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Statisticians Claim There Are 11 Million Illegal Immigrants in the U.S. — But How Did They Get That Figure?

Feb. 13, 2013 8:02am

WASHINGTON (TheBlaze/AP) — There’s one number that keeps up popping up in the debate over illegal immigration: 11 million. That’s the ballpark estimate of how many people are living in the U.S. without legal permission.

But how would anybody know that? It’s not like people who are living in the U.S. illegally are jumping up and down to volunteer that kind of information. There’s a relatively complex process, with a plethora of indicators to consider if one wants to arrive at a viable number. So, naturally, the process requires the knowledge and experience of seasoned statisticians.

Number-crunchers dive deep into census data and other government surveys, make a bunch of educated assumptions and adjustments for people who may be left out, mix in some population information from Mexico and elsewhere and tend to arrive at similar figures.

This Is How the Researchers Estimate the Number of Illegal Immigrants in America

A local illegal immigrant fills out an application for the “deferred action” program at the Catholic Charities of Santa Clara County headquarters in San Jose, Calif. on Wednesday, Aug. 15, 2012. Amid warnings that it is not a permanent solution, the federal government launched an immigration relief initiative Wednesday for more than 1.5 million young illegal immigrants who could seek work permits and protection from deportation. Credit: AP 

The Homeland Security Department, for example, estimates there were 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in January 2011. The Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research organization, estimates there were 11.1 million living in the U.S. in March 2011. Other estimates are in the same neighborhood.

The demographers rely on what’s called the “residual” method to tease out the data.

That is, they take estimates of the legal foreign-born population and subtract that number from the total foreign-born population. The remainder – or residual – represents those who are living in the country without legal permission.

It’s a fairly simple concept, but there are lots of complex assumptions that go into the calculations: How much to adjust for an undercount of foreign-born residents in the census that’s done once every 10 years? How many foreign-born residents are migrating out of the U.S.? How many die in the U.S.? And so on.

This Is How the Researchers Estimate the Number of Illegal Immigrants in America

Photo Credit: AP

 

“All of these things tweak the numbers on the margins, but they don’t change the story very much,” says Randy Capps, a senior policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. “There’s a pretty good consensus, and I think the numbers are generally accepted on all sides of the debate.”

Pew demographer Jeffrey Passel, who’s been calculating illegal immigration estimates for decades, says the underlying method isn’t all that complicated, but there’s a lot of number-crunching to be done to reach a solid estimate.

“I wouldn’t argue that it’s good to the last hundred thousand, but I think most people think it’s within a half a million,” says Passel.

He tries to clearly lay out how he gets his numbers – to a point.

“My colleagues give me a hard time,” he says, “because when I write a report the methodology section is longer than the report.”

In CONTROL, Glenn Beck presents a passionate, fact-based case for guns that reveals why gun control isn’t really about controlling guns at all; it’s about controlling us. Find out more HERE.

Comments (42)

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  • rickinnyc
    Posted on February 14, 2013 at 1:56am

    HERE’S A PIECE OF HOW TO ORGANIZE AGAINST THE MILLIONS:.

    In NYC we have NYICE, an active anti-illegal alien group that takes action, does media interviews, and pickets and protests every time an illegal issue comes up in NY.

    Border states should esp. have activist groups; but all states.

    All can start taking action today, you can by joining http://www.numbersusa.com .; and be sending tons of free faxes w/in hours.

    Check this list too my friends, there are many states w/ active immigration groups they could use your support.

    SEE IF YOUR STATE HAS AN ANTI-ILLEGAL ACTIVIST GROUP:

    http://www.illegalaliens.us/stateorganizations.htm

    Report this comment

    rickinnyc  
  • BIGdave1
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:14pm

    In the early part of the decade (2000-2003), the estimated illegal alien population was ‘about 8 million’; then around 2005, it grew to ‘between 8-11 million;about 2007-8, it quietly became 11.5 million – and the needle hasn’t budged since then.

    I believe that the reason for the rise in these estimates was due to several independent studies that placed the numbers much higher than what was being officially reported – but wouldn’t agree to those numbers primarily for political reasons.

    Can you imagine the public outcry if, shorlty after 8/11, it was reported that there were 20-plus million illegal aliens in the country? The American people would’ve demanded immediate and visible action to remove them. By keeping the numbers low, but slowly adjusting them upwards, the government was ‘softening the blow’ – if action was ever demanded.

    Just consider what an amnesty would do to the population of this country. With a current legal population at over 320 million, if we grant amnesty to an added 20=plus million the actual net gain would be closer to 60-80 million. Why? Because of chain migration.

    If, on average, each amnestied illegal brings in 2-3 family members (spouse & children, maybe elderly parents), that would take the population total to over 400 million in just a years time.

