WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s health care tab will go up — not down — as a result of President Barack Obama’s sweeping overhaul. That’s the conclusion of a government forecast released Thursday, which also finds the increase will be modest.
The average annual growth in health care spending will be just two-tenths of 1 percentage point higher through 2019 with Obama’s remake, said the analysis. And that’s with more than 32 million uninsured gaining coverage because of the new law.
“The impact is moderate,” said economist Andrea Sisko of Medicare’s Office of the Actuary, the nonpartisan unit that prepared the report.
Factoring in the law, Americans will spend an average of $13,652 per person a year on health care in 2019, according to the actuary’s office. Without the law, the corresponding number would be $13,387.
That works out to $265 more with the overhaul. Currently, Americans spend $8,389 a year per person on health care.
The new bottom line is guaranteed to provide ammunition for both sides of a health care debate that refuses to move offstage. Republicans are vowing repeal if they win control of Congress this fall, although they are unlikely to have enough votes to override an Obama veto.
For critics, the numbers show that the law didn’t solve the cost problem, although Obama repeatedly said he wanted to bend the spending curve down.
The analysis found that health care spending will grow to nearly 20 percent of the economy in 2019. That siphons off resources that could be invested in education, research, transportation or other areas. Medical costs now account for about 17 percent of the economy, and some experts think that’s already too much.
For advocates of the law, the numbers show that expanding coverage to 93 percent of eligible Americans comes at a relative bargain price. Moreover, if Congress sticks to cost controls in the legislation, there’s potential beyond 2020 to rein in the growth of health care spending. The new projections show a slowdown starting around 2018.
“By the end of the projection period, we estimate (costs) will grow more slowly,” said John Poisal, who worked on the forecast.
It’s a long way off, but under the health care law, the big coverage push doesn’t start until 2014.
That’s when the government will offer tax credits to help middle-class people buy private coverage through new insurance markets in their states. At the same time, Medicaid will be opened up to millions more low-income people. Insurers will have to accept all applicants, regardless of health problems. And most Americans will be required to carry coverage or face a fine from the IRS.
The study also showed:
—Government is becoming the dominant player in health care even without Obama’s law. Federal, state and local government spending will overtake private sources in 2011, three years before the main provisions of the overhaul take effect. The biggest programs are Medicare and Medicaid.
—Even after the health care overhaul is fully phased in, three out of five people under age 65 will still have private coverage, with most continuing to get benefits through their employer.
—Two federal-state programs, Medicaid and children’s health insurance, will grow dramatically under the overhaul. Enrollment will jump 34 percent between 2013 and 2014, to more than 85 million people. States will be bigger players in health care — and face new pressures over the long run.
The White House released its own analysis of the report, calculating that total health care spending per insured person would be more than $1,000 lower under the law.
A White House blog post from health reform director Nancy-Ann DeParle said that by 2019 overall health care spending per insured person would average $14,720 under the law, compared with $16,120 if Congress and the president had not acted, or $1,400 less.
The White House average was not part of the Medicare analysts’ projections, and there was no official response from the actuaries to the White House estimate.DeParle acknowledged that spending would rise in the short run as uninsured people gain coverage, but noted the rate of growth would slow in the second half of the decade. “A close look at this report’s data suggest that for average Americans, the Affordable Care Act will live up to its promise,” she said.
The Medicare analysts’ report is available online from the journal Health Affairs.
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Online:
www.healthaffairs.org
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Comments (113)
Mike Ivey 2010
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:21pmthe average person spends $8500 a year ? where the heck do these people live I have a wife and children and we don’t spend anything close to that including health insurance.
Report Post »StrawberryPop
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 4:52pmThe land of made up numbers and statistics.
Report Post »Duh.
notimeforthis
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 11:55pmYeh well in the land of Post Cobra and Post unemployment checks. An unemployed friend pays $1,400 a month for a family plan. 12 x $1400.00 = $16,800. How long will this last before their 401K is depleted, and penelties are attached to withdrawls to safe what they own. This family is one that isn’t even in the 9.6% counted.
