Environment

Global Experts Claim Warming Could Double Food Prices

CANCUN, Mexico (AP) — Even if we stopped spewing global warming gases today, the world would face a steady rise in food prices this century. But on our current emissions path, climate change becomes the “threat multiplier” that could double grain prices by 2050 and leave millions more children malnourished, global food experts reported Wednesday.

Beyond 2050, when climate scientists project temperatures might rise to as much as 6.4 degrees C (11.5 degrees F) over 20th century levels, the planet grows “gloomy” for agriculture, said senior research fellow Gerald Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The specialists of the authoritative, Washington-based IFPRI said they fed 15 scenarios of population and income growth into supercomputer models of climate and found that “climate change worsens future human well-being, especially among the world’s poorest people.”

The study, issued here at the annual U.N. climate conference, said prices will be driven up by a combination of factors: a slowdown in productivity in some places caused by warming and shifting rain patterns, and an increase in demand because of population and income growth.

Change apparently already is under way. Returning from northern India, agricultural scientist Andrew Jarvis said wheat farmers there were finding warming was maturing their crops too quickly.

“The temperatures are high and they’re getting reduced yields,” Jarvis, of the Colombia-based International Center for Tropical Agriculture, told reporters last month.

For most farmers around the world, trying to adapt to these changes “will pose major challenges,” Wednesday’s IFPRI report said.

Research points to future climate disruption for agricultural zones in much of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and parts of Latin America, including Mexico. In one combination of climate models and scenarios, “the corn belt in the United States could actually see a significant reduction in productivity potential,” Nelson told reporters here.

“Unlike the 20th century, when real agricultural prices declined, the first half of the 21st century is likely to see increases in real agricultural prices,” the IFPRI report said.

Even with “perfect mitigation,” the implausible complete elimination immediately of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, it said real prices for grain would rise because of growing demand and other factors — by 18 percent for rice by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario, to up to 34 percent for corn in the most pessimistic, a scenario envisioning high population growth.

But climate change “acts as a threat multiplier,” making feeding billions more mouths even more challenging, IFPRI said.

With climate change factored in, the increases in real prices by 2050 could range from 31 percent for rice in the most optimistic scenario, to 100 percent for corn in the most pessimistic. And IFPRI has estimated that such skyrocketing prices could boost the global population of undernourished children by 20 percent, by an additional 25 million children.

Up until 2050, endpoint of the experts’ projections, some of the impact could be offset by research development of higher-yielding varieties of corn, wheat and other crops, and by freer, more flexible global trade in food commodities, IFPRI said.

But beyond 2050, if temperatures rise sharply, “the world is a much more gloomy place for agriculture,” Nelson said.

Only deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and billions spent to help farmers adapt to a changing climate can head off serious food shortages, Nelson said. IFPRI, which is supported by world governments, estimates that at least $7 billion additional spending a year is needed for crop research and improved irrigation, roads and other upgrades of agricultural infrastructure.

Needed just as much, it said, are better satellite data on how the world’s farming zones are changing crops, land use and practices, and on-the-ground information from “citizen data-gatherers equipped with GPS-enabled camera phones and other measuring devices.

“Such data would yield huge payoffs in illuminating the state of the world as it unfolds,” it said.

Comments (61)

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  • umpman
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 9:25am

    So according to these dorks, what caused the glaciers to melt and form the great lakes.

    Report Post »  
  • LukeAppling
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 9:20am

    The people have figured out global warming is not about the earth it is about redistribution of wealth a George Soros gameplan to take from Americans and give to whomever he thinks deserves it, perhaps Brazil where Soros has invested a great deal of money and Obama has given Brazil 2 billion of our tax dollars to drill for oil offshore in 10,000 feet of water after BP was said to ill-equiped to drill in 5000 feet of gulf water-something smells here doesn’t it?

    Report Post »  
  • Jeremie Step
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 8:54am

    The drug cartels must have set up drug stands there because these fools must be stoned. So a warmer planet raises food prices, I highly doubt that. They seem to forget about a period known as the Medieval Warming Period that helped lead to an increased food supply and prosperity for Europe. It was so warm then that Erik the Red was able to explore and set up a colony in Greenland.