    Let’s step back for a second and suppose that the government figure is even remotely accurate at 11.5 million. With the above-mentioned chain migration that will occur, it i

    Report this comment

    BIGdave1  
  • BIGdave1
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:00pm

    While I will admit that my stats are not ‘iron-clad’ – given that the illegal alien population lives ‘in the shadows’, who really knows for any great certainty. However, I try to use what numbers have been used and theorize from there. Okay here goes -

    Let’s start with 1986, the year of the Reagan amnesty. From then until 2011 (25 years), the federal government estimated that between 3-4 million people entered the country illegally, but that only 1 million were intercepted by the Border Patrol and immediately returned. So, that means that between 50-75 million people sucessfully entered the U.S. illegally. Every year, approx .5 million were caught and deported, so that reduces the total to between 37.5-62.5 million. Pro-illegal supporters claim that between .5-1 million illegals ‘self-deported’, which brings the total down to 25-50 million. Because my numbers are non-scientific, I’ll allow for a 10% error factor – but that only reduces the number to between 22.5-45 million. Given the range, the median estimate would be something around 34 million.

    As I began, my numbers are not concrete, but I challenge anyone else to provide firmer, accurate numbers that place the total anywhere near 11 million.

    I have another, even simpler, postulation that also supports a larger figure – follows in another comment.

    Report this comment

    BIGdave1  
  • RemoteCoderz
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 5:27pm

    That 11.5 million stat from the feds in 2011 is complete crap. I did enough research on the issue back in 2007 to know that at that time, the feds, and pro-illegal groups were citing 20 million. You mean to tell me that in 4 years time 8.5 million deported themselves? I find that hard to believe.

    Report this comment

    RemoteCoderz  
    • Kathleen3
      Posted on February 13, 2013 at 10:53pm

      In 2004 the former Bear Stearns issued a study in which they calculated over 20 million illegal aliens were in this country. They also concluded the monies unpaid to the IRS as a result of illegals being paid off the books would have, at that time, paid off the federal deficit.

      Report this comment

      Kathleen3  
    • RemoteCoderz
      Posted on February 15, 2013 at 9:59pm

      And I also recall how North Carolina published a study that stated their illegals were paying taxes in other ways boosting their bottom lines. (Sales taxes and the like). In the tune of hundreds of thousands to millions of gained revenue. Where are these crusaders now?

      Report this comment

      RemoteCoderz  
  • JMadison
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 4:12pm

    Hmm. This comes to mind. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUK6zjtUj00

    Report this comment

    JMadison  
  • R00STER
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 3:21pm

    Am I the only one thinking that they WANT this debate and this publicity to burn for as long as possible and as hot as possible. Illegals are just hearing HURRY UP AND COME AND THEY WILL LET YOU STAY! I bet the number of illegals coming in is about to EXPLODE.

    Report this comment

    R00STER  
  • RaydocX
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 3:18pm

    uhm, maybe from census data, since the census by Dem design went about counting only ‘people’ and not citizens. What better way for the Left to amplify their power by claiming to represent larger segments of the population than can actually vote… especially since their policies are keeping those people in poverty without ever having to be blamed for it… it’s a vicious cycle for the ‘underserved’ and the country at large, and it’s prepetuated by the silence of the MSM

    Report this comment

    RaydocX  
  • watashbuddyfriend
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 12:21pm

    Ok, it is just a SWAG!

    Report this comment

    watashbuddyfriend  
  • Watcher1952
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:56am

    The kids T-shirt says it……now he needs to get the hell out of America…..and take his parents, grand parents and all siblings with him…..

    Report this comment

    Watcher1952  
  • Tom70
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:44am

    They got it form the DNC in my opinion. This is the number they want you to believe. It is more like 20,000,000. Now that is a voting block they drool over and will make every effort to make sure they get as many free goodies as possible for their votes. This is not the final figure given 5 years that # will grow to 50K to 70K with them bringing in relatives for the goodies.
    Don’t believe those numbers? That is what happened with the last amnesty program they stuck us with.

    Report this comment

    Tom70  
  • BannedByHuffpo
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:40am

    Why stop at 11 million.

    Why not offer even better incentives so that 20 years from now there will be in excess of 200 million?

    Report this comment

    BannedByHuffpo  
  • RayOne
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:13am

    Offer them money to self deport. Get in line and do it right. The White House is delusional.

    Report this comment

    RayOne  
    • Caniac Steve
      Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:31am

      i say it’s closer to 15-16 million and then there all the children bone to those 15-16 million and the grand children born to millions of the older illegals here.the longer we wait the worse it gets..

