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4 Important Facts to Consider About North Korea’s Threat to End an Already Fragile Cease-Fire

Mar. 6, 2013 8:47am Billy Hallowell

SEOUL, South Korea (TheBlaze/AP) — The armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953 is, at best, a fragile thing, as TheBlaze noted on Tuesday. The countries overseeing it have formally accused each other of more than 1.2 million violations.

But North Korea’s threat to scrap the cease-fire next Monday still matters because the armistice is the key document blocking hostilities on the Korean Peninsula, which technically has remained in a state of war for six decades.

If North Korea follows through on its threat to nullify the document that set up the heavily armed buffer zone between the rival Koreas, it could drive badly frayed relations even lower. The threat comes as diplomats at the U.N. negotiate sanctions aimed at punishing Pyongyang for its recent nuclear test and as allies Washington and Seoul plan massive war games set to start Monday.

Here’s a look at what the North’s threat could mean for the Korean Peninsula’s fragile peace:

ON THE GROUND

The armistice signed on July 27, 1953, set up an apparatus meant to govern a cease-fire ending the war. It can be seen most clearly at the Demilitarized Zone between North and South.

The armistice called for the creation of a military demarcation line and the DMZ around it – a 4-kilometer (2.5-mile) -wide “buffer zone,” with one side controlled by the American-led U.N. Command and the other side by North Korea.

The armistice prohibited “hostile acts” within or across the zone. As a hotline between the sides, it set up a military truce commission at the Panmunjom village that straddles the DMZ.

By scrapping the armistice, North Korea would be effectively refusing to recognize the DMZ, which is a violent place even with the rules of the armistice in place: Hundreds of troops serving under the U.N. command have died in the buffer zone over the years.

4 Important Facts to Consider About North Koreas Threat to End an Already Fragile Cease Fire

South Korean army soldiers patrol along a barbed-wire fence near a military post at the Imjingak Pavilion near the border village of Panmunjom, which has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War, in Paju, north of Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, March 6, 2013. North Korea’s military is vowing to cancel the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War, straining already frayed ties between Washington and Pyongyang as the United Nations moves to impose punishing sanctions over the North’s recent nuclear test. Credit: AP

“North Korea wants to show it can attack South Korea at any time,” said analyst Cheong Seong-jang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea. “The chance for limited war … has increased.”

The South Korean military says North Korea has violated the armistice by deploying machine guns inside the DMZ, triggering exchanges of gunfire along the border and digging infiltration tunnels.

North Korea has accused the U.S. and South Korea of deploying heavy weapons and combat personnel inside the DMZ, conducting war maneuvers targeting the North and firing at North Korean fishing boats near the western sea boundary.

North Korea said this week that its Korean People’s Army Supreme Command will stop all activities at the “Panmunjom mission of the KPA, which was tentatively established and operated by it as a negotiating body for establishing a peace-keeping mechanism on the Korean Peninsula.”

The North also vowed to cut off a phone line linking North Korea and the United States at Panmunjom.

FEAR IN SEOUL, TALKS IN WASHINGTON?

American and South Korean analysts see the threat as an attempt to win direct aid-for-disarmament talks with Washington by raising fears of war on the peninsula. North Korea wants such negotiations in part to secure much-needed aid and to force the removal of 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in the South.

“By disavowing the armistice, North Korea is sending a reminder about just how flimsy the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula is,” said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul. “In Pyongyang’s mind anyhow, this serves to reinforce their argument that formal peace talks and a new security architecture is a prerequisite to full denuclearization.”

But it also stirs fear among South Koreans.

People in Seoul are famously unimpressed with North Korean bluster, but the DMZ is only an hour’s drive from the bustling capital.

Visitors take their souvenir pictures in front of a barbed-wire fence at the Imjingak Pavilion near the border village of Panmunjom, which has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War, in Paju, north of Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, March 6, 2013. North Korea’s military is vowing to cancel the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War, straining already frayed ties between Washington and Pyongyang as the United Nations moves to impose punishing sanctions over the North’s recent nuclear test. Credit: AP

“The North Korean threat is a blade that cuts at both the United States and at South Koreans,” said Lee Ho-chul, a North Korea analyst at Incheon National University in South Korea. “For South Koreans, it’s a threat that North Korean forces will now ignore the military demarcation line. That can cause worries among ordinary South Koreans.”

Actually tearing up the cease-fire could remove an important psychological shield for South Koreans as they pursue building one of Asia’s premier economies.

