Government

GOP Redraws Congressional Maps to Shore Up House Majority

GOP Redraws Congressional Maps to Shore Up House MajorityWASHINGTON (The Blaze/AP) — The odds of getting re-elected have gotten better for Rep. Renee Ellmers and other Republican freshmen in the House – thanks to GOP calculations in redrawing congressional maps.

The 47-year-old nurse who ousted seven-term Democrat Bob Etheridge by fewer than 1,500 votes last November will be running next year in a newly drawn North Carolina district that’s less swing and more Republican. The outlook is brighter too for Texas Rep. Blake Farenthold, a conservative talk radio host who edged 14-term Democrat Solomon Ortiz by just 797 votes. Farenthold will find more Republicans in a Corpus Christi-based district that now stretches north.

Republicans romped last November, gaining 63 House seats to secure the majority, winning 11 governorships, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, and seizing control of the most state legislative seats they’ve held since 1928. The GOP is capitalizing on its across-the-board control in 26 states – governorship plus legislature – in the census-based drawing of a new political map that will be a decisive factor in the 2012 elections and beyond.

“Republican freshmen are finding the ground harden beneath them as their current swing districts become less competitive for Democrats,” said Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee. “Even seemingly small changes in district political leanings can mean big returns at the ballot box.”

Nearly half of the states have finished redrawing House lines based on population changes, although lawsuits and Justice Department reviews loom. The immediate post-election claims that the GOP could add 15 to 30 seats in the U.S. House through redistricting have proven unfounded, in large part because Republicans captured so many seats last November. Instead, the GOP has used the redistricting process to shore up its most vulnerable lawmakers, people like Ellmers and Farenthold.

“Redistricting starts with Republicans at a peak,” said Tim Storey, an elections analyst with the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures. “They hold a solid majority of seats in the House. It’s hard to gain much more.”

In the last election, Republicans took control of the governorships and legislatures in Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana. That grip on power is reflected in the latest congressional lines. The GOP improved the political landscape for freshman Rep. Todd Young in southern Indiana, for example. And two of Michigan’s newest members, Dan Benishek in the north and Tim Walberg in the south, got a boost, as did Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, who’s also running for president. Wisconsin’s Paul Ryan and Sean Duffy also are looking at districts with more Republicans.

Republican optimism aside, Democrats are making the most of their opportunities. They’ve drawn favorable district lines in Illinois. And they’re hoping several political realities will help the party pick up the 25 net seats needed to recapture the House. Next year is a presidential election year, with the promise of higher turnout and an electorate with a greater number of Democratic-leaning younger voters and Hispanics. President Barack Obama will head the party ticket against a still to-be-determined Republican, who could either win over independents or send them running toward the Democrats.

Candidate recruitment and financial resources also will be factors in 2012.

In Illinois, Democrats ensured that the new political map makes life extremely tough for half of the state’s 11 House Republicans. The Democrats focused on competitive districts close to Democratic strongholds, carving up huge swaths of GOP territory and creating some difficult matchups for GOP incumbents. Freshman Republican Robert Dold is suddenly in a race against seven-term Democrat Jan Schakowky. Freshman Republican Adam Kinzinger’s hometown of Manteno is now in nine-term Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr.’s district. Two Republican freshmen, Joe Walsh and Randy Hultgren, are now in the same district.

Rep. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, calls Illinois the party’s “center of gravity” in the campaign to take back the House.

“Cook County still rules,” observed Thom Serafin, a political communications analyst in Illinois. “Everything around them may be getting redder.”

In California, Democrats have the potential to gain 3 or 4 seats based on the map drawn by the 14-member Citizens Redistricting Commission, an independent panel that paid more attention to geography and ethnicity than incumbency. Longtime Republicans Gary Miller and Ed Royce face uncertain futures as does David Dreier.

The Democratic outlook is the mirror opposite in North Carolina, where Republicans took control of the legislature last year – the first time since 1870. The new GOP-driven map makes the districts of conservative to moderate Democrats Heath Shuler, Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller more Republican. Miller loses the urban sections of Wake County while Shuler loses a good chunk of the city of Asheville.

