Entertainment

How Accurate is ‘Contagion’ to Reality?

There’s something thrilling about movies with scenarios that could happen — especially those that lead to the demise of humanity. “Contagion”, for example, topped $22.4 million and took the number one spot at the box-office this weekend. But how realistic is the movie that depicts what life would be like in a disease pandemic, especially in a time when the threat of viral warfare seems more of a reality?

Like many sci-fi movies, the makers have done their homework. This one, the New York Times and Wired write, went to unprecedented lengths to ensure as much accuracy for their fictional virus (for this, they contacted real virologists) and disease spread (for this, they contacted real epidemiologists). But to the reviewers, Hollywood drama still trumped much of the reality.

The general sentiment: while it could happen, it’s not going to happen quite like this.

The basic premise is that MEV-1 virus — a fictional virus modeled off of the symptoms of the Nipah virus that causes respiratory illness and is 50 to 75 percent fatal — is highly contagious and leads to a worldwide pandemic, mass panic and and attempt to control and find a cure. The Times has more in a review by Abigail Zuge, who is an M.D.

First off, Zuge, says the speed with which the disease spread is unlikely.

The real horror of most disease is that it all moves so slowly, leaving everyone involved all too much time to think. The worse the illness, the more time seems to drag.

Even With Its Scientific Points, Contagion Isnt Quite Reality

Wired blogger Maryn McKenna, who sat down with the movie’s science advisor, seems to agree comparing the fatality of the disease in the movie (four days) to Nipah, which leads to deal in 14 to 16 days.

Zuge then goes on to point out the unlikelihood of one medical character saving the day (actress Kate Winslet):

. . . character-driven screenplays like this one become parables, with cardboard characters standing in for what is really a nuanced cast of thousands.

Even With Its Scientific Points, Contagion Isnt Quite Reality

Kate Winslet plays an epidemiologist in "Contagion."

And what about the picture of apocalyptic looking streets and mass chaos. Zuge said this is not the reality of an epidemic:

Finally, pandemics are never everywhere. Even in the midst of history’s worst, ordinary life has always lurched on. Millions died from the flu in 1918, but many more millions were untouched. The early years of AIDS unfolded against a breathtakingly bland backdrop — the social equivalent of the crystalline blue sky on 9/11. Walk one block from hospitals on whose wards all hell is breaking loose and you would never know there is a problem.

Even With Its Scientific Points, Contagion Isnt Quite Reality

According to McKenna, one of the movie’s biggest mistakes is the speed with which a vaccine was found, approved and distributed. It would take much longer, and we wouldn’t be so hopeful.

Watch the trailer:

Comments (54)

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  • smith 6079 w
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 4:05pm

    The real issues with this movie are not the science, but the leftist dogma.

    The characters, many of whom are altruistic and noble government employees, all have one thing in common: they wait patiently for the government to solve the problem…which it does.

    The whole time there’s looting, mass hysteria and panic, the internet continues to work. Smart phones keep surfing the net, and those dastardly bloggers are all too able to exercise their free speech.

    Guns are only shown to be used by bad guys. Anybody who distrusts the government is portrayed as a greedy dirtbag only looking to get rich off of the suffering.

    Nope, the lesson is: Act like sheep. Don’t panic. Big Brother, er, The Federal Family will help you. Just do what they tell you and everything will be alright.

    Report Post » smith 6079 w  
  • CapitalismCzar
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 3:45pm

    Boy, the left certainly doesn’t use scare tactics to get their points across do they? Climate change advocates say we are going to doom the Earth and now this stuff… Beck gets hounded for advertising gold but these clowns tell everyone the world is coming to an end and Grandma is being pushed over a cliff.

    Report Post »  
  • jzs
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 1:23pm

    I won’t disagree with the doctor, but this actually is a legitimately frightening scenario. If a virus ever evolves that is easily transmitted as cold viruses, allows a person to be contagious for some time before they show symptoms, and has a high fatality rate, humankind is in trouble. There are plenty of viruses that show those characteristics, but not one yet that has all three.