      Report this comment

      Caniac Steve  
  • 1FreeVoice
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:02am

    What would happen if we announced that we were in negotiations with china Russia and N Korea and others to accept any illegal aliens that we catch within our borders after a certain date? Rework the applications/approval process for legal work permits, and allow legal workers. Make that process easier… but threaten to deport illegals to somewhere ELSE they may not speak the language… and can’t walk/drive back in a few days. Give them time to evacuate back to wherever they came from and apply to enter the country legally. Then start enforcing it. It would be expensive to deport all of them, but we wouldn’t have to once they saw we were serious.

    Report this comment

    1FreeVoice  
  • lillypup
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 10:26am

    I read a while back that the federal estimates for illegals that enter and stay were 3.5 million per year in the year 2000. 35 million have thus arrived and stayed between 2000 and 2010. I estimate there are between 40 and 60 million here now. The oligarchs have done their jobs well. They wanted us gone as a relevent power in the world, and they have succeeded.

    Report this comment

    lillypup  
    • RedDawn2012
      Posted on February 13, 2013 at 5:00pm

      They’ve been repeating that “11 million” number for the last 15 years. My guess is about 40 million now, and don’t forget to ADD all those babies they’ve whelped since arriving here. That could bring the total to 50 or 60 million.

      Report this comment

      RedDawn2012  
  • Saff SGT
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 9:40am

    Do we have enough ammo to kill all of them if they attack us through Odumbos orders

    Report this comment

    Saff SGT  
  • Saff SGT
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 9:38am

    Obama let them in to vote, all crooked votes plus he will enlist these Illegals to work at the DHS to shoot Americans because not many real Americans will sign on to shoot American gun owners, I know what they have planed Illegal Mexicans and others will be shooting you the real American by orders from a Communist Dictator in DC. We will win when the body bags pile up on the Communists side

    Report this comment

    Saff SGT  
  • PaulHausser
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 9:07am

    I remember back in 2009 the number was 25-30 million

    Report this comment

    PaulHausser  
  • Shamrock241
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:45am

    The sign says Education not deportation. Why are you protesting to our government? When i am pissed about the thing odumbo does i do not run kicking and screaming to the Mexican Gov, you people are pathetic.

    Report this comment

    Shamrock241  
    • RockyMountainPATRIOT
      Posted on February 14, 2013 at 5:03am

      Behold yet another product of the information age. It’s worse than you think. The sign actually reads, “EDUCATION NOT DEPOPORTATION.” Obviously, she’s already BEEN educated by our public schools. (Maybe *that’s* what she’s protesting)

      Report this comment

      RockyMountainPATRIOT  
  • term limits for congress
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:39am

    How do you count the illegals in Mexico? Go to the jail and count them.

    Report this comment

    term limits for congress  
  • Beckwith
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:29am

    The REAL numbers:

    http://immigrationcounters.com/

    Report this comment

    Beckwith  
    • Winedude
      Posted on February 13, 2013 at 11:41am

      I checked out the link. It was somewhat interesting but is using a lot of very old data. Border crossings in 2006 were significantly higher than the last couple of years.

      Report this comment

      Winedude  
    • katzkiner
      Posted on February 14, 2013 at 8:23pm

      Try numbers usa.com

      Report this comment

      katzkiner  
  • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:25am

    So the 11 million is just a ‘best guess’ by the government cronies? Why is this no surprise, the real count is probably two or three times above that.

    Report this comment

    Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
    • CatB
      Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:40am

      In 1986 I believe it was at least double what they “projected” … and of course without securing the border it will be even higher again like 1986 when we were assured that amnesty would NEVER be given again.

      Report this comment

      CatB  
    • OldVet
      Posted on February 13, 2013 at 12:51pm

      Not a best guess. Instead it is a Low Ball estimate. They want you to think the number will not have as much of a negative impact. If they give you the REAL numbers, you will realize that they could literally bankrupt or economy. When the good times are gone, they will simply slip back home and leave us with the mess.

      Report this comment

      OldVet  
  • taintso
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:23am

    What amazes me is that the figure remains at 11 million over the years with the constant flow over open borders and the INS catch and release program?

    Report this comment

    taintso  
  • lgccac
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:21am

    Any number the Dept of Homeland Security comes up with can more accurately be doubled or even tripled.

    Report this comment

    lgccac  
  • cdn1979
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:20am

    Thats a pretty scientific method. not at all what i expected. I just thought they drove to home depot parking lots every morning and counted. I think my way is more accurate.

    Report this comment

    cdn1979  
  • NDPINDNT
    Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:07am

    How many illegal Americans are there in the US illegal? All of them.

    Report this comment

    NDPINDNT  
    • SamIamTwo
      Posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:18am

      What you lost your citizenship? Don’t know how to get there without a dick and jane book? With such a deep reply like yours, let me say this about that.

      Report this comment

      SamIamTwo  
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