DUBLIN, N.H. (AP) — Most of the country will see a colder-than-usual winter while summer and spring will be relatively cool and dry, according to the time-honored, complex calculations of the “Old Farmer’s Almanac.”
The 2011 issue of the almanac, which claims to be the nation’s oldest continuously published periodical, was released Tuesday. It predicts that in the coming months, the Earth will continue to see a “gradual cooling of the atmosphere … offset by any warming caused by increased greenhouse gases.”
The “Old Farmer’s Almanac” also is forecasting a weak La Nina — a climate phenomenon marked by an unusual cooling of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Janice Stillman, editor of the almanac, said that means much of the eastern half of the United States will experience lower-than-normal temperatures with less snow while Mid-Atlantic states will see more snowfall than usual. The West will see a mild winter with average precipitation, she said.
Meanwhile, the South will experience a cold and wet summer and the Rockies should see a mild and dry winter, according to the New Hampshire-based “Old Farmer’s Almanac.”
“It’ll be cold. There will be no mistaking winter,” Stillman said. “But it may be a little shorter or we may see some small warm spells in places like the East Coast.”
The 219-year-old “Old Farmer’s Almanac” and its longtime competitor, the Maine-based “Farmers’ Almanac,” still draw droves of fans despite it being the age of the Internet and mobile phone apps. The books, which use secret formulas to predict weather based on sunspots, planetary positions and other information, are popular at farmers markets and bookstores and have maintained a fan base that sometimes spans generations of families.
Both books have a circulation of around 3.2 million and feature a mix of helpful hints, recipes, gardening tips, jokes and inspirational messages. Their websites are full of videos, blogs, podcasts, Twitter accounts and Facebook fan pages.
In general, the almanacs’ weather predictions are similar. The “Farmers’ Almanac” also forecasts a colder- than-normal winter.
“Basically we‘re saying it’s going to be an ice cold sandwich,” Managing Editor Sandi Duncan said. “We feel the middle part of the country’s really going to be cold — very, very cold, very, very frigid, with a lot of snow. On the East and West coasts, it’s going to be a little milder.”
But the almanacs‘ forecasts are at odds with the National Weather Service’s long-range outlook for the meteorological winter, which runs from December through February.
Mike Halpert, deputy director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., said the weather service is calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country because of an El Nino weather system that has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Stillman said, however, she’s confident about the weather predictions in the “Old Farmer’s Almanac” because they tend to be 80 to 85 percent accurate — the same accuracy rate boasted by the Maine almanac.
The dueling almanacs have enjoyed a long, mostly friend rivalry that dates back nearly 200 years, said Judson Hale, the semiretired chairman and longtime pitchman for the “Old Farmer’s Almanac.” He said any time one of the almanac gets publicity, it helps the other.
But Hale is quick to say his publication is older and has more history: “We’re the one in the Smithsonian. We’re the one that Abraham Lincoln used in a murder trial. We’re the one George Washington read. We are THE one.”
Still, Hale said, both almanacs survive because they’ve maintained strong relationships with their readers for generations.
“I think it‘s very comforting for people to see that there’s a constant in this world,” he said. “There’s something that, although brand new every year, isn’t changing. It is the same.”
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Online:
http://www.almanac.com/
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diamondc
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 7:54pmthe animals coats are alot thicker than normal for this time of year,and we had a really hot summer here in kansas
Report Post »faires
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 8:16pmDiamondDC__ I remember my Dad who was raised on a farm, always said the same things about the plow horses!
Report Post »ThatOldGuy1954
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 5:34pmIts funny but I have been saying for years, if you tell me who funded the study, I’ll tell you exactly what the “result” will be. As to “Global Warming” the lead investigator as much as admitted to his peers in an e-mail that all information about the “Mini Ice Age” was ignored because it “didn’t fit his model” to get the results that he wished for. He went on to say that it did not matter because the stupid people would not know any different, and he needed that “result” to get more funding. Over a hundred years of information just ignored. So, no, I do not believe in global warming. The Farmer’s Almanac has a long history of being more accurate and alot more humble, something missing from many of the academics who “teach” our youngsters. Plus, many metierologists (sp) do not agree with global warming either. I learned to trust Air Force weather guys from my time in Army aviarion, them guys are good! And them guys are what make up many of the civilian weather prognoticators now. So who ya gonna believe? The guys who know weather in their guts or a left wing “elitist”?