    Report Post » jzs  
  • Marine 1
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 1:13pm

    One more thing…I personally do not take the flu or other shots nor do my wife and children. A close friend is a Ph.D. chemist and has taveled all over the world studying the Avian Flu and other issues. My friend told his family to avoid the flu shot and other shots at all costs. Any guess as to why? He also discovered that Bis-Beta Carboxyethyl Germanium Sesquioxide, or Germanium-132, has a direct impact on the immune system if someone has various types of flu. Check it our for yourselves. I keep the stuff in my prep bags and jump kits. You can by Germanium at your local health food store. (Disclaimer: I am NOT a physician so do what you think is best for you and your family and consult your own medical professionals.) Semper Fidelis

    Report Post »  
  • Marine 1
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:42pm

    At some point in time GOD is going to be fed up with the stupidity and unrighteousness He sees taking place on this planet — one of the numberless of His creations — and He is either going to allow a plague to run amok or He will create one to eliminate many. I, for one, see the day whe there will be a “badge of mourning” on every door. Remember Noah and the Ark? Standby! Remember Egypt? Standby! Don‘t think for a minute that GOD can’t make you wish you were dead or somewhere else. He can humble you and me in a heartbeat if we don’t humble ourselves. Watch and see. Mark my words — HIS words. GOD has been right so far. Have a great day! It may be your last. Semper Fidelis

    Report Post »  
  • Dianne93101
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:32am

    I don‘t think I’ll see it but I am fascinated by the popularity of this sort of movie. The very ppl that I encounter who don‘t want to talk about real horror that’s happening in the world because it’s “too depressing” will rush out to see this.
    Same goes for ppl that refuse to converse about politics who regularly read political thriller books.
    I know, it‘s human nature but that doesn’t make it any less strange.

    Report Post » Dianne93101  
  • captaincameron
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:27am

    And not all serial killers are machete wielding, hockey mask wearing, tough to kill guys names Jason.

    IT’S A FREAKING MOVIE!

    Report Post » captaincameron  
    • Rowgue
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:22pm

      This is a propaganda film designed to scare people, it’s not the equivalent of The X men.

      Report Post »  
  • LETJOYANDINNOCENCEPREVAIL
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:02am

    It feels like a propaganda movie to scare us into getting vaccines every time there’s a possible virus issue – like the H1N1 virus everyone was supposed to get vaccinated for. Turns out hardly anyone was affected by it, those who were weren’t sick for long, for the most part, and the government wasted millions of dollars in its investment in the vaccine nobody wanted. I got the feeling more that this was a government film request so we’d be more anxious to get vaccinated the next time something like that comes along.

    Report Post » LETJOYANDINNOCENCEPREVAIL  
  • Lesbian Packing Hollow Points
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:39am

    I consider movies like “Contagion” to be “grim safety”. They are suitably grim reminders of the volatility of life on planet Earth from a position of relative safety. What needs to happen from such reminders is individuals making proper preparations to be able to deal with such a catastrophic happenstance. This movie does for epidemics what the Mineral, VA earthquake did for earthquake preparedness on the east coast and the Yuma Switching Station Blackout did for grid failure in the southwest.

    Maybe now, more people will be prepared for when a larger earthquake hits in the middle of a densely populated urban area like D.C., Boston, or New York City.

    Maybe now, more people will be prepared for when a solar-magnetic storm hits the North American grid and knocks more than 90% of it offline for more than two months.

    And maybe now, more people will be prepared for when a common environmental virus mutates and starts burning through the population like a Texas wildfire.

    Water. Food. Guns. Ammunition. Clothing. Communications. Shelter. Mobility.

    Report Post » Lesbian Packing Hollow Points  
    • forthepeople
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:10am

      ‘LPHP’ Amen ! you sound like the ‘ preppers’ on Youtube .

      Report Post » forthepeople  
    • Ne_FAL
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:51pm

      Saw the movie & the local university College of Nursing had a table set up with pamphlets on disaster preparedness & contact info for local medical & disaster response volunteer organizations,were you can go to get low cost immunizations etc. So this was a interesting show even if it was a little overhyped by critics.

      Report Post »  
    • Lesbian Packing Hollow Points
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 3:38pm

      “FTP” http://www.survivalblog.com/ And about a dozen other survival/preparedness/zombie apocalypse websites are enshrines in my bookmarks. =)

      Report Post » Lesbian Packing Hollow Points  
  • Myresponse2010
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:28am

    In actuality, a super virus with a death rate of 70% would spread extremely quickly. The supposed “pig flu” was advertized as having a 90% death rate and to quickly spread. Within weeks it was all around the world. The fact is, a super virus will do exactly what this movie portrays. Society would collapse very fast and chaos would rule the day. It could even be much worse than the movie itself. Consider this movie to be the ultimate infomercial from the CDC.

    Those nay sayers that claim it will never happen like the movie are wrong. Period.

