AP Claims to Find ‘Factual Stretches’ in GOP Debate
- Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:59am by
Billy Hallowell
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Editor’s Note: The following “fact check” was composed by The Associated Press and not The Blaze. Below, find the “factual stretches” the AP claims to have found during last night’s GOP debate:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Rick Perry 1.0 thought Social Security was a “disease” inflicted on the population by the federal government.
Rick Perry 2.0 thinks Social Security deserves to be saved “for generations to come.”
That metamorphosis by the Republican presidential hopeful over recent months contributed to some factual stretches Monday night in a GOP debate, both by the Texas governor and his opponents for the nomination.
A look at some of the claims in the debate and how they compare with the facts:
—
PERRY: On Social Security for younger workers, “No one’s had the courage to stand up and say, here is how we’re going to reform it.”
THE FACTS: Many have done just that. Former President George W. Bush and a variety of Republicans since, including some running for president now, have stood for the position that Social Security should be partially privatized, enabling younger workers to divert some of their payroll taxes to individual investment accounts while the entitlement program is kept whole for those already using it or close to retirement.
MITT ROMNEY: “The real issue is, in writing his book, Gov. Perry pointed out that in his view that Social Security is unconstitutional, that this is not something the federal government ought to be involved in, that instead it should be given back to the states.”
THE FACTS: Perry indeed roundly criticized Social Security in his book, but not quite to the point of calling it unconstitutional. In words he is trying to walk back now, Perry branded the program the “best example” of the “fraud” and “bad disease” spread by Washington in Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. Perry furthermore criticized the Supreme Court of that era for “abdicating its role as the protector of constitutional federalism.”
That falls somewhere short of declaring Social Security unconstitutional.
Perry now has abandoned such rhetoric, adopting the conventional Republican view in a USA Today column Monday that its finances must be made whole to protect current and imminent retirees and make it viable for “generations to come.”
—
MICHELE BACHMANN: Obama “stole over $500 billion out of Medicare to switch it over to Obamacare. … These are programs that need to be saved to serve people, and in their current form, they can’t.”
ROMNEY: “He cut Medicare by $500 billion. This is a Democrat president. The liberal, so to speak, cut Medicare. Not Republicans, the Democrat.”
THE FACTS: “Stole” is a hyperbolic way to describe the kinds of shifts in budget priorities that happen every day in Washington. To pay for expanded insurance coverage, Obama’s health care law cuts $500 billion in payments to the Medicare Advantage program – which a congressional agency said was being overpaid – and to hospitals and nursing homes. Nearly all House Republicans, including Bachmann, later voted for a GOP budget plan that retained the same cuts Obama had made.
—
PERRY: The $814 billion economic stimulus program pushed by President Barack Obama “created zero jobs.”
THE FACTS: There is no support for that assertion. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said last year that the stimulus increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million as of mid-2010. It cut the unemployment rate between 0.7 and 1.8 percentage points, the CBO found.
Economists debate whether the stimulus lived up to its promise or was worth the cost, but no one seriously argues that it created no jobs. Many believe it helped to end the recession even while falling short of its employment goals.
—
BACHMANN: “I was one of the only people in Washington that said do not raise the debt ceiling. Don’t give the president of the United States another $2.4 trillion blank check.”
THE FACTS: Love or hate the debt deal, it was not a blank check for the president. Congress controls spending. The president can only suggest how the budget should be divvied up. Moreover, the “check” was not exactly blank. The deal that averted a national default requires automatic spending cuts to kick in if Congress does not accept cuts that will be proposed by a supercommittee.
—
RON PAUL: As a Texan, “my taxes have gone up. Our taxes have doubled since (Perry’s) been in office. Our spending has gone up double. Our debt has gone up nearly tripled.” Perry responded that he had cut taxes by $14 billion in 65 different pieces of legislation.
