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Is This the End of Boehner’s Speakership?

Jan. 3, 2013 8:40am
Is John Boehner Tenure as Speaker About to End? We Analyze the Evidence

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 01: Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) (C) walks through Statuary Hall before entering the House Chamber to oversee a vote on ‘fiscal cliff’ legislation during a rare New Year’s Day session January 1, 2013 in Washington, DC. Credit: Getty Images

Following the debacle that was the failure of Plan B in the Republican-controlled House, to say nothing of the fact that the majority of votes for the fiscal cliff deal came from Democrats, House Speaker John Boehner has come in for some rather harsh criticism. Some have even openly spoken about mounting a leadership challenge against Boehner, and with the vote today that could do just that, such challenges are quite arguably a cause for concern for Boehner himself.

But will they go anywhere? Here, the question becomes more fuzzy. Without a major candidate willing to challenge Boehner and openly campaign for the post, it may well be that the Speaker could hang on, especially considering that a Republican caucus that is divided among several no hopers as an alternative to Boehner could very easily lead to Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. In fact, all it takes is 34 votes for someone other than Boehner by Republicans for Pelosi to reclaim the gavel. Needless to say, this is an outcome that no Republicans want.

There is, of course, one immediate default candidate to replace Boehner, that being House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Cantor, who very publicly broke with Boehner on yesterday’s fiscal cliff deal, and has been known to argue more aggressively for a conservative approach than Boehner in White House negotiations, could probably oust Boehner in a straight leadership election with as little as 80% of the Republican votes against the fiscal cliff deal behind him. Indeed, according to the Guardian, Cantor is the only credible alternative to Boehner:

Enter Eric Cantor. In closed-door meetings of the House Republican conference, he expressed his opposition to the Senate bill before Boehner had taken a stand. He expressed the sense of most Republicans that it raised taxes without getting any meaningful spending cuts in return, that it added to the deficit, and that it created the precedent that any cuts must be paired with tax hikes.[...]

Cantor had tried to establish himself as the right flank of the debt ceiling negotiations in the summer of 2011, famously irritating the president. But many conservatives regarded this as ambition talking more than principle. When the majority leader said out loud what most Republicans were thinking about the fiscal cliff bill, however, there was admiration.[...]

Could Cantor make a move? The conditions are there, but an exhausted Republican caucus may ultimately flinch from a change at such an uncertain time. And if Cantor doesn’t run, it’s hard to see anyone else mustering the votes to oust Boehner.

There’s just one problem with the “Cantor coup” hypothesis, though — Cantor has denied that he’ll do it. From his spokesman’s Twitter yesterday:

See Charles Krauthammer discuss the possibility of a challenge to Boehner on Fox News:

 

It is easy to see why Cantor might decline to challenge Boehner at this point, and that would be because in a straight fight, Boehner could probably command the votes of at least 92 Republicans. That’s not enough to win the speakership, or the leadership of his own party, but even if a challenger won every single other Republican, it would be more than enough to deny that challenger the speakership in favor of Pelosi. As such, a hostile takeover from Boehner is even more unlikely to happen, on the basis of simple math.

Not that this might stop some people. Matthew Boyle reports:

American Majority Action spokesman Ron Meyer told Breitbart News late Tuesday that enough House Republicans have banded together in an effort to unseat House Speaker John Boehner from his position–they just need a leader to take up the mantle.

“At least 20 House Republican members have gotten together, discussed this and want to unseat Speaker Boehner–and are willing to do what it takes to do it,” Meyer said. “That’s more than enough to get the job done, but the one problem these guys face is they need a leader to coalesce behind.”[...]

AMA is hardly the only conservative entity aware of the rekindled effort afoot to unseat Boehner. Another conservative with inside knowledge of the effort told Breitbart News that the movement has “new focus and juice,” and if enough members go to Boehner telling him they won’t support his re-election, that Americans should “watch for him to resign gracefully.”

Now, while “at least 20 members” is scarcely enough to cause GOP panic (remember, it takes more than 30 to put Boehner in danger of losing the speakership), the idea of Boehner resigning voluntarily if enough Republicans refuse to support him is not impossible. Yet while such an outcome is possible, whether it’s likely is another question. As Alana Goodman at Commentary observes:

[American Majority Action] has been one of Boehner’s most vocal critics, so it’s not clear how much of this is just wishful thinking and how much reflects an actual burgeoning revolt. For one, Cantor’s office has downplayed his rift with Boehner, saying he stands behind the current speaker. And many members might be concerned about shaking up House GOP leadership right before the debt ceiling debate.

