enthusiasm into consideration has skewed the results. They maintain the GOP candidate is actually ahead by one percentage point in the Buckeye State.

“The most dramatic shift in the Romney campaign’s internal polling has been in Wisconsin, which has moved from being eight points down to pulling level. President Barack Obama is campaigning in the state on the eve of election day,” the MailOnline report continues.

“A surprise Romney win in Pennsylvania … would almost certainly be a fatal blow to Obama’s re-election hopes. If Romney took Wisconsin, that would offer him a credible path to victory without winning Ohio,” the report adds.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign has every confidence the former Massachusetts governor will carry Florida (29 EVs), North Carolina (15 Evs), and Virginia (13 EVs).

“Many Republicans party officials are less bullish about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than the Romney campaign, believing their nominee will probably fall short there,” Harden concludes, “setting up a showdown in Ohio, which has 18 electoral college votes and decided the 2004 election for President George W. Bush.”

Here’s what the election will look like is the new internal polling data is accurate [courtesy Real Clear Politics]:

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All photos courtesy the AP.

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Comments (64)

Ivebeenblazed
Posted on November 9, 2012 at 8:38am
Nobody took into consideration the Chicago machine, that is worth 5 points in the polls…Look at Cleveland, Ohio….more people voted for Obama than were registered! Romney got only a handful of votes…Look what Allen West is going through in West Palm Beach…..nobody wants to talk about this stuff…How bout Jesse Jackson Jr getting 70% of the vote???? LOL

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Bronco II
Posted on November 6, 2012 at 4:31pm
Well Glenn and all here I just finished voting here in my little town in Fl it was great no trouble line a little long but they called people by groups example letters S through Z and so I was only in line about five minutes it was very organized and the people in line were talking to each other and smiling it was great to see such a good turnout and they were still coming as I was leaving and many young people that was great to see that brought a smile to my face regardless who they were voting for.I prayed before I went in and when I came out and said THANK YOU FATHER for watching over us and keeping it peaceful.Thank you for all Your Blessings.Thank you Glenn and others who have tirelessly providing and giving us information for us to do our own homework and I did as I did in all the years I voted it’s easier now with the net and with wonderful people like you who cares and loves this great country.GOD BLESS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY.Thank you Tanya and your wonderful children for sharing your husband and Dad with America he is GODS blessing to us all.

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Capitolalb
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:56pm
Hope Glen has enough tears for tomorrow night, he will need them. Obama will have over 300 EC votes.

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- anomnomnommm
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 11:06pm
  The only thing more biased than The Blaze is the campaigns own internal poll numbers the day before the election… Really helpful.
  
  Report this comment
- bobsmallcraft
  Posted on November 6, 2012 at 6:39am
  I think you got that backwards, it’s Romney in a landslide. Read fresh political commentary at: http://smallcraftadvisorychronicles.blogspot.com/
  
  Report this comment
- Hemhum95
  Posted on November 6, 2012 at 8:45am
  Wrong. I live in Cincinnati area (btw, named after the Society of Cincinnati, which is America’s oldest patriotic organization of which George Washington served as president) and we are known as a conservative area, with church steeples on every block. God is hearing our prayers, and we are the heart of Ohio! Mitt will be America’s new leader!
  
  Report this comment
jujubeebee
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:56pm
Tell Billy Hallowell.

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Oneirishman
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 8:07pm
Okay people time to start calling the man President Romney. And the idiot Former President Obama.

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- progressiveslayer
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 8:19pm
  Marxist mulatto POS fraud heathen bastard? Sorry I couldn’t resist.
  
  Report this comment
- BODYBAG
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 8:23pm
  Barack Obama can not defeat Mitt Reagan
  http://www.votemittreagan.com/
  
  It really is like 1980 all over again. The skewed media polls in October of 1980 made it look like Jimmy Carter was running strong against Ronald Reagan who was about to crush Carter in a landslide. But this year is different. Barack Obama is by far the worst president in the history of the country. Obama is the only president in our life times who has actually thwarted, via his economically ignorant policies, what could have been a robust recovery.
  
  We also have a president who is entirely clueless, totally out of touch and is so ideologically bigoted that he couldn’t care less what affects his failed far left policies have on families and small businesses. This president has absolutely no sympathy or empathy for the victims of the economic destruction he has caused. In that he borders on showing symptoms of being a SOCIOPATH.
  
  Report this comment
- Socially-Liberal-Fiscally-Moderate
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 9:06pm
  Yes an internal Romney poll is truly accurate.
  