THE FACTS: Even though they seem to be contradicting each other, both have a point. Overall, the tax burden has grown, but shifted to some extent from state to local governments. Based on statewide tax collection figures, it is quite probable that Paul’s total tax burden has doubled. But Perry did sign 65 pieces of legislation that reduced taxes. Taxes would be much higher in Texas if those laws had not gone into effect.
As for spending, it’s reaching $86 billion in the next two years, up from $56 billion in Perry’s first two years as governor. That’s not quite double, as Paul claimed.
Texas’ debt has tripled, primarily because of a Perry-backed move that allows the state to finance road construction with bonds instead of having to use cash.




















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Comments (111)
ROMANS 10-9
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:26amI too feel Michele did well. I loved what she said she would bring to the White House “Constitution, Bill of Rights and Decleration of Independance.” Go Michele!
Michelle Bauchman is WINNING my vote!
T. Norwood
Report Post »GrannyATL
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:33amAgree. Bachman is the only candidate that stays steady, not having to apologize for past mistakes. She’s been solid for her whole career. So far, she’s got my vote!
BUT, I’m still praying Col West gets in the race! I’d volunteer for him in a heartbeat!
Report Post »cripplecreek
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:07amOnly Bachmann and Cain have my trust. The rest are simply political opportunists.
Report Post »ChiefGeorge
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:25amIf they do not know the facts by now then they do not deserve to be elected president. We already have one of those know it alls who knows nothing at all. The truth should not be so hard to tell that you need to stretch it out of position. Just tell the truth of what shape this country is in…Americans can respect frank honest talk.
Report Post »True American66
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:36amMichelle was great…I like Perry and believe it or not Newt & Cain did really good also. I’ll take any one of them over the current disaster.
btw…did anyone feel the same way I did about the singing of our national anthem? That lady mangled it…it was off key and flat. Do you think CNN had a no-talent singer on purpose?…I realize that anybody can have a bad night, but……WOW
Report Post »True American66
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:45amI almost forgot….What about the introductions?…CNN made sure to LABEL each candidate before the debate started….“The Fighter”…“The Libertarian”…“The whatever”…like the American people are too stupid to decide for themselves what to think of each individual. They blatantly tried to skew the view of each person before the debate even started. I guess they were just trying to “inform” their “international” viewship….yea right CNN….biased much?
Report Post »MONICNE
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:11pmMichele was treated unfairly. The unflattering camera angles made her look short and kind of feminine.
All the men looked tall, dark and manly except Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich.
TEA
Report Post »IntransigentMind
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:37pmSo who “Won the debate?” One answer:
Report Post »http://markamerica.com/2011/09/13/only-one-republican-is-shaping-the-debate/
AvengerK
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:42pmSomeone please remind the AP that the “2.5 million jobs” Obama keeps crowing about is from a formula that comes from a theory, it’s NOT ACTUAL JOBS created. The formula says that for every dollar the government spends, 1.5 dollars’ worth of economic activity is generated, and presto, jobs come out. The economic geniuses working for Obama want us to believe that by definition, since they spent almost a trillion dollars in ‘stimulus’, they automatically created 2.4 million jobs. This is called the multiplier effect.
The Congressional Budget Office reported that through the first quarter of 2011 the stimulus created between 1.6 million and 4.6 million jobs, increased real GDP by 1-3 percent, and reduced unemployment by up to 1.8 percentage points. Where did the CBO get these figures? It made them up! Using multiplier formulas — how scientific! Payments to state and local governments for infrastructure were estimated to have a multiplier of between 1 and 2.5, whereas the multiplier for unemployment benefits, food stamps to individuals was between 0.8 and 2.1.
That’s it. That’s the only reality to 2.5 million jobs created or saved.
Report Post »jzs
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:46pmThank you Blaze for posting a fact check.
