Huge Upset Expected in Congressional Race to Replace Anthony Weiner
- Posted on September 12, 2011 at 9:07pm by
Becket Adams
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Disgraced Former Congressman Anthony Weiner
Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York’s 9th Congressional District, according to the latest Public Policy Polling results. A possible Republican victory would be a massive referendum on Barack Obama and his administration. Turner leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at a paltry 4 percent and 7 percent of undecided voters.
Based on a closer examination of the polling results, Turner is winning in the heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of defecting, “crossover” support. He is ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he is winning 29 percent of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60 percent with voters of his own party, while losing just 10 percent of Republican partisans.
Source: Public Policy Polling / Becket Adams
The Public Policy Polling report continues: “If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It‘s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving.”
Beyond Obama having a negative effect on Weprin’s campaign, Turner has actually proven to be a strong candidate with 45 percent of voters rating him favorably to 30 percent negatively. Independents give him good marks by a 56/17 spread and he has better than normal numbers across party lines with 29 percent of Democrats expressing a positive view of him to just 43 percent with an unfavorable one.
Weprin has been much maligned as a candidate but he actually has positive favorability numbers too with 39 percent of voters rating him positively and 36 percent negatively, says the report. Over the last few years there have been very few races where Public Policy Polling has conducted research where a candidate had a positive net favorability spread and still lost. If Obama’s approval in the district was even 40 percent, Weprin would almost definitely be headed to Congress. However, as the report suggests, Weprin is being dragged down by something bigger than himself.
Source: Public Policy Polling / Becket Adams
One of the key issues impacting the race is the question of Israel. A plurality of voters–37 percent–said that Israel was “very important” in determining their votes. Turner is winning those folks by an amazing 71-22 margin. With everyone who does not say Israel is a very important issue for them Weprin actually leads 52-36. Turner is in fact winning the Jewish vote by a 56-39 margin which–especially in New York–is a rarity for a Republican candidate.
“This seems to be rooted in deep unhappiness with Obama on this issue–only 30 percent of voters overall approve of how he’s handling Israel to 54 percent who disapprove and with Jewish voters his approval on Israel is 22 percent with 68 of voters disapproving. That has a lot to do with why Turner’s in such a strong position,” the report asserts.
Furthermore, it has to be remembered that the only reason this election is being held is because of Anthony Weiner’s disgraced departure. That did not sit too well with voters. Only 29 percent have a positive opinion of their former Congressman to 53 percent with a negative one. That has not helped his party’s prospects for keeping the seat.
A brief aside: one needs to keep in mind that polls are not definitive by any means and they only give a rough picture. In fact, there are several issues that need to be considered before one accepts the results of any poll. For example, there may be a problem with the sample design (for telephone surveys, how the numbers were selected and how the individuals are selected within the household), non-availability, the refusal problem (is the refusal rate different on the particular variable we are measuring?), question wording, question order, deliberate, or unconscious, lying or false reporting by respondents, or inappropriate or inadequate weighing of data.
All of these variables have been shown in various studies to be the source of not just small errors but sometimes quite substantial ones. Unfortunately, there are not many methods that allow one to quantify the effects of these errors or to validate the results within any kind of reasonable measure. Out of everything that can go wrong in a survey, only the “sampling error” can be quantified.
However, despite this, while the polls themselves may be inaccurate, the difference in the results is so great that it would suggest that even a sampling inaccuracy will not change what seems to be the most likely outcome of this congressional race.
One final note from the pollster: “55 percent of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters did not show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we’ll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65 percent of them are voting Democratic. That’s a really big cause for concern.”
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Comments (57)
kalayaan
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 1:31pmYeessss!!! Turner!!! Turner!!!! TURNER!!!!
Report Post »INOGAWD
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:46pmYEA !!!!! Republican Bob Turner…
This would put the iceing on the CAKE !!!
Like to see the LOOK on Palooosis Botox Face……
Report Post »Uranium Wedge
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:23pmNow when you say icing…….
Report Post »chazman
Posted on September 14, 2011 at 6:21am… Weiner … the most degenerate Liberal I have ever seen in the media. Liberalism is a sickness, and those who have it have Weiner’s disease!
Report Post »Tom70
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:24pmWe can only hope that he can prevail. The Democrats will try anything to keep their power.
Report Post »Teapartywoman
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:55amThe tea party is taking the lead with this election, as a proud member of the Suffolk County 9-12 Project a long with the Nassua-Queens 9-12 Project I give our members who are great Americans the win not the party personally they can go strait to hell. To take Weiner’s seat is a monumental win for all Americans.
Report Post »ronaldg261
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:23amAgreed. I wish today was the November 2012 election.
Report Post »NILAP
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:48amProgressives will come out from the woodwork to defeat the Tea Partyers and give President Obama a rubber stamp of approval.