“I’m worried North Korea may be trying to provoke a war,” restaurant worker Lee Hui-sook said in Seoul when asked about the threat. “I feel much more insecure than in the past about whether my country can handle North Korea.”

BLUFF OR PROMISE?

Since the 1990s, North Korea has frequently threatened to scrap the armistice. In 1996 it followed such a threat by sending hundreds of armed troops into Panmunjom. South Korea boosted its surveillance to its highest level in 15 years, and the troops later withdrew.

The context of the latest threat, however, is important.

This one follows five years of abysmal ties between the Koreas, during which Seoul’s hardline president was met by North Korean nuclear and rocket tests. Attacks blamed on Pyongyang in 2010 killed 50 South Koreans.

New President Park Geun-hye is settling into office in Seoul after making promises to re-engage the North, but with a vague policy about how to get that done.

The North’s latest statement is unusually specific, warning of “lighter and smaller nukes” and “surgical strikes,” and is seen as noteworthy by Seoul because a senior military official from the Korean People’s Army Supreme Command issued the threats on state TV.

But North Korea has made surprisingly specific threats in the past, including vowing to destroy the headquarters of major South Korean newspapers last year, and then later backed away.

“They make such statements a few times in the average year,” Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, said. “Perhaps it makes them feel good. But practical impact? Zero.”

MILITARY REACTION IN SEOUL

South Korea’s military is taking the North’s threats seriously.

Army Maj. Gen. Kim Yong-hyun, an official with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in nationally televised remarks Wednesday that North Korea was told that the drills starting Monday, which involve 10,000 South Korean and 3,500 U.S. forces, are defensive.

He also indicated that North Korea and its military leadership will suffer if there are any attacks.

“If North Korea goes ahead with provocations and threatens the lives and safety of South Koreans, our military will strongly and sternly retaliate against the command and its supporting forces,” he said.

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Comments (34)

Krutch
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 10:51am
Timed just right for bama. Distract our people from our own plight, the economy in jeopardy. If NK goes to war it will help bama take total control of this country and toss out the Constitution, for our own good, ya know!
This is just one scenario to give bama his third term……… or total control.
Then bama can say he is a dictator. And thanks to the little pimple in NK.

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AUsername
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 10:37am
let North Korea do what they want, America should hate South Korea, for our troops dying in one of their wars.

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- RJJinGadsden
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 11:00am
  How do you continue to muddle through life without ever making any sense whatsoever?
  
  Report this comment
thegreatcarnac
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 10:17am
Like I said before; if the North Koreans want to attack the South then now is a good time to do it while a complete idiot is in the presidential office in America. The armistice agreement is just a piece of paper. The North K’s can say it no longer is in affect all they want but it does not make any difference until that first North Korean thug puts his foot on South Korean soil. We should give the South Koreans a few nuke-tipped missles to counter the North and then it is all even. Let them start the war and we will finish it.

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- pap pap
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 2:11pm
  Just take out pyong-yang and put that little a-hole in his place.
  
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DZ-015
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:51am
Of the nations on earth, many are called, but only Korea is called Chosen.

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SpankDaMonkey
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:51am
.
Ya’ll I have an Uncle who fought at the Chosin Reservoir he was one of 23 who survived out of a Rifle Company of 220. He does not talk about it much but when he does it brings me to tears right along with him. I just called him after I read this story he said he heard about it on the news.

I asked him what he thought about the threat being made his response and I quote:

“F that Little Bastard, if he wants a fight, I may be an Old Marine but I’m still a Marine!”…..

I Love that Old Man….Semper Fi Uncle Max……

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- RJJinGadsden
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 11:01am
  I salute and honor your uncle. My father was drafted during the Korean War.
  
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frogg
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:38am
I get a kick out of some of the stupid comments here. I don’t see any from people who really understand war. Millions of people will die if war resumes in Korea. With the decline of US military power projection, North Korea is starting to think that they will be able to attack without worring about the US gatting involved. This is one of the many problems of having Obama as President. He is the weakest President since Carter. Look what almost happened there in 1976. I was there and we almost went to war then. We are even weaker now!!!!!! Wake up people! Only by being strong can we prevent war.!!!!!!

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- GhostOfJefferson
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:58am
  Yes, spending more than the next 13 remaining nations on the list, on the military, sure sees us as emasculated and a shadow of our former selves.
  