Report Post »NJD
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 2:14pmBachmann is more annoying than Kristen Powers. She has gotten to the point to where I can not even listen to her speak anymore. It’s alway I or me me me with her. I defended her when Santorum tried to tell her to stop because everythign you tried to fight we got but it is ridiculous now, she has to do something different. You don’t think a copy of the Constitution or the Bill of Rights are already in the White house? Why isn’t she crying over the other vaccines the government forces everyone to have?
Report Post »Ruler4You
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 2:35pm“Factual stretches?” You mean like in 98% of AP ‘stories’? Yeah, right!
Report Post »Secret Squirrel
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 4:53pm.
Report Post »Dear AP:
Where can I go to read your “fact check” on Obama’s Jobs speech?
I’ve already found some whoppers. Maybe you should hire me.
Hello? Hello? I guess they hung up.
Detroit paperboy
Posted on September 14, 2011 at 4:38amAnd since when did the ap start giving a rats azz a out facts ?
Report Post »Detroit paperboy
Posted on September 14, 2011 at 4:44amFacts ? AP all of the sudden cares about facts. What about the fact that we have a committed
Report Post »Marxist in the white house, or as queen michele calls it
“ the peoples house ”
CurtisH
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:25amBig deal, so a couple candidates stretched the facts to make a point that they differ from their opponents. It still falls well short of the blatant lies that come from progressives.
Report Post »godhead
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:40amParry said, the stimulus created zero jobs.
Blatant lie. That’s what conservatvies do for a living. Check the CBO.
Next.
Report Post »JRook
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:06amOur problem in a nutshell. When ones own candidate lies that is stretching the truth. When the other candidate says something that is even factual they are of course lying. But what should we expect from people who seek biased news and “journalists” who stretch facts, logic to give their viewers information the way they want to hear it. The stimulus didn’t have any impact on jobs, but of course the 500,000 jobs lost per month and a $1.2 trillion deficit during last year of Bush means we should cut taxes on wealthy more.
Report Post »TEA4Me
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:49amOnly a few valid points made by AP. Mostly it was nitpicking. Can’t wait to see the lies told by Barry during the Presidential Debates. Although, by that time, I suspect AP will have lost it’s interest in the “facts…”
Report Post »TWO BITS
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:25amWhew! So far, so good. None of the Republican candidates have a mentor like Reverend Wright, or have visited 57 states, or love the sound of Muslim prayers. Smooth sailing!
Report Post »Bill Rowland
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:57pmDon’t forget his wife hates our flag ans is ashamed of America.
Psalm 109:8
Report Post »Liberalismsamentaldisorder
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:20amif the ap would only fact check their own “news” stories
Report Post »jvlag3
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:31pmAgreed
Report Post »momsense
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:13amAnything the AP says has stretches is in all likelyhood 100% correct. They’re the “mother lode” of the miainstream media.
Report Post »WakeUp
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:12amSeems the AP needs a fact checker for themselves… Here’s a news flash AP…. Many of your comments are OPINIONS, NOT FACTS
Report Post »bigglesworth
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:09amI’m glad that the AP is vetting the candidates. They should have began with Obama three years ago, but it’s never too late to start.
Let’s do a little fact checking on the AP, shall we: $814B to create 1.4M to 3.3M jobs… That’s $246,667 to $581,429 per job. We‘re only two years into this stimulus so let’s divide those numbers by 2. I’d hesitate to give any more than this as many of the recipients of this money are again teetering on the edge of insolvency, hence the need for a second round of stimulus. So, we’re looking at jobs costing the taxpayer anywhere from $123,334 to $290,715 per year.
AP, can your business model support paying all of your employees, and any newhires, $123,334 to $290,715 per year?