  How come almost every other legitmate polling source has Obama with a slight edge.
  
  I am not saying he will definitely win, but this electoral map is malarky.
  
  Report this comment
- BODYBAG
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 9:17pm
  @SOCIALLY-LIBERAL-FISCALLY-MODERATE
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 9:06pm
  How come almost every other legitmate polling source has Obama with a slight edge.
  ———————————————————
  EXAMPLE:
  CNN [communnist news network] latest National Poll uses a polling sample that is +11 DEM
  which is MORE than 2008. They’re ALL doing that. No way.
  
  As Chris Berman would say —— C’mon Man
  Who you tryin’ to BS ?
  
  Report this comment
- Max jones
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:25pm
  If The election were close, the media would have Obama way ahead…as it is they have a toss up……That tells me 300+ electoral votes.
  
  Report this comment
progressiveslayer
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 8:00pm
Taxpayers when you go to the polls keep this OBAMAZOMBIE in mind,you’ll see your tax dollars hard at work supporting a worthless POS. If Barry wins these parasites will take many more billions in your tax dollars. Ahh can you smell it? Redistribution of wealth smells like the death of a republic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Syh9ltkDOvA

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ohiograndma
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:53pm
Hubby just got home and I asked him if there was any political talk at his watering hole.
“Naw. Everybody agreed weeks ago it’s gonna be a landslide for Romney.”
I put some faith in this poll, because this is a liberal stronghold and the watering hole poll is a mix of mostly men who hale from blue collar, to white collar, to college profs.
Go Romney Ryan!

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- Capitolalb
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:57pm
  Ohio is Obama Country.
  
  Report this comment
j_blaze14
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:43pm
the poles are as accurate as the predictions the gulf oil would spread to the atlantic. romney already won. just watch the senate votes, and watch what the progressives turn into after this “historic” loss tomorrow. in the lame duck they will try some shots at us but in the background van or someone will try to hijak the real grass movement of the tea party.

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- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 11:19pm
  Romney and most of the Republicans in congress are progressives.
  
  Report this comment
Inkmage
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:12pm
Everyone, no matter where you live GET OUT THERE AND VOTE FOR ROMNEY! Also get others to support him, help anyone voting for Romney get to a voting site if they need transportation. Don’t stay home, even if the weather is crazy!

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- encinom
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:36pm
  Why vote for a candidate that believes nearly half of the country doesn’t matter, a candidate that has no idea what the truth is, will lie so bad that companies will go public to set the record straight, a candidate that believe only the little people pay taxes.
  
  Unless you are an idiot or a billionaire there is no reason for a sane person to vote for Romney.
  
  Report this comment
- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:43pm
  No thank you. He doesn’t care about my rights and the Libertarians only need 5% of the popular vote and the two party sham is over for good in this country. Besides no one can tell me which socialist policies Mitt has proposed to get rid of if he’s elected.
  
  Report this comment
- nocalifornia
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:51pm
  Well, there you go again ENCINOM with that negativity lol. You have to be one of the dumbest trolls on the move on payroll. If you had one ounce of common sense you would know that Romney will be the next President and the republicans will still control the house, and the senate will be an even split or maybe a +1 advantage for the republicans. The country is moving back to the center right and you just cant stand it can you?
  
  Report this comment
- Max jones
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:18pm
  ENCINOM….Its the economy,stupid….. no amount of “divide and conquer” constituency politics will separate the vast majority from their rational self-interest. Most women will never be in the market for abortions, but they will be in the market for a job.
  
  Report this comment
- Max jones
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:34pm
  JUST ANGRY…Which of those programs are you set against most firmly, and how are these things affecting us right now.
  
  Report this comment
- Uranium Wedge
  Posted on November 6, 2012 at 12:38am
  Who or what is an ENCINOM?….
  
  Report this comment
- justangry
  Posted on November 6, 2012 at 10:37am
  @Max jones, How about everything that costs money we don’t have? You do realize to pay for it they steal money from us by devaluing our currency, right?
  
  Report this comment
BODYBAG
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:46pm
If you’re worried or nervous about tomorrow —- dont lose heart. Stay the course.
As much as the left and the ENTIRE Pravda media apparatus are trying to sway the whole thing
THIS little communication gives you a clue into whats going to happen tomorrow —–

Remember the Progressive maggot recently who stated that Romney had “shot his wad” ????
Remember everything that comes out of a progressive’s mouth is actually what THEY”RE doing.
LMAO !!!!!!!!

Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls
http://politicker.com/2012/11/obama-campaign-to-supporters-dont-panic-over-early-exit-polls/

“My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.”

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- progressiveslayer
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:19pm
  BAG I share your optimism because I know the propagandist pigs in the msm all work for the Marxist mulatto POS currently disgracing the office he fraudulently holds. When the POS candyass coward is defeated his drones will riot because of their irrational fear that Romney will dismantle the welfare state.
  Their intelligence is severely limited and they operate on a base instinct of violence when things don’t go their way so make sure you have plenty of ammo.
  
  Report this comment
- encinom
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:37pm
  progressiveslayer
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:19pm
  
  BAG I share your optimism because I know the propagandist pigs in the msm all work for the Marxist mulatto POS currently disgracing the office he fraudulently holds.
  
  _________________________
  
  Can’t stand the black man in the White House. You will lose cause you no longer represent America, your America began to die with Jim Crow.
  
  Report this comment
- progressiveslayer
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:47pm
  Encinom He isn’t black you idiot he’s mulatto and I detest him because he’s a Marxist mulatto POS fraud. He wasn’t raised here and he detests this country as much as I detest him and his brain dead OBAMAZOMBIE followers. Face it OBAMAZOMBIE your boy king is getting his skinny Marxist ass fired.
  
  Report this comment
- BODYBAG
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 8:20pm
  @PROGRESSIVESLAYER
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:19pm
  BAG I share your optimism because I know the propagandist pigs in the msm all work for the Marxist mulatto POS currently disgracing the office he fraudulently holds. When the POS candyass coward is defeated his drones will riot because of their irrational fear that Romney will dismantle the welfare state.
  —————————————-
  Yup. No need to worry. All you have to do is pay attention and you can see the signs already.
  Romney will end tomorrow with a crushing victory and we’ll also take the Senate.
  350 Electoral votes. Mandate sized.
  I saw on another thread Gonzo getting a little nervous —– Just be calm and watch. The silent
  majority will create and avalanche tomorrow.
  
  As hard as the MSM is trying to convince everyone its so tight —- right now it isnt even close.
  
  Larry Sabato is a hack. Some people even think that Romney will take NM and even Illinois !!!!!!
  
  Watch this:
  http://www.dickmorris.com/prediction-dick-morris-tv-special-election-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
  
  Senate Map.
  http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/Maps/Nov05-s.html
  The big Romney win would carry the 4 “ties”. Only 3 are needed to take full control
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/08/27/the-fixs-senate-race-ratings-map-is-here/
  
  Report this comment
- Max jones
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:55pm
  ENCINOM….Wow , ha ha, I just love you man…….I would hate…yessir…righteous Christian hate; hate Obama if he was purple. I would hate him. I would hate him as matter of MORALITY. The man is a liar and is not anything he says he is. His whole persona is cut from whole cloth, from his origins to his education, even his parentage. There is no truth in him, he could not speak truth, now, if your life depended on it. And what you don’t realize is ,….it does!
  
  Report this comment
- Capitolalb
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 11:02pm
  The Romney people are dazed and confused, one day until defeat. Obama will win Virginia and then the party is over for Romney. Will be an early night.
  
  Report this comment
Gregb
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:16pm
Regime Change…
Not one of revenge, but one of LOVE for Country!!!

Romney/Ryan – landslide – tomorrow!!!!

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- circleDwagons
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:30pm
  Love of Country and Constitution, sounds like Ron Paul
  
  Report this comment
SocialistSlayer
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:13pm
November 6th – Tomorrow – Is America’s new Independence Day – Romney takes back America and the Communist will be defeated ! Ding Dong the Wicked Communist will be gone !

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- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:45pm
  I’d think our second declaration of Independence would be accompanied by a restoration of our rights.
  
  Report this comment
TheReasonableLib
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:11pm
Only one other time in history have republicans out performed democrats in a presidential election. Yet somehow in this election Republicans will have such a massive turnout it will nullify this? And this is all based on nothing more than speculation and the candidate’s own polls? Get outta here! I will love this place on Wednesday!!!!

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- SocialistSlayer
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:14pm
  Quit trying to re-write history Mr. Communist !
  
  Report this comment
- TheReasonableLib
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:15pm
  I have to issue a correction here. Republican turnout has NEVER beat Democrat turnout, you only managed to match it one year in 2004.
  
  Report this comment
- TIME_2_END_THE_PAUL_CAMPAIGN_IN_12
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:24pm
  Q: What do you get when you offer a ReasonableLib a penny for his thoughts?
  