  Seriously guy? Have you looked at our arsenal and ongoing training lately? I wouldn’t like to fight a conventional war against us, that’s for certain. And the Norks are only able to do conventional WW2 type actions (yes, I know they have nukes), which we have prepared for since 1945.
  
  This is a petty little Elvis wannabe dictator trying to show the world that he has a penis. Nothing more, nothing less. If he has the intelligence that God gave turnips he’ll settle down in a bit and chill.
  
  Report this comment
- Cavallo
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 10:01am
  The problem is that we are quickly running out of money to keep the military uber super powered (along with the massive waste that accompanies such a task). What happens when there is no money left to pay the soldiers, buy the gas and bullets? With China buying all our debt, what happens when they yank the rug out from under us?
  
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- Cavallo
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 10:06am
  @Ghost, What if he doesn’t have the sense God gave a turnip, or what if he does and just assumes it is better to go out in a blaze of glory rather than tuck tail and accept reform? The US is spread pretty darned thin, and we may or may not be just fighting Korea alone. What if China gets involved? What if Korea waits for Iran to blow up into a fight then invades? What if they wait a few years for the economic turmoil in the US to get worse? One on one? North Korea stands a snowball’s chance in hell against the US, but war is rarely so neat and clean.
  
  Report this comment
- GhostOfJefferson
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 10:14am
  I agree with the economic assessment Cavallo. The thing is, Nork Boy here is flinging his weenie around right now, today, as if he’s picking a fight. At the risk of waving the flag and blessing apple pie, I strongly suspect that he’s going to make a very tragic mistake (for North Korea) if he persists in being an ignorant idiot 20 something young man.
  
  Report this comment
- objectivetruth
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 12:03pm
  I understand your concern.Its not going to happen at least not the way most think it will.China has no true vetted interest in engaging in war with us.If N korea fires the first shot then S Korea and America will do what is necessary.I suspect that Kim is actually more afraid of China than either S Korea or America.By sound boarding its a deflection of intent.He can’t be seen as weak by China or Russia.One of the keys for me in this story is that he was willing to roll up having presence in the DMZ.While this is an old trick and is suspect from its outset.If it turns to be true then the plate has been set for talks rather than strikes
  Lets say hypothetically he wished to be one country again under the Souths tenants.Could he come right out and say or do that?No of course not.For too many reasons to list here.
  Simply because he says he is ripping up the armistice doesn’t mean he will or that he will fire a shot.Everyone concerned needs to be ready for it though.
  Remember 6p always.6p definition=Prior planning prevents pi@@ poor performance.
  
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termyt
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:24am
The only thing the North has over the South is the threat of nuclear war and the thin hope that China would rescue them again.

Sometime around when the GDP of the South grew to 10 times that of the North, the South should have geared up to force the North to unify under it’s terms. Outside of the first few months of the war, the North is literally no threat to the South with the huge disparity of wealth between the two nations. It is rather like the United States cowering at the thought Mexico might invade.

Yes, that would have meant war. But it’s a war the North can’t fight for long because it has no resources to continue it for more than a few months followed by, worse case, a slow collapse of a few years.

Is the money the South has made (it is a relatively wealthy nation) and the fear of war really worth watching your brothers and sisters to the North starve to death? Or are you afraid, that if you do unify, much of your national treasure will have to be spent modernizing the North? Are they not worth it? Will they not return that investment 100 fold in the decade to follow?

I don’t get what the angst in South Korea is all about. We risked everything to be free. The Koreans don’t seem to think the freedom of their kin is worth blood and treasure.

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- mbean
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 4:18pm
  They could look at Germany and see how unifying with the East has cost them.
  
  Also remember idiots like Psy and his ilk, they vilify the people who saved them. Are the South Korfeans worth the blood for a few cheap Hyundais?
  
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SpankDaMonkey
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:20am
.
SHUT UP & Pull the Trigger then already……

Or I’ll fly over and shove a basketball up your A$$…………

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- objectivetruth
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 1:30pm
  I must know.Will it be one signed by our dear leader obama?
  