Report Post »drattastic
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:19pmWho Knew ? gosh ,but our leaders promised us everything would be FANTASTIC when we (including them)found out what was in the bill after they passed it ,a feather could knock me over .I’m not worried though cause our dear leader ( a thrill just ran up my leg)will soon wave his arms and as sea levels begin to lower ,all health care will be free for everyone (hope I get the British dental ,don’t you)with no rationing ,not to mention a Koran and gay porn for everyone .
Report Post »missmarie
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:16pmI am not prepared to start debating the cost – I still haven’t agreed the government has the right to implement this plan. I won’t be sidetracked into the details – I will continue to advocate for a repeal of this unconstitutional takeover of my health care. I will be electing only individuals who share that view from this point forward!
Report Post »Maybe the GEESE Know More than the BEES Know
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:37pmi like your thinking missmarie!!
Report Post »krjones
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 4:52pmyou are so right!
Report Post »StrawberryPop
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 5:00pmI am unable to vote legally until the middle of next year, but I agree whole heartedly.
Report Post »I’ll continue to help the campaigns for those who have ideals that coincide with my own, and when I am able to, I will vote for those very same people. I hope that this way, the government will be full of people who do things by the constitution, not by some obscure standard of social justice.
missmarie
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 5:18pmStrawberryPop, God Bless You! We need more people getting involved and aware of the political spectrum before they start voting! So nice to hear you are taking your time to educate yourself about the individual candidates! Hope for the future!
Report Post »StrawberryPop
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 6:15pmThe only sad thing about it is that sometimes I feel like I’m the only one in my age group that actually cares. It’s not enough to discourage me, but it does infuriate me to see the people that I’m so often lumped together with walking around in their Obama T-shirts, singing the mans praises when they can‘t even say a single thing he’s done since being elected. Hell, they don’t even know who anyone in any other government office is. All they care about is “oh, we have a black president, and I heard something about health care.”
In my district, I was involved with getting petitions for a Conservative Republican on the ballot for Congress. Of the kids I talked to (one or two years older than myself), most were flabbergasted by my support of the constitution, and they wouldn’t help to get him his fair chance at running in the primaries. I suppose they assumed, based on my alternative fashion sense and age, I should have been campaigning for a liberal. Those who recognized my pentacle as a symbol of my religion were even more shocked.
I don’t think I can get people to understand that, just because they want to dress a certain way or whatnot, doesn’t mean they have to think a certain way. Just because we’re young, it doesn‘t mean that we can’t educate ourselves to the things going on around us. We don‘t have to go along with something and think it’s right because our friends or parents say it is. We were born with brains so that we can think for ourselves, it doesn’t start being important once you hit your thirties. It’s important now, and will continue to be as important as we grow older. The people we elect in our early years of voting, and the people we support before then, set up what’s going to happen in our future.
The effects of bad politicians in office now is awful, but as the debt grows, and as our freedoms get taken away it will only get worse. It‘s setting the stage for what we’re going to have to pay for when our parents and grandparents have left this world. If everything falls apart, it’s our generation and those after us who will either have to live with it or put the pieces back together. However, if they’re all to incompetent now to do a little bit of research, then what are we to expect when things need to be fixed. To solve a problem requires some sort of cognitive function, but if they don’t start thinking now, there won’t be any of that for the future.
I sometimes get to the point to where I want to rip my own hair out. It seems that this is the only subject I can’t seem to communicate with people my age about. I think they just block out anything I say in this regard. (But they hang on my every word when I’m giving them relationship advice)
Report Post »greg755
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 8:37pmStrawberryPOP I have 2 words for you
Hillsdale College….
its an excellent conservative school that doesn’t rely on government funding…
Report Post »StrawberryPop
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 9:13pmIt was an option I’d been considering for quite some time, actually.
Report Post »Newtie and the Beauty
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:07pmHas anyone else noticed an increase in your other insurance rates? The money to “keep up” with 0bamacare is bleeding over into other insurance. My car insurance just went up 20% and I have a clean driving record, no accidents, live in the same house and the same car. Can‘t wait until I get my homeowner’s policy…
Report Post »T4Texas
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 5:49pmJust got my home owners renewal notice this week! 33% increase from last year. My house is newly constructed, less than two years old, has all available alarm systems and 0 claims. But at least it’s not a TAX increase, right?
