Former New York Times statistician Nate Silver — who just launched his own website, FiveThirtyEight — has an election forecast that Democrats won’t be happy to hear.
According to Silver, the GOP has a roughly 60 percent chance of winning the necessary six seats to take control of the Senate — and a 30 percent chance of winning control in an even bigger fashion, with the potential of capturing up to 11 seats.
“When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up,” Silver wrote on his website. “That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.”
“We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber.”
“Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber,” he continued. “The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before.”
“Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions,” Silver concluded.
Appearing on ABC’s “This Week,” Silver — who successfully predicted every state in the 2012 election, according to Mediaite — explained to host George Stephanopoulos how he and his team crunched the numbers.
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