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These Dreadful Charts Really Put Today’s Jobs Numbers Into Perspective

Mar. 8, 2013 10:34am Becket Adams

U.S. unemployment has fallen to its lowest levels since President Obama was elected in 2008, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

And although this is a welcome piece of news, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Indeed, as Alan Krueger, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, reminds us on the White House blog, “more work remains to be done.”

Okay, that’s a bit of an understatement. As the following charts show, we have a long, long way to go before we can get back to pre-recession employment levels.

First, here’s a graph from Bill McBride of Calculated Risk illustrating the current state of labor force participation ratet:

Bill McBride Of Calulated Risk & Planet Money Remind Us That the Damage From the Employment Recession Is Really Pretty Bad

Calculated Risk

“The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although a significant portion of the recent decline is due to demographics,” McBride notes.

But if you think the LFP rate is bad, check out the following chart comparing job losses (in percentage terms) from the start of the “employment recession” to other post-World War II recessions:

Calculated Risk

Yikes.

“This shows the depth of the recent employment recession – worse than any other post-war recession – and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis,” McBride notes.

But wait! There’s more! As it turns out, the current state of job losses is actually scarier than what we see in McBride’s graph.

“[His] chart cuts off when employment gets back to its previous peak. But, because of population growth, getting back to where we were five years ago isn’t enough. To get back to full employment, we need to have millions more jobs than we had then,” Planet Money notes.

Naturally, this raised the obvious question: “What would [the chart] look like if you compared the past five years with comparable periods for all of the other postwar recessions. How much worse is it this time?”

Here’s your answer:

Planet Money. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Credit: Lam Thuy Vo/NPR).

“In previous postwar recoveries, the number of jobs was about 7 percent above its previous peak by this point, on average,” the report notes.

You know what this means, right?

It means that were this a normal (actual?) recovery, there would be approximately 10 million more jobs than at our previous peak. However, as noted in the report, there are three million fewer jobs available.

So, yes, Mr. Krueger, there’s still a lot of work to be done. A lot.

Follow Becket Adams (@BecketAdams) on Twitter

Featured image courtesy Getty Images. This post has been updated.

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Comments (93)

Gildersleeve
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:47am
Our lord barry can do no wrong all hail barry……my a$$. Gas here in central Virginia on avg $3.60 per gallon. Great job barry.
P.S. Still can’t find any freaking ammo.

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- americanfirst
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:59am
  Really? …all going according to plan as far as he’s concerned.
  Are we confused or something?
  Certainly we’re past the “looking glass” on what his intentions really are for you, me and all of us, right?
  
  Report this comment
- tonypro
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:05pm
  It amazes me thatpeople can’t see this is by design, and intentional.
  Why do you think they’ve momentarily backed off of gun control?
  If they control the ammo, guns are useless. Do you really think the gov. needs all those billions of rounds? It was just a means to tie down all the manf. since they have to fill gov. orders first.
  
  I hate to say it or seem like a fear monger, but you’ll see the same thing start happening to food, that you see happening to ammo.
  
  Report this comment
- hatchetjob
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:21pm
  Gosh TONY, I hope not. But I wouldn’t doubt that happening.
  
  Report this comment
- sta
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 1:54pm
  TonyPro- my husband ignored me about stocking up on Ammo. I’m going around him and stocking up on food. Did you know that well backed rice and pinto beans keep for 25 years?
  I’m hoping that I will be able to donate all that I’m stocking to the poor in a few years but I’m not going to have starving kids.
  
  Report this comment
- Eternal
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 2:04pm
  CheaperThanDirt.com has ammo in limited supplies but it is pricey. God bless.
  
  Report this comment
- SUNTZU
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 2:07pm
  Hide your stockpiles well
  The Gov.can take your ammo,all,cause their gonna need it
  and leave you with 3 days of food
  they will share the rest with your neighbors.
  
  Report this comment
- The_Cabrito_Goat
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 3:48pm
  3.90~ cents last week in Ohio. Hasn’t recent science revealed that the majority of oil in the world lies beneath our feet? I thought the Obama legion liked the trendy and new. I thought the left liked science and technology.
  
  And yet we are brought to our knees by Saudis, who would like to see technology return to the bronze age. Guh.
  