Report Post »Rich HOffman
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:07pmWhat a terrible waste of money. More things that have to be undone at some point.
Report Post »beekeeper
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:47pmThese estimates all include rationing care, cutting Medicare reimbursements to providers, and assume all will be willing/able to PAY for their Obamacare – I expect the Dems will undermine their own program an push out the cuts and rationing and to forgive/subsidsepayments for coverage.
BTW, $8,389/per insured? That puts a family of four at almost $33K/yr for coverage… That’s nuts! There must be something wrong with either the numbers or my math…
Report Post »DSTSS2010
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:46pmFigure lie and liars figure. I’m sure the real numbers will be much worse!
Report Post »JJMinor
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:43pmOh, this can’t be true! This is right-wing propaganda! We all know that Comrade Obama wouldn’t lie to us. He‘s our Big Brother and only wants what’s best for us. The United States can do so much better than this.
Report Post »SGTTAZ67
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:43pmWOW,
Report Post »The first posting here that Danglingbags didn’t chime in on. Maybe because it paints his heroes policy in a negative light ?
2012freedom
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 6:12pmMaybe he hasn’t seen the story yet. After all, if he is hanging out with the HuffPo crowd he won‘t know anything about this because HuffPo won’t print the truth. They don’t want to tarnish their reputation of being a complete Liberal propaganda machine. Nothing gets printed that portrays Obama is a negative light.
Report Post »Time2Revolt
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:39pmAnother government “study” to prove what any half-brained American already knew… Our founding fathers would be so proud!
Report Post »bhelmet
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:47pmGood point, how much are all these studies costing us and where is the Constitutional authority for all these useless studies?
Report Post »GraceSullivan
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:34pmDoctors are urging everyone to oppose Obamacare. With obamacare, they the government can decide what treatment is best for the patient, not the doctor and patient. Stand up Americans, sign the petitions, call your reps. This needs to be repealed. Vote in someone who will help to get this repealed. I am a democrat who is voting for a republican in November, he voted against it.
Report Post »LesterWillox
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:48pmYou of course realize that at the moment, the insurance company decides what’s best for the patient? Curiously, the insurance company often decides that the best thing for the patient is also what’s cheapest for itself. Fancy that.
Report Post »Corinthian in TN
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:00pmBut at current, you can CHANGE insurance companies, so if they don’t provide the coverage you want/need, you can go somewhere else.
Report Post »notimeforthis
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 11:42pmTry going to another health insurer in the next 5 years. Ohhh I think we will be left with a necessary SINGLE PAYER SYSTEM! Now who didn’t see that coming?!
Report Post »notimeforthis
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:33pmWell now what do we do in November, after Nancy has finally read the bill?
Report Post »Vote all encumbents out of Washington, and all Democrats who voted for it.
It really is the only answer!
JJ Coolay
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:52pmWhy would she read it? They already passed it and she didn’t read it then!! It’s how many hundreds of pages????
They couldn’t even read a 17 page immigration bill in Arizona!!!
Report Post »MammaMia19
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:32pmI can hear the spin already…..”Well, the increase would be much higher if we didn’t pass the bill.” Yeah right!
Report Post »Checkyoselffool
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:28pmTea in the harbor for a 1 cent tax. I‘m not saying I’m just saying.
Report Post »JJ Coolay
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:50pmWe have not yet begun to fight!
Report Post »bhelmet
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:27pmIt WILL be higher, but MUCH higher than they predict – unless of course they are factoring in all the rationing.
Report Post »Skwerl
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:38pmThou hath spake with a truthy tongue.
Report Post »ImJustAGuy
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 8:30pmIn 1967, Fed Gov’t estimated the cost of Medicare in 1990 would be $12 billion. In 1990 the ACTUAL cost was $110 billion! (http://blog.heritage.org/?p=12370)
Report Post »Aunt Nee Nee
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:25pm(Dang it! Didn‘t know I couldn’t use spaces in my user name. Oh well. . .) The ‘health care’ law is far from a failure – it is indeed a rousing success! It‘s doing EXACTLY what D’Oh-Bama and his fellow tyrants want it to do: force everyone, eventually, into a goverment-run, single-payer system.