Then there’s the question of how much of this the Boehner opposition brought on itself. After all, the speaker’s Plan B deal that was killed by his internal critics was better in comparison to what ended up going through yesterday. Conservatives have legitimate complaints about the final deal, and legitimate grievances about the closed-door process of negotiations. But Boehner had to play the hand he was dealt, and unfortunately for Republicans it’s been stacked against them since the November election.

And then there is the simple fact that, if Boehner is going to go and Cantor is going to stand for his job, both men are running out of time. The vote is only hours away, and that is quite arguably not enough time for an orderly transition of power to occur.

Ultimately, while widespread discontent with Boehner is obviously a factor, and it is unclear whether he will be able to hold onto his leadership position in the long run, in the short run the number of factors arguing against a Congressional coup outweigh the factors arguing for it. Unpopular party leaders have faced much hyped prospects of defeat before (most recently in the case of Nancy Pelosi in 2010), and emerged unscathed. Boehner has weaknesses as a leader, and is certainly vulnerable over the long haul as an able representative of the GOP caucus, but for now, the safe assumption should be that he’ll hang on to his job.

Cast Your Vote on John Boehner’s Future

UPDATE: Eddie Scarry over at the blog sends over this RedState piece that shows that a plurality of votes would not be enough to win the speakership. Thus, rather than Pelosi assuming the job, votes would be repeated as horse trading occurs between different candidates. While this makes a Pelosi speakership with a Republican majority less likely, it doesn’t make it impossible, since disgruntled Republicans could simply vote ‘Present,’ but that is unlikely. The more likely outcome in this situation is a messy set of repeated iterations of the vote for Speaker, which leaves the House leaderless.

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Comments (103)

1 2 3
  • Timmy_NorthWest
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:33am

    Snow, please elaborate. I’m familiar with Wilt, but not this Chamberlain. Seems like I should be aware of it though.

    Report this comment

    Timmy_NorthWest  
  • TIMEBOMB
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:30am

    John boy’s been a great help to me and my beard as we take America on her journey to communism.
    John’s so emotional unlike me,I can’t even force myself to cry,did you see my presser after the massacre at Newtown? I tried and I tried with all my might to generate a tear,I finally did it after thinking about being in bed with my beard,that turned on the water works whew. John’s just way over his head in dealing with me because I’m a community agitator at heart and I know how to stir the pot and John just can’t deal with me,he’s always talking about cutting spending blah blah blah,John just doesn’t get it the American people are stupid,they voted for me twice!!!! Praise be to me BHO.

    Report this comment

    TIMEBOMB  
    • Hopefulone
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:41am

      TIMEBOMB, the problem is not that Boehner is outwitted by you (…err, his majesty BHO) but that he is secretly a maxist like you.

      Report this comment

      Hopefulone  
  • Timmy_NorthWest
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:29am

    @RJJ, yes I think you are (sadly) correct in your analysis.

    Report this comment

    Timmy_NorthWest  
  • Apple Bite
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:26am

    They ousted West with the possibility of this happening. Having a blackman stand up to the President was a huge fear for the Libs, Obama’s image and the Lib message would have been destroyed.

    I think they should bring him back and let him run the show. He was the only one with the will to say the things nobody wanted to hear. And there’s more than plenty the country and these Libs need to hear.

    Report this comment

    Apple Bite  
    • NHwinter
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:38am

      Good suggestion, but at this point I don’t think anything will work. Obama has his agenda and is moving forward with it quickly. The demise of America is all but done in the next year or two. His transformation will bankrupt America, our military will be transformed also, we will be vulnerable to attacks, guns will be taken, food will be scarse – you get the picture. He will rejoice in bringing us to our knees. He made it clear from the beginning what his plan was and so many uninformed Americans bought his hope and change. How sad to see the greatest country go down at the hands of one man and his Marxists friends. He could have done so much good, but chose the most destructive path that any American president has ever even imagined. God bless our Founders, they tried to warn us.

      Report this comment

      NHwinter  
    • Hopefulone
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:46am

      Apple Bite, I love it! It would be wonderful having West come back as Speaker. I only recently learned that you didn’t have to be an elected member to serve as Speaker. I don’t know that he has the experience for it but I bet he could dig in and make it work. …certainly better than the treacherous debt-addicts up there now. (A friend suggested we bring Newt Gingrich back. He wouldn’t have the appeal to racists who think badly of white people for their skin but he knows a thing or two about the game. …but then the racists/baiters “of color” don’t like West either.)

      Report this comment

      Hopefulone  
    • fraumj
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 10:46am

      I didn’t know that an unelected member can be Speaker of the House. Yes, bring in West! He would certainly tell the entire nation what’s really up. He has credibility that not a lot of the elected members have.

