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This Is a Recap of America’s Changing Demographics & How They Will Impact the GOP in Future Elections

Nov. 12, 2012 7:06am

The below analysis was conducted by The Associated Press.

WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s not just the economy, stupid. It’s the demographics – the changing face of America.

The 2012 elections drove home trends that have been embedded in the fine print of birth and death rates, immigration statistics and census charts for years.

America is rapidly getting more diverse, and, more gradually, so is its electorate.

Nonwhites made up 28 percent of the electorate this year, compared with 20 percent in 2000. Much of that growth is coming from Hispanics.

AP: These Are the Changing Demographics That Will Impact Elections

FILE – This Nov. 6, 2012 file photo shows voters lined up in the dark to beat the 7:00 p.m. deadline to cast their ballots at a polling station in Miami. It’s not just the economy. It’s the demographics _ the changing face of America. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee, File)

The trend has worked to the advantage of President Barack Obama two elections in a row now and is not lost on Republicans poring over the details of Tuesday’s results.

Obama captured a commanding 80 percent of the growing ranks of nonwhite voters in 2012, just as he did in 2008. Republican Mitt Romney won 59 percent of non-Hispanic whites.

Romney couldn’t win even though he dominated among white men and outperformed 2008 nominee John McCain with that group. It’s an ever-shrinking slice of the electorate and of America writ large.

White men made up 34 percent of the electorate this year, down from 46 percent in 1972.

“The new electorate is a lagging indicator of the next America,” says Paul Taylor of the Pew Research Center. “We are mid-passage in a century-long journey from the middle of the last century, when we were nearly a 90 percent white nation, to the middle of this coming century, when we will be a majority-minority nation.”

Another trend that will be shaping the future electorate is the stronger influence of single women. They vote differently from men and from women who are married. Fifty-four percent of single women call themselves Democrats; 36 percent of married women do.

With women marrying later and divorcing more, single women made up 23 percent of voters in the 2012 election, compared with 19 percent in 2000.

The changing electorate has huge implications for public policy and politics.

Suddenly, immigration overhaul seems a lot more important, for one thing.

Ask white voters about the proper role of government, for another, and 60 percent think it should do less. Ask Hispanics the same question, and 58 percent think the government should do more, as do 73 percent of blacks, exit polls show.

AP: These Are the Changing Demographics That Will Impact Elections

Paige Scharps, of Galena, Ill., exits a voting booth after filling out her ballot at the Vinegar Hill, Ill., Town Hall Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012.Β Credit: AP

You can hear it in the voice of Alicia Perez, a 31-year-old immigration attorney who voted last week at a preschool in Ysleta, Texas.

“I trust the government to take care of us,” she said. “I don’t trust the Republican Party to take care of people.”

Sure, the election’s biggest issue, the economy, affects everyone. But the voters deciding who should tackle it were quite different from the makeup of the 1992 “It’s the economy, stupid” race that elected Democrat Bill Clinton as president.

Look no further than the battleground states of Campaign 2012 for political ramifications flowing from the country’s changing demographics.

New Western states have emerged as battlegrounds as the Hispanic population there grows. In Nevada, for example, white voters made up 80 percent of the electorate in 2000; now they’re at 64 percent. The share of Hispanics in the state’s electorate has grown to 19 percent; Obama won 70 percent of their votes.

Obama won most of the battlegrounds with a message that was more in sync than Romney’s with minorities, women and younger voters, and by carefully targeting his grassroots mobilizing efforts to reach those groups.

In North Carolina, where Romney narrowly defeated Obama, 42 percent of black voters said they had been contacted on behalf of Obama, compared with just 26 percent of whites, exit polls showed. Obama got just 31 percent of the state’s white vote, but managed to keep it competitive by claiming 96 percent of black voters and 68 percent of Hispanics.

Young voters in the state, two-thirds of whom backed Obama, also were more often the target of Obama’s campaign than Romney’s: 35 percent said they were contacted by Obama, 11 percent by Romney. Among senior citizens, two-thirds of whom voted Republican, 33 percent were contacted by Obama, 34 percent by Romney.

Howard University sociologist Roderick Harrison, former chief of racial statistics at the Census Bureau, said Obama’s campaign strategists proved themselves to be “excellent demographers.”

“They have put together a coalition of populations that will eventually become the majority or are marching toward majority status in the population, and populations without whom it will be very difficult to win national elections and some statewide elections, particularly in states with large black and Hispanic populations,” Harrison said.