    Report Post »  
    • Locked
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:35am

      “In actuality, a super virus with a death rate of 70% would spread extremely quickly.”

      What virus are you talking about? The one in the movie had a 20-25% mortality rate, and around a 90% communicability rate.

      Report Post »  
    • Rowgue
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:24pm

      You’re a moron…period.

      Report Post »  
  • wouldubelieveit
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:26am

    Saw the movie. It tried to have morals and it showed a little bit of the dark side of mankind. Would this happen? Why not. Adds a little fear to you, maybe there is a little wisdom in saying Grace over your food, before you stick it in you mouth!

    Report Post »  
  • rabblechat
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:36am

    I agree in reality it a pandemic probably wouldn’t spread quite as fast as in the movie, but I guarantee it would spread a heck of a lot faster than the Spanish flu. International, inter-state travel has exploded since 1918. The average commute is 10 miles round trip, back in 1918 is was likely to be under a mile.

    Report Post » rabblechat  
    • Rowgue
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 4:01pm

      You missed the point entirely. The point is that it just doesn’t work like it does in the movies. We’ve had more modern outbreaks of disease and viruses, they just don’t work like the movies attempt to portray them.

      And yes people travel more and faster these days, but medicine and public health safety are also eons ahead of where they were in 1918. Most of the reason disease epidemics happen is because of poor sanitary conditions and plain ignorance. There’s a very good reason they almost all start in third world countries these days, it‘s because they’re the only ones still living in sanitary conditions out of the middle ages.

      Report Post »  
  • Locked
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:52am

    Ok, someone didn’t see this story. Spoilers ahoy:

    Kate Winslett dies. The entire point of her character is that she died without succeeding. A vaccine is created… by a virologist. Not Winslett.

    My major complaint about this movie comes from what wasn’t shown. MEV-1 in the movie sparks mass panic, but only 1/5 to 1/4 people die. This means like 75% of people infected live and are presumably immune. These people are -never- shown. Instead people act like getting the disease is an instant death note. Yes, a 25% mortality rate is horrified, but presumably those who get it and survive (which, judging by the numbers give in the movie, at least 100 million get it, as 26 million die) are now immune and thus don’t even need the vaccine.

    It was a pretty “meh” movie. Yes, it -could- happen. But not like in the movie.

    Would have been much better if they turned into zombies.

    Report Post »  
  • progressiveslayer
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:36am

    If jihadists get their hands on smallpox we’re done.

    Report Post » progressiveslayer  
    • Ne_FAL
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 1:00pm

      Nonsense ! The jihadis would need to get a hold of a sample without scoring their own goal first off. Secondly they would have to reproduce the virus also without scoring their own goal. Third they would have to distribute it without scoring their own goal . The leadership cadre of the militant Islamist movement have college educations however the levels below them are often semi literate & producing & deploying biological weapons is not as simple as making a pipe bomb.

      Report Post »  
  • David_Bromberg
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:03am

    Matt Damon? Gwyneth Paltrow? Thanks, I’ll pass.

    Report Post »  
    • teamarcheson
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:30am

      Are the Apes immuned to the virus?

      A virus cannot kill everyone or it would cease to exist. This is a poor Hollywood attempt to re-make of the Andromeda Strain movie. Does Damon get down on his knees and pray to God for a cure?

      Report Post »  
    • teamarcheson
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:36am

      Let no Chaos got to waste.

      This virus would be an excellent way for Obama to pass his Jobs Bill and confiscate peoples guns. Obama could use this emergency to nationalize power companies too.

      Run Sarah, run. Save us Sarah, save us.

      Report Post »  
    • teamarcheson
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:39am

      Why Birds?

      Why does Hollywood target birds all the time? What does Hollywood have against birds? This film will cause Liberals everywhere to begin killing birds. The film should have a disclaimer stating its only fiction and that birds are our friends and should not be harmed.

      Report Post »  
  • jdhelf
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:53am

    It’s already arrived! – Liberalism

    Report Post »  
    • handsmcml
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:34am

      Not only is liberalism infectious, it does turn people into zombies. I was watching Fox News the other night and my liberal daughter complained about all the “Hate” speech. One persons hate speech is another persons free speech.

      Report Post » handsmcml  
  • SageInWaiting
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:32am

    We ARE overdue for such a pandemic. Consider the increased population density since 1918 – there will be significant panic and death. The question is whether it will be a natural pathogen, a weaponized disease, or a “mistake.” We have so many scientists currently playing god in their gene-splitting laboratories, adding human material to other animals or using “safe” viruses to carry genetic components to humans. The Law of Unintended Consequences will eventually bite us, and bit us hard.