  It’s the simplest solution with the greatest payoffs that has ever been presented to mankind. And we’re still without a clue.
  
  Report this comment
- Keatonc333
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 6:11pm
  Ya.. president does not set Gas prices.. and presidential policies do not effect them near as much as you think.
  
  Report this comment
- The-Monk
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 7:06pm
  @Keaty,
  
  That’s not what you guys said when Bush was POTUS….
  
  Can’t have it both ways… well, actually you do.
  
  Report this comment
- NoSleeper
  Posted on March 9, 2013 at 5:45am
  I refuse to be one of those demanding Gov’t assistance 24 hrs after a disaster, natural or man-made. Never asked for help, never taken charity, never will.
  
  I saw some of this coming and stocked up on ammo a while back…have plenty of each caliber. Also invested in a reloader and supplies.
  
  Same with food. Gov’t says 3 days for us in the hurricane zone…beyond that and you are a hoarder. I have several months worth, more for rice and beans. We always rotate stock and donate quite often to the local foodbank.
  
  Liberty through self-sufficiency!
  
  Report this comment
ThoreauHD
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:43am
We LOST 60,000 jobs this month when you calculate in the people that simply vanished from the work force.

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- Sandy
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 2:19pm
  You are correct. Companies are cutting employees all over the place, there is NO way we have added jobs with company cuts that took place and the end of the year and beginning of 2013. People have dropped out of the workforce and the birth/death ratio keeps getting manipulated.
  
  Report this comment
- msjoe43
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 2:43pm
  Companies do not want to pay for Obama Care . . . cut the workforce down to size. . . only hiring part-time employees. . . no more full time employment. . . to get around it.
  
  Report this comment
2GodBeTheGlory
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:37am
If you really think that it’s because of the “housing bust and financial crisis” then by all means… However, I know that the fed is running the show. This was intentional destruction caused by the central banks. Hello people, who was paid off during the last three packages? Remember, follow the money. They caused the “financial crisis” then get paid by you and me to “bail” them out and increase their hold of the people.

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- jcldwl
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:50am
  Right on point.
  
  Report this comment
- oudbob
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:03pm
  Amen
  
  Report this comment
- Micmac
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:42pm
  The banks bailed out were the Prime Trader banks because the Fed needed to be propped up. It was all to save the Fed, populous be damned. JPM had a heavy hand in choices made. For instance, Credite Suisse, an European bank, received massive amounts of bailout money, as they are a Prime Trader. The housing market problems weren’t even in the equation – the govt couldn’t care less, except to get housing into the hands of those that couldn’t afford it. Housing, even though going up in price, is a semi-false bubble for several reasons, including lack of inventory (16% of a normal market), and the holding back of foreclosures.
  
  Report this comment
RodT82721
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:23am
Our dear leader just took a big hit with his chicken-little impession. So now it’s up to that army of pencile pushers in his administration to bring his poll numbers back up.

All the great job numbers are always “seasonally adjusted”, stand by for revision when no one is looking.
I wonder why we pay attention to “experts” that are ALWAYS wrong.

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- tonypro
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:08pm
  Their not always wrong….. they just always lie….quite a difference.
  
  Report this comment
SamIamTwo
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:17am
Obama’s potential army is now rounding at about 89MILLION people unemployed…that is if they take the carrot off the stick.

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- tonypro
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:09pm
  Yep, at that point these peeps won’t have a carrot in the fridge anymore.
  
  Report this comment
HOOT_OWL
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:12am
The liberals hate this chart, they cant defend nor excuse it away .
It like light to roaches.

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- chips1
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:27am
  That’s why it’s in the liberals favor. They don’t have to explain it. The liberal voters will never hear about it and couldn’t care less as long as their slave checks keep coming in the mail.
  
  Report this comment
- Heffe44
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:40am
  What this chart shows me is: Bush tanked the economy worse than any President since WWII and it has taken Obama a long time to get us out the mess, while having to fight against unprecedented Republican obstructionism.
  
  What do you see?
  
  Report this comment
- hatchetjob
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:05pm
  HEFFER, What do I see? A low informed voter…. that’s you.
  
  Report this comment
- firman
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:06pm
  What do you see?
  
  I see you like kool aid!
  
