Business

The Secrets of ‘System D’: As Global Economy Falls, Black Market Rises

Perhaps one of the most overlooked consequences of the global financial crisis is the explosion of growth economists have seen in the black markets. Everyone knows about the underhand sale of goods, but few understand just how much covert street vendors and back alley dealers affect the world economy.

The rule is this: wherever there are strict – and usually unreasonable — government controls, there will be black markets. People will get around those controls. And although most people tend to view these market “agreements” as a “negative,” because they involve disobeying civil laws, some noted economists see the black market as a morally neutral (or even “positive”) market force.

“Well, the black market was a way of getting around government controls. It was a way of enabling the free market to work,” said famed economist Milton Friedman. “It was a way of opening up, enabling people. You want to trade with me, and the law won’t let you. But that trade will be mutually beneficial to both of us.”

Friedman explains:

The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit. The big difference between government coercion and private markets is that government can use coercion to make an exchange in which A benefits and B loses. But in the market, if A and B come to a voluntary agreement, it’s because both of them are better off. And that’s what the black market does, is to get around these artificial government restrictions.

Now, obviously you’d like a world in which you obey the law. The fact that the black market involves breaking the law is something against it. It’s an undesirable feature. But this only exists when there are bad laws. And nobody, nobody believes that obeying every law is an ultimate moral principle. There comes a point, if you look back at the history of law obedience — think of conscientious objection during wars — I think you will see that everybody agrees that there is a point at which there is a higher law than the legislative law.

Therefore, with Friedman’s understanding of black markets, and considering the rapid expansion of government controls compounded with the global economic crisis — is it any wonder that these illicit markets have swollen to such enormous sizes?

Wait a minute — just how big have the black markets become?

Small, illegal, off-the-books businesses collectively account for trillions of dollars in commerce and employ fully half the world’s workers, says Robert Neuwirth, author of “Stealth of Nations: The Global Rise of the Informal Economy,” according to a recent Wired report. And more than just being generators of cash, Neuwirth claims these enterprises are “critical sources of entrepreneurialism, innovation, and self-reliance.”

As these illicit markets have grown during the recession, they’ve added jobs, increased sales, and (believe it or not) improved the lives of hundreds of millions, Neuwirth’s book claims.

Shadow Markets of the World

“If all the world’s informal markets were formed into a single independent nation, its $10 trillion economy would be the second-largest on the planet (behind only the US),” writes Robert Capps of Wired. “These markets thrive in places where taxes are low, poverty is high, and resources are scarce. The colors on this map indicate the size of each country’s underground economy, as a percentage of its GDP.”

As the Global Economy Falls, the Black Market RisesAs the Global Economy Falls, the Black Market RisesSource: Friedrich Schneider et al., “New Estimates for the Shadow Economies All Over the World,” International Economic Journal, 2010 (image courtesy: Wired)

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“It’s time,” Neuwirth says, “for the developed world to wake up to what those who are working in the shadows of globalization have to offer.”

Wired had a chance to sit down with Neuwirth and ask him about black market growth and its overall impact on the world economy. Below is an excerpt from that exchange:

Wired: You refer to the untaxed, unlicensed, and unregulated economies of the world as System D. What does that mean?

Robert Neuwirth: There’s a French word for someone who’s self-reliant or ingenious: débrouillard…I decided to use this term myself—shortening it to System D—because it’s a less pejorative way of referring to what has traditionally been called the informal economy or black market or even underground economy. I’m basically using the term to refer to all the economic activity that flies under the radar of government. So, unregistered, unregulated, untaxed, but not outright criminal—I don’t include gun-running, drugs, human trafficking, or things like that.

“There are the guys who sneak stuff out of the port. The guys who get it across the border. The truck loaders and unloaders. All working under the table.”

Wired: Certainly the people who make their living from illegal street stalls don’t see themselves as criminals.

Neuwirth: Not at all. They see themselves as supporting their family, hiring people, and putting their relatives through school—all without any help from the government or aid networks.

