Last year, while almost every pundit in almost every major media outlet made some attempt at predicting the eventual election results, only one analyst forecasted them 100% correctly, down to the level of not missing a single state’s correct outcome – Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.
What arguably made Silver’s perfect forecast more impressive was the fact that he he managed it despite immense pressure from outside observers who claimed his estimates couldn’t possibly be accurate. Needless to say, those observers ended up with egg on their face. Now, flush with his success, Silver has turned to predicting other events, like the teams that would be competing in the Super Bowl, and the outcome thereof. His results there have been…more mixed.
Now, Silver has turned to another area where statistics modeling can produce interesting results — namely, the race for tonight’s Oscar awards ceremony. And his predictions may have some scratching their heads, and others frantically rushing to correct their Oscar bets, depending on whether you believe Silver is likely to see a repeat of last November, or of the Super Bowl. You can decide for yourself by reading his predictions below (and check out his reasoning here). Note that Silver only predicted the most high profile awards, so this only covers Best Picture, Best Director, and the four acting awards:
Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, for “Lincoln”
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, for “Lincoln”
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, for “Silver Linings Playbook”
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, for “Lincoln”
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, for “Les Miserables”