  Report this comment
- PoleSitter
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:10pm
  Heffe44… you make a good point. When I try to analyze charts like this I like to imagine the data I’m looking at as not existing… so completely ignore the red line and focus on the ones above. You’ll see that it was the Post WWII “truman” recession caused by too many men coming back from war without enough employment – but rebuilding Europe quickly supplied jobs. This one is worse, starting in 2007 – Bush’s/2006 Congress’s Fault. But what’s different is the long time of recovery. Unprecidented. *Something* has changed. We saw similar *long*long*long* recovery curves with FDR. What’s changed is the Feds trying to “solve” the problem which prevents the natural course of things… in this case… prolonging the agony. Would you rather have intense pain for a short period – or moderate pain for a long time. Give me the short duration pain. The Government doesn’t have enough “knobs on the machine” to fix this… best to take a few small steps… and stay out of the way. The Economy is far to multi-variant for Krugman/Bernacke to “fix”. I could point you to a few helpful books that discuss complex systems – and how little control you really have… except in screwing things up.
  
  Report this comment
- Heffe44
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 1:48pm
  @PoleSitter
  Thanks for the though out response. It made me think, and I would sincerely like you list a couple of those books you mentioned. But i think there is a hole to your logic. You are assuming all recessions are the same. They are not. This current recession was made more difficult by the great job loss and the never before seen drop in home prices… These things could have been help to recover much fast with a jobs bill (which the Republicans rejected), a larger or second situlus (which the Republicans rejected) or increase infastructure spending to get people back to work (which the Republicans rejected). There only idea was more tax cuts for the wealthy. This recession was going to long road to hoe no matter who was in office but they could have done a great number of things to help, but at every turn all ideas where blocked for no other reason than politics.
  
  Report this comment
- sasquatch08
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 2:26pm
  @Sitter & Hef:
  
  Are you guys serious? Bush “crashed” the economy?
  
  The 2007 crash had a number of causes, but who was President at the time isn’t one of them.
  
  Back in the 90′s congress recognized, and rightly so, that the #1 place people get “wealth” from is owning a home. Congress then set out to increase homeownership (a dumb idea if ever there was one).
  
  They did this by changing laws, HUD rules, and pressuring lenders. You can even go back on youtube and watch people testifying that the system would eventually crash if you allowed 0% down on home mortgages. Chris Dodd and Barney Frank both scoffed at the notion. Dodd even saying “But if we we require a down payment then people can’t afford it!” (They couldn’t afford it anyway).
  
  Fast forward 12-14 years to the mid 2000′s and those people testifying to congress were right. The system, thanks to Dodd and Frank, was loaded with people who couldn’t afford the home they bought, which had artificially spiked home prices and created rampant speculation. Banks were required to make loans they knew were bad, so they sold them to Freddy and Fanny, or diversified the risk with derivatives. Eventually, the music stopped and there weren’t any chairs for anyone.
  
  It’s one thing not to like gambling. It’s another to build a casino and then act outraged that gambling is occurring, which is exactly what Frank and Dodd did.
  
  Report this comment
- AvengerK
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 3:10pm
  By all means HEFFE….outline for me the policies that Bush signed into law that led to the mortgage crisis.
  I’ll be waiting.
  
  Report this comment
- copatriots
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 3:56pm
  Excellent, SASQUATCH! Your words will fall on deaf ears with POLE & HEFFE (which, BTW, sound like porn names) but you are spot on with where the housing collapse started. The problem, as with most useful idiots, is they prefer indoctrination and to be antagonistic versus learning the truth. It makes them feel superior.
  
  @ AVENGER you will be waiting a long time for their responses. While Bush made some really poor choices in other areas, he had precious little to do with the housing collapse. Oh, except for keeping Greenspan around for as long as he did.
  
  Report this comment
- VRW Conspirator
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 4:10pm
  @Heffe44
  
  okay…lets play stupid…I will accept your point if you admit that Bush fixed the recession he got from Clinton…shallowest recession in history and it even had to deal with 9/11 on the back end which is why it was prolonged..
  AND
  I will accept your point it you admit that the recession Carter gave Reagan was the quickest recovery in history and Reagan’s recovery lead to the LARGEST expansion of the US economy in history… look at the lines…nearly a 20% increase in LFP…
  
  I can go through all the other Democrat to Republican transitions and the recessions given to the Republican and do the same thing…over and over and over again….
  
  if you agree with that…then I will agree with you that Bush was so bad that Obama needs 3 times longer than ANYBODY before him to fix things….
  