And even though Democrat Bev Perdue is governor, she has little say in redistricting. The political parties in North Carolina agreed years ago that the governor couldn’t approve or reject the map.

Not surprisingly, Robin Hayes, chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, was gleeful as he looked ahead to 2012 and the prospect of the GOP reversing the Democrats’ 7-6 edge in House seats. Not only does the party have the new map, but Hayes argued that the economic policies of Obama and Perdue’s support for the president will help boost the GOP.

“It’s a buffet line of reasons to vote Republican,” Hayes said.

Miller and Kissell, however, bucked the Republican wave in 2010, a remarkable feat considering how many conservative Southern Democrats were knocked out. Favorable factors for the Democrats include Obama’s plentiful resources, aimed at again winning a state he captured in 2008, and the choice of Charlotte for the Democratic National Convention next summer.

Paul Shumaker, a Republican political consultant, said nothing’s certain: “North Carolina is a swing state.”

Several states still must finish their maps – Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania and Florida, the latter expected to be completed next year.

Florida voters last year backed an initiative that requires redistricting that favors geography and compact districts over incumbency, which could improve Democrats’ chances. Florida Republicans currently hold 19 House seats, Democrats six.

Comments (36)

  • texanpatriot
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:14pm

    May I add that it is also time to junk the tax code and put consumption or fixed income tax on all Americans? The code is indecipherable and completely in the control of the IRS.
    We must have new, fair code.

    Report Post » texanpatriot  
  • Bill Wallace
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:08pm

    I hate the practice.

    Don’t like it when dumbs did it, don’t like it being done by repubs. It is crooked and deceitful.

    California redrew districts to make it even less likely a republican will be elected. Everyone should run as a democrat even if they aren’t. Only way to stop the madness.

    Report Post »  
    • texanpatriot
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:16pm

      The most important aspect of any election is the basic belief and courage of the person. Parties are no longer the major consideration in the decision to support/vote – in my humble opinion.

      Report Post » texanpatriot  
  • texanpatriot
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:03pm

    It used to be that elections were a passing interest to Americans. That is until our current President was elected. The country is now on its deathbed and every election is critical to the survival of the Republic.
    If We the People cannot turn to ship of state towards fiscal responsibility (read that as significant reduction in spending and a serious reform of ‘Entitlements’) then we will join France and the UK as mere observers of the decline of the West.
    Please elect fiscal conservatives every election in the future. No less than the survival of the US is on the line.

    Report Post » texanpatriot  
  • JRook
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 10:59am

    Ah yes democracy at its best.

    Report Post »  
  • mjs6029
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 10:44am

    Isn’t it really a matter of trying to get conservatives elected? You know, people with a sense of fiscal and personal responsibility. I don’t really think we have a chance though. The Democrats pander to every minority group known to man and they equate to a majority now days. If you take all the blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Jews, Muslims, native Americans etc. etc., they pretty much out number the rest of us and the Democrats know that. All they have to do is promise enough hand outs and they’ll come out to vote like a slum infested with cockroaches. That‘s what happened last time and it’s a winning strategy so they’ll do it again. Only through the grace of God will we be able to restore this once great nation but I fear for the worst.

    Report Post »  
  • bill oswald
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 10:08am

    I see where Califirnia will re-district and pick up 3 to 4 democratic seats. I think california deserves democrats. California is a drag on the US and they should become the first United Nations Country and stand on their own.

    Report Post »  
  • LukeAppling
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 9:56am

    Perhaps Illinois’ Guttierrez can be drawn away from his gerrymandered district which was so convoluted to insure his election every time. Guttierrez is so much in favor of illegals that vote for him that he has sold out his country to them, along with Obama.

    Report Post »  
  • NC
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 8:40am

    WTF, a pop up ad just started with sound!

    The Blaze is becoming The Toilet!