Report Post »MARCH4HIM
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:01pmYou might want to try out that ‘utopia” thing out before you go and changing the only country that still has a consitution like ours..travel the globe…And live in some of the counties you admire…And when your eyes are open…come back home and maybe you find this country isnt so bad after all..
Report Post »You know …Marxist, Socialist, Communist…They eat there own …EVENTUALLY..
localwildlife
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 5:25pmRight Nilap, and if you close your eyes and BELIEVE as hard as you can, it might just happen.
Report Post »nuchsh
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:46amI am an orthodox jew who lives in the district (NY-9) there are two reason why we are all voting today for Bob Turner (R) ISRAEL and gay marriage (David Weprin voted for gay marriage as state assembly) all the rabbis and the jewish orthodox newspapers endorsed Turner
Report Post »VigilantGuardShark
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 11:40amI believe that this election is the 2012 election precursor. Should the Republican win it with a sizable margin, the Dems had better start packing their bags to move out of the various positions of power they are about to lose.
Report Post »vinnymac46
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:29amwhen “far right” is mentioned it usually means Tea party and fiscal restraint, when “far left” is mentioned it usually means UFO theories, statements by Krugman about 911, the chairperson of DNC saying the stimulus actually worked.
Report Post »Lucky Man
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:26amFinally, another strong indication that the country is ready to put the adults back in charge…
Report Post »oliveoil123
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:04amThis sounds like a celebration is due!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Report Post »TomFerrari
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:28amMakes him the Weiner beater.?.?
(couldn’t resist)
Report Post ».
cosette
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:35am@ Jim in Huston…. O-B-A-M-A!
Report Post »NuffSaid
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:26amYou go Brooklyn and Queens.
Report Post »Jim in Houston
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:11amCan you spell TOAST?
Report Post »thegodfather
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:08amClearly a sign of global warming…Al was right.
Report Post »LadyLibertykicksASS
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:50amThank You Anthony for being such a PUTZ or pervert….. I hear the train comin’, comin’ down the track. 2012 is comin’ and the Dems are gonna get smacked!!!!!!!
Report Post »EqualJustice
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:37amI hope they don’t find a way to FUDGE the numbers so the Dem wins.. Frankin and Reid come to mind. They also had LOSING poll numbers in DOUBLE DIGITS and still won? Things that make you go HMMMMM???
Report Post »Donald
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:21amDems thought the mid-term elections were a land slide….can anyone bet Jimmy Carter says everyday ” I am No longer the worst PRESIDENT in the modern history-Thank You Obama”
Report Post »progressiveslayer
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:12amThe handwriting’s on the wall for progressives, Weprin is just the first that will be a long line of dems to lose elections leading to the toppling of the Marxist regime.
Report Post »RootsOfTruth
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:10amI believe This will be the Vote heard ’round the world.
Report Post »Ron Staiger
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:43amThe die is cast, Obama is done, and all those frothing-at-the-mouth liberals can wring their hands and wail away- their day is done! The American people see now what they would have in store for us- Greece, Spain, France and they don’t like it. Soon the liberals and progressives will see their dreams fall apart when the defunding and repealing begins. Say goodbye to Stimulus, Quantitative Easing, Obamacare, Planned Parenthood, PBS, TSA, EPA, Dept. of Education, Bureau of Land Management, Dept. of Housing and Urban Development as well as deep cuts in Dept. of Labor, Dept. of Commerce, Postal Service, Administration for Native Americans, African Development Foundation, Agriculture Marketing Service, Americorps, AMTRAK, Artic Research Commission, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Community Oriented Policing Services, Department of Energy, Office of Elementary and Secondary Education, Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, European Command, Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity, Farm Credit Administration, Farm Service Agency, Federal Communications Commission, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the FED, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Federal Labor Relations Agency, That should save a few trillion.
Report Post »Goodbye Obama, goodbye Pelosi, goodbye Schumer, goodbye Reed, goodbye Van Jones, goodbye Bill Ayers, goodbye Trumka, goodbye Andy Stern and every other Marxist pig who’d better find deep mud holes to climb in because a new McCarthy Era is about to begin!
REVerse
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:02amRemember George Soros’ “Secretary of State Project?”
Report Post »melving
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:17amI like what was said here,,,here are a few more things that make you go hmmmmmmm………….
OBAMA says he’s the the representative for change… He’s historic, alright – Check out the changes below:
Report Post »First President to refuse to show a valid Birth Certificate.
First President to apply for college aid as a foreign student, then deny he was a foreigner
First President to have a social security number from a state he’s never even lived in
First President to Preside over a Cut to the Credit Rating of the United States Government
First President to Violate the War Powers Act
First President to Orchestrate the Sale of Murder Weapons to Mexican Drug Cartels
First President to be Held in Contempt of Court for Illegally Obstructing Oil Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico
First President to Defy a Federal Judge’s Court Order to Cease Implementing the ‘Health Care Reform’ Law
First President to Require All Americans to Purchase a Product From a Third Party
First President to Spend a Trillion Dollars on ‘Shovel-Ready’ Jobs– and Later Admit There Was No Such Thing as Shovel-Ready Jobs
First President to Abrogate Bankruptcy Law to Turn Over Control of Companies to His Union Supporters
First President to Bypass Congress and Implement the DREAM Act Through Executive Fiat
First President to “Order a Secret Amnesty Program that Stopped the Deportations of Illegal Immigrants Across the US , Including Those With Criminal Convictions”
First President
melving
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 9:19amHere are some more…….
