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Libya is Not Going to Export Oil Any Time Soon

Libya is Not Going to Export Oil Any Time Soon

It appears rebel dissidents have checkmated Moammar Gadhafi—bringing with them a quickly deliquescing fog of war–and this has raised a very interesting question.

When will Libya, once the world’s 12th-largest producer of oil (mostly to Europe) start exporting again? Oil shipments were halted six months ago when the Libyan rebellion began in earnest and exports were all but shut off in February as the unrest intensified and international oil companies began evacuating workers.

However, despite this, recent events have many hoping that the fighting will soon subside. They believe that once Libyan oil starts flowing again, the price of gasoline in the U.S.  should go down.

Of course, the operative word here is “should.”

If rebels actually do manage to oust Gadhafi, it could clear the way for a new government that would allow for a return to pre-uprising oil production. However, according to a recent Associated Press report, bringing Libyan oil production back to previous levels may take years.

Although international oil prices fell this week due to the prospect that Libyan oil will triumphantly reenter the market (because of a supposed de-escalation of violence between Gadhafi and his enemies), there are many factors that Libya needs to address in order to return to her former prosperity.

First, and most obviously, security must be reestablished. A new government will have to be formed, the United Nations must lift their international sanctions and damaged oil fields and pipelines have to be repaired.

With intense back-and-forth fighting, the conflict in Libya has damaged pipelines and fields and forced out foreign oil engineers who were brought in to help export an estimated 1.5 million barrels every day. It may take years to correct these damages and to calm understandably wary investors.

“This [the apparent overthrow of Gadhafi] isn’t going to lead to an overnight restart of Libyan oil exports,” says JimBurkhard, managing director for global oil at IHS CERA, in a recent AP report.

Shokri Ghanem, the former chairman of Libya’s National Oil Company, disagreed and said Libya could start producing oil within three to four months.

“There is some damage to installations, and there is a problem with some wells that were not closed properly,” said Ghanem. He believes that it will take a maximum of two years to get back to pre-uprising production levels.

Eni, the largest foreign oil producer in Libya, is not so optimistic. Although it has sent some technicians back to the country to restart oil and natural gas operations, some analysts believe that restarting crude production could take several years.

Bottom line: whether it is months or years, it will take awhile for Libya to affect any sort of change at the pump. The fighting is not over yet, let alone the establishment of a stable government or the repairing of necessary facilities.

What is truly puzzling is that, despite all of this turmoil and uncertainty, there remains an unnervingly large number of Americans who fail to see the benefit of an energy-independent America.

Civil unrest and wars in the East should convince them otherwise.

Then again, the operative word here is “should.”

Comments (31)

  • dressblues77
    Posted on August 27, 2011 at 11:39am

    A conversation between 4 Star General Wesley Clark..(Joint Chiefs of Staff) and a General at the Pentagon, 2001. Clark: Are we still going to invade Iraq?…………General: , It’s worse than that, I just received a memo from the Sec. of Defense, “The Plan” ..says that we are going to disrupt/go to war with 7 nations in the next few years, Starting with Iraq, then Libya,Syria, Somalia,Sudan,.and finishing with Iran. this is out of Gen. Clark’s own mouth.

    Report Post »  
  • Polish_Sensation
    Posted on August 26, 2011 at 4:51am

    Why are Ben Bernanke, George Soros, Al Gore, Tim Geithner, Allan Greenspan etc still alive? These pedophiles are the bankers responsible for the war in Libya, they’re responsible for other wars to. Why are we killing innocent people and making the USA and Europe look like monsters, while the bankers laugh at how retarded and stupid we are! We are puppets. But it seems like people are figuring out this system very quickly, maybe that’s why Perry threatened Ben “Shalom-Lucifer” Bernanke. Lloyd Blankenfein, CEO of Goldmansachs has been indicted and has hired the best lawyers you could get because it looks like he’s going to end up in the pen, like his boyfriend Madoff. The NWO, banking oligarchy system, sponsored by The Fed is crumbling fast. We have to lock these animals up ASAP, or else we will be seeing WW3 or another 911, this time the culprit might be Pakistan?

    Report Post » Polish_Sensation  
  • ProudInfidel
    Posted on August 24, 2011 at 8:08am

    Don`t look now but another Nations is about to become a Representative Republic. A free society with citizens who have a voice, where all people are treated as equals. Where religious tolerance is the law of the land. Where, where . . . . . . Sorry, not really !

    Report Post » ProudInfidel  
  • TheCenturion
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:00pm

    So? We have our own oil to drill. Oh that‘s right America is an endangered species so we can’t drill.

