New Poll Claims Belief in Global Warming Is Rising… But That’s Not the Whole Story
- Posted on February 29, 2012 at 10:58am by
Liz Klimas
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Golfing in the January. (Photo: AP/Mark Duncan)
Have what seem to be warmer winters and even hotter summers been influencing peoples’ belief about global warming? A poll conducted by the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College says yes, even though climate experts say everyday weather observations are not necessarily evidence of climate change.
(Related: ‘What winter?’: Here‘s what’s happening with the weather)
(Image: University of Michigan)
According to the UofM statement, 62 percent of those surveyed said they believe that there is trustworthy scientific evidence that the earth is warming. This is the highest level of confidence participants have shown in favor of global warming data since the fall of 2009, but this is still 10 percentage points less than when the poll was first conducted in 2008. Here is more explanation of previous surveys conducted by the team for the past four years:
When the initial survey was done in the fall of 2008, 72 percent of Americans said they believed there was solid evidence that average temperatures on Earth have been getting warmer over the past four decades.
The number declined to 65 percent in the fall of 2009 and fell further to 58 percent a year later. But the most recent survey shows that in the fall of 2011, the number rebounded to 62 percent, ending the period of decline.
Nearly half the people who say they believe in global warming base it on their own personal observations of the weather. Climate scientists say daily local weather isn’t evidence of climate change. But they also claim long-term climate change is so dramatic that people do recognize and experience it. UofM notes that according to this latest National Survey of American Public Opinion on Climate Change, half of Americans cite personal experience, such as weather observations, as the main basis for their belief in global warming.
In addition to weather, the survey also states that physical evidence, such as melting icecaps, are considered observations that can contribute to belief in global warming. In fall 2008, 19 percent of participants reported that evidence of ice melt contributed to their belief in global warming while in fall 2011, 14 percent considered this melt a factor.
Of the factors that are considered to “have a very large effect on individual views” of global warming, the survey reports melting glaciers as the highest (59 percent in fall 2011; 63 percent in fall 2008), followed by warmer temperatures in recent years (39 percent in fall 2011; 42 percent in fall 2008) and severe droughts (35 percent in fall 2011; 47 percent in fall 2008).
But is that the whole story? Not only is the number down from 2008 and most people incorrectly cite everyday weather observations to formulate their opinions, but consider that recent improvements in data collection technology has also revealed that the polar ice caps are melting less than originally thought. U.S. World News reported that researchers at the University of Colorado-Boulder found that 30 percent less ice is melting than earlier projections. It does claim that ice melt that has occurred between 2003 and 2010 is enough to cover the whole of the United States with a foot and a half of water — or fill Lake Erie eight times.
Additionally, the survey results do not explicitly state whether the question posed to participants specifies belief in global warming as caused by man-made activities. Some hold that the earth is undergoing natural and cyclical warming, and therefore do believe that the earth is warming, though not necessarily as result of anthropogenic factors.
The survey does note, however, that seasonal fluctuation — asking participants about belief in global warming in the spring (just after winter) versus the fall (just after summer) — appears to be a factor:
Among those that maintain the position that global warming is not occurring there is a higher number that claim personal observations as the primary cause of this view during surveys fielded in the spring than in the fall. For example, after the relatively cold and snowy winters of 2010 and 2011 over 40% of those claiming that global warming is not happening cited personal observation as the main reason for their position on the matter.
UofM reports that 3 out of 4 people associating their political beliefs with the Democratic Party think the evidence being presented supports global warming, whereas 47 percent of Republicans believe the data is solid and 42 percent don’t consider it proof enough.
The survey of 887 people who were called randomly in the United States has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Comments (107)
bosbes
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:19pmI took geology in college before the days of Political Correctness. The earth’s climate is always changing, and mankind does not have the power to change it even if he tried. The last cooling period is now some tens of thousands of years behind us; (except for the Maunder Minimum, The Little Ice Age, which lasted approximately 500 years) and if we are going into any kind of major, planet-wide climate change, it would be another Ice Age. We have enjoyed a period of unprecedented warming on the earth, and that may be drawing to an end due to forces that we humble humans are really unable to affect.