    Report Post »  
  • FaithGraceAmmo
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 8:36am

    Maybe it’s because of all the aluminum and barium they spray overhead almost every other day. I didn’t believe it, but I watched a long (but informative video) “what in the world are they spraying” on youtube it’s def something to consider. Mansato will be reaping the benefits of farmers if it‘s true because only HIS genetically engineered seed can withstand that much aluminum in the soil to grow and isn’t it just amazing that ***hmmm you have to keep buying seed from him because his vegetable don’t produce seed you can plant for yourself. (The cycle continues)

    Report Post »  
  • TXPilot
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 8:30am

    They have one thing right. Food prices are soon going to double or more, but its not because of the myth of “global warming”, its because the Communists in our government have spent us into oblivion, regulated us to death and are monetizing our debts. But I guess when the feces impacts the rotating blades, any old excuse will do (except the truth), to explain the looming disaster. I hope the first people to starve to death are the idiots who voted these traitors into office.

    Report Post » TXPilot  
  • Stu Pedaso
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 8:28am

    Maybe if we stopped building strip malls and urban sprawl we would have enough room to plant crops. Stop “forcing” farms big and small to not grow crops. Let a farmer do what he does and we will all have food. Hey maybe we stop shipping our food around the world, and others can learn how to grow food for themselves!

    Report Post » Stu Pedaso  
  • Lorist
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 8:20am

    what a bunch of jackarse’s. this brings to mind mr gore spewing his bs.

    Report Post »  
  • Gonzo
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 8:01am

    If the world warms enough, we can grow crops in extreme Northern climates! Fire up the SUV!

    Report Post » Gonzo  
  • Tim313
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 7:01am

    Its funny, the first sentence is a textbook vacuous truth. The could have said “Even if Obama is moving to Uranus this year, the world would face a steady rise in food prices this century.”

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  • lshort250
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 6:42am

    I do believe that Senate Bill S.510 will contribute to higher food prices. Worse than that, it will give the control of our food supply into the hands of the Federal Government. Google “Top Ten Lies About the Food Safety Bill” and you’ll see why this bill has been called the most dangerous legislation in our history. If you agree, contact your Senators and Representatives and demand they stop S.510 from becoming law. Your very lives may depend on it. Go to http://www.healthfreedomusa.org. There is a link to contact your reps.

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  • mcpbob
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 6:24am

    They Never Let a Crisis go to Waste, as they know food prices are going to skyrocket do to this administrations policies they are going to use that to blame it on global warming.

    Report Post » mcpbob  
  • oldsoldier10
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 6:11am

    Yes i completely agree, rising temperatures from unfounded climate data may at sometime or not when Bigfoot is the 52nd president of the USA, might cause global food prices to increase. BUT what is NOW FACTUALLY causing food prices to RISE AT THIS MOMENT is the devaluation of the DOLLAR by the Osama Berry Obama Administration. Go Berry you are helping to fulfill the destructive prophecy you are professing.

    Report Post » oldsoldier10  
  • tbear44
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 5:49am

    So if it gets colder that can’t be very good for Agriculture either?

    Report Post » tbear44  
  • Midwest Belle
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 5:34am

    Let me get this straight. The government passes a huge food safety bill, the government cut off water to our most fertile [Calif] farm land, the government subsidizes Ethanol production (which uses FOOD CORN to make the fuel) and NOW they tell us prices are going to rise?

    “Any Government big enough to provide everything you need will also be big enough to take everything you have”
    (Senator David Crockett,1832)

    “……..government is not the solution to our problem, government IS the problem.”
    Pres Ronald Reagan

    “The Constitution is not an instrument for the Government to restrain the people; it is an instrument for the people to restrain the Government – lest it come to dominate our lives and interests.” ~ Patrick Henry

    Report Post » Midwest Blonde  
  • aeronut44
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 4:24am

    The weather man has been wrong 3 times this week! But they know what the weather will be in 2050? I just wish they could tell me if it is gonna rain Sunday so I’ll know if I should wash my car on Saturday,,,Idiots

    Report Post » aeronut44  
  • 1st a Father
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 4:12am

    Food, fuel, clothing shortages are just the beginning of what these destroyers want to do to this once great nation. Your only defense is to be your best, so God may bless.

    Report Post » 1st a Father  
  • CaptainSpaulding
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 4:02am

    Plants like warm weather and CO2.

    Food prices are going up right now because of inflation.

    Food prices are going to spike in the near future, because our Congress just passed a food regulation bill.

    Personally I blame voter stupidity. Not only did we put these libs in charge, we’re retaining them .:(

    Report Post »  
    • independentvoteril
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 1:35pm

      Not my fault I keep voting against them..

      Report Post » independentvoteril  
    • dont ****** me bro
      Posted on December 6, 2010 at 12:56pm

      Spaulding…people like water but you can die from drinking too much…the argument that plants need CO2 so an excess of CO2 is a good thing is really very stupid.

      Report Post »  
  • Psychosis
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 3:50am

    msm is blaming rising food costs on everything but inflation even now

    how long must we endure idiots spewing propaganda?