    Report Post »  
  • barajas
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 6:42pm

    Sure they will we will buy there oil so they can buy guns to kill are American soldiers with. Those dirty rotten so and so’s

    Report Post » barajas  
  • str8blues
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 6:32pm

    Anybody have any idea why we’ve committed troops in Libya? Must be because Obama and Biden want the oil. Its all about the oil. #1 thing they always said about Bush and Cheney in Iraq. FALSE though it may be…….its not about truth right? Its all about tearing down a President. I don‘t believe for a minute that we’re in there for oil. Honestly…..I have no idea why Obama got us into this war. Of course the Lame stream media is SSsh! Silent!

    Report Post »  
  • PleaseUseYourBrain
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 11:03am

    Funniest part is that oil shot up to $113+ per barrel when it was said that Libya would stop producing oil. Libya STILL isn’t producing oil and the price is now $85 per barrel. Does anybody else smell that?

    Report Post » PleaseUseYourBrain  
    • Joker50
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 2:09pm

      Yeah….there seems to be an awful lot of the smelly stuff piling up lately…….

      Report Post »  
  • CulperGang
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 10:53am

    NATO=Bankers Army. Why are “western” powers removing Muslim leaders? For sure it is not about taking out dictators for “freedom.” These dictators are all replaced by Muslims Bortherhood=mullahs army.

    Let me float this idea out: Western Bankers(their puppet governments) are given gold/oi(NATO is taking Lybian Gold as I write)………. for helping Mullahs surround Israel for an easy kill of Israel.

    Obama has NO business to wage war on Lybia or any other country. Lybia did not attack us like Iraq didn’t attack us. The real terrorist “stoking idealists” is none other than ‘Banker/governments’
    creating “smoke and mirrors” for Western Armies to “justify” the unjustified killings.
    I didn’t believe Cindy Sheehans “cause” for a long time. I thought she was a loony left….but as things unfold, it looks like she was ahead of the curve. Everyone of those ME dictators were placed in power by the British Crown/US POTUS, puppets of the “Bankers” now they are being removed by the SAME via bloodshed!!! Sheehan was onto something.
    These ME puppets served out their usefulness?? whose next? Oh, yeah they are already talking of taking out Syria, to be replaced by???? yup…Mullahs army.
    The Mullahs are going to take out Israel. Israel is going to destroy the world. Bankers are going to be in their already built to last a thousand years bunkers, fitted with food and every imaginable ammenty ride out the nuke holocaust, to start all over.

    Report Post » CulperGang  
  • JRntEwing
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 10:13am

    Deliquescing??? Are we showing off a new vocabulary word, Mr. Adams?

    Report Post » JRntEwing  
  • ImFromMO
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 9:38am

    The quote from Cynthia Ann McKinney by TOWER7FEMACAMP makes me wonder where they have been since the War on Poverty started. Surely some of the trillions of dollars wasted came from his pocket!

    Report Post » ImFromMO  
  • I_Hate_Libs
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 7:47am

    I guess they don’t really need the money then.

    The horror of the Democrat mind.

    Report Post »  
    • tower7femacamp
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 7:49am

      the gold based Dinar just like Saddam wanted, don’t mess with the fiat currency
      that will get you killed everytime.
      http://www.goldstockbull.com/articles/libya-invasion-gaddafi-plan-gold-dinar/

      Report Post » tower7femacamp  
    • tower7femacamp
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 7:52am

      A gold dinar would have had serious consequences for the world financial system, but may also have empowered the people of Africa, something black activists say the US wants to avoid at all costs.

      “The US have denied self-determination to Africans inside the US, so we are not surprised by anything the US would do to hinder the self-determination of Africans on the continent,” says Cynthia Ann McKinney, a former US Congresswoman.

      The UK’s gold is kept in a secure vault somewhere in the depths of the Bank of England. As in most developed countries, there is not enough to go around.

      But that is not the case in countries like Libya and many of the Gulf States.
      A gold dinar would have given oil-rich African and Middle Eastern countries the power to turn around to their energy-hungry customers and say: “Sorry, the price has gone up, and we want gold.”

      Report Post » tower7femacamp  
    • db321
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 8:58am

      The Muslim Brotherhood that is taking over Libya will now starve out the people to get control of them – it the same thing Obama is doing here in America by wiping out the Middle Class

      Report Post » db321  
    • one years food ration like glenn says
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 9:09am

      “This isn’t going to lead to an overnight restart of Libyan oil exports.”<<<<< No ? why not ?

      Report Post » one years food ration like glenn says  
    • tower7femacamp
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 10:55am

      Gaddaffi is certainly one of the shrewdest investors in the world.
      He beat the Italian bankers, the Agnelli family, who came begging to him to rescue Fiat. He complied and sold his shares afterwards, doubling the money. He also bested the US government and he did it all alone.
      The biggest coup was the way he got the Libyan seized money out of the US with a whopping profit. He put the American Government to shame. And it was completely legal. He was not allowed to take the money out of the US by bank transfer or any other direct means. He was only allowed to invest in the US, which he did. He bought shares of all main US corporations and at the top of the market a couple of years ago he sold the shares in European Stock Exchanges and cashed in. I am not going to reveal the amount but it is more than any amount mentioned in the world press about the Libyan reserves and that’s only part of the Libyan reserves.
      http://mylogicoftruth.wordpress.com/2011/03/02/libya-from-the-viewpoint-of-a-non-political-businessman-part-1/

      Report Post » tower7femacamp  
  • PingPongPing
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 7:03am

    Obama and his liberal base have achieved a major victory in pressuring everyday americans to accept high gas prices in favor of forcing us to accept green technology. Not just for America, but for everybody around the world as well.

    this was their plan all along – arab uprising against rulers who have oil for global consumption.