Wired: The sheer scale of System D is mind-blowing.

Neuwirth: Yeah. If you think of System D as having a collective GDP, it would be on the order of $10 trillion a year. That’s a very rough calculation, which is almost certainly on the low side. If System D were a country, it would have the second-largest economy on earth, after the United States.

Wired: And it’s growing?

Neuwirth: Absolutely. In most developing countries, it’s the only part of the economy that is growing. It has been growing every year for the past two decades while the legal economy has kind of stagnated.

Wired: Why?

Neuwirth: Because it’s based purely on unfettered entrepreneurialism. Law-abiding companies in the developing world often have to work through all sorts of red tape and corruption. The System D enterprises avoid all that. It’s also an economy based on providing things that the mass of people can afford—not on high prices and large profit margins. It grows simply because people have to keep consuming—they have to keep eating, they have to keep clothing themselves. And that’s unaffected by global downturns and upturns.

Wired: Why should we care?

Neuwirth: Half the workers of the world are part of System D. By 2020, that will be up to two-thirds. So, we’re talking about the majority of the people on the planet. In simple pragmatic terms, we’ve got to care about that.

Click here to read the full interview.

Comments (74)

  • Workforit
    Posted on January 10, 2012 at 7:00am

    “There ought to be a law…”

    Oh wait… There is! … 72,000+ pages of them…

    Glad to know that works, and that it works so well!

    Ron Paul 2012!

    Report Post »  
    • gemologist
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 12:17pm

      No, we can’t vote for ron paul, he is old, looks odd and has a kooky love for those that love the koran.

      I mean seriously, how can that not just disqualify him, Who cares that he would get our system back to what works so we have the opportunity to make wealth for ourselves through hard work like we used to, who cares that he would lower the level of governmental intrusion, balance the budgets, limit executive power, and in all other ways promote freedom and personal responsibility for american’s.

      That might make us feel unsafe. And the last thing we can get used to is feeling unsafe. Lets just let the government tuck us in at night, its better than having someone who wants to talk to Iran instead of punishing them.

      Report Post »  
    • Burtb0
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 10:31pm

      Ron Paul may want to do a number of things, but last I checked, President is not emperor.

      And when the GOP figures out that Obama’s illegal “Recess ” appointments can and should be opposed thru lawsuit, Obama, too, may finally figure out that he was elected President, not emperor.

      So if we all drink the cool-aid and vote Ron Paul, he will not be able to accomplish much (apart from abolishing the Energy, Education, Commerce, and HHS departments)… which, while great, will not make up for Iran getting an Atomic bomb.

      Report Post »  
  • 7four7
    Posted on January 10, 2012 at 6:53am

    Problem with giving this visibility is that the Governments believe they are entitled to levy taxes on those transactions. Very difficult to do when they are done with Cash. Solution: Electronic monetary system. Even transactions between private citizens will be Taxed. The only way to avoid this would be the Barter system. Get ready folks. It may be closer than we think.

    Report Post »  
    • gemologist
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 12:23pm

      It can’t work. The reason that there is a black market is because of the lack of foresight that the over-regulation of goods and services demonstrates. However we would be better off with romney, he has great hair, measured presidential tone, and lots of campaign money from the big pocket donors. Yeah, he would steadily grow government intrusion to the point that selling fatty foods became an illegal activity, and we would all lose the freedoms we once had, but he has great hair. Isn’t that so much more important, oh and he would tell Iran how bad it is to be trying to make it into the nuke club. Thats really really important too.

      Report Post »  
    • liberum1776
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 7:30pm

      Italy is doing this…1000euros or more purchase in cash is illegal…credit card xactions are recorded and stored. Going eu wide once it is shown to work and then world wide most likely….barterr is the only thing that will work for the future…that or revolution

      Report Post »  
  • BHOMustFail
    Posted on January 10, 2012 at 6:50am

    And thus the need for a FAIR TAX….it doesn’t matter what is earned, how it is earned or where it is earned….tax EVERYONE (which is the definition of FAIR) on what they spend, not on what is earned. So if you earn millions and hoard it, so be it, you keep what you earn. But if you earn it and spend it (which is why most people earn money, duh!…then tax is collected when spent. NO more IRS, do more tax returns, etc…So simple but resisted by those who want to CONTROL you.