One way to see the trend is to look at the diversity of young voters. Among voters under 30 years old this year, only 58 percent are white. Among senior voters, 87 percent are white.

Brookings Institution demographer William H. Frey says policymakers and politicians need to prepare for a growing “cultural generation gap.”

“Both parties are getting the message that this is a new age and a new America,” says Frey. “Finally, the politics is catching up with the demography.”

Just as Republicans need to do a better job of attracting Hispanics, says Frey, Democrats need to do more to reach out to whites.

The face of Congress is changing more slowly than the electorate or the population, but changing it is.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California was happy to highlight the news that for the first time in history, more than half the members of her caucus next year will be women, black, Hispanic or Asian. She said it “reflects the great diversity and strength of our nation.”

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, whose caucus is far more white and male, said Republicans need to learn to “speak to all Americans – you know, not just to people who look like us and act like us.”

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, one of the GOP’s most prominent black women, said the party needs to understand that “the changing demographics in the country really necessitate an even bigger tent for the Republican Party.”

“Clearly we are losing important segments of that electorate and what we have to do is to appeal to those people not as identity groups but understanding that if you can get the identity issue out of the way, then you can appeal on the broader issues that all Americans share a concern for,” she said.

All sides know the demographic trends are sure to become more pronounced in the future.

In the past year, minority babies outnumbered white newborns for the first time in U.S. history. By midcentury, Hispanics, blacks, Asians and multiracial people combined will become the majority of the U.S.

Since 2000, the Hispanic and Asian populations have grown by more than 40 percent, fueled by increased immigration of younger people as well as more births.

Currently, Hispanics are the largest minority group and make up 17 percent of the U.S. population, compared with 12 percent for blacks and 5 percent for Asians. Together minorities now make up more than 36 percent of the population.

Hispanics will make up roughly 30 percent of the U.S. by midcentury, while the African-American share is expected to remain unchanged at 12 percent. Asian-Americans will grow to roughly 8 percent of the U.S.

“The minorities will vote,” said demographer Frey. “The question is will their vote be split more across the two parties than it was this time?”

For both Republicans and Democrats, he said, the 2012 election is a wake-up call that will echo through the decades.

–

Related:

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Comments (71)

1 2
  • mastice
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 9:16am

    β€œI trust the government to take care of us,”

    There’s the problem…

    Report this comment

    mastice  
    • GETLIFE
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 9:27am

      “WASHINGTON (AP) β€” It’s not just the economy, stupid. It’s the demographics – the changing face of America.”

      It’s not the economy OR the demographics, stupid. It’s the media.

      Report this comment

      GETLIFE  
    • mastice
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 9:49am

      The statement of trusting the government to take care of you is pure ignorance to history and I believe those few words sum up most of the problems in our country.

      I will agree with you to the extent that the media has a hand in shaping public opinion on this.

      Report this comment

      mastice  
    • GETLIFE
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 10:35am

      Just to be clear– the “stupid” part was not to you, but to anyone who really believes Romney lost because of demographics. Heck, he didn’t even need a media “on his side,” he just needed a very tiny bit of honest news reporting– and honest media attention to the stink of fraud in the swing states.

      Report this comment

      GETLIFE  
    • The_Jerk
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 10:45am

      Blacks: Historically a “I can not do for myself” – “Do for me culture;” be it fundamentals of existence, or the need for Affirmative Action. Third World.

      Hispanics: Not much different.

      Women: Despite their claims of “Hear me roar” and “I am woman I am strong,” they are provably the weaker sex as exemplified by Sandra Fluke. Proof rests in their voting record. They voter for the ‘Do for me” candidate, overwhelmingly. Sadly, they are their children’s worst enemy.

      We have, or are hitting, the critical mass of Third World-ism.

      Report this comment

      The_Jerk  
    • DaisyGirl
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 10:46am

      Hello 20% of our economy hijacked by the government. The USA is now a socialist country. I say help it financially fail so the leeches and socialists run out of money. I no longer give a crap. Will only help when there is a chance to rebuild a country built on capitalism and personal responsibility. End of story.

      Report this comment

      DaisyGirl  
    • Independent4233
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 11:26am

      β€œThe minorities will vote,” said demographer Frey. β€œThe question is will their vote be split more across the two parties than it was this time?”

      Who cares?