      Report this comment

      fraumj  
  • Canada_Goose
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:20am

    Mr. Cantor is a gutless little weasel, a real embarrassment to my tribe, much more so than Joe Lieberman ever was. He is in a perfect position as majority leader; he can play footsie with the radicals of the tea party wing of the party and pretend that he’s is standing against Mr. Boehner and establishment Republicans.

    But when it comes to raising money from wealthy Wall Street donors in New York and New Jersey Mr. Cantor will say anything, “We’ll definitely be voting on Sandy relief after the fiscal cliff vote.” He told Mr. Christie.

    What a weasel.

    Report this comment

    Canada_Goose  
    • barber2
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:25am

      The “Divide the Dumb Conservatives” agenda continues. Part of the Obama II agenda.

      Report this comment

      barber2  
    • Bum thrower
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:26am

      Hey; Boener almost won the negoations with himself.

      Report this comment

      Bum thrower  
    • soybomb315_II
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:30am

      Cantor is not much different than Boehner. Cantor got strong opposition from Tea Party in his own district last election

      Report this comment

      soybomb315_II  
    • techengineer11
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:39am

      This may be about the best written political commentary I’ve ever read. Of course I agree with it 100% and it has simply been deep in my spirit for years. I would only go one step further and explore exactly who this Oligarchy is because I’m not afraid of the truth but I understand that many just don’t have the stomach or the courage to call it what it is….

      I will be sending this out to my email list and encouraging all to read.. Please be prepared to perhaps have a cup of coffee and sit a few minutes because it’s pretty exhaustive.. Then share with family and friends. Finally, I knew there had to be a reason that I enjoyed listening to Pink Floyd so much back in the day.. lol

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-02/guest-post-mother-should-i-trust-government

      Report this comment

      techengineer11  
    • naughtycal
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:50am

      Boehner voted for the unread unvetted fiscal cliff deal….he needs to along with every politician that voted for an unread bill……Those cockgobblers take more time reading home loans than they the did spending 76 billion in subsitys that that deal just saddled on American tax payers.
      It time to close down D.C. and demand they return the 16.5 trillion they barrowed or we’ll sieze every solitary asset they own.

      Report this comment

      naughtycal  
  • kadster01
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:20am

    What difference does it make anyway? I don’t trust the Reps any more than the Dems anymore. I think they’re part of the same two-headed monster with a split personality. One persona is thug and a criminal, and the other is a spineless wimp that always submits. It’s time for a REAL 2nd party.

    Report this comment

    kadster01  
  • marybethelizabeth
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:18am

    How many other theblaze readers were hoping that Mr. Holt was failing at a new job somewhere else instead of wasting web space here?

    Report this comment

    marybethelizabeth  
  • Darla_K
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:18am

    I can remember when Boehner became speaker, I was excited to think that we had someone who would stand with the people and get the job done without taking crap from the libs. I am so disappointed with him now. He reminds me of one of the “good ole’ boys”. We are in trouble if this is the kind of leadership we can expect. There is not much at the end of the tunnel for us.

    Report this comment

    Darla_K  
    • Cavallo
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:33am

      The crying blubbering thank you he gave when he won didn’t tip things off that he might be a a spineless push over or at least lack the stones and competence to negotiate effectively? We all wanted to give him the benefit of a doubt that he would fight for liberty and fiscal sense, but deep down you had to have that sick feeling in your stomach that things were going to turn south. With the debt fight roll over just 6 months past the most landslide midterm turnover in history.. this sick limp wristed weasel makes me ill. If Cantor wasn’t also nearly as bad,,, I think we need another Newt, as sour a note that is to utter.

      Report this comment

      Cavallo  
  • KingCanon
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:14am

    I hate to admit it, however at first glance this guy (our employee)
    cast a solemn appearance of a sluggish non-industrious individual.

    Report this comment

    KingCanon  
  • FlagWavingPatriot
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:10am

    Is this the end of Boehner’s speakership?

    I sure hope so. What a huge disappointment.

    Report this comment

    FlagWavingPatriot  
  • deep6
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:10am

    Couldnt help myself. Ive been trying to cope with this whole bs Obama fiasco that has happened, twice. So, I started painting. This is the “Fiscal Cliff” http://www.ebay.com/itm/Fiscal-Cliff-/130829404535?pt=Art_Paintings&hash=item1e760a4977

    Report this comment

    deep6  
  • Taurnil
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:10am

    Getting this knucklehead out is a day late and a dollar short.