    Report Post » BHOMustFail  
    • juancarnuba
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 1:52pm

      I agree. The Fair Tax would solve this, but it will take away power from the government, so Congress won’t pass it. Vote for people who support the Fair Tax.

      Report Post »  
  • nomark
    Posted on January 10, 2012 at 6:35am

    AWESOME! Friedman toasts in his grave.

    Report Post »  
  • mattmo79
    Posted on January 10, 2012 at 12:20am

    Capitalism will always find a way!!

    Report Post » mattmo79  
    • 1casawizard
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 5:36am

      Ditto. Sounds good to me.

      Report Post » 1casawizard  
    • clouviere
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 11:20am

      What you meant to say was that the Free Market will always find a way. The Free Market involves Capitalism, but Capitalism is not the Free Market.

      Report Post »  
  • iseenthelight
    Posted on January 10, 2012 at 12:18am

    I live in certain ways as a minimalist. I am a very heavy believer of the bartering system. The majority of the previous comments describes why. Years ago (1987) I was working in Dayton Ohio as a salesperson of a secretarial school working 70 + hrs aweek. I went on an appointment and my prospect had all the pay TV channels,a three year old riviera, five children with one in the oven, a non working boyfriend and about a gram of weed left from last weeks dope run. When I asked for a downpayment of 50 dollars she said she had it but it was set aside for her boyfriends birthday present. When I asled what that might be sheit was a bag of killer skunkweed. That experience confirmed and reinforced my lack of desire to contribute as little as possible to the government for their redistribution of my money. I buy and sell through favors and mutual values since…ie Ill put a roof on your house in return for whatever you might no longer need or want I could use.
    I do believe about 40 to 50% of my tax dollars deliever a return of value ( police,fire,roads ,military, elderly needs )but thats about it.

    Report Post »  
    • 1casawizard
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 5:40am

      I heard that, but only certain times of the year. Things work out,tho.

      Report Post » 1casawizard  
  • AxelPhantom
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 10:51pm

    Another market that is making it big these days is bartering. Our neighbor keeps his horse in our pasture, and whenever we have a plumbing problem or need to do some remodeling he comes over and takes care of it.

    Most of the Russian/communist block millionairs were black maket people (also Russian Mob). It was exceptionally profitable.

    Report Post »  
    • Sirfoldallot
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 11:29pm

      Our goverment is berried in a mountan of law, so the black market is going to thrieve.

      Report Post » Sirfoldallot  
  • BruceHenry
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 10:36pm

    I’m not for selling drugs and such for income, but I never mind a good super bowl pot, or shading on paying taxes by paying cash. After our government set up and ran “Fast and Furious” which led to the death of one of my fellow Marines I really don’t care if people avoid giving the government any of their money.

    Report Post »  
  • VoteRightDammit
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 10:07pm

    “BLACK market” ??????????/

    Why, how RACIST !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Must be that evil Sarah Palin again …………..

    Report Post » VoteRightDammit  
    • urbanserf
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 1:55pm

      Why did you put that word all in upper-case? Jeez, talk about the pot calling the kettle *****. Maybe you,The Blaze staff, and Sara should go out and shoot monkeys from a porch or something and make a reality show of it. Typical right wing bible/gun clinching NUT

      :P

      Report Post » urbanserf  
  • ThoreauHD
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:58pm

    All of those Countries that are growing- China, India, etc. have the majority of their economy held in black market capital. Black market is the free market without taxes. That’s it.

    We need one here.