First President to Terminate America’s Ability to Put a Man into Space
Report Post »First President to Encourage Racial Discrimination and Intimidation at Polling Places
First President to Have a Law Signed By an ‘Auto-pen’ Without Being “Present”
First President to Arbitrarily Declare an Existing Law Unconstitutional and Refuse to Enforce It
First President to Threaten Insurance Companies if they Publicly Speak out on the Reasons for their Rate Increases
First President to Tell a Major Manufacturing Company In Which State They Are Allowed to Locate a Factory
First President to File Lawsuits Against the States He Swore an Oath to Protect (AZ, WI, OH, IN, etc)
First President to Withdraw an Existing Coal Permit That Had Been Properly Issued Years Ago
First President to Fire an Inspector General of Ameri-corps for Catching One of His Friends in a Corruption Case
First President to Propose an Executive Order Demanding Companies Disclose Their Political Contributions to Bid on Government Contracts
First President to appoint 45 ‘czars’ to replace elected officials in his office.
First President to Golf 73 separate Times in His First Two-and-a-Half Years in Office
First President to hide his medical, educational, and travel records
First President to win a Nobel Peace Prize for doing NOTHING to earn it
First President to coddle America’s enemies while alienating America’s allies
First President to publicly bow to Americ
Applehead
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:59amIt’s time to take back our country from Marxist! The people are waking up! Business as usual is over! These Marxist will only benefit, I take that back, only some of these Marxist will benefit! Everyone else regardless of religion or race will suffer if these Marxist succeed! Everyone will be poor and we will be slaves! Then the strongest, most powerful Marxist will eat up the weaker ones and ethnic and religious cleansing will begin!!! There will be no religion, food or peace bc Marxism/Communism is of the Devil who uses you for his own end means and when he’s done with you he destroys you!!!
Report Post »IndianaJan
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 12:39pmRon, so well put! Totally agree!!!
Report Post »Rowwdy
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 10:43pmMelving: You forgot he is the first to be disbarred for perjury. His wife is also disbarred. He is also the first to frequent a gay spa house…”Man’s Country” in Chicago. First to smoke IN the WH. The list is endless is of this loser’s bad traits and embarrassments.
Report Post »Gonzo
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:15amI hope it plays out like this. I don‘t trust deep blue districts’ vote counting abilities though.
Report Post »kickagrandma
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 6:29amPRAY ON, AMERICA. Work hard and VOTE. It won‘t do us any good if we don’t get busy educating those who still “don’t get it” and get everybody registered to vote. We have a year’s grace to “get `er done” and time is flying.
LORD, we thank YOU so much that we yet live in a free country. We thank YOU for the opportunity to vote. We thank YOU for our responsibility to vote. In JESUS’ name, amen.
Get out there, people, who really love AMERICA, take the time to vote this day and start taking this country back, one position at a time.
Report Post »100 Million Patriots Standing
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 6:04ampoint #1
“Turner leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at a paltry 4 percent”
Democrats / Socialist Workers …..and the difference is?…..
point #2
“…..re Obama….”but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving.”
Shocking?
Report Post »NOTAMUSHROOM
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 8:10amDemocrats are Socialists/Communists who are still in denial about themselves. Only four percent will admit it.
Report Post »DaBig2na
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 5:18amThis was Schumer’s district. I guess the people finally woke up! Schumer and Weiner are both DICKS and they are finally figuring it out.
Put another one in the GOOD GUYS column it Turner wins. WOOO HOOOO !!
Report Post »Detroit paperboy
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 6:00amCalling Hillary ….. This is gonna be fun to watch. But remember,
Report Post »the dems have lots of dirty tricks and dead people have an amazing
Ability to rise and vote in that district…..
WELCOME TO DETROIT EVERYBODY ….
INOGAWD
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 7:55pmHope this is an indicator for 2012 for “CHANGE” Ha,Ha,Ha !!!
EdShultz swore Weiner would make a comeback soooooon…
These people are dreaming…………
Report Post »Bro Geo Too
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 5:18amN o m o b o b s
Report Post »NOT A CRAZY
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 3:00amTparT! It is the unpopularity of the entire political system, not just B.O. The Republicans better not forget that.
Report Post »SHOWMESTATEGUY
Posted on September 13, 2011 at 2:36amThis is good news. Hope the election goes the way this poll says it will. I hope this is an indicator that America will no longer have BO after 2012.
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