Report Post »Nlitend1
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:09amNew jobs were only one of the goals of the spending. They also delivered a number of new construction projects that would have required buying the materials aside from performing the labor. I like your numbers but you need a reality check for your fact check
Report Post »bigglesworth
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:43amNlitend1:
New jobs were only one of the goals of the spending. They also delivered a number of new construction projects that would have required buying the materials aside from performing the labor. I like your numbers but you need a reality check for your fact check
Nlitend1, while you are correct, in any business, the greatest overhead is the labor. I believe materials and other capex costs would have been 10% or less of the total pricetag, though we’ll probably never know the real numbers.
Report Post »spirited
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:04pmIs it a fact that there were construction signs that cost $10,000.00 each?
Report Post »HuskerDave
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:57amI regularly find ‘factual stretches’ in AP articles.
Report Post »zman61
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:52amthe same thing that happened in 2008 is happening again for this election. The media is choosing the GOP Candidate. They are pushing Romney and Perry to the front. They hope to make one of them the designated loser as they did with McCain in 2008.
Report Post »zman61
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:56amthis is just a distraction. The media as a whole, minus FOX, is in the tank for the DIms and Dear Leader Chairman Maobama…
Report Post »team1blazer
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 3:39pmzman61 You are 100% correct. We conservatives are again allowing the lame stream media to dictate who our “frontrunners” are. MSM says it is Romney or Perry, so that is where all the attention goes. Well folks, here’s the problem, Romney and Perry are Both RINOS. They will not fix the problems which Obama & company have created. We must have a REAL conservative this time around, or we’re toast. Gingrich, Cain, Santorum, Bachman, heck even Paul, but not Romney or Perry.
Report Post »gulph
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:51amAs far as I’m conserned, AP is no longer a viable news source when they are so clearly a willing progressive co-conspirator.
Report Post »sWampy
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:57amAmen, if they called out the liberals out on their ball faced lies, they would have no time to write about anything else. Everything the liberals spew is lies, after all, it’s all based on the false assumption that socialism/communism is the most fair and perfect form of government possible.
Report Post »LICENSEDTOCARRY
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:38amAP is another so called news organization that has lost all credibility.
Report Post »Locked
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:30amQuestion for a lot of you: obviously there’s a bunch of AP hate here. Which of their responses, exactly, are wrong? As usual there seems to be a liberal slant, but the numbers they came up with… are any of them wrong?
It just sounds like a bunch of “Boo, they’re anti-GOP!” without any look into if they have a point of not. A case of shooting the messenger because you don’t like him, but ignoring the message even if it has truth in it.
Report Post »Goldoxide
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:33amLocked. It’s not that what the AP is saying about the candidates is so wrong (I applaud thir fact checking), it‘s that they didn’t do the same for Obama. They are clearly partisan.
Report Post »HUNITHUNIT
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:04amThis very site had an article in which the AP had fact checked Obama’s jobs speech.
Report Post »Nlitend1
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:12am@goldoxide
Report Post »they regularly fact check president obama and they did so during his campaign for president as well.
jvlag3
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:37pm@Nlitend1 and you idiots still voted for him…so which facts did they check?
Leadership abilities – none;
Economic abilities – none, etc…
He got a pass on his time in office, voted present and wouldn’t commit to anything, yet thinks he the best qualified person to run the country
Report Post »yougottabekidding
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:30amCouple of questions.
Report Post »How much would the taxes have gone up if they were not supporting illegales in any way shape or form?
As far as the jobless didn’t we have a change under the Hussain administration as to how we calculate unemployment? Seems to me thats amajore factor. How much would it be under the old calculations?
And I do not care what anybody says, Executive orders by any body should only be good for a short period then have to be approved by the appropriate lawmakers to carry for another short period, or a law is passed.
Stuck_in_CA
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:51am@yougottabekidding “How much would the taxes have gone up if they were not supporting illegals in any way shape or form?”
Report Post »Indeed. Unemployment etc., too. The cost of allowing illegals to stay, and giving them ANY type of benefit, only encourages more of them.
All these politicians who support the Dream Act/Amnesty, cause so much harm to our citizens. The cost is enormous.