Report Post »TheSoundOf Truth
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:31pmBos, this is without question the single most concise, accurate, and poignant post on the truth about global warming.
Excellent. If only more people would actually learn about geology and climate history they will see that we are several thousands years away from another ice age. Remember, these are also the same people who think the “flood” was a myth-even though the archeological and geological evidence is so conclusive that global warming theory pales in comparision.
Report Post »Ruler4You
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:55pmI agree. And I’d like to submit one more, small note.
“Climate”, really, isn’t very well defined. Making it a very tasty morsel for the communists as a tool for control.
If you have been to college (and paid attention) climate was referred to as GIANT periods of a particular planetary weather patterns.
Today, ‘climate’ is being referred to in terms of 10 to 150 years. A statistical anomaly, in terms of real climate.
Worse, it’s being referred to as a valid indication of “climate” by so called scientists. Who are destroying existing data sets and REPLACING THEM with “adjusted” data, manipulating raw data, manufacturing algorithms to “make” ‘models’ reflect that data, since no empirical model outside of the climate itself, exists.
When we see this kind of dishonesty coming from our ‘science’ community, it “IS” time to doubt the validity of their conclusions. But this kind of dishonesty isn‘t ONLY coming from our ’science’ communities. But also from our government. And from communists. Socialists.
While I’m not averse to the possibility of the fact that planetary climate does change, to convince me of the “Scientific” validity of Anthropogenic Global Warming I’d need some serious hard evidence. What Science “IS” all about. Not weak, manipulated, corrupt, confounded and ill conceived PLOTS to undermine existing historical record. Maybe it’s just me, but that seems to undermine the cred of such claims.
Report Post »republitarian
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 1:32pmGood point, Bosbes. If you want to worry about something, worry about global cooling. After all, some greenhouse gasses are all that stand between us and the cold depths of space. Cheery thought, huh?
Report Post »TEIN
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 2:12pmVery well put @Bosbes…
Report Post »michael48
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 5:28pmcontinental shift…relief zones ie: land rising after glazial melt –great lakes..when crazy al can humanly re-assemble Pangea, perhaps I’ll take a look at it..until then , as with my wife…mother nature will do as SHE DAM WELL PLEASES…and she tells me al bore is meaningless…next
Report Post »brickmoon
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:52pmOh no you don’t — anybody who thinks man isn’t the sole, or at least the primary cause of any change in weather or climate since we destructive little beasties started traipsing the planet is a denier! The majority of climatologists say so, and the majority of scientists have never, ever been wrong.
And if you believe that, I’ve some Nebraska oceanfront property you may be interested in…
Actually, here’s my most recent take on the issue, from a few months back: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS0EMx6dkv0
Report Post »piboulder
Posted on March 1, 2012 at 2:31am@Ruler4You:
All that stuff you mentioned should be condemned by the scientific community. Whenever these scandals occur, the academic institutions seem to do nothing. It’s terrible. The test of the validity of a theory, though, is if there is experimental or observational evidence for it, and the conclusions are repeatable through observations done by many other scientists. I looked at the issue for several years, and I kept waiting for the alarmists to come forward and make their case, showing how industrial CO2 was causing more heat to be radiated back to the earth’s surface. It never happened. They kept insisting it’s happening, but they never came forward with data showing how this works. There’s a saying I heard in science, which is an untested theory is science fiction. Well so far, AGW is science fiction.
There’s an episode of the old cartoon TV series “Dilbert,“ called ”The Fact” that illustrates pretty well (in farce) how the hysteria about AGW got going, and what’s happened as a result. The story is Dogbert makes up an “ailment” called “Chronic Cubicle Syndrome,” gets everyone worried about it, and then he and other opportunists profit from it. There’s a really interesting discussion in it between Dilbert and Dogbert about what people believe is factual as well. In fact, I think Glenn Beck should take a look at it as an example of the kind of animated shows he could do on GBTV.
Report Post »K Chad Roberts
Posted on March 6, 2012 at 11:31amBosbes,
While I agree with the sentiment of your post, I must point out something that you, and quite honestly most of Rush’s audience (particularly) fails to understand. Mankind CAN change the climate if mankind were to try. Ever heard of a Nuclear Winter?