    Report Post » NC  
  • NC
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 8:36am

    Psst -> Red is right, blue is left.

    I see no conspiracy theory in Russert’s map.

    NC (living in a purple state)

    Report Post » NC  
  • htnkd5
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 8:30am

    This is why I hate party affiliations– When it helps the republicans– the Dems come out accusing something.–When it helps the Democrats– the republicans usually sit and shut up.. Why can’t we vote according to how the person is– no parties– but have people run on records and beliefs– If you are elected you are suppose to represent all the people- not just one party– this is getting out of hand everytime someone does not get their way– court–and holdup until after the election on who will benefit. Stand up and get this in the news- Obama you wanted new lines drawn so the election could sway more your side– and when one doesn’t — lets get the DOJ to block it!!– enough is enough– everything is so crooked– we need to have our own uprise and know these career politician out– and put new people and new ideas in– and start working together–

    Report Post »  
  • Grace1798
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 8:05am

    Democrats are not “thinkers” because they talk too much to take time to think.

    Report Post » Grace1798  
  • Grace1798
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 8:04am

    Our plan is to remove every RINO and every Democrat that we can with every vote and every election from office.

    Report Post » Grace1798  
  • DaddyDave
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 8:00am

    Guys, The Obama DOJ will try and block the North Carolina and other states held hostage by the Democrat imposed segregationist “Voters Right Act of 1965”. They will evlauate their own DOJ created plans and any other plans proposed (aka democrat plans), and decide if their plans are better. Here is an excerpt from the DOJs own “guidelines” they sent out Jan 2011:

    “In considering whether less-retrogressive alternative plans are available, the Department of Justice looks to plans that were actually considered or drawn by the submitting jurisdiction, as well as alternative plans presented or made known to the submitting jurisdiction by interested citizens or others. In addition, the Department may develop illustrative alternative plans for use in its analysis, taking into consideration the jurisdiction’s redistricting principles. If it is determined that a reasonable alternative plan exists that is non-retrogressive or less retrogressive than the submitted plan, the Attorney General will interpose an objection.”

    Report Post » DaddyDave  
  • Shrugged
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 7:41am

    Will there be a map at some point so we can see the changes? I only hope that Betty Sutton’s district – from Ohio – is re-drawn. The Dems have it looking like swiss cheese so she can get elected. Time for her to GO.

    Report Post »  
  • tifosa
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 6:44am

    Hypocrisy…hate redistricting until it’s to your benefit. Typical.

    Report Post » tifosa  
  • DaBig2na
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 6:07am

    I live In Renee Ellmers district I am so glad she was elected. Where I live within 1/2 mile there are lines drawn for 3 in congress. My neighbor may be in Butterfield’s (dem) district, and I in Ellmers. The Dems had it so screwed up. BTW Butterfield will be UNEMPLOYED he completely LOST his district, I understand.
    WOO HOO!!!!!
    Another (dem) One Bites the Dust!

    Report Post » DaBig2na  
  • Marnin
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 2:07am

    while not all republicans are great, and some are rinos, i would rather have a republican sean than a democratic seat in congress…

    Report Post »  
  • abbygirl1994
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 1:06am

    We don’t want to get rid of the new blood, its the old corrupt ones who have to go!! If by voting time we see any of the new blood losing their souls we will vote them out to!!

    Report Post » abbygirl1994  
  • the hawk
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:55am

    Now if we can do away with the popular vote for the senators we’ll be heading in the right direction!
    And Tern Limets ! ! ! !……………………………………………………………………..there is Hope For Change !

    Report Post »  
    • gdbhusker
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 1:37am

      we have a constitutional “built in” term limit…..it’s called the ballot box!! we conservatives need to assure this by getting the message out about our candidates…..

      Report Post » gdbhusker  
    • the hawk
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 3:02am

      I agree but say Pelosi could only do 8 yrs then San fransicko would have to pick anouther loon !