Report Post »Sorry I don’t have links to back this all up with and sorry for the rambling nature of my post, My old brain is so full of these negative facts and they all seem so connected to our present perilous situation that its hard to find a good place to stop. So I’ll do that very thing right now.
faires
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 3:46pmI‘ll tell ya’s what, being in my fifties, I‘ve read and went by the old Farmers Almanac most of my life and they aren’t ever too far off. If ya wanna know about local weathers, and some predictions, talk to the natives. Example: We used to visit Chicoteague Island where a friend of ours had a Copper Shop on the outskirts of town there he was a native to Chicoteague. He at one point stopped our Conversation, and looked up into the sky, he said “ya see that round rainbow in the sky there, we said yes, he said, they’re are called “Storm Dogs”_ and within 48 theres going to be a bad storm”, and I‘ll be damned if he wasn’t right!__A lot of the old ways, still hold true, especially with the farmers, they can tell what kinda of a year its going to be.
Report Post »David2010
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 3:14pmWell, if the editor of the OFA says her publication‘s 200 hundred year old secret formula that can’t be disclosed gives 80-85% accuracy, who am I to argue with her? And of course if it does turn out next winter is colder than normal in parts of the United States, that absolutely, definitively will prove that anthropogenic global warming is a hoax.
Sure, that’s all perfectly logical.
Then again, there is this quotation from Ed O’Lenic, a long-term seasonal forecaster for the National Weather Service, on Groundhog Day in 1996, that gives me a teensy nagging doubt:
“In the October 1981 issue of Weatherwise, pages 212-215, John E. Walsh and David Allen performed a check on the accuracy of 60 monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation from the Old Farmer’s Almanac at 32 stations in the U.S. They found that 50.7 percent of the monthly temperature forecasts and 51.9 percent of the precipitation forecasts verified with the correct sign. These may be compared with the 50 percent success rate expected by chance.”
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/forum/february96/weather_2-2.html
Report Post »nicholjm
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 1:11pmI don’t see a discussion of whether the Almanac has been right or wrong over the years. That‘s an interesting omission don’t you think? All these suspicious minds here and no-one has mentioned that?
Report Post »C_Squared
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 2:03pm“Stillman said, however, she’s confident about the weather predictions in the “Old Farmer’s Almanac” because they tend to be 80 to 85 percent accurate — the same accuracy rate boasted by the Maine almanac.”
I think this answers your question, I doubt you read that far though….
Report Post »EastBayLarry
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 3:47pmnicholjm, this all seems to have struck a nerve for you. Are you claiming the IPCC/CRU facts are based upon unbiased science? If so, are you aware that in the 1970s scientists were convinced that we were entering the next ice age? I am old enough to remember that. I didn’t believe *those* scientists either.
Report Post »There are even scientists in the IPCC that STILL think the climate is cooling.
nicholjm
Posted on September 10, 2010 at 1:53pm@EastBayLarry
I also remember that, leaving politics out of this, there is alot to understand inglobal climatre systems. Nost commentators or casual observers routinely misrepresent the science. I worked in Alaska on this issue as a grad student in climate science, and I can tell you that there is a huge body of science that suuports the notion of climate change. This focus on the IPCC is nothing but a red herring, and I think I am right is saying IPCC has been vindicated (or te science has been reviewed and found to be fundamentally sound).
I am all in favor of reasonable debate on this, but unlessone does some background reading (on non-partisan sites) of scientific material it is so difficult to take rhetorical pot shots seriously.
On the cooling of the 1970 myth – it is a well trodden path for skeptics but there is no comparison between was was essentially a small number of scientists who speculated based on recently discovered glacial cycles to the huge numbers of scientists and bodies of evidence that support the current theory. I’ll leave it to you to google around, im sure you will find lots of opinion on that issue covering both sides. However, if one chooses not to believe the general scientif concensus there is little i nor anybody can do to change mnids. That seems to be where the issue is stuck in the general population. Electric utilities actually agree witht the science by the way (I know I work for them) but lobby against rules to toughen CO2 emissions for obvious reasons. Again, not a hot button for me, I am no sctivist, I just see a hoge amount of mis-understanding of the issue. Read, then decide.
Report Post »Lion420
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 1:10pmBut according to Lisa Simpson…Queen of Fantasy Land…Global Warming cause temperature extremes on both ends of the scale. heeheehee
Report Post »nicholjm
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 1:22pm“But according to Lisa Simpson…Queen of Fantasy Land…Global Warming cause temperature extremes on both ends of the scale. heeheehee”
Look, you can believe it or not believe it, but you should know what the “it” is. Global warming does involve an average rise in temperature. It also involves temporal and geographic variation in temperature. For example, western eurome is warmed by the Gulf Stream, if temperaturtes rise sufficiently, the current may be disrupted (through changes in the temperature and salinity of the return flow), deptiving western Europe of the moderating effect. So when you dismiss something, please at least attempt to learn what it is you are dismissing.