    Report Post » Psychosis  
  • upsetagainin2010
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 3:14am

    Agree with chillyinalaska. The new farm bill will cause food prices to soar. Then here in CA we have mile after mile of dead Orchards due to lack of water,( Canals went dry ) and all to save the Smelt, a small minnow primarily used for fish bait.

    Report Post »  
  • squeaker
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 2:20am

    2050 . . . . heck, i’ll be dead long before then

    Report Post »  
  • pamela kay
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 2:18am

    The other day I was in the check out line at the grocery. An older gentleman was checking out in front of me complaining about the food prices. The young girl that was running the register replied. “It’s because of global warming.” The older gentleman just shook his head and his answer just cracked me up.“ Yeah that damn global warming has got my hemorhoids flared up again too” He paid his bill and walked away laughing out loud.

    Report Post » pamela kay  
  • pamela kay
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 2:01am

    Won’t the S510 bill that passed raise the price of food?

    Report Post » pamela kay  
  • ChillyinAlaska
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 1:56am

    More lies and predictions of doom so far in the future as to be useless. Liars, Thieves, and Cheats, not scientists by anyone’s imagination.

    Report Post »  
    • Zorro6821
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 8:44am

      Yes food prices will double but not because of Global Warming. That is the the Convenient Lie. The truth is that the failing economies will create Hyper-inflation and cause food prices to soar. You can already feel it at the Grocery Store. Seems like prices are increasing on a daily basis.

      Report Post »  
  • ChillyinAlaska
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 1:54am

    Just more lies and predictions of doom so far in the future as to be worthless. Liars, thieves, and cheats

    Report Post »  
  • longhorn mama
    Posted on December 3, 2010 at 1:51am

    I am sure wasting all our corn on ethanol has nothing to do with rising food prices. Don’t forget it is also our animal feed.

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    • 1st a Father
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 4:08am

      That’s true. It looks like they’re getting ready to blame legislative food shortages on climate change. Wow, what a racket our government officials have created. I sure hope other people begin to see through their antics soon.

      Report Post » 1st a Father  
    • mzmaj7
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 5:09am

      The Discovery Channel also pretended that Thanksgiving might be ruined by climate change:

      http://sweetness-light.com/archive/global-warming-will-ruin-thanksgiving

      Again, the perpetual culprit is not global warming, but global wealth distribution:

      “Only deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and [$7 billion] spent to help farmers adapt to a changing climate can head off serious food shortages, Nelson said.”

      Never mind ethanol, QE2, and food protection policy.

      Report Post »  
    • WestOfThePecos
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 7:46am

      Fuel cost is the number one reason farmers are suffering in Southeast New Mexico. We have plenty of water and the weather is great.

      Report Post » WestOfThePecos  
    • Stuck_in_CA
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 7:51am

      Burning our food supply is insane.
      If temps were to rise, wouldn’t more areas on the globe be able to grow crops? Just asking.

      Report Post » Stuck_in_CA  
    • oldoldtimer
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 9:22am

      People just do not get it! Every thing the progressives does is to bring us under tighter and tighter control. They will have us a 3rd world country in 10 years. STOP, LOOK, LISTEN. They are telling us what they intend to do. They are waging a psych war against us. If they keep pushing warming long enough people will start thinking , maybe they are right. Reality check! Where is the most vegetation in the world? In the hottest jungles in the world. What do plants need to grow? CO2. What is the waste of plants? Oxygen. What does man need to survive? Oxygen. Warmer climate the bigger and more crops can be grown. THEY LIE!

      Report Post »  
    • abc
      Posted on December 3, 2010 at 10:54am

      That the farm lobby–supported by Republicans even more than Democrats–has caused the energy complex to compete with the food complex for key inputs like corn, thereby causing food prices to rise, has NOTHING to do with global warming’s impact. This is like saying I should be able to speed on the road recklessly since GM makes bad cars. Dumb logic.

      More importantly, the prices of key food products in Israel have increased by 50-150% in the last two months due to warm weather and drought. Such climate impacts will be more frequent due to global warming. So you should not doubt the report. It is already coming to pass. Just ask Israeli’s that are paying 50% more for milk and more than 100% more for tomatoes. If you followed a real press, then you would know these things…

      Report Post »  
    • WVdad
      Posted on December 4, 2010 at 11:49pm

      ABC
      Dumb logic, lmao, at your logic, you really crack me up

      Report Post »  
    • silentwatcher
      Posted on December 5, 2010 at 3:23am

      not global warming doing it,,,,,it’s call power and greed.

      Report Post »  
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