  Agreed??
  
  Yeah…didn’t think so….jack-hole…
  
  Report this comment
TRILO
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:12am
Any number the federal government puts out is a big fat lie. The way they calculate the unemployment rate has changed many times over the years to make the numbers look better. How can the numbers be good, even if employment is up and real wages and yearly salaries are down. Most of the employment is in low wage, service industries.

These numbers do not even reflect those people who have stopped looking for work.

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DougHuffman
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:10am
296,000 Americans Drop Out of Labor Force in February

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/296000-americans-drop-out-labor-force-february

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clinicalminded
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:06am
When will everyone realize we are the minority. It’s over. First him, then her then God knows who but the fact is the message is lost. This is my first post in nearly a year. Beck is now a comedian, rush is the spotter for the titanic, oreilly is late to the party and hannity has a 4 word vocabulary. I have given up and focus on me. Not idiots that state the obvious yet have no solutions other than lame get togetgers for bigots.

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gyro
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:05am
on cnn the pro is saying this is not so bad

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Nevermind
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:02am
Anyone with half a brain cell knows that the baby boomers are retiring at a rate of 10,000 a day for the next 20 years which would explain the low participation rate. But why let that fact get in the way of bashing good unemployment numbers.

Perhaps you guys should actually look at facts before making stupid assumptions or at least have some mental curiosity and look into the numbers.

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- SR
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:13am
  Smoke and mirrors.
  Real unemployment is 15 %. Unemploment rate is pure propanganda. Doesnt count people who are underemployed, unemployment benefits ran out or those who have quit looking for jobs.
  
  Keep drinking Obama’s Kool-Aid Nevermind
  
  Report this comment
- Think_4_yourself
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:16am
  Help me understand something, if the economy is doing just dandy and bright things are coming……why would the likes of Soros, Buffent, and a bunch of others pull out of the stock market? Would they not want to ride the grand train of our economy?
  
  Why would DHS buy 1.6 billion rounds of ammo, buy 2700 armored personel carriers, DHS build hundreds of unmarked buildings that have cells inside of them?
  
  Why do we have 49 million on food stamps? Hopefully the masses can see through the smoke and mirrors but I am not holding out hope for that.
  
  Report this comment
- AvengerK
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:18am
  Really you idiiot? “Baby Boomers”? We have the highest underemployment rate since WWII. Chronic LONG TERM unemployment and you’re saying it’s baby boomer?
  Is Obama really that important to you?
  
  Report this comment
- biohazard23
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:23am
  @Avenger, yes he is that important to the lemmings running around amongst us. It’s sad but true.
  
  Report this comment
- RNM
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:33am
  @NEVERMIND… they only “do their own research” using the sources Beck gives them. I was wondering how long The Blaze would take to spin this latest jobs number (and net jobs gain in the private sector) into “proving” that the sky is actually still falling.
  
  Report this comment
- Outlaw_Josey_Wales
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:35am
  @THINK 4 YOURSELF
  
  I have come to a conclusion why DHS bought 1.3 billion bullets in 2012. Civil unrest in America is going to happen. The national debt will implode, causing a total financial melt down, worse than the subprime housing crisis in 2009. Total chaos and riots in the streets of America, two things could happen.
  
  1.The people will siege all weapons and ammunition factories, and then the government will blow the
  factories up with air strikes.
  2.The people will refuse to work in or destroy weapons and ammunition factories because they are
  under government control.
  
  Either way, DHS needs a large stock pile of bullets to get through this period of civil unrest that may last months or years.
  
  Report this comment
- Outlaw_Josey_Wales
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:02pm
  @NEVERMIND
  Anyone with half a brain cell knows that the baby boomers are retiring at a rate of 10,000 a day for the next 20 years which would explain the low participation rate.
  —————————————————————————————————————————-
  300,000 baby boomers are retiring every month, 3.65 million per year. My half a brain cell can’t calulate why college graduates can’t find work, why is youth unemployment over 24%?
  
  Report this comment
- AvengerK
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 3:14pm
  JOSEY…you’ll have to wait for NOMIND to get his talking points from media matters…sit tight.
  
