Last year, while almost every pundit in almost every major media outlet made some attempt at predicting the eventual election results, only one analyst forecasted them 100% correctly, down to the level of not missing a single state’s correct outcome – Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Nate Silver (Photo Credit: AP)

What arguably made Silver’s perfect forecast more impressive was the fact that he he managed it despite immense pressure from outside observers who claimed his estimates couldn’t possibly be accurate. Needless to say, those observers ended up with egg on their face. Now, flush with his success, Silver has turned to predicting other events, like the teams that would be competing in the Super Bowl, and the outcome thereof. His results there have been…more mixed.

Now, Silver has turned to another area where statistics modeling can produce interesting results — namely, the race for tonight’s Oscar awards ceremony. And his predictions may have some scratching their heads, and others frantically rushing to correct their Oscar bets, depending on whether you believe Silver is likely to see a repeat of last November, or of the Super Bowl. You can decide for yourself by reading his predictions below (and check out his reasoning here). Note that Silver only predicted the most high profile awards, so this only covers Best Picture, Best Director, and the four acting awards:

Best Picture: Argo

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Photo Credit: Warner Bros

Best Director: Steven Spielberg, for “Lincoln”

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Steven Spielberg (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, for “Lincoln”

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Daniel Day Lewis in “Lincoln” (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, for “Silver Linings Playbook”

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook” (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, for “Lincoln”

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Tommy Lee Jones in “Lincoln” (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, for “Les Miserables”

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables” (Photo Credit: AP)

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