    Report Post » ThoreauHD  
    • kepyurheadown
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 9:54am

      There is, open your eyes. The author estimates 10-20% of the USA economy, that’s probably low and certainly growing. It’s always local, always person to person, often barter…‘black’ markets don’t advertise on cable TV! When you trade services or labor with a friend at church-that‘s ’Black Market’…when you’re brother-in-law repairs your roof while you fix his car…that‘s ’black market’. Why do you think so many folks ‘out in the country’ are raising gardens? Barter! Why do you think Farmers’ Markets are the fasting growing sector in the produce business? Why do you think “Local Food” is sweeping the nation? Because we’re all hippy tree huggers? DUD!
      There’s approx 14 million un-employed in the US, many long term. Most are not receiving aid, food stamps, etc. How do they eat? Double DUD!

      Report Post »  
  • ThePostman
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:46pm

    Operating on the black market is very patriotic if your government is corrupt. I can‘t believe more Americans aren’t going off the grid.

    Black market activities are the major kill switch for government – people just simply refuse to play by the corrupt rules.

    Report Post »  
    • 1casawizard
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 5:46am

      It’s always been here, Postman.

      Report Post » 1casawizard  
    • urbanserf
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 1:59pm

      Funny, I was talking to my friend about this very thing a few days ago.

      By the way, who is John Galt?

      Report Post » urbanserf  
  • Glenn in Virginia
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:41pm

    If it weren’t for the “black market,” a lot of people would starve to death – which would be perfectly all right with practically all government employees.

    Report Post »  
  • Bookster
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:07pm

    The more the government tries to regulate and tax people’s labor, the more the people will find ways around the regulations and taxes. Make the taxes and regulations fair and most people will comply. As our national debt gets to the point that the people feel the hurt, the 10% as shown on the map for the US will quickly rise into the orange and red zones. People will only put up with so much before they go underground with a cash or barter payment system. When that happens, the downward spiral of our economy will snowball to complete destruction. It is just a matter of time and the fools in DC just don’t get it……. or simply don’t care.

    Report Post »  
    • Vechorik
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:29pm

      Yep — in Australia the cigarettes equal the US $20 per pack due to carbon tax. Now, there’s a thriving black market cigarette business. Happens with anything — everything, especially with things made illegal = automatic black market (like prohibition and alcohol).

      Report Post »  
    • Dudydoo
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:41pm

      Well at least Obama is living it up, someone finally leaked some pictures from his secret alice in wonderland party http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nc4OCSen-Pk

      Report Post »  
    • A Doctors Labor Is Not My Right
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:45pm

      @Bookster,

      “People will only put up with so much before they go underground with a cash or barter payment system. When that happens, the downward spiral of our economy will snowball to complete destruction.”

      You want a commodity money system – not cash based.

      But regarding the “downard spiral” of our economy: No, no, no – free markets are a GOOD thing; Our economy gets BETTER with more free trade.

      America is SUPPOSED to have a free market – that’s what we were founded on.

      Report Post »  
    • Hobbs57
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 10:08pm

      Yep, I lived in Australia.I went right into the Black Market there. I had to do to the visa conditions. Lots of people did and it seemed partof the norm. They didn’y have an entire army of armed IRS agents hunting down the money either like they do here. I am forced tolive different in the US since I am partof the sytem, I have to play by the sytems rules. There are only minimal ways around it, unless you want to go to jail. They just had an article in the paper here in Pittsburgh talking about how they busted this huge drug ring. It was the tax evasion thatgot um. Gets em every time.

      Report Post » Hobbs57  
    • 1casawizard
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 5:51am

      They don‘t get it AND they don’t care.

      Report Post » 1casawizard  
  • virgie morgan
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:58pm

    I‘m just afraid of what is going to happen to those of us who don’t have the money to prepare for what is coming, even for buying things to use to barter with and who are disabled and have to depend on the government just to exist on the bare necessities of life. We can’t even prepare in the ways Glenn has laid out. Are we just going to die because we will be at the mercy of the government and when this country collapses we will be literally without anything. That is what scares me. And the fact that I have a daughter who is disabled as well and I can’t even pick her up and run to anywhere because she is 30 years old and almost outweighs me. We will be the first to be killed off because we are useless to society. I started getting politically active back in 2007 because I wanted to vote and wanted to find out about the candidates. They say that people vote thier pocket book, but I haven’t done that at all. I have all the beliefs of the liberatarian but have to live as if I were a democrat. I plan to vote for Rick Santorum unless something really horrible happens before then. I know I am voting against my pocket book, but at least I am voting for my values and morals. I have to believe that the rest is up to God.