But again, I do not take issue with most of what you said, and in fact, the reciprocal argument only helps us. If we COULD change the climate to warmer patterns as the warmers suggest, then in 50 years when our technology is so much more advanced, we could change it back right?
Report Post »trolltrainer
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:12pmI believe in global warming!
Summer is coming, the northern hemisphere is warming up! Time to think about the beach!
This fall we will experience global cooling once again. Same damn thing, year after year…
Report Post »bosbes
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:21pmYou have made me smile. Thank you for your wry comment. One always needs perspective, and you have brought it to this table. God bless!
Report Post »The American
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 1:04pmI hope you don’t mind if I use this one, it made me laugh, thank you!
Report Post »i_believe
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:09pmAlthough I don’t believe that man does a very good job of taking care of the environment, it may matter more to water quality and the health of other living things, but it has little effect on the weather. However, if the press can “say and print” it enough times, it will become known as reality. Sad …
Report Post »watashbuddyfriend
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:02pmTo use a loosely used term, pray tell me, where did the dumbees who conducted the poll, survey to determine the poll results?
Report Post »jakartaman
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:58amIts the SUN
Report Post »Always has been always will be!
Its called cycles
The arrogance of man thinking they can control nature!!!! WOW
EchoHawk
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:19pmEver hear of the law of unintended consequences?
Report Post »HKS
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 1:10pmI think its the arrogance of liberals, thinking they are important to anything makes them feel better. This is a liberal made crisis for the money, follow the money. Just look at who’s out in front of it positioned to make the money. George Soros, Al Gore, Warren Buffet and a host of liberals that I don’t even know.
Report Post »MildManneredProfessor
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 1:41pmUnintended consequences? . . . is that what occurs when you are unable to use your brain to actually investigate both sides of an argument like a real scientist would or should do? I love the comment made by E-Gore and the global warming zealots that, “the debate on global warming is over . . .” The debate on evolution is not over . . . the debate on why we dream is not over. The debate on the number of stars in the universe is not over. The debate regarding cholesterol and fats is not over. The debate on geological aspects of the planet are not over. Ridiculous . . . one of the most complex mutlti-disciplinary sciences ever discussed (global climate change) and E-Gore cliams the debate is over. Idiots at best . . . perpetrators of a myth for political, social and economic gain at the worst. These people are gainsayers . . . not scientists . . .
Report Post »wordweaver
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:56amThis whole survey approach is useless and only muddles the truth. What people think is going on with the climate is only a reflection of how they are presented with information, or often misinformation. And the media has put out plenty of misinformation. Scientists have monkeyed with data. Models used to project change into the future have been found to be horribly flawed. All of this changes the public’s perception of what is really going on, so I don’t see any value whatsoever in surveying such a thing. Stick to analyzing the data and report it. The media (including The Blaze) using public opinion surveys as a substitute for facts and truth are a disturbing and growing trend.
Report Post »republitarian
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:07pmBill O’Reilly knows that global warming is real because remembers that when he was a kid, the ponds on Long Island would always freeze so that you could skate on them. Now they don’t. PROOF!
Report Post »republitarian
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:51amTo the believers,
Please send an emissary to debate this issue with us.
Thank you.
Report Post »EchoHawk
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:25pmJanuary 12, 2011
According to NOAA scientists, 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880.
Report Post »EchoHawk
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:32pmOne can only hope that all the deniers live within three meters of sea level.
Report Post »TheSoundOf Truth
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:33pmYes yes….and this is still way hotter than the days of when dinosaurs roamed pangea 65 million years ago.
Oh, and blame the Republicans and hair spray for the demise of the T-Rex. That’s next.
Report Post »RJJinGadsden
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:33pmECHOHAWK, That really gives us something to think about. So, do just that, 1880 was not that long ago unless you are a little kid. What, about 5 generations, right?
