Here’s How a Mathematician Used Physics to Better His Odds at Roulette — and How You Could Too
- Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:22pm by
Liz Klimas
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(Photo: Shutterstock)
Doyne Farmer has known since the 1970s how to better his odds at the roulette table in casinos. While you may think roulette is more so a game of chance with little rhyme or reason to figure out where the little ball will land on the spinning on the wheel, Farmer devised a method for improving his guess using physics.
Farmer tells New Scientist he kept silent until now because he “did not want to communicate any information that might prevent anyone from taking the casinos’ money,“ but now he sees ”no good reason for staying silent any longer.”
New Scientist reports Farmer, who works at the University of Oxford, has drafted a paper in response to a similar technique published in the journal Chaos by Michael Small from the University of Western Australia and Michael Tse from Hong Kong Polytechnic University:
[Small and Tse] demonstrate that with a few measurements and a small computer or smartphone, you can indeed tip the odds in your favour. The trick is to record when the ball and a set part of the rotating wheel both pass a chosen point.
Their model divides the game into two parts: what happens while the ball rolls around the rim of the wheel and then falls, which is highly predictable, and what happens after the ball starts bouncing around, which is chaotic and hard to predict. Because the first part is predictable, Small and Tse were able to calculate roughly where the ball would begin its erratic bouncing and therefore in which part of the wheel it was more likely to land.
New Scientist notes that Farmer began testing this method in the 1970s using one of the “world’s first wearable computers.” The difference between Farmer‘s and Small and Tse’s techniques is what slows down the ball. Small and Tse said it is friction with the spinner, whereas Farmer said it is air resistance.
Using this technique, New Scientist reports Small and Tse accurately predicted the half of the wheel in which the ball would land 13 to 22 percent of the time. “By applying this technique to a standard casino-grade European roulette wheel we demonstrate an expected return of at least 18 percent, well above the -2.7 percent expected of a random bet,” the two wrote in the published abstract.
But you shouldn‘t think you’re pulling the wool over the house’s eyes if you test out this trick. New Scientist reports Small saying he thinks casinos are already aware.
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1WhoQuestions
Posted on May 11, 2012 at 10:36amSo you bet $5 each time on both red and black and $1 each time on green. Doing so you should be able to win a little bit of money or, at the very least, be able to play for hours on end.
Most tables require a $5 minimum bet. Betting on both red and black brings that total up to $10. The dollar on green is your real bet. Hope it comes up green often as that should pay 35:1.
“May the odds be ever in your favor.” :)
Report Post »RayOne
Posted on May 11, 2012 at 10:27amKiefer Sutherland and his television son take over LasVegas, it was only a matter of time.
Report Post »mlimberg
Posted on May 11, 2012 at 9:42amWe now know why this guy is not famous for any great discovery….
Report Post »DennisWG
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 10:48pmIt must have been quite an exciting night on August 18, 1913 in Monte carlo when a roulette wheel delivered black 26 times in a row. There was then a big scramble to bet on red, but black came up to make it 27 times in a row, and the casino had a very good day.
And, although not in Monte Carlo that famous day, Winston Churchill’s answer to the question, “If you had it to do over, would you change anything?“ was ”Yes, I wish that I had played the black instead of the red at Cannes and Monte carlo.”
Report Post »stumpy68
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 11:54pmSome wheels are biased if you track results
Report Post »you can somewhat better your odds however
you need to explain hanging around taking noted for a couple of weeks
Fla Del
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 9:45pmI have a secret system also..
Report Post »I don’t play the silly game.
Never lost a dime.
firstamend
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 9:45pm“Using this technique, New Scientist reports Small and Tse accurately predicted the half of the wheel in which the ball would land 13 to 22 percent of the time.”
Hmm, if there are only two halves to a roulette wheel.. wouldn’t you have a 50/50 chance?
Report Post »WatchingAmericaDie
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 10:26pmThere are 38 slots on the wheel, but a winning payout is only 35 to 1. The payout would have to be 37 to 1 if you want to break even in the long run.
Report Post »Redistributor
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 8:12pmb u l l s h i t momma!!
Report Post »Fla Del
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 9:43pmI have a track record of 100% winnings.
Report Post »I don’t play the silly game.
Never lost a dime.
DenisWTexas
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 7:23pmIf that’s his “system” then it‘s old news because any experienced roulette player knows to watch the relative distance between where the marble is dropped and where it lands to calculate probability and place your bet right after it’s released. No big news there.
But I‘m BETTING he didn’t save it till now because it just seemed like the “right time.” It‘s PROBABLY because he knew he couldn’t do it anymore because security is getting good enough to spot people
USING ELECTRONIC DEVICES TO CHEAT.
Hello? You’re a criminal. Try using your smartphone to calculate your odds at roulette and see how fast you have to learn to text with your tongue because all your fingers are broken…
Report Post »just slap me
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 4:45pmUh, what?