Report Post »dlmcilvain
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:23pmUh, would this be considered “Shock and Awe”?
Report Post »PCMAN
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:34pmmore like “shocked and awful!”
Report Post »Texas Patriot
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:21pmOf course it will rise and that 2/10 th of one percent is a joke,
Most healthe car has already risen over 20% in just one year, and that is only the beginning.
Report Post »crnman38
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 5:10pmyep…mine is increasing 21%…21%!! next month… and since i am fortunate enough to get some of my portion paid by my employer,not my family plan, just mine, I get to start paying taxes on that too. This is ridiculous and going to drain us to no end
Report Post »aprilp
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:18pmCan the gov’t do anything right? Well, besides the military?
Report Post »PCMAN
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:17pm“Surprize! Surprize! I can see it in your eyes.” – Gomer Pyle.
Report Post »Can anybody name any government program that came in at or under budget? And the whole thing isn’t even implemented yet! Repeal!!
carol m
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 4:23pmAnd has any government project ever actually worked ?
Report Post »Juan Gault
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:14pmWas there ever any doubt, that over all cost would rise, and over all care would be less than current medical care.
Again, look at any other free countries,and their national health care,why expect a different result?
Report Post »Freelancer
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:33pmIs that not the definition of insanity? Try the same thing over and over again and expect to get a different turnout…. How many times has socialism been tried and failed? EVERY time! Even the nations currently operating as quasi socialistic economic models have started to revert back toward a more conservative stance and cutting the handouts. The problem with the U.S. is that we are behind the discovery curve about Marxism/socialism and Obama thinks he and his band of merry social rapists will get it right where everyone else got it wrong. Evil never triumphs and socialism is the epitome of evil.
Report Post »greg755
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:12pmI wonder how much we spent on the “study” and did they add the cost of this study into their study????
Report Post »dressseller
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:11pm“The nation’s health care tab will go up — not down” ….and that’s EXACTLY what we tried to tell the supporters of this idiot bill all along. ….And further.. I think those voting this bill in KNEW IT.. ..they didn’t/don‘t care because it’s the socialist utopia they are working for. None of us matter to them.
Report Post »Why2Late
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:43pmYou got it. Now who gets stuck with the cost and a bad system?
Report Post »JJ Coolay
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:48pm2/10 of 1%????? When does THAT number get adjusted because you know it’s not real?
Report Post »bookofwisdom
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:00pmActually, the ones who voted for it are not required to have it..(Senate & Representatives)…that’s why John Q. Public is now stuck with it.
Report Post »Ellie
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:05pmHave these numbers been “adjusted for hyper-inflation” that will hit long before 2019?
Report Post »Joseph
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:08pmI’m going to start my own church and make it a sin to have health insurance.
Report Post »Zcat
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:58pmI’ll become a member!
Report Post »Maybe the GEESE Know More than the BEES Know
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:35pmwhat time are services???
Report Post »Skwerl
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:42pmWill there be pie & bacon at this church? For they shall soon be banned by the most Holy iBama.
Report Post »thunder4570
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 9:29pmI am going to run for office, they have sweeeet health care!! and it is affordable
Report Post »Freelancer
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 2:02pmLet the rationing begin….
Report Post »IntheKnowOG
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:01pmSo he didn’t lie then. It’s deficit neutral so, as the deficit increases so do healthcare costs….LOL!
Report Post »The Patriot
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 3:42pmOooooh…this must be why no Republicans signed this atrocity. Because they said this was going to happen. Not a big surprise to those of us on the Right. Just have to make sure the Republicans defund this piece of garbage as soon as they take back the Congress.
Report Post »ME
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 5:18pmThis is news anyone with a brain know that rationing was coming before it passed.
Bring on the Death Panels
Report Post »BeHeardAmerica
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 7:28pmWow didn”t see this coming… Ah..
Report Post »