Don’t Rain on My Parade: Sunny July Fourth Means More Republicans?
- Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:15pm by
Madeleine Morgenstern
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Were your childhood Fourth of Julys chock full of sunshine-drenched parades and patriotic fireworks shows? If so, there‘s a slightly higher chance you’re a Republican, according to a Harvard University study.
Researchers Andreas Madestam and David Yanagizawa-Drott found that celebrating Independence Day can impact people’s political preferences, and much of it comes down to the weather.
Matching rainfall data with the American National Election Studies, the study found that a rain-free Fourth of July makes a person 1.3 percentage points more likely to identify as a Republican. Each rain-free Fourth a child has between the ages of 3 and 18 increases the odds by 0.76 percentage points that they will be a Republican by age 40.
Though the numbers are small, Madestam and Yanagizawa-Drott said they found no such correlation between celebrating the Fourth of July and being a Democrat.
The study extends to voting behavior as well: One rain-free Fourth of July increases the chance of voting for a Republican candidate by age 40 by 1 percentage point, with no effect on voting for a Democrat. Voter turnout later in life is also increased by 0.62 percentage points for every rain-free Independence Day.
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Comments (71)
CONAN THE CONSERVATIVE
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:25pmA relevant question would be, “Whp paid for this inane study?”. Another question could be, “Why was this even studied?” I lloked through the report, and found nothing about who paid, but I will bet bottom dollar (no pun intended) that our tax dollars are hard at work here. As to the why..still not sure but here is a paragaph from the report.
“Motivated by the emphasis placed on children during the festivities, our main objective in
this paper is to analyze the impact of Fourth of July celebrations during childhood on political
preferences and behavior later in life. Estimating the effect of public events, such as Fourth of July,
presents two main challenges, however. First, it is difficult to observe participation in Fourth of
July festivities. For example, it is hard to measure how many parades an individual attended during
childhood, or how many fireworks she watched. Second, even if such measures are correlated
with political preferences, they may not reflect a causal effect of Fourth of July. For instance,
patriotic families might both attend celebrations and have preferences in favor of the Republicans.
A correlation between participation in Fourth of July festivities and partisanship, thus, simply
reflects that some families are more inherently patriotic.”
The next paragraph goes on to explain, due to the 4th being an outdoor event, they used weather to ‘draw’ their corollary.
Report Post »quicker
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:22pmHow to raise a liberal ,Find a large pile of crap plant some ragweed seeds water liberly.How to get rid of them ,weedeater and round up.Don`t try to use commen sence.Don`t work with liberals as they have to have a working brain.
Report Post »tiredofprogressives
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:22pmGuess the Libs are going to call for a cessation of parades now they are politically motivated!!
Report Post »vtxphantom
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:05pmWhat fear must be struck into the hearts of liberals every July 4th. Hordes of mad republicans swarming into the cities and parks for the enjoyment of watching explosives detonate and pollute the air we breath. People of good nature and faith gather to celebrate independence from the monarchy that was the oppresive rule of England and Europe. Woe is me. If Dick Obama has anything to due with it, this will be the last year it will happen.
Report Post »UpstateNYConservative
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:00pmIn a reverse of the ‘findings’ of this so-called study, I say that liberals aren’t patriotic. Then again, I’ve been saying that since I stopped being a liberal 35 years ago.
In any case, Happy Independence Day to my fellow Citizens! I find it an honor and a gift from God to be an American among you.
Report Post »OnToppaThat
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:59pmin bad weather the Liberals come out and blame Bush for the rain
Report Post »abcdefg
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:53pmDid the government pay for this stupid study and waste our money again??
Report Post »liberalsarealiens
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:45pmWHAT EVER it takes to rid this country of these socialist morons like Obama and his cronnies! But I have to say it’s not the fourth that brings out the right! It’s because we are right about the fundamentals of this country. The founders were and are right about the this country. Real logic and truth bring out the consevatives! Read it and weep lefties! You all are fools!
Report Post »Shiroi Raion
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:43pmHarvard professors are supposed to be smart. 1.3% is statistically no difference at all. They are also ignoring cause and effect.
What do they get paid big money for? Simply sitting around telling each other, “We’re so smart! My professor said I’m smart. Wow! So did mine! You agree with me so you must be smart too! We are Borg of Harvard!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a61fPIgJfgs
Report Post »LadyLibertykicksASS
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 2:32pmYeah….but remember ….Our very Own Boy Genius is a Harvard Grad….I think I see a pattern, and smell a big fat Rat……You don’t think the release of this Vital Research was planned for this 4th of July Holiday…(gasp)….do you??? I’ll bet it was a choice of this or “How to grow boggers in a test tube for fun and profit !” Oh well, gonna pack up the car with as many kids and American Flags that will fit, Sing Patriot Song, eat grilled Hot dogs and potato salad, and watch the FIRE WORKS.!!!!
Report Post »” HAPPY BIRTHDAY, AMERICA ” God Bless Us All !!!!!
yubba
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:42pmHappy 4th of July all. This is what liberals do on the 4th
Report Post »1. I bet they pray for rain
2. They walk around in denial like an atheist on Chirstmas Day.
3. They turn thier neighbors into the police for shooting off fireworks.
4. They fly the U.N. flag in their yard.
5. Have a birthday party in july for Lenin.
6. Steal sparklers from children
7. Read the communist manufeso
8. Makes employees work the weekend while going out of town.
9.Take the whole day to blame conservatives for their problems
10. Post krotch on Facebook.
oldasdirt
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:40pmNow,go do a study on the TEA party and you will find 100% support the Nation.