Report Post »MildManneredProfessor
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 1:31pmEcoSparrow . . . so what? They also report that no significant temperature changes are occurring in the atmosphere. NOAA also claims that the number one gas that affects global warming is water vapor . . . why do the global warming narcissists leave this naturally occurring gas out of the computer calculations in their misleading predictions? This is a perfect case of liberal “bafoonary.” The liberal agenda always devlops opnion based upon falsities by leaving out important information. If there is a strong point that disagrees with a liberal agenda they just remove it from the equation. By removing water vapor from the global warming discussion you make CO2 the lead culprit . . . but CO2 only accounts for less than 3 percent of the global warming gases on the planet. Humans only cause 0.03 percent of CO2 on the planet . . . statistics are hard to deny . . . so who are the real deniers? The sun, water vapor, vegetation, ice packs, water surface, volcanic eruptions, deep thermal vents, termites, animals, orbits around the sun and movement through the universe, all add to the complexity of global climate science. Humans are puny, arrogant and stupid when trying to explain nature and the works of the creator.
Report Post »MildManneredProfessor
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 1:48pm3 meters? I believe the IPCC has changed that prediction because of false computer modeling . . . Name one place on the planet where the water has risen to cover shoreline? Please do not respond by mentioning any land that is subducting or sinking . . . that is not a case of water rising . . . it is a case of land sinking. Ah, but the global warming folks will report that water is rising . . . not that land is sinking. Water is not rising even though the fringes of the ice is melting . . . that is because the ice packs are thickening . . . covering less area. But then again, disregard the reports that the largest ice pack in 100 years was reported in the past 10 years . . . It si Weather cycles folks . . . ice melts and then reforms. Glaciers march and then recede. I wish the land were warming . . . more fresh water, more plants, more oxygen, more animal diveristy, more oceans for living organisms, more CO2 sequestration, new reef growth, more jungles and forests, more rain, . . . more places for people to get away from liberals.
Report Post »republitarian
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 2:14pm“One can only hope that all the deniers live within three meters of sea level.”
CURSE THE UNBELIEVERS! They get testy when you challenge their faith.
Report Post »SpankDaMonkey
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:49am.
If you add up all the pollution man has put into the atmosphere, it will not add up to what Mother Nature has put there……..
It is a plain and simple fact. Do the math yourself………….
Report Post »TOMSERVO
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 2:31pmThis is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Congrats!
Report Post »Texas Chris
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 3:25pmIt’s actually a fact. Volcanos dump more CO2 into the air than all mankind combined.
Just like with the BP spill, nobody seems to understand that the Gulf floor seeps that amount of oil every year, sea water has the capability to biodegrade hydrocarbons, yet the ecofascists flip out and cry for bigger government to save us all.
Report Post »Listen_then_think
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:46amThe record 24 foot of snowfall in Alaska in one storm is because of global warming. And the last 2 winters with record cold, record length and record snowfall in the states is also because of global warming. The problem with idiots is they believe everyone else is an idiot.
Report Post »BBReggie
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:34amThis is silly. The earth has been warming since the peak of the last Ice Age 20+ thousand years ago. The climate has been changing since the atmosphere first formed a few billion years ago. We will always have lunatics and politicians among us who are nothing more than Chicken Little’s running around claiming the sky is falling, blaming us for the condition, and demanding our money to fix a condition about which they know nothing.
Report Post »HorseCrazy
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 2:32pmyes the world has cycles…it always has. I don’t see why no one understands this. I would like to refer to the late George Carlin….http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoXFpymugbk
Report Post »bum
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:27amthis is funny b/c the last two winters (other than this mild one) have been colder and longer than any since the early 1970s. Of course, that’s due to global warming too. What a crock.
Report Post »cessna152
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:22amWhen a car salesman says “send me the money and we’ll solve your problem”…people cry “scammer”!
When a bank charges a 1% fee people cry “scammers”
When Walmart won’t accept a return after 30 days people cry “scammers”
Corrupt Government milks industries and people for TRILLIONS promising to end global warming and all of the sudden they are yelling “saviors”…
Report Post »drago
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:20amGlobal warming is bullcrapola, and climate change, thats the change of the seasons,…f-n idiots.