    Report Post » PingPongPing  
    • tower7femacamp
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 7:47am

      at least we got their Gold

      Moreover, US and European governments have imposed sanctions and frozen Libyan assets worth billions of dollars, including the central bank, sovereign wealth fund and state oil company cutting off funding for further support activities….unless Gadhafi has a hidden pot of gold or two somewhere

      As it has turned out, the ‘long war’ threat from Gadhafi may not be as emply as some might think. Financial Times on March 21 cited data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the Libya holds 143.8 tonnes of gold (see table), but some say the actual amount could be several tonnes higher.

      Instead of vaults in London, York or Switzerland, Libyan bullion is in the country held by its central bank, which is under Gaddafi’s control. However, Financial Times noted some believe that the gold reserves may have been moved from the central bank in the capital, Tripoli, to another location such as the southern city of Sebha, close to the borders with Chad and Niger.

      poor Gaddafi is not part of the NWO alien mining company.

      Report Post » tower7femacamp  
  • mikee1
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 6:47am

    And the liberals and rinos tell you that is going to lower gas prices. WRONG AGAIN. LOL.

    Report Post » mikee1  
  • sissykatz
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 5:24am

    We absolutely MUST get the Republican dominated House and Senate and Republican President.
    Then it won’t matter what the Dems say about anything. The Day the President is sworn in they should start drilling ind anwar and the gulf. Continue retriving the Shale. Get the coal mines going.

    The election will be in November so during the Lame duck session the companies should be getting
    all equipment ready to go.So in January they can start work. Drill Baby Drill,,,,,,,,,Screw the Middle East. Wouldn’t it be great for us to be independent of all Arabs. That is a dream and one I want to live
    to see. If we could get the other countries to do the same. Middle East won’t have anyone to hold hostage for the oil. All they would have then is sand and oil. Good luck to them……….

    Report Post »  
    • Riccy102
      Posted on August 25, 2011 at 12:24am

      Sarah Palin is the President who will do all that. She’ll resume drilling within the first 6 mths of her presidency. I hope she has decided to run…

      Report Post »  
  • blue_sky
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 3:36am

    Looks like monopolies need the price of oil higher.
    I wonder how Japan and Germany are able to buy oil and other raw materials without endless wars to “protect her” resources.

    Report Post »  
  • megansmom
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 3:15am

    Should is not the word we should learn because those who know it know the old saying would have, could have, should have. We need to learn the words yes you may drill in the gulf, yes you may drill in Anwar yes you may build a new refinery, yes you can open that new mine and yes you may build 50 new nuclear plants by 2020. Those are thr words we need to learn and live by.

    Report Post »  
  • NOBALONEY
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 3:11am

    It always get down to the oil. Libya is in shambles, with no government, no army, and a Trnasitional Council that hasn’t a clue as to where to go from here. Like it or not, 42 years ago Quddaffi united a country that was traditionally separated into three regions, and it will likely revert back to that, because there’s a huge void of a power stuucture in Libya now, and for some time to come.
    NATO, UN, and the “Responsibility to Protect” moves on with its agenda, of aiding and abetting the Arab Spring(caliphate).
    Will their next mission be Syria? Up till now, the Russians have been the major roadblock to that happening. The plot thickens.

    Report Post » NOBALONEY  
  • SHOWMESTATEGUY
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 3:11am

    I believe Palin has been talking along those lines. America has the energy resourses available to become energy independant. The dems and greens won’t allow that to happen. Why? Every country in the world that has resourses to develop are doing so. Why not America. It would solve so many problems if the dems and greens would allow it.

    Report Post »  
    • jkendal
      Posted on August 23, 2011 at 8:32am

      IF the dems and greens would allow it?? They won’t EVER allow it as long as they hold power. We MUST reclaim our government if we’re ever going to become energy independent AND a truly free nation. That includes kicking ALL of the stupid leftists out of ALL of our bureaucracies (State Dept., etc.) and getting rid of unconstitutional bureaucracies (EPA, Education, etc.)!!!

      Also, I wonder who the president is REALLY helping take over Libya…..

      Report Post »  
  • Slowman101
    Posted on August 23, 2011 at 3:00am

    Again, the key word- SHOULD! We need to learn that word and quick!

    Report Post »  

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