Romney Internal Polling Has him Ahead in Ohio and Tied in Wisc. & Pa.AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is ahead of his opponent by one point in Ohio (18 electoral votes [EVs]) and is all tied up in Pennsylvania (20 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs), according to internal polling data provided to Toby Harden of MailOnline by a Republican source.

“Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire [4 EVs], two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania,” Harden reports.

“If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are correct — and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama — then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President,” he adds.

As of this writing, most polls show President Obama with an edge in Nevada (6 EVs) and early voting data shows he will most like carry the state.

“Romney is to campaign in Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on election day, reflecting the tightness of the race in Ohio and the tantalising prospect of success in Pennsylvania, which has not gone Republican in a presidential campaign for 24 years,” the MailOnline report continues.

Romney Internal Polling Has him Ahead in Ohio and Tied in Wisc. & Pa.AP

Most polling data shows President Obama up in Ohio, but the Romney campaign insists that a combination of Democrat oversampling and a failure to take Republican enthusiasm into consideration has skewed the results. They maintain the GOP candidate is actually ahead by one percentage point in the Buckeye State.

“The most dramatic shift in the Romney campaign’s internal polling has been in Wisconsin, which has moved from being eight points down to pulling level. President Barack Obama is campaigning in the state on the eve of election day,” the MailOnline report continues.

“A surprise Romney win in Pennsylvania … would almost certainly be a fatal blow to Obama’s re-election hopes. If Romney took Wisconsin, that would offer him a credible path to victory without winning Ohio,” the report adds.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign has every confidence the former Massachusetts governor will carry Florida (29 EVs), North Carolina (15 Evs), and Virginia (13 EVs).

Romney Internal Polling Has him Ahead in Ohio and Tied in Wisc. & Pa.AP

“Many Republicans party officials are less bullish about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than the Romney campaign, believing their nominee will probably fall short there,” Harden concludes, “setting up a showdown in Ohio, which has 18 electoral college votes and decided the 2004 election for President George W. Bush.”

Here’s what the election will look like is the new internal polling data is accurate [courtesy Real Clear Politics]:

Romney Internal Polling Has him Ahead in Ohio and Tied in Wisc. & Pa.

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All photos courtesy the AP.