    Another reason to prepare a significant store of food, water, etc… self quarantine and protection from the Almighty is our only hope in such an environment.

    Report Post » SageInWaiting  
    • Grapesofwrath
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:59am

      Sage, scientists do not play God. They are not omnipotent, omnipresent, and omniscient. They are just people trying to understand the world that we live in. Also you know nothing of transgenic vectors, so leave the “science talk/speculation” to those who know something about it.

      “Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” -Benjamin Franklin

      Report Post »  
    • Miguelito
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:10am

      To Grapesof wrath:
      You make a good point…If you could TRUST people of science! We have been lied to so often, this food hurts you, oh no it doesn’t…who can you trust anymore? Just because it is written does not make it true! We must search out the truth!

      Report Post »  
    • teamarcheson
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:50am

      If you stockpile food you will be labeled a “food hoarder.” Food hoarding will be made illegal and Federal troops will enter you house looking for stockpiled food and guns. FEMA already as the authority to force you to house refugees in you home during a declared emergency. Will you let them in or resist. What will you resist with and will your neighbors help?

      Report Post »  
    • SageInWaiting
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 4:13pm

      When you add human genes to pigs, cows, or bacteria to create human-compatible tissues, breast milk, or hormones, scientists can’t tell if that might trigger a cross-species mutation of a disease that would not have otherwise been possible. Bacteria and viruses are being modified to “better understand the world.” What happens if any of these escape the lab and enter the wild… We are seeing unintended consequences from government meddling in the economy; the same will happen in the science realm. What will we learn a generation from now from the crops modified for Round-Up tolerance? Maybe nothing; maybe cancers. That, by definition, are “unintended consequences.” It wasn’t long ago margarine was proclaimed as a heart-healthy fat; now these plasticized hydrogenated oils are being warned against if not banned; they‘re not naturally occurring and the body doesn’t know how to process them effectively.

      You are concentrating on a small part of my comment: we are overdue for a “natural” pandemic cycle; whether natural mutation or man-made, it will eventually come.

      And about FEMA or street riots co-opting our preparations… there are non-violent “ways” to counter it…

      Report Post » SageInWaiting  
  • Secessionista
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:04am

    We need scientists to tell us that movies aren’t real? I just assumed everyone figured that out after “Rocky”.

    Report Post » Secessionista  
  • MAXIMUS_MARIUSZ
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 6:42am

    How accurate is Contagion to reality? Matt Damon’s in it, what else needs to be said.

    Report Post »  
  • Dustyluv
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 6:33am

    This was a movie made to secure funding for the CDC…Plain and simple. It’s pure Bullcrap!

    Report Post »  
    • smithclar3nc3
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:36am

      The only way that it could ever happen is if it were a dormant airborn disease that spread while not causing any real affects for 6 months to a year.

      Report Post »  
  • shirtsbyeric
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 6:00am

    They make this movie every ten years or so.

    Report Post »  
  • mikenaby
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 5:40am

    It already happen when the Mongels brought the plague to the west. And when the Spainish brought it and other deases to the western hemisphere killing 80-90 percent of the people here inside a generation.

    Report Post »  
  • AzCowboy
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 5:09am

    Omega Man(Heston version). Could happen.

    Report Post »  
  • yahooshaa
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 2:50am

    The scenario laid out in this movie is possible, but not with a nature born virus. You want to do this you need a weaponized airborne pathogen with multiple release/infection points on every continent. That would take a massive number of people all wanting to commit suicide/genocide. Good luck.

    Report Post »  
    • MARCH4HIM
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 3:50am

      there is a group of people that would love nothing more but to kill everyone they can …
      Even if they die in the process, by any means necessary…
      Al-Qaeda ; Iran : Hamas IRAN ,Basicly all muslim extremist are willing to die ,in order to kill ,is the way I understaand it…Did I mention THE COUNTRY IRAN..
      modern day kamikazes…

      Report Post » MARCH4HIM  
    • kenboo1
      Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:33pm

      Yeap March4him is correct… All roads lead to IRAN…

      Report Post »  
  • Psychosis
    Posted on September 13, 2011 at 2:36am

    the disease is more commonly known as liberalism ……………the cure is the constitution and the tea party

    yes, the disease will lose in the end, but a lot of poor souls will suffer under their misguided conflagrations until their eyes are opened

    Report Post » Psychosis  
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