      Report Post »  
    • M 4 Colt
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 4:13am

      The Hawk, you sir are so right we NEED TERM LIMITS, and now, the bad part is the congress is the ones that have to vote for term limits and i don’t see them EVER cutting off their own gravy train. My plan is to limit them to two terms each in a life time just like the president gets and NO MORE.

      Report Post »  
  • supertas
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:43am

    So let’s change the narrative on these fools. Red now means red-blooded AMERICAN.

    Report Post »  
  • stumblemouth
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:43am

    The only state that draws districts strictly by population is Iowa. All the other states draw monstrosities of Surrealist art that reflect advantages to the party in power. The freshmen tea partiers should be fighting this gerrymandering weaselry.

    Report Post » stumblemouth  
  • psst
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:47pm

    It is high time we take the colours of States back.
    Once upon a time, many moons ago, leftist states used to be red and con states were blue.
    Tim Russert D.who was council to Mario Coumo D at one time, changed all that. At least he was credited for the change in 2000. Really the colour red signifies leftists/marxists. Why do you think the RussComs and the ChiComs were called Reds?
    ‘European usage, where blue often meant right-leaning and red left-leaning. Democrats may have wanted to appropriate the positive connotations of blue (as in true-blue) at a time when red was becoming associated with revolutionaries and anarchists.”

    Just like homosexuals hates the term homosexuals, (they don’t want to be called what They Are)they stole the word gay. Democrats hates to be associated w/ the colour red. Which IS associated w/ leftists,communists,socialists.. Dems hates to be labeled w/ the colour that They Are.
    Russert helped them get away from their true colour by posting the republican won states in red and the dem won states in blue.on election night 2000
    Just like the word gay is now substituted for homosexuals, the colour blue is now thought of as signifying the marxist dem controlled states.We now call Jungles Rain Forest. No one lies anymore.They misspoke or misrepresents. Everytine Soetero opens his mouth, he mis-speaks.
    Up is now down..Down is up Right is wrong. Wrong is Right That the US today.

    Report Post »  
    • Jus-sayin
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:22am

      I knew it changed, just couldn’t remember when. I hate that the press refers to Conservatives as Red. Unless they are looking at the dedication to change in my eyes.

      Revolution 2012 – Your Vote Counts, tell your friends

      Report Post »  
    • the hawk
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 12:49am

      Yeah the whole darn thing is downside up !

      Report Post »  
    • karenhasfreedom
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 7:05am

      Actually I like the red, it is bold, it is bright, it is noticeable. So I am OK with red states being the color of the patriotic conservative folks.

      Report Post » karenhasfreedom  
  • MODEL82A1
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:12pm

    Gerrymandering is WRONG!!!!!!!! Except when Democrats do it.

    Report Post » MODEL82A1  
    • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:42pm

      Interesting is it not how the left always (exclusivly in their own minds) does what is the right thing to do; and anyone else — especially the Republicans, Tea Party, and ordinary citizens, are always wrong or are “racist, terrorists, etc”.

      Report Post » Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
  • tower7femacamp
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:08pm

    except for Ron Paul’s district !!!!

    Report Post » tower7femacamp  
    • MODEL82A1
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:14pm

      Ron Paul is not seeking re-election.

      Report Post » MODEL82A1  
    • MODEL82A1
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:20pm

      Isn’t there some super-secret NWO-Trilateral-Bilderger-Council-On-Skull-And-Illuminati meeting on Martha’s Vineyard happening this week that you should be stalking?

      Report Post » MODEL82A1  
    • Bill Brasky
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 4:12am

      he’s not seeking reelection partly because establisment Dems and Repubs colluded with each other to draw up a district that would be next to impossible to win. That’s what the good Dr. gets for not towing the line, I suppose.

      Report Post » Bill Brasky  
    • tower7femacamp
      Posted on August 24, 2011 at 9:21pm

      Thanks Bill, some of these Morons just attack with tin foil
      but really show how much they don’t know ….

      Report Post » tower7femacamp  

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