    Report Post »  
    • macpappy
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:08pm

      Good people will come forward, the natural soul of man will not allow those things to happen. America is a great nation being led by poor leaders; as a people, no other country has the soul of America. Hell, we can’t even let animals be mistreated or starved, but our morals are being attacked and thats the battle we have to fight.

      Report Post » macpappy  
    • Vechorik
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:30pm

      Some of those not prepared will steal and kill. Man is an animal that way. Just like now but hundreds of times worse.

      Report Post »  
    • MCDAVE
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 9:52pm

      I think what we will see;.. Its going to be a collapse of government There will be some hard years;but I believe we will be better off in the future…Good people will work together..

      Report Post »  
    • abbygirl1994
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 10:13pm

      If you are a good person.. there will be people to help you… I tell you my knees are shot, if I had someone to weed my garden I would certainly feed you.. you have your hands I guarantee you if you will work someone will feed you! Blessings!

      Report Post » abbygirl1994  
    • SouthernReverie
      Posted on January 10, 2012 at 12:59pm

      Virgie, you don’t have to have a lot of money to stock up on items for bartering if things should get really ugly. Buy a few extras of toiletries and non-perishable groceries. Soap, shampoo, lotion, lip balm, feminine supplies, razors, etc., will probably be hot items. If you don’t have much room for storage, there is always the space under your bed, behind doors, etc. Good luck!

      Report Post »  
  • Patrick Henry II
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:56pm

    Black markets are a good thing with oppresive regimes. Like ours is going. My Great grand parents used to raise pigs in St JOE during the depression. That was illegall then due to not allowing “food” products to be used for feed. They were supposed to “turn in” all the pigs. Well the solution; My
    G. Grandma started taking garbage in partial exchange for laundry services bypassing FDR (the rat). That made good feed. They got to eat and sell/trade pork and fed my very young father.

    Report Post » Patrick Henry II  
  • macpappy
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:55pm

    If you work for an employer that takes taxes out ever week, you don’t have much choice. However, the tradesman, contractor, labor, craftsman that go out everyday and toil for dollars, are going to be very reluctant to pay in every 3 months, or even once a year when they watch tax money being used to pay rent, unemployeement payments for years, free cell phones, free groceries, extra Obama money, earned income tax credit, etc. etc all to pay Obama or any other politician debts off to unions.
    Some have decided to exercise civil disobediance by not subsidizing such waste. Some people don’t think they owe the Federal Government anything, they don‘t pay in and they won’t take away directly.
    There will be a lot more of this as Obama lets thousands of illegals in every day.
    Once, where I live, all home builders were professional permitted, insurance carrying natural born business leaders. Now, every builder is illegal, working for half what it takes to work legal, and has apparently been given permission to do so.
    Why would anyone want to waste their hard earned money on that system.

    Report Post » macpappy  
  • BetterDays
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:44pm

    I’ve been saving dental floss, just in case it replaces the dollar.

    Report Post »  
  • flatbroke
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:43pm

    system D has always been benificial, look at the goveronment always trying to stick there nose in buying and selling so it can collect taxes on goods, people get sick of it, or moonshiners, its just Govt. wanting there cut. or savings being taxed, its rediculous, and there is nothing wrong with barter. what the Govt dont know wont hurt them.

    Report Post » flatbroke  
  • MCDAVE
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:42pm

    If laws are not based on justice;you get civil disobedience

    Report Post »  
    • lukerw
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:47pm

      Only… Communists think that SUPPLY & DEMAND is Not a FACT in all Economies; Communism cannot Destroy CAPITALISM, it can only Regulate performance and produce Black Markets!