MONICNE
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:25amIt’s very tempting to jump on people for saying things that are not factually possible to verify, when we should be worrying about turning the country around, and not focusing on just a bunch of facts.
These harmless fake issues – like hypothetically allowing a young uninsured father to die — are just meant to motivate people to act in the correct way, just as Christ would use a parable to get a point across.
TEA
Report Post »Airgun
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:05amScaring people to get votes isn’t harmless, troll.
Report Post »MONICNE
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:03pmDear Airgun, why do you call me a “troll,” and what is that?
Report Post »Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:25amThe Democrats and Progressives are attempting to save their sinking ship, now with the water almost to the rails and they are losing quickly; expect the cause to turn past the usual distortions and the fabrication of lies when the truth hurts their cause (usually it does dramatically).
What now needs to be watched for is the bold grab for power and control in the most dramatic and open of means and ways, such that most people will refuse to see and hear what is right there in front of them.
Failing this, they will execute a final scorched earth to take down everything they can.
Report Post »PITA
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:11amSNOWLEOPARD
Report Post »Failing this, they will execute a final scorched earth to take down everything they can.
I too believe that they, Democrats and Progressives or Socialist and Communist. All freinds
of George Soros. If a Republican wins The White House, they will make the stockmarket crash.
Have China, sell all of our bonds. Make our rating go even lower.
To show what happens, when to reject PROGRESSIVES!!!
John 3:16
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:21amThe liberal media is in damage control after hearing all the conservative, common sense, verbage. They really hated for the people to hear the truth about their muslim/communist president. I wish someone would have threatened to prosecute Obama for sedition after he losees the election in the coming storm and record loss 2012. It’s coming folks. Ron Paul is toast and may as well drop out. Mitt Romney is toast. Newt is very intelligent but is not dependable and has RINO VIRUS. Michele did well. I loved what she said she would bring to the White House “Constitution, Bill of Rights and Decleration of Independance.” Go Michele!
Report Post »bolsen00
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:22amJohn–Your comments are always worthless! You’re nothing but an evangelist tea partier trying to push Perry. Your in the group that refuses to pay attention to facts, no better than the group ignoring facts that elected Obozo. Perry has lot of serious problems with his record and he’s not getting a pass anymore. Romney’s the only one who can become president…stick with Perry you re-elect Obozo. It’s your fault…those are the facts.
Report Post »ROMANS 10-9
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:31amMichelle Bauchman is the future for our country
by returning to Family Values and The Constitution!
Bauchman -vs- Obasher
Report Post »Miguelito
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:19amWatch the main stream media try to choose the GOP candidate! Main stream media appears to be for Romney, mainly because Romney is a progressive. Romney thinks you can have big government and free enterprise. The problem is big government sucking freedom out of America. Don’t be fooled good people, read between the lines and listen to what the GOP candidates are saying just like Obama’s words of transforming America!!!!!
Report Post »Gonzo
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:16am…and we all know there is no liberal bias in the A.P.
Report Post »bolsen00
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:59amAOEMedioY Glenn Beck has enough bias for him and the AP put together and then some. Beck’s opening rant this morning was ridiculous. Obviously moving to Texas makes Beck think he has to convince the country that he is the smartest person around. Problem…if others agreed and wanted to move to Texas, THEY WOULD! Beck needs to pay more attention to Perry‘s book that he’s trying to distance himself from. AP put it perfectly…how does Perry get away with calling social security a disease and monstrous lie in the first debate, and say that it needs to be fixed and preserved in the second debate? Beck is sooo in Perry’s camp that he has no criticism for Perry…but amazingly all of those smart candidates have plenty of criticism for how Perry’s followers and cronies are giving him a free pass to slide all the way to the nomination that will be purely symbolic since Perry will not win in the general election. How Beck is okay with Perry’s pay to play politics is a wonder to listen to and watch! Beck is personally backing a man who forced little girls to take a shot for HPV through executive order over the wishes of the parents! That action alone should be enough to have him dismissed from public office for the rest of his life. Not to mention immigration problems, low wages paid to citizens, being a democrat promoting Gore and supporting Hillary, high school drop out rates, Perry’s poor education and grades, the mediocrity and failures by Perry go on and on!