      This country is rapidly imploding economically, so don’t tell us how things will be 40 years from now. It’s a moot point.

      Right after the election 20 states voted to secede. http://newsone.com/2080269/states-secede-obama-reelection/

      As the economy goes into another recessioon beginning next year and into an eventual severe depression, secession demands will reach fever pitch as everybody tries to jump a sinking ship……..long before it submerges completely.

      Civil war and secessionist demands will cause a break up into independent sovereign enclaves, split along politics, race and ethnicity.

      If anybody doubts that, just wait awhile and watrch it unfold into greater detail for yourself. A stark example is worth a million words.

      Report this comment

      Independent4233  
    • mastice
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 11:51am

      @GETLIFE

      No worries – I didn’t react with the thought that you referred to me as ‘stupid’. I just wanted to clarify and post that I agree with you that the media has a heavy hand in shaping people’s opinion of government. (for good or bad)

      Report this comment

      mastice  
    • mastice
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 12:00pm

      @The_Jerk

      I think you make some good points – but I am going to have to disagree with putting people into generalized groups. (that’s demographics)

      I know some black, hispanic, and women voters who are conservative minded and vote based on that belief. (granted – I do know more who vote for entitlements and feel good policies but the point remains – not everyone can be characterized into broad groups)

      The underlying and biggest problem in this country that I feel we face today is perfectly summed up in the original statement that I posted. Dependency on the government to ‘save’ you from yourself is a rot that has been eating away at this nation for a very long time. (and yes – I believe we are reaching, or have reached, critical mass on this)

      But not all vote along their ‘demographic’ lines.

      Report this comment

      mastice  
    • stage9
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 3:58pm

      β€œI trust the government to take care of us,” she said. β€œI don’t trust the Republican Party to take care of people.”

      If she’s so confident government can take care of her, then why in the heck is she living in AMERICA and NOT Mexico??? Her government can’t take care of her?

      Let me break down the new demographic for you: The country is full of MORONS!

      Report this comment

      stage9  
  • THX-1138
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 9:10am

    “I trust the government to take care of us.”

    Translation: “I have never read a history book.”

    Report this comment

    THX-1138  
  • hauschild
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 9:01am

    Third World America is here to stay.

    Report this comment

    hauschild  
  • Dismayed Veteran
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:55am

    The issue is not that the demographics have changed. The issue is how do we keep this country center right. We can’t agrue about the data, we need to figure out how to use the data to the nation’s best advantage.

    Report this comment

    Dismayed Veteran  
  • GETLIFE
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:48am

    Race”ism” is now the manipulation of minority interest groups in order to win elections.
    It is the progressives and the media who engage in race”ism”–
    and the minorities are consciously mislead by the media to imagine that
    they will somehow come out ahead with the socialists.

    They are setting a trap which we must not fall into.

    Progressive = RACE”ism”
    Conservative = HUMAN “ism”

    Report this comment

    GETLIFE  
  • sondoggie
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:31am

    The Hispanics rioted and told us that they will take over. We are nearly there, welcome to Amexica!

    Report this comment

    sondoggie  
  • DennisNJ
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:29am

    What happens when jobs, economy, & stock market continue to go down,while, welfare, medical expenses, spending continue to go up?

    Report this comment

    DennisNJ  
  • Susie
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:28am

    Hello ?
    What makes you think there will be a next election ???????

    Report this comment

    Susie  
  • legendarytwo
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:26am

    Republicans winning doesn’t help, we need to get rid of them with a TEA party. The republicans gave us all the big social programs and the TSA and the EPA, etc. It is not the democrats that are the problem. We know they are evil. It is the republicans doing the same thing when they get elected. Look at all the Supreme Court justices put in by Republicans including the chief John Roberts implant that had no conservative record. He was a chameleon waiting for the right time to stab us in the back. We need to organize to oppose republicans. Look what Boehner is doing now.

    Report this comment

    legendarytwo  
  • Susie
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:25am

    Welcome to Godless multiculturalism, America.
    What was the last Christian country on earth just voted God out.
    Welcome to Canada.
    Depressed doesn’t begin to describe how I feel.

    Report this comment

    Susie  
  • TheGreatMan
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:15am

    Stop ******* & moaning people. Hey I’ve been a life long Republican and I voted for Mitt. He lost now lets move on, okay? And yeah demographics are changing and that’s just the way it is. We’ll learn from this loss and we will make the necessary adjustments.
    Nothing to get excitied about.