    Report this comment

    Taurnil  
    • Cavallo
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:35am

      Should have been ousted after the first debt ceiling fight they caved on.

      Report this comment

      Cavallo  
  • jungle J
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:10am

    politics is for the mentally ill.

    Report this comment

    jungle J  
  • barber2
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:08am

    Boehner is just more of the Obama Collateral Damage: any ” conservative ” who deals with the head Chicago radical gets destroyed. That is part of the ” culture” of the Chicago radicals and their Character Assassination Squad. The Chicago radicals are the Bernie Madoffs of politics. Only more corrupt and anti-American.

    Report this comment

    barber2  
    • RIGHTHOOK
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:22am

      As you suggested, it would not have mattered who was Speaker. BO and his tag team are like a pack of Hyena’s at every turn. The 2nd downgrade is around the corner for the country. That should be a huge wake-up call but it will not resonate. I suppose that will be Bush’s fault. The libs will never garner an ounce of pragmatism in terms of what is a healthy elixir for this country. Just penalize the achievers is all they are fanatically obsessed with.

      Report this comment

      RIGHTHOOK  
    • barber2
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:36am

      RIGHT: Agree. The Chicago radicals are masters at the art of character assassination and destruction. Just like their “Dividers” who post here. These guys are radicals . They have the ethics of radicals : any action is permissible in order to win. Everyone is expendable. American capitalism is their target.

      Report this comment

      barber2  
    • Hopefulone
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:38am

      Oh, Barber2, Boehner is a RINO but you haven’t been paying attention. He’s better at keeping his treachery under cover than the likes of Graham, McCain, Specter, Jeffords, Crist, but he is one of those secret marxists. You’ve been played, along with MANY others. I am surprised that you weren’t clued in when he sold us out on the debt limit last year. Fool you twice and shame on YOU. It is important to not let your feelings have you blasting all people with an R after their name, though there are plenty worth hatred for their evil. Fight for the GOOD so that they can be encouraged.

      Report this comment

      Hopefulone  
    • RIGHTHOOK
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:47am

      Barber – I am roughly 7 years from so called retirement and thought I prepared with prudent fiscal judgement. Not so sure now with this jacka$$ and his handlers in control. I have always been physically active and in very good condition (today) so I believe I was lucky to have always embraced that ethic as I expect to be working to earn a buck (or whatever it is called in the future) for as long as I live as the libs devise plan after plan to pick our pockets.

      Report this comment

      RIGHTHOOK  
    • barber2
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 10:19am

      HOPE: Boehner, like Christy, makes the mistake of thinking that he can work with the Chicago radicals. Not so. The Chicago radicals have an agenda , a mission to ruin the American capitalist system and usher in a new age of radical ” Leftism ” ( wink, wink ). The Chicago radicals are determined to accomplish that by dividing the country (over the issues of race, class and politics ), over-spending, controlling the media, and disarming the citizenry. Pretty ” transparent ” to any student of history. The Obama radicals are America’s punishment for becoming too secular , too shallow, and too materialistic. A very painful punishment.

      Report this comment

      barber2  
  • mrmikejohnson
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:04am

    Conservatives no longer have a voice in America. This includes the Republican Speaker. It will remain Boehner even though a lot of his party wants him out.

    Report this comment

    mrmikejohnson  
  • SpankDaMonkey
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:00am

    .
    I say vote for Nancy……

    She at least holds the party line…………

    I expect my body to hit me with Projectile Vomiting & Fire hose Diarrhea any minute now after that comment…..

    Report this comment

    SpankDaMonkey  
    • RJJinGadsden
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:06am

      SPANKY, I feel your frustration and understand it. Take a hefty swig of Pepto and hope for the best.

      Report this comment

      RJJinGadsden  
  • Timmy_NorthWest
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:59am

    I think that Cantor would be a good move. He is much more conservative than Boehner. And more likely to fight for us.

    Report this comment

    Timmy_NorthWest  
    • RJJinGadsden
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:05am

      I like that idea very much. But, I feel with this near useless House, everything will remain the same.

      Report this comment

      RJJinGadsden  
  • AlabamaTeaParty.org
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:58am

    Never to happen. Mr. B’s timid reactive style of consistently leading from behind killed the 2010 conservatives. My current theory is that Washington is even more broken than normal folks can wrap their heads around. Sex, drugs, and rock & roll. A drunken democrat orgy. Why nix the fun with a new leader?

    Report this comment

    AlabamaTeaParty.org  
  • woodyee
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:56am

    Yes! Get rid of this RINO, and let’s pray “We Don’t Get Fooled Again!” BTW – did I hear correctly, that Chris Christy is considering going the way of the Dems?

