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2012 Election’s Most Accurate Predictor Weighs In On Oscars — Find Out Who He Thinks Will Win Here

Feb. 24, 2013 5:25pm Mytheos Holt

Last year, while almost every pundit in almost every major media outlet made some attempt at predicting the eventual election results, only one analyst forecasted them 100% correctly, down to the level of not missing a single state’s correct outcome – Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.

Nate Silver Predicts Oscar Race: Argo, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway

Nate Silver (Photo Credit: AP)

What arguably made Silver’s perfect forecast more impressive was the fact that he he managed it despite immense pressure from outside observers who claimed his estimates couldn’t possibly be accurate. Needless to say, those observers ended up with egg on their face. Now, flush with his success, Silver has turned to predicting other events, like the teams that would be competing in the Super Bowl, and the outcome thereof. His results there have been…more mixed.

Now, Silver has turned to another area where statistics modeling can produce interesting results — namely, the race for tonight’s Oscar awards ceremony. And his predictions may have some scratching their heads, and others frantically rushing to correct their Oscar bets, depending on whether you believe Silver is likely to see a repeat of last November, or of the Super Bowl. You can decide for yourself by reading his predictions below (and check out his reasoning here). Note that Silver only predicted the most high profile awards, so this only covers Best Picture, Best Director, and the four acting awards:

Best Picture: Argo

Photo Credit: Warner Bros

Best Director: Steven Spielberg, for “Lincoln”

Steven Spielberg (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, for “Lincoln”

Daniel Day Lewis in “Lincoln” (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, for “Silver Linings Playbook”

Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook” (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, for “Lincoln”

Tommy Lee Jones in “Lincoln” (Photo Credit: AP)

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, for “Les Miserables”

Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables” (Photo Credit: AP)

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Comments (31)

midnightvelvet
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 11:59pm
Meh….

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Uechi
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 9:10pm
The economy is in the crapper. The country is run by a Marxist President and Congress and we are worried about the Oscars and all the lefties that support it? Unbelievable bs!

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chclttrffls
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:54pm
He also picked Seattle to win the Superbowl.

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- 1947
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 8:02pm
  Back in the “90′s” the awards were everything to watch, now it all about watching the “Communists, Socialist gaving the “Obama AWARDS” for the money they supported him with……..
  
  Report this comment
mmcdonald628
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:35pm
Nate Silver is not the best…that honor goes to Dick Morris, because whatever he predicts, it’s an absolute guarnetee the opposite will come true.

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mash4077
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:31pm
one good thing about the coming economic collapse, we won’t have to put up with these self important A-holes.and they will be fair game for target practice.

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- cgnick
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:44pm
  MASH4077
  Only a piece of poop would advocate shooting fellow Americans because you don’t agree with their point of view. You obviously have no use for the first amendment.
  
  Report this comment
- marine249
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 9:28pm
  @CGNICK
  
  Maybe he does, and maybe the 2nd?
  
  Report this comment
doomytram
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:16pm
Wouldn’t watch any of the nauseating 8 hours of LSM coverage for a swag bag. I still remember when Obama contributed to the death of our Seals when he sang like a canary to get his movie out.

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- Bluebonnet
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:29pm
  Dam! I’ve become my mother. I used to laugh at her when she never knew any of the actor/actresses and singers etc, etc.
  I remember some of the the people I used to love years ago, but couldn’t tell you the name of any of the people in the last 15-20 years because I swore I would never support them, ever, because of WHAT they are more than who they are.
  Some of the real old skanks I can name, Cher, Babs Streisand…………know there are more but can’t remember the names off hand because of my disgust with ALL of ‘em.
  Believe me, I won’t be watching those fools with their heads up their butts, thinking they’re sumpin’
  
  Report this comment
BlesstheJews
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:11pm
Here are my predictions: Best Picture-A movie full of liberals I will never see. Best Actors, Actresses and Director will be won by a Hollywood liberal who lives in a mansion with an 8 car garage full of Mercedes Benz and Rolls Royes, but still blasts capitolism. They will ride around in limos and private jets, but still buy into the global warming myth, and they are surrounded by armed security guards, but still support Obamas gun control measures. I’m on pins and needles….

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- Evolved
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 8:36pm
  Wow, just…wow. Off your meds?
  
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readyontheright
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:03pm
My prediction…..I will Not care who wins,who performs or who presents, as I will have better things to do. Gotta make some popcorn and watch this paint dry !!

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antitheism
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 6:45pm
Looks like those so called “unskewed” polls were the most skewed of them all. LOL.

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DEFCON4
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 6:18pm
The Red carpet of ‘Escapism’, …. “literally and figuratively”.

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spfoam1
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 6:16pm
Who cares? Hollywood giving awards to actors, is like Congress giving pay raises to politicians. They all worship themselves.

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revelation2012
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 6:08pm
‘vanity, vanity all is vanity’

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- cgnick
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 7:46pm
  Yeah I could care less about a bunch of overpaid actors and their groupies swooning over each over.
  
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- Evolved
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 8:37pm
  Couldn’t care less, imbecile. So, you care a little.
  
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RJJinGadsden
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:53pm
I’ve heard only twice today, two brief mentions of the the Las Vegas car shooting now has a know suspect, and that his black Range Rover has been recovered. But, they keep giving us stories like this. C’mon guys, you can do better.

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AngryK9
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:53pm
And this means what to me?

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Xylliab_of_the_Znarghh
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:52pm
Those are the same predictions I made in the contest my local newspaper runs, except for Supporting Actress. You have to be crazier than Mary Todd Lincoln to bet against Sally Field this year.

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- Kupo
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 6:03pm
  Wrong. Anne Hathaway deserves it.
  
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- Xylliab_of_the_Znarghh
  Posted on February 25, 2013 at 12:43am
  Kupo
  Okay, you and he were right.
  
  Report this comment
GoodStuff
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:45pm
Silver? The guy that predicted the Seahawks win the Superbowl? Good grief. C’mon Blaze, stop giving this clown any attention.

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- Marine25
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 8:11pm
  The guy picks 50 states all within a point and a half, every Senate race but one, and nails the final house totals, but he misses the Super Bowl and he is a clown whose abilities should be ignored?
  
  No wonder Republicans lose so many elections.
  
  Report this comment
Marine25
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:36pm
What? Nobody asking Karl Rove or Dick Morris for their predictions?

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shortnsweet
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:34pm
I’m more interested in who’s the best and worst dressed.
The movies I’ll watch when they’re on TV

Don’t care about the speeches: the show is to long and boring.

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freenj
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:33pm
Frankly I don’t give a d*m!

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freenj
Posted on February 24, 2013 at 5:32pm
Frankly I don’t give a dam!

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- Bluebonnet
  Posted on February 24, 2013 at 8:01pm
  Frankly, MY DEAR, I don’t give a dam……..either.
  
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