Report Post »These climate change/global warming so called scientists are nothing more than cult leaders trying to sucker morons into believing this crap, to get mo free bamma stash money.Time to stop giving grants of anykind, to anyone, or any organization……
Pointman308
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:18amAccording to science we are coming out of an ice age right? So it would not suprise me if we are warming slightly during my liftime. However to blame it on man is purely a ploy to take freedoms away. Chapter 13 vs.13-14 in the book of Revaltion says and “he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men, And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which had power to do in the sight of the beast”
Report Post »I have always wondered if these versus pertain to the Manmade Global Warming Lie that is being fed to the masses.
ModerationIsBest
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:39amCan we get through one political discussion without scripture being brought up?
You are fishing for verses now.
Report Post »richardfreebird
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:17amThose polled also observed presonally someone promising Hope+Change and believed,look what they got!
Report Post »RJJinGadsden
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:16amHad this in my Favorites File for quite some time now: M4GW – Minnesotans For Global Warming. Worth checking out and it is funny.
Report Post »http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
Stoic one
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:14amPfft………………..
Report Post »blazingaway
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:11amGlobal warming is nothing but another scam to tax and enslave you.
Report Post »Even if the world is waring, it is not a bad.
With more and more people we need more and more fresh water.
Moving water from the poles into humans, animals, plants and the Eco system that supports them is necessary. Nature will always find the proper balance and man will always muck it up
My2Cents from MT
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:03pmI agree. Look at Al Gore. He has made millions with his false claims and distorted facts.
Report Post »Freedom from liberals
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 2:12pmWasn’t it Al, I wish he would get,Gored who said we would lose part of the Florida and California coastline by 2015. And now Big Al bought a $9 million California pad with the Kool Aid drinkers money. It so happens it is right on the ocean. You better sell pretty soon Al before your house falls into the ocean. What a hypocrite. He doesn’t even hide his lies anymore.
Report Post »TriforcePlayer
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:11amDoesn’t mean anything.
Report Post »IMCHRISTIAN
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:10amIt is only fair that some of the usually colder states get warmer weather. Only the people with investments in so called global warming even cares, Lets worry about more important things like why don’t college kids get their condoms for free. Lets just get everything free. Why work when someone else can pay taxes and our kids can pay the debt at least we are happy and we can sun in the “warmer states”. —-tongue in check remarks
Report Post »13th Imam
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:09amThe verbage change from MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING to CLIMATE CHANGE is the rub. U of Mich, and Mule St, should now change the name to MAN-MADE Climate Change. Another United Nation hoax to fleece the US Taxpayers( Again , only 53% of eligible Taxpayers) the rest sponging off the Actual Taxpayers.
Report Post »Republicans, shut down your business’s, layoff your employee’s, go on the dole, live off welfare, foodstamps, WIC, Stop feeding the DEMOCRAT beast.
Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:08amOnce again we see the con job of global warming farce continuing; this stuff of ‘global warming’ is nothing but a farce, and a bad one at that.
Report Post »4truth2all
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:42amA dishonest poll about a dishonest “theory” … no wonderings why I don’t buy it!
Just read a FACTUAL story about the diminished sunspots and cycle 24 and how this could contribute to global cooling.
Last year we had one of the coldest winters, this year is one of the warmest.
Report Post »AS FOR ME AND MY HOUSE > WE TRUST IN THE LORD…
J_Ruben_Kincaid
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:07amPoll brought to you by the same liberal academic marxists who gave us the global warming fraud.
Report Post »RJJinGadsden
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:20amI have to agree. I read that question and it was like reading a line in an older Army manual. You have to read it several times then go ask somebody what it actually means. That questions was definitely skewed.
Report Post »drattastic
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:03amA random sampling of 887 liberals in New York and California .
Report Post »Chuck Stein
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 11:02am“72 percent of Americans said they believed there was solid evidence that average temperatures on Earth have been getting warmer over the past four decades.”
Report Post »I believe that. So what? Does that mean I believe that human activity is a significant factor in the change? No! The ice sheet in Greenland is receding and Viking setlements are being uncovered. It was a lot warmer in 1200. Did human activity make it cooler? Absurd.
republitarian
Posted on February 29, 2012 at 12:11pmThere you go again using logic to make your point.
Report Post »