      Report Post » lukerw  
  • CatB
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:41pm

    Note the color of Canada above .. (for those who attended only public schools it is above the USA which is light yellow on the left side of the world map) then consider this …

    Canada Schools U.S. on Growing the Economy

    Washington doesn’t have to look far to find a model for spurring America’s struggling economy: Canada.

    “The Obama administration and its economic czars have flailed about for years, baffled about how to get the U.S. economy growing,” Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) observes.

    “In reality, the president need look no further than our neighbor, Canada, whose solid growth is the product of tax cuts, fiscal discipline, free trade, and energy development. That’s made Canada a roaring puma nation, while its supposedly more powerful southern neighbor stands on the outside looking in.”

    Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper recently slashed corporate taxes again in the final stage of his Economic Action Plan, lowering the federal business tax burden to just 15 percent. The top U.S. corporate tax rate is 35 percent.

    Considering new tax cuts in the provinces, total taxes for businesses in Canada will drop to 25 percent, one of the lowest in the G7 group of developed countries.

    In the United States, “when additional state rates are added, the average tax rate for U.S. corporations rises to 39.2 percent, the second highest in the developed world, only slightly behind Japan’s,” according to the Tax Foundation.

    Harper has

    Report Post »  
    • CatB
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:45pm

      continues ….

      Harper has also made signing free trade treaties a priority. Canada now has 11 free trade pacts in force, and 14 under active negotiation — including pacts with the European Union and India.

      And unlike the U.S., Canada has encouraged domestic energy production by enacting market-friendly regulations. Canada is moving ahead with the Keystone Pipeline, and urging President Obama to move forward on it or risk Canada selling its oil to China.

      For Canada, government policies have brought big benefits. Incomes are rising, unemployment is two percentage points below the U.S. rate, Canadian currency is strengthening, and the country boasts Triple-A or equivalent credit ratings across the board from the five top international ratings agencies.

      “Is it too much to ask Washington to start paying attention to the Canadian success story?” IBD observes.

      “These sound principles work every time they are tried, and they have led to a transformation in Canada. Imagine what they could do in the U.S.”

      Report Post »  
  • Baddoggy
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:41pm

    I will be your daddy when the SHTF….I am totally prepared.

    Report Post » Baddoggy  
  • momrules
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:40pm

    This is where Agenda 21, the EPA, the Food Safety Modernization Act and others come in. The government and the UN want us dependent on them for everything and as they regulate or criminalized more and more people will find a way around them.

    Report Post »  
  • lukerw
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:37pm

    Of course… SUPPLY & DEMAND!

    Report Post » lukerw  
  • possom
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:36pm

    There’s a pretty good one growing here in il, all you need to know is where to look. Your basic barter system is spreading pretty good too. That‘s what happen’s when you tax the people to death.

    Report Post » possom  
  • TXPilot
    Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:30pm

    As the world economy spirals down, money will be increasingly worthless, so I would imagine, we will also see the rise of something we only thought was in our past….a barter economy…..One day soon, if you want/need something, you are probably going to have to trade something to someone else to get it.

    Report Post » TXPilot  
    • ProbIemSoIver
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:45pm

      Money is becoming worthless because it is not based on any standard.
      Bring back an AMERICAN currency based on Gold, Silver and other materials and destroy the FEDERAL RESERVE PRIVATE BANK’s NOTE, that is based on speculation.
      The Federal Reserve seized control of our Treasury due to the Federal Reserve act.
      The FACT that JFK signed E.O. #11110 is PROOF POSITIVE this is TRUE.
      This executive order granted authority BACK to the U.S. Treasury to print it’s OWN money based on silver.
      This would have destroyed the Federal Reserve’s Note.
      JFK was assassinated 5 months later.

      Report Post » ProbIemSoIver  
    • jsb394
      Posted on January 9, 2012 at 8:57pm

      JFK took a crap. Five months later, he was assassinated! CONNECTION?!?!??!

      Report Post »  

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