Report Post »DennisWG
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 4:12pmIt must have been interesting on that evening of August 18, 1923 in Monte Carlo when black came up 26 consecutive times. And, then there was a big scramble to bet on red, but black came up on that
27th spin, and the house won big.
Not that he was at Monte Carlo that day, but Winston Churchill was once asked, “If you had it to do over, would you change anything?“ ”Yes, I wish I had played the black instead instead of the red at Cannes and Monte Carlo.”
Report Post »chazmo
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 3:18pmI’ll stick to Holdem
Report Post »lukerw
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 2:59pmI have a System… that allows me to play for Hours… always breaking even or providing a small profit… which I use for more risky bets… and I always walk away with some winnings. Just a way to Kill Time!
Report Post »DrFrost
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 5:42pmYou don’t have to tell us your system if you want to keep it secret, but at least tell it what game it applies to.
Report Post »Ironeagle
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 2:05pmPlay red or black…your chances of doubling your money are 49% (-1% of the time it can fall on green).
Report Post »Rijkstra
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 2:25pmIn Vegas, the wheels have two green spots vs. 36 numbers. The house wins on green so the take is 1/19 or 5.26 %. The article must be assuming a single zero wheel where the take is 1/37 or 2.7%. There are single zero wheels in Las Vegas, but only for the high rollers.
Report Post »Rijkstra
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 2:38pmhttp://www.roulettehero.com/roulette/vegas/ explains the above and also shows the Bellagio as having the “en prison” rule which reduces the take to 1.35%.
Report Post »lukerw
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 4:19pmYes… BUT… you have to have a System… of when to Switch Colors… otherwise, you could always choose the Wrong One!
Report Post »funwithguitars
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 2:03pmI have read almost every book on the subject, and have tried them all. Some of these methods require tons and tons of practice, watching the wheel until you have a headache and throw up. I find the simplest methods are the best. But alas, it’s still gambling. After years of perfecting my strategy, I ran into a wheel that didn’t hit the bottom dozen for around 27 spins. Odds of this are mag-nan-imous. I kept losing large sums, and have never been back to that wheelor casino. I now sit with the “old folks” and play quarter keno. I still watch for an “in the pocket” spinner. Thats someone who has been on shift for a while and has gotton into a rhythm of sorts, and spins the ball almost the same every time. Then the ball lands in a “pocket” of numbers pretty consistantly. The pit boss‘s know this and thats why they change croupier’ often. My favorite is 25, 10, 27, 00, 1 ,13, 36, 24…Study the wheel and look for pockets, it does happen. If you don’t see lots of numbers showing up that are close together on the wheel…….It’s pretty comfortable over in the keno area…There is no other place in the casino where you can bet one quarter and win 2 grand. Thats hitting 8 out of 8. It’s the best bet in the casino, and people will walk right by, to go play star wars, or some machine with pretty colors. AHHH-uhhhh I just realized I think I spend too much time at casino’s….
Report Post »makeemstop
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:44pmGreat… now I can stop playing the Lotto.
Report Post »huey6367
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:57pmthink there is any physics to predict the lotto?
Report Post »Mark0331
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:43pmYou cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it. ~Albert Einstein
Report Post »3monkeysmomma
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 4:15pmhe was so funny.
Report Post »ThaBigPerm
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:43pmUsing this technique, New Scientist reports Small and Tse accurately predicted the half of the wheel in which the ball would land 13 to 22 percent of the time.
:0/ “accurately predict” … the “*half* of the wheel” … with a success rate of only 13-22%? And that “improves” the odds of a blind 50/50 guess as to the *half* of the wheel the ball would fall within?
Report Post »seeker9
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:36pmNo thanks. I’ll stick with the stock market.
Report Post »drphil69
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:35pm“Small and Tse accurately predicted the half of the wheel in which the ball would land 13 to 22 percent of the time.”
Huh? They could only predict which HALF it would land on 13-22% of the time??? Seems to me a random guess would predict which half about 50% of the time…
Report Post »Dudester
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 1:34pm“Small and Tse accurately predicted the half of the wheel in which the ball would land 13 to 22 percent of the time”
Uh, so you mean that its signigificantly worse than the 50% chance of just randomly guessing which half? I think I’ll stick to counting cards at blackjack – lot less chance to going to jail that way.
Report Post »teebubba
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 4:29pmThat 22 % phrase just means the writer of the article didn’t really understand what he was talking about and got it wrong.
Report Post »Autodidact
Posted on May 10, 2012 at 4:58pmThe original article from New Scientist says they correctly predicted the the winning half of the wheel 13 of 22 times (or about 59% of the time). The Blaze writer screwed it up and said 13% to 22% of the time which of course would be worse than randomly picking a half.
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