Report Post »Resolved
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 12:55pm11 errors found by British Courts in Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth. 35 alleged. Only a liberal could lie to the world and win a nobel prize for it.
Report Post »Bodysnatcher
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 12:30pmAre you sure it is not heating up?
Report Post »countryman
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 12:13pmyeah in oklahoma and getting hit be hermine oh its a awesome day i love this weather
Report Post »missmarie
Posted on September 9, 2010 at 12:06amStill floating here in Texas, glad to send H up your way.
Report Post »jessieH
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 11:49amI don’t know what it means, but in Missouri, we have “herds” of wolly catapilars heading somewhere. They are all over the highways.
Report Post »iceman35
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 11:47amThe Farmers Almanac isn’t 100 percent,but close enough when planning for snowmobiling trips with the family.I’m sure snowmobilers in the mid-west will be gearing up for some riding this year after having two bad low snow years in ‘08 and’09.
Report Post »senah
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 9:35amI‘d believe this book before I’d believe the IPCC.
Report Post »paulnashtn
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 9:45amDITTO
Report Post »butler180
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 11:55am2 ditto’s
Report Post »nicholjm
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 1:10pmInteresting that you would believe an almanac which uses “secret formulas” over hundreds of scientists who use observational data. Can’t you see the absurdity?
Report Post »VanGrungy
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 4:29pm“hundreds of scientists who use observational data.”
Report Post »ROTFLMAO
Come and Take It
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 9:04am“It predicts that in the coming months, the Earth will continue to see a “gradual cooling of the atmosphere … offset by any warming caused by increased greenhouse gases.”
Gotta love their “CYA” attempt for the tree huggers. They have no scientific evidence that cooling will be offset by ANYTHING, let alone greenhouse gases. The Farmers Almanac is a shill for the Green Commies and this proves it.
Report Post »Ellie
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 12:02pmTechnically they are correct. There may well be some warming offset by increased green house gases. There just isn’t any evidence that green house gases produced by humans have any significant effect on the climate when compared to the natural sources and worst green house gas… water vapor.
Report Post »nicholjm
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 1:08pmEllie
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 12:02pm
“Technically they are correct. There may well be some warming offset by increased green house gases. There just isn’t any evidence that green house gases produced by humans have any significant effect on the climate when compared to the natural sources and worst green house gas… water vapor”
Actually there is quite alot, that’s what the recent politicization of the issue was all about. You can disagree, but you cant simply ignore the mountains of evidence that has been produced by independent scientists. I know this has become a believe or don’t believe thing (and it might be right, or it might be wrong), but to state this is some kind of left wing conspiracy is just plain unrealistic.
Report Post »Freelancer
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 8:01amJust going by the title of this story, it won’t matter. They will shove Cap and Trade down our throats and then claim the cooling is a result of their efforts. Ohio has a number of counties who are forced to have their vehicle emissions testes every two years. This program was instituted in the early 90′s when we actually had a manufacturing base. The air quality has consistently tested well below pre 1980 levels yet we are still forced to go through this. When I called the Ohio EPA and asked why we needed to continue this program, they bluntly told me that they have a 20 year contract that they are locked into and that if they broke the contract, they would be forced to pay a few hundred million in fines. There is also an optional extension for the contract for five more years. When I asked if they intended on exercising this option, they refused to answer me. It’s a money maker for someone and they will never abandon this ridiculous program that is no longer needed. WE DON‘T HAVE ANY MORE INDUSTRY except for a Ford plant that doesn’t do all that much work compared to their past.
Report Post »independentvoteril
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 9:49amI have to say that this is NOT just in Ohio, and this is NOT just the DEMOCRATS.. IT is long past time to get rid of the EPA as it exists now.. they were given MORE power from OBAMA.. Strangely the air quality is SUPPOSE to be getting better but people are getting SICKER, YOUNGER.. why is that??
Report Post »JMS
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 10:24amHey Freelancer, what are “vehicle emission testes”? Are they similar to the bull testicles we hang from our trailer hitches here in Texas?
Report Post »anOpinion
Posted on September 8, 2010 at 4:46pmIts a shame that a purely scientific topic such as this has been so politicized. People just want the truth, not the spin from both sides of the argument.
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