    Report this comment

    TheGreatMan  
    • landowner
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:36am

      I agree that we need to get a bigger tent. Not by changing our message (though enough with the social issues really), but rather by including those who by their nature think like us. Hispanics by and large are hard working, family and religious people who repect fiscal lines and would vote with us if we welcomed them instead of letting the Dems define who we are.

      Report this comment

      landowner  
    • pdw
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:54am

      Demographics are not what is changing, morals are what are changing. History shows what happens when a country becomes to immoral they fall. It is time America finds their morals again or we can look forward to another war to cleanse our country.

      Report this comment

      pdw  
  • GuruMeditation
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:10am

    Going to work for yet another day so I can help feed the bums. I’m not sure how much longer it’ll last though.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/therootdc/post/food-stamps-once-associated-with-the-poor-now-commonly-used-among-college-students/2012/11/05/36971aee-275f-11e2-b4f2-8320a9f00869_blog.html

    Report this comment

    GuruMeditation  
  • GuruMeditation
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:06am

    The US is dead.

    Report this comment

    GuruMeditation  
  • American2012
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:04am

    To hell ……. Jeb Bush’s wife is hispanic, then GOP voter turnout will be high in 2016, also in addition Iran will be closer to nuclear, Bush family has the handling of war too…….. hell with people!!

    Report this comment

    American2012  
  • Polarized America
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:59am

    By 2016 i wonder if fox news will be more colorful.
    Rush might have a spanish side kick
    The right will all of a sudden become pro-choice
    & have beer company’s add condoms inside a six pack, like a *******-jack toy

    i really don’t know what else to say

    Report this comment

    Polarized America  
  • Katielee
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:58am

    So what these immigrants are saying, is they didn’t come to America for freedom and opportunity, to escape government oppression, they are simply looking for a more benevolent government to take care of them.
    Nice.

    Report this comment

    Katielee  
  • Cymry
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:49am

    in cleveland there were 100+ precincts that voted for obama by 99%. in the precincts that the republican poll monitors were kicked out of barry got 100% of the vote.

    nothing will be done because the republican establishment wants to avoid social upheaval. just like barry’s inconvenient truth concerning his citizenship. this appeasement will continue until barry invades Poland……….i mean barry attempts a communist coup of america and then social upheaval will be unavoidable.

    Report this comment

    Cymry  
    • Cymry
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:01am

      this america is NOT the same america that survived the great depression. we have, for the most part, become a vulgar nation. when something akin to the great depression (or worse) presents itself, the self-restraint, good citizenship, and godly social norms present in the 1930′s will not be operative. the communists/globalists whomever…….never really solved the problem of an armed citizenry/usa military so this could get very dicey. i just pray that other countries don’t try to exploit this period of weakness in america because ww3 comes to the fore as a real possibility.

      actually, the bible does mention that a great part of humanity will perish in fire.

      Report this comment

      Cymry  
    • Eastinfection
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:02am

      CYMRY…

      I wish you would provide some proof for that claim. I voted for Romney and i don’t doubt that there was significant voter fraud… but many of the examples of β€œproof” given by various conspirators are BS…. many of the percentages are β€œ200 base” not β€œ100 base”. Kind of like baseball batting averages are β€œ1000 base”… Baseball players batting 300 don’t get three hits per at bat…
      Look for the real fraud.. like the ones where election officials were removed or machines performed inadequately… All these %-based fraud claims are just making conservatives look desperate and ill-informed… I’m not saying that’s the case with the numbers you cite but, i’d sure like to see some proof.

      Report this comment

      Eastinfection  
  • Eastinfection
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:42am

    This is scary… not because whites will one day be a minority but, because people who think the government is designed to “take care” of us are becoming the majority..

    I really wonder how the Constitution, itself would fare in a Nation-wide yea or nay vote?
    I used to think people would automatically be Constitutionalists if they actually understood it….. now i have my doubts…..

    In a way it makes me wonder if the “Civil War 2: Electric Bugaloo” clowns have their ear to the rails a little more than even THEY realize….? God i hope not…

    Report this comment

    Eastinfection  
    • justangry
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:56am

      Hell, not even the ‘conservatives’ are interested in returning to the Constitution.

      Report this comment

      justangry  
    • Katielee
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:02am

      If nothing else, thos election has been an eye opener. I have to say my optimism in the American-ness American’s is compromised.

