If you haven’t been been looking at the five day forecast dreaming of a white Christmas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pulled together a map based on historical data to give you your chances for a fluffy dusting.

Using weather data from 1981 through 2010 from about 9,800 stations operated by the National Weather Service, this map shows the historical probability of receiving snow.

Probability of Having a White Christmas

White Christmas probability map. (Image source: NOAA)

“While the map shows the climatological probability that a snow depth of at least one inch will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions this year may vary widely from these probabilities because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day,” NOAA advised on its website. “These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely.  For prediction of your actual weather on Christmas Day, check out your local forecast at Weather.gov.”

Based on the current forecast for the coming week, here’s how the Washington Post put the likelihood of snow for various cities:

Locks for a white Christmas: Minneapolis, Green Bay, Duluth, Madison, Traverse City

Likely white Christmas: Chicago, Milwaukee, Des Moines

Maybe white Christmas: Kansas City, St. Louis, Joplin, Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland

Unlikely white Christmas: Springfield (Mo.), Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Albany, and south and east

NOAA’s National Climate Data Center keeps tabs on daily snowfall if you’re interested in more specific snow status.

For travel tips over the holidays or in particularly wintry weather, check out TheBlaze’s Thanksgiving post that has several still relevant tips.

(H/T: io9)