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Eastinfection
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:16am
4 IMPORTANT FACTS TO CONSIDER ABOUT NORTH KOREA’S THREAT TO END AN ALREADY FRAGILE CEASE-FIRE

1. Kim Jong Un is insane.
2. Kim Jong Un is insane.
3. Kim Jong Un is insane.
4. Kim Jong Un is insane.

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- GhostOfJefferson
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 10:07am
  Or not, it’s hard to tell if it’s the congenital insanity taking over, or the fact that we have a nuclear powered dictatorship being run by a 23 year old punk. I remember being 23 and I recall being utterly incapable of not being a dillwad most of the time at that age. A yoot like this is trying to show the world that he has a big ******* and is also likely partying up like there’s not tomorrow nearly nightly. Given the iron grip handed to him by his insane father, it’s a bit worrying.
  
  That said, he makes a move and he’s toast. The problem is, he probably either doesn’t know this yet, or he still has the Immortality Complex which infests most early 20′s young men.
  
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Gonzo
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:12am
Where is Dennis Rodman when we really need him?

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- Ben__Franklin
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:47am
  Have no fear South Koreans, President Obama is on the golf course and pivoting towards this international issue with lase like focus.
  
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RedDirtTexas
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:12am
And just as Hyundai stock was on a rally! After 60 years South Korea should draft some of those whining anti-American students and put them in the DMZ to protect themselves.

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Sargeking
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:06am
The mine fields in the DMZ prevent the North Korean’s from making a Chinese mass attack with infantry across the border. If the commies use nukes then the U.S. will wipe them off the map like Red ants on a picnic paper plate. That’s the reality. The North Koreans are all about bluff and bluster and that’s the facts.

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- Cavallo
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:33am
  And if the Chinese say a Nuke attack on the North would be considered an attack on them?
  
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AxelPhantom
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:01am
N. Korea has a new gun and they want to play with it and see what it can do.

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progressiveslayer
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 8:58am
Our troops have been on the DMZ since 1953 and are nothing but a speed bump if the commies decide to invade the south. We should’ve pulled out of there years ago and let the S.Koreans deal with their problem.

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- huey6367
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:01am
  China will side up with North Korea and destroy South Korea. Then the US and Australia and Europe will get involved and, well, you can see where this is going.
  
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- Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:09am
  Absolutely.
  
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- termyt
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:29am
  I doubt China cares all that much. And even China would struggle with South Korea now, if South Korea wanted to fight. We don’t seem to understand how wealthy and powerful South Korea has become. Raising a very well paid army of volunteers would be easy. Spreading their side of the argument and what post-unified Korea would be would also be easy – politicians and the UN respond well to donations.
  
  It would be expensive in both terms of lives lost and treasure spent, but there is no doubt who would win if the war restarts if South Korea has the will to fight it.
  
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- Cavallo
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:43am
  Most likely it would be an expansion of both China and Korea at the same time. Two things might cause the trigger to be pulled. Either in a coordinated strike, following an American natural disaster or terrorist attack, or the North finally thinking they have nothing left to lose and just charging forward. China then calls all its debt due, crushing the American system. Then while North Koreans overrun American positions in South Korea and start to set up a defense of Seoul (they’d be inside the city in under 24 hours), China makes a massive invasion of Taiwan. American forces are scattered all over the world from hell to breakfast. It would be a logistical nightmare to gather the forces necessary to counter a focused strike on South Korea and Taiwan, especially with the greatest economic disaster in the United States ever (of our own making). Then China and Korea offer peace terms after securing a defense of their new conquered territories. With no money to fight a war, would the United States bow it’s head and accept terms?
  
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- GhostOfJefferson
  Posted on March 6, 2013 at 9:55am
  Keep in mind that North Korea is all about fighting wars like they were fought 60 years ago. The mainstay of our armed forces are WELL prepared for a WW2 kind of fight (with nukes added for flavor of course).
  
  The nations that do good against us are those that don’t have a heavy hierarchical command and control structure and who don’t wear uniforms. The Norks are really not thinking this through. I’m not being jingoistic on this one and I generally abhor chest thumping, but the fact of the matter is that they’d be committing every strategic mistake known. They’d be giving the war to us on our terms in a way we are fully prepared and trained to counter, and on their own turf and not ours, thus putting them immediately into a defensive stance after their initial aggression was executed. Sun Tzu would b*tch slap Kim Jung Un silly for these kinds of threats.
  
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RJJinGadsden
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 8:58am
Since the North Koreans have been on the news almost daily for a while now, I keep seeing Lil’ Kim’s highly technical T55 tanks on parade. Okay, they have some reactive armor applied, but the thing is still ’50s technology.

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huey6367
Posted on March 6, 2013 at 8:56am
A nation that likes to flex its muscle wants to end an armistice? What could possibly go wrong?

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