      They reap what they sow….I just wish the rest of us didn’t have to go down with them.

      Report this comment

      Katielee  
  • Ody400K
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:35am

    There once was a country that for 80 years was voting socialist in to power. There was never any way for the conservative party to ever win. So they got together and said let’s move left. So they embraced all the socialist view. They finally got elected and the socialist party needed to change so they used the green party to move even further left. People liked it, so the now not so conservative party had to move even further left. It ended up that they were bickering over let’s raise taxes 3% the socialists said and the conservative said no lets raise it by 2.8% that was the big election deal in 2010.
    I am afraid that this is what will happen here, the only thing that could prevent it is that we are allowed to keep arms, but that might change also.

    Report this comment

    Ody400K  
  • Lonescrapper
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:34am

    β€œI trust the government to take care of us,” she said. β€œI don’t trust the Republican Party to take care of people.”

    And there is your problem. Not understanding that the Republican Party IS part of the government, no matter how small.

    Report this comment

    Lonescrapper  
    • GETLIFE
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:09am

      As long as the media refuses to educate people about the non-racist truth about conservative values….
      It’s the MEDIA who decided this election.

      Report this comment

      GETLIFE  
  • ares338
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:32am

    Geez….Only a lawyer would say she trusts the government to take care of people. She passed the bar in Juarez.

    Report this comment

    ares338  
  • Cymry
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:30am

    doesn’t matter, Jesus is coming back soon, very soon. all this race bait will not even be a memory.

    Report this comment

    Cymry  
    • Eastinfection
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:56am

      Even if that were so… what makes you think he’d be coming here?…
      It took an awful long time for Jesus’s influence to permeate Western culture the first time around…. it’s not like he’s going to set up a website, buy a TV station on cable, and start touring concert halls around the world. Nor is he going to *poof* make all the unrighteous disappear…. Not his style…

      I doubt Christ, himself, would endorse anyone sitting around, waiting to be saved… waiting to be “taken care of”… If that were his intention he’d be no different than big government.

      Report this comment

      Eastinfection  
  • media-bias-steals-elections
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:30am

    Mitt Romney did not loose the election in my opinion, it is wishful thinking to suggest that Americans really believe that the government is going to take care of them? You might get a free phone, the cheapest brand ever made, meanwhile government employees and contractors are running around with the latest gadgets?

    How many of you suffered in poverty trying to maintain transportation, because the price of new vehicles were too high because of regulations? How many house foundations could be poured with the wasted concrete we throw away on construction projects?

    How many decades are we going to ignore calls for a government branch that tells us the financial impacts of regulations on a real time, verifiable basis? You want to tax the rich, limit their spending power, and call that social justice, at the same time, the richest guy in the room, Uncle Sam, does not get his spending cut, why not? I thought that was good for the citizens?

    These people run around in limos all day, meanwhile we struggle to pay the rent, we struggle to keep our vehicles running, we struggle and go to jobs we may not like, but somebody has to do the work and its a decent pay, and vote and hope things are going to change? Why? Are the regulations going down to bring down the costs of housing, transportation, or medical costs? Did the medical industry get a big boom from the influx of cash from mandatory car insurance? Social Justice or hope?

    Report this comment

    media-bias-steals-elections  
  • SamIamTwo
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:24am

    Jimmy Carter started the ZERO growth rate for whites in the day. They took it seriously while the minorities propagated. Much like how the Muslims take over nations they migrate/immigrate too.

    They told ya this in the Sociology class titled “Population Explosion” in the 60′s. It’s not like this should be a revelation. And with great emphasis on minority hiring, come on now it was a gimme big time.

    Report this comment

    SamIamTwo  
  • hslusher
    Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:16am

    Yeah how do republicans out Democrat the Democrats? In a nation of children, Santa Claus is unbeatable.

    Report this comment

    hslusher  
    • loriann12
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 7:20am

      My Grandma used to say, “My name is Jimmy, I’ll take all you can gimme.”

      Report this comment

      loriann12  
    • Eastinfection
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:08am

      Grandmothers are full of wisdom… Mine used to say “Mankind should sew it’s Willy to it’s forehead so all it’s problems would be in one place.”

      Report this comment

      Eastinfection  
    • Pantloadian
      Posted on November 12, 2012 at 11:28am

      Mine used to say “Don’t give money to the preacher, he never gives anything back.”

      Report this comment

      Pantloadian  
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