  Report this comment
- AvengerK
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 3:16pm
  BIOHAZARD..what’s frightening is idiots like NEVERMIND can’t see a problem with their blind devotion to Obama.
  
  Report this comment
- Justan Noyence
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 3:39pm
  Hey Nevermind, could you read this: http://cuttingthroughthefog.blogspot.com/2012/09/debunking-10000-baby-boomers-retiring.html and then tell us where it’s wrong by backing up you 10,000 figure ?
  
  Report this comment
Cavallo
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:00am
Just watch what will happen when the Fed quits printing money..

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- widowofanAirForcevet
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 1:39pm
  Yes, it is going to get ugly rather soon. If you did not prepare for a disaster, you are too late.
  
  Report this comment
AUsername
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:00am
Peter Schiff is probably right SHTF in a few years or earlier.

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Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:57am
And so the destruction and transformation of the nation under Obama’s insanity continues apace.

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Outlaw_Josey_Wales
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:57am
Government number are bogus

October, 2009
Unemployment (U-3) 10.1%
Workforce participation rate 65%
Food Stamp Recipients 34 million

March, 2013
Unemployment (U-3) 7.7%
Workforce participation rate 63.5%
Food Stamp Recipients 47 million

The unemployment rate don’t support the data. Unemployment rate down, workforce participation rate down, while food stamp recipients up by 13 million

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dublinthewagons
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:56am
The federal reserve is printing more than counterfeit money.
They are printing fake reports for jugears too.
Numbers don’t lie. Liers making up the numbers do.

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- copatriots
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:05am
  Amen, DUB! My post below mirrors your thoughts.
  
  Report this comment
SteelJewel
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:54am
WOW, now this explains why I see so many dad walking the dog at 10:30am and 1:30pm

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- pragmaticpatriot
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:04am
  i saw you too!
  
  Report this comment
- hatchetjob
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 12:19pm
  Where I live young boys are pushing baby strollers down the sidewalks while their shack up honeys are doing who knows what.
  
  Report this comment
FaithfulFriend
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:53am
The thin red line isn’t anywhere near finished with it’s intended reign of havoc.

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Stoic one
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:48am
I would look toward the economic policies coming out of Washington.

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ProudCapitalist
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:47am
This is what happens in a progressive, centrally planned economies, like those of Europe. We need to get rid of democratic-socialism, practiced by the Dems and GOP for the past century, and back to capitalism to fix the job, spending, and most other problems.

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woodyee
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:46am
There you go – my reason for claiming that next they’ll be exhuming Elvis to ring the exchange open – because it’d be as credible as the lower unemployment numbers the gobblement liars put out.

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brovet
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:46am
BO’s policies are really working…not! This is what happens when the least qualified person in the history of this nation is put in charge. Elect a stupid person and you get stupid, less than effective policies.

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- pragmaticpatriot
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:07am
  I disagree, he is doing EXACTLY what he said he would do, just as Hitler and Lenin did just what they said they would do, no one listened to them until it was too late either
  
  Report this comment
- Heffe44
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:45am
  @pragmaticpatriot
  That last comment hardly seem pragmatic.
  
  Report this comment
JGraham III
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:45am
All this administration does is perfect the many ways President O can p*zz on our shoes and tell us its raining.

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Beachmastermax
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:45am
Just waiting for Hyper inflation to hit. We ain’t seen nuthin yet.

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Budrow
Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:42am
No way to track those that fell from the unemployment roles and still haven’t found work. The numbers are bogus have been bogus for a long time and will continue to be bogus.

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- copatriots
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:53am
  The more surprising thing is that anyone believes anything released by 0′s administration and the propaganda press. Of course, the admin wants the sequester pain to be felt and will use anything they can to inflict pain regardless of whether it is actually tied to the sequester. It’s all part of the plan.
  
  Report this comment
- skimmer57
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 10:59am
  Leave it to the Blaze to put a turd in the punch bowl!
- Simple Skeptic
  Posted on March 8, 2013 at 11:01am
  Good point. If things were really improving as dramatically as the powers that be say they are, then why are we still paying records in unemployment benefits…when that gets cut off, I’ll start to believe what is now just a bunch of propaganda.
  
  Report this comment

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