Report Post »They do not support the policies that the Gov. have forced upon us.
susie4dy
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:40pmBecareful where you send your kid for College, you may not like what comes out!
Report Post »kerf
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:39pmThis is totally asinine. This only prove two things, academia is anti Constitutional, anti American and has entirely too much time on their hands. As I was once told by a statistics mentor, “Statistics don’t lie but statisticians do”. Think about this next you read a poll. Someone could “prove” a correlation between moon landings and monkey butts.
Report Post »littleGizmo
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:38pmWhat a bunch of hockapechewy
Report Post »me85
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:36pmIf it starts raining just pull out the Declaration of Independence and start reading it. That‘s what I’m plan on doing tomorrow, because it’s suppose to rain here in Phoenix.
Report Post »USAMama
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:44pmOH! My sister is a Dem and lives in Phoenix, but she is visiting us here in Pittsburgh and it’s sunny!! Does this mean there‘s hope she’ll convert? Or hope for her kids that they’ll grow up to be Repubs?? That would be great!! :)
Report Post »USAMama
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:47pm^ That was supposed to be a reply to ME85 but it didn’t show up there.
Report Post »Islesfordian
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:36pmHow do you even begin to tabulate the data for that without knowing what you are looking for from the start? And if you start out with a targeted seardch onsuch nebulous data doesn’t that highly increase the chance of kewing the results so that you find what you think is there? This sounds more deductive than inductive.
Besides, of what possible use is it? It can’t be proved and its results, even if believed, can’t be used to increase its effects unless we can control the weather.
And how does this explain all the unpatriotic losers in California?
Report Post »thermonator
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:36pmThe purpose of this “study” is what… to further polarize us and perhaps find a democrat alternative for 4th of July celebrations?
Report Post »Maybe a one world celebration?
Rictexas
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:35pmHow long will it take for the leftists to outlaw Independence Day? The first step will be to label it (like all things the left doesn’t like) as a racist.
Report Post »jobaugh1
Posted on July 4, 2011 at 11:00amgoing on this assumption what does the gay parade do, besides it does not make you republican or democrat , it makes you a patriot, with a understanding of what it took to make this country free
Report Post »Mess23
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:35pmRepublican or American, they both mean the same thing – good people who actually care about others. God Bless America today and everyday.
Report Post »NEMATIC
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:33pmSome of us are conservative without ever
having been to a July 4, parade.
I’m so glad I was never indoctrinated into
Report Post »that mental disorder known as “liberalism”.
me85
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:32pmThat is stupid. That doesn’t even make sense. But then again it is Harvard.
Report Post »bonniegal
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:52pmI agree with Meg. Stupid study…does not even make a lick of sense. So, does it follow if you are raised, let’s say, in Seattle that you are inclined to pee your pants through your 20′s? Let’s see some earth shattering data on that, Harvard.
Report Post »kickagrandma
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:32pmOur church this a.m. celebrated AMERICA with PATRIOTIC SONGS….. They were the sermon. Not a dry eye in the entire house.
GOD BLESS AMERICA! In JESUS’ SWEET NAME, we pray, amen!
Report Post »Dustyluv
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:31pmNo…the Republicans lost me to their sunny outlook on entitlements. Stop giving my money away and i will come back.
Report Post »Gabriel Faulk
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 2:21pmDon’t blame all Republicans due to the actions of a few whimps in office. Stay true to yourself and know that together we Reps will win back our Country.
Report Post »Dale
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 3:00pmDustyluv
Report Post »No…the Republicans lost me to their sunny outlook on entitlements. Stop giving my money away and i will come back.
———————
How’s that odumbo [BIG EARS!] thing working out?
michael48
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 3:04pmwhat????
Report Post »sissy71
Posted on July 4, 2011 at 9:32amIt was the great society and the new deal that started the age of entitlements which were started by democratic libs. the repubs want people to work for a living to have self respect, dignity and honor. not sit at home collecting a check for being lazy.
Report Post »Rayblue
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:29pmWell then, let’s make this 4th the best one ever. The loudest, proudest show in the whole world.
Report Post »We deserve it, ladies and gentlemen. We ARE the American Revolution…..
npbreakthrough
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:21pmWatch out!!!
Report Post »banjarmon
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:28pmDose this mean rainy Fourths bring out more LIBS??
Report Post »1stAmendment
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:56pmYes! There formed from water just like Mosquitos from tap water, then they come and sting your, and suck your blood!!
Report Post »scuba13
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:36pmThe liberals will come out and say it is divisive and we should not have them .
Report Post »RightWrite
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 12:37pmLefties have their month long celebrations, why not “Founding Month” with the Fourth of July right in beginning — one whole month of patriotic celebration would be awesome!
Report Post »fastfacts
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:17pmDid you see Glenn Beck’s post-Fox Interview, he reveals something about the future, it is great: http://tiny.cc/wlhgw
Report Post »jmbogstad
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 1:48pmThe federal government has the power to tax only the amount needed to fullfil the obligations enumerated in the constitution and NO MORE!
Report Post »Glenn in Virginia
Posted on July 3, 2011 at 4:38pmSo, Harvard got it right.
Report Post »Once in a while even a blind squirrel finds an acorn.