  A: Change.
  
  Report this comment
- Nancys Red Diaper Doper Babies
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:58pm
  So 2010 obviously never happened in the mind of a reasonable lib.
  
  Report this comment
- TIME_2_END_THE_PAUL_CAMPAIGN_IN_12
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:13pm
  @NANCY’S RED D D B…
  
  Don’t confuse THEREASONABELIB… you’ll make it unreasonable and give it irrital bowel…
  
  Report this comment
- TheReasonableLib
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:19pm
  @ Nancy:
  You people don’t read much, do you? PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
  
  Report this comment
- progressiveslayer
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:22pm
  Your name is an oxymoron and I urge you and all other OBAMAZOMBIES to get out and vote on November 13th.
  
  Report this comment
- Max jones
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 11:13pm
  REASONABLELIB…..I see what you are saying, but this season is flavored differently because of the religious involvement, and the obvious Godlessness of the pretender Barack….
  Evangelical Christians have traditionally avoided the politics of secular America, but because Barack has exposed himself to be a faux Christian and won’t divulge his mysterious past. They trust him, less than Romney and fear his agenda is not favorable concerning their Christian identity.they are turning out to vote, and if half show up at the polls, that is 8 million voters…. That is 9-10% of probable voters. This is morality driven…anti gay, anti abortion anti-OBAMA….anti LIE.
  
  Report this comment
RedeyeBlind
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 5:54pm
I have one word for you (everyone) and that word is….

VOTE!

Peace and Love

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- gyro
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:12pm
  Winner
  
  Report this comment
Banter
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 5:52pm
The only polls that matter. Come on Ohio.

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- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:05pm
  I wouldn’t bank on Ohio. I’m no expert though.
  
  Report this comment
- OhioRifleman
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:12pm
  Ohio is looking strong right now. Lots of Mandel and even some Romney signs up. Even a goodly portion in the liberal hell-holes.
  
  Report this comment
- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:49pm
  @OhioRifleman, As for signs… I’m seeing a split in the suburbs of Columbus. Romney dominating rural areas and Obama dominating the inner city. I am going to try an help you get Josh Mandel in the Senate although my gut is telling me not to trust him.
  
  Report this comment
- OhioRifleman
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:02pm
  Mandel talks a good game. Then again, they all talk a good game. The question comes down to who sticks closest to it.
  
  It will be worth it to see what comes out the other side tomorrow…
  
  Report this comment
- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 8:33pm
  He did talk about reducing our overseas bases, which I like, to save money. What I’m concerned with is if he’ll be another GOP shill that cares nothing about our rights. I tried questioning him on a few different formats and was ignored. Of course, Sherrod Brown doesn’t give a crap about our rights, so it’s an easy choice. Also there wasn’t a single pac add that didn’t harp on his service. I’m all for telling the public what is going on over there. I’m not fine with using it as a tool for political gain.
  
  Report this comment
Fatheroftwo
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 5:50pm
Don’t take anything for granted people! Just get out there and vote, then ask God for His blessings!

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- YAHUSHUAHRULES
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:45pm
  Good Word.
  An even this late if someone needs motivation this will do it. May even change some hearts
  http://vimeo.com/52009124?action=share&ref=nf
  
  Report this comment
I SPY
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 5:50pm
Moochelle, pack your bags.

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Gonzo
Posted on November 5, 2012 at 5:48pm
Come on Ohio, wake the heck up!

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- The-Monk
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 5:55pm
  Hi Gonzo,
  
  Song for Glen Doherty, Sean Smith, Chris Stevens, & Ty Woods
  
  http://gulagbound.com/35619/song-for-glen-doherty-sean-smith-chris-stevens-ty-woods/
  
  Report this comment
- Fatheroftwo
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:01pm
  Hi MONK You touch the heart and soul of it!!! Haven’t heard that one in a long time!! Thanks!
  
  Report this comment
- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:02pm
  It’s been suggested that Ohio will come down to Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and that Romney’s buddies from Bain have ties with the company that provides the voting machines there and several other southwestern Ohio Counties.
  
  Report this comment
- gyro
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 6:13pm
  put a light in the window tonight
  
  Report this comment
- Capitolalb
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:59pm
  and vote Obama.
  
  Report this comment
- justangry
  Posted on November 5, 2012 at 11:20pm
  @Capitolalb, Obama is a murdering tyrant that doesn’t think you have any rights. Why would you support that? You do realize he took you ‘forward’ to before the Magna Carta was signed in 1215, right?
  
  Report this comment

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