    Report this comment

    woodyee  
    • The_Jerk
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:02am

      Cantor is a progressive, Jewish, politician that was elevated way beyond his talents. Hand picked. Coincidence that the one and only Jewish Republican candidate shot to the top? Once again, what are the odds?

      Report this comment

      The_Jerk  
    • Darla_K
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:04am

      He sure seems like it doesn’t he?

      Report this comment

      Darla_K  
    • barber2
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:11am

      Jerk: You sure have a thing about ” Jews.” What gives ?

      Report this comment

      barber2  
    • The_Jerk
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 9:44am

      Barber2, some years back it became apparent to me that things had really changed in America; fundamentally. As I thought about it, and studied it, I noted that the changes occurred at the close of the 19th, and opening of the 20th, century.

      Socialism, once called communism, was infecting our culture. Where did the philosophy originate? Who was cultivating it? Who was promoting it? Who was carrying it? And, then I asked, “Are the answers to these questions consistent with the historical evidence in America?”

      Trends began to appear. Communism came from Moses Hess and Karl Marx, both Jewish. Jewish culture was an ethnically closed, no country of origin, international, commune living society; kibbutz in nature. Communism thrived, especially in their Eastern European communities.

      And, when you look at their migration patterns into America, you can see that they brought that culture to America. As their power and influence grew, so too did their philosophy of communism. Everything began to point to the increasing power and influence of the ethnic Jewish people.

      Look, many have noticed the same. Churchill wrote about it. The cries of victim-hood and antisemitism keep them out of any discussion, unfortunately for America’s sake.

      Report this comment

      The_Jerk  
    • truthnstuff
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 10:18am

      Jerk,. your antisemitism is partially correct. But, you cannot paint Jews with your broad brush. Sure, many, maybe even most, lean socialist but there are many who are not. Even the socialist leaning ones are good people. Just like all blacks are not like 0bama, all Jews are not like Marx.

      Report this comment

      truthnstuff  
    • barber2
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 10:32am

      TRUTH: Agree. Know that the Marxists/ Communists all came from culturally Jewish backgrounds, but think that Hitler went over-board in his reaction to the Communist philosophy and ended up creating an equally horrific governmental response . Think their basic atheism united the Communists and the Fascists in their evil. That very atheism is what the Chicago radicals and their Big Brother government designs share with both of these terrible forms of government. Ans what is proably the most dangerous part of the Chicago radical’s philosophy.

      Report this comment

      barber2  
    • The_Jerk
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 11:31am

      Truthnstuff: “Jerk,. your antisemitism is partially correct.”

      If it is partially correct, it is not antisemitism. That’s the typical, Pavlovian dog response to anything critical of Jews. And, not all Germans were Nazis and not all Nazis were German, but Nazism was promoted, cultivated, and spread by Germans. Same for communism and Jewish involvement.

      Report this comment

      The_Jerk  
  • KeystoneState
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:56am

    Ohh, what an epic battle this will be, watching the mice duke it out to control the crumbs! Sad.

    Report this comment

    KeystoneState  
  • soybomb315_II
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:52am

    Hopefully, ‘the ayes have it’

    Unfortunately Cantor is not a whole lot better – maybe there is a darkhorse out there

    Report this comment

    soybomb315_II  
  • Seagal45
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:52am

    Yeah we hope but pretty much are resigned to the fact that nothing ever changes.

    Report this comment

    Seagal45  
  • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:52am

    So once again we come down to the devils cauldron for choices.

    We have another two-years of cave-as-you-go with Boehner; or a chance of Pelosi rising to power once again and the unstoppable insanity she would thus unleash in union with Obama and Reid. So who can replace him that has an spine of iron and steel, and willing to make the hard choices?

    Consider too that Boehner has isolated the tea party and newer members of the House in his efforts to try and keep the speakership; but considering his resignation was expected yesterday, I doubt he will fail in maintaining his position.

    Report this comment

    Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
  • ree758
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:49am

    Maybe Boener just has a blod clot,they are going around.

    Report this comment

    ree758  
  • kickagrandma
    Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:44am

    Oh, we hope! Now, this is change we can go for…. maybe. *sigh*

    Report this comment

    kickagrandma  
    • Red Meat
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:49am

      Boehner’s capitulated on every conservative issue to date so, yes, his work is done. He should be tried for treason and then summarily executed for his actions against our country.

      Report this comment

      Red Meat  
    • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
      Posted on January 3, 2013 at 8:52am

      @Grandma:

      This is a case, sadly, where Boehner has become another Chamberlain at Munich.

      Report this comment

      Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
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