Report Post »proudpatriot77
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:13amI heard the AP was gonna fact check Obummer’s jobs speech but ran out of memory space. I have liked these debates. Bringing out alot on the frontrunners, but not focusing on the darkhorses.
Report Post »Locked
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:12am“MICHELE BACHMANN: Obama “stole over $500 billion out of Medicare to switch it over to Obamacare. … These are programs that need to be saved to serve people, and in their current form, they can’t.”
THE FACTS: Nearly all House Republicans, including Bachmann, later voted for a GOP budget plan that retained the same cuts Obama had made.”
Zing. Like Bachmann had much credibility to start with.
Report Post »momsense
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:15amAsk the seniors who are losing their medicare advantage how they like it ! then go talk to the illegals who will benefit from the changes. I know health care workerw who are already seeing the results of the changes.
Report Post »Airgun
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:03amYou left out the part about those funds being cut and not then immediately spent elsewhere.
Report Post »In the House plan, those funds were eliminated from the budget altogether, not merely shifted to some other pet progressive project.
The idea was to shrink govt. and save money, not buy votes by bribing crooked politicians and the dependent classes.
AvengerK
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 1:52pmAnd there AIRGUN is the difference between the subterfuge and dishonesty of Obama and the democrats and the clear moves of the GOP house. Obama called that 500 billion a cut. In fact nothing was cut, it was simply doublecounted and moved to Medicare as part of Obamacare. Obama plays Three Card Monty. The GOP budget (as opposed to NO BUDGET from the democrats in over 800 days) actually CUT $500 billion outright.
Report Post »randy
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:12amAP CLAIMS TO FIND ‘FACTUAL STRETCHES’ IN GOP DEBATE???
Oh give me a break AP.
Everyday Obama opens his mouth, FACTUAL STRETCHES pour out!
Report Post »tobywil2
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:14amIf Obama’s teleprompter malfunctioned and flashed the TRUTH and Obama chocked on that truth, could the HEIMLICH MANEUVER be applied in time to avoid Biden becoming President? http://commonsense21c.com/
Report Post »tobywil2
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:11amThe AP should apply the same rigorous analysis to its own news releases and President Obama’s starements! http://commonsense21c.com/
Report Post »freedomweiner
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:15amhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltH78MyOKao
Report Post »Jimmy Chowda
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:07amI like how a lot of the facts are the reporter’s opinions.
Report Post »Lloyd Drako
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:03amSo, um, who won?
Report Post »bolsen00
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:12amRomney won of course! Romney remains the most substantive, controlled, presidential, and smartest candidate. All of the candidates did well except for Perry. His days of getting a pass during debates are over! Perry‘s record isn’t as great as he thinks it is inside of Texas. Romney said it best last night…”If you think the rest of the nation is just like Texas, vote for Perry. If you agree that the country needs a turn around, that’s what I do!”
Report Post »EqualJustice
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:01amThe liberals are disappointed by how well ALL the candidates performed, so they will knit pick and take comments out of context!
Report Post »Jack of Hearts
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:59amHa, ha, ha, ha! Thanks for that – oops, you were serious weren’t you? So which one of the Addams family tribute band in the picture do you think “won”?
Report Post »Airgun
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:09amMichelle.
Report Post »MONICNE
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:08pmThey all said their lines very well, everyone was well prepared. I thin Ron Paul came across as the most honest and open, because the others kept smiling and rolling their eyes when he has the floor.
Due to poise and preparation. Michele Bachmann will rise 6 points in polls to be ~15%. She will steal 5 points from Perry and 1 point from Romney.
TEA
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