Place Your Bets: Is Wall St. Betting on Romney to Win?
- Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:30pm by
Becket Adams
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Remember that three-day surge the markets experienced last week? That was weird, right? At the time, we agreed that the surge was most likely prompted by the recent developments in Europe. However, according to one market analyst, there’s a better explanation: Wall St. is betting on a Romney to win the election. In fact, according to Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Adam S. Parker, “there is no other
reason now to like stocks
than a Romney win,” as CNBC puts it.
“The problem is that it’s impossible to be bullish and right for the right reasons,” Parker said in a note to clients.
“Nearly every day someone expresses surprise that our base case is for the equity market to be down by 10-15 percent. Why is this so hard to believe? The market has had eight 10 percent down moves in the last 12 years,” he added. “We think a better question is why more people don’t forecast that the next 10-15 percent move is down than up?”
He goes on to cite weak earnings and the fact that central bankers “probably won’t be able to continue to save the day as bolstering the case against equities,” as CNBC notes, and adds that “the near-zero interest rate policies from the Federal Reserve and now the European Central Bank, in fact, are weakening the outlook for stock multiples.”
So what’s his conclusion? Investors are betting that Romney will oust President Obama and replace his administration with one that’s more “business-friendly.”
Watch CNBC’s FMHR traders discuss Parker’s call on Mitt Romney:
But as CNBC notes, his conclusion isn’t exactly ironclad.
“Historically, moves higher in the market usually mean the incumbent president is likely to win, while sell-offs simply indicate the challenger is favored,” a recent CNBC report says.
Of course, as Blaze readers who follow our daily “Market Recap” know, the markets sort of play by their own rules.
“Many investors I have spoken with believe that if the S&P 500 should rise between July 31 and Oct. 31, it would signal an impending Romney victory,” Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P, tells CNBC.
“The recovering market would be a sign that the perceived anti-Wall Street policies of the current administration will soon come to an end, as the incumbent would be replaced and that a plurality on the Potomac might even return as a result of the early November outcome,” he added. “Unfortunately for these presumptive prognosticators, history indicates, but does not guarantee, that the opposite has usually been true.”
Simply put, things are awfully uncertain.
“Things like the European sovereign debt crisis, for example, or the pending fiscal cliff are probably first and foremost in the market’s mind. A slowing global economy probably falls in there as well,” Art Hogan, managing director and head of product strategy at Lazard Capital Markets in New York, also tells CNBC. “It’s hard to know how much the election process is playing into that.”
Although he agrees Wall St. will cast a “decisive vote,” he’s not certain it has made up its mind as to who it favors.
“The fact that the election is so close now speaks volumes about how much we are concerned about the current economic situation in the United States,” he said.
“The conventional wisdom indicates that Wall Street would rather see a fiscal conservative Republican win. That’s sort of a free-market capitalist concept, except for the fact that history doesn’t play that out. What’s typically better for Wall Street is some sort of gridlock.”



















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Comments (72)
christos
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 12:35am…Mitt Romney will win because we Love +JESUS+GOD+ & our Prayers will be answered.
Report Post »swamp_donkey
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 9:34ammitt romney and the entire gop are bought and paid for by wall st duh
Report Post »christos
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 8:12pmMitt Romney has mannerisms akin to Ronald Reagan,flashy promise everyone everything personalities are cheap,True Grit Character is not it is Forged with self discipline guided by +GOD+ the U.S. does not need a shameless instructor,the U.S. needs a Leader with likeness of +GOD+ just say No to the Sham WOW/Scam WOW man.Vote Mitt Romney for all the right reasons Proven Character,we know who Mitt Romney is we do not know who the Scam/Wow man is.
Report Post »GoodStuff
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 12:32amLooks like Paulestinians are bored again. Was Alex Jones’ show off the air tonight or something?
Report Post »GoodStuff
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 12:28amCrickets….
Report Post »KidCharlemagne
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 11:32pm“However, according to one market analyst, there’s a better explanation: Wall St. is betting on a Romney to win the election.”
============================
Tell me something that I don’t already know though:
—————————
2012 Election Cycle Top Contributors
(Mitt Romney)
Goldman Sachs $636,080
Report Post »JPMorgan Chase & Co $502,874
Morgan Stanley $476,300
Bank of America $465,850
Credit Suisse Group $421,310
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/contriball.php?cycle=2012
CharlesMartel
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 9:42pmDidn’t most of them support Obama the last time?
Report Post »Canada_Goose
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 11:13pmSo what’s his conclusion? Investors are betting that Romney will oust President Obama and replace his administration with one that’s more “business-friendly.”
Report Post »———————-
There only one problem with this theory. When traders actually place bets with real money on the outcome of the election they are betting on Mr. Obama by a margin of 16.9% (57% to 40.1%) on the Intrade dot com market (that’s the one where you bet with real dollars). I’ve actually never seen Mr. Romney ever above 42%.
soybomb315
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 11:21pmI bought McCain 4 years ago when he was around 40%. Lost that one – never done intrade again
Report Post »Dave In Arizona
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 9:36pmIf so, let‘s hope they’re right.
Report Post »justasurvivor
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:57pmOn the day Romney signs the veto of Obamacare, there will be an economic upturn in this country as never seen on earth, as all business owners breathe a huge sigh of relief and start feeling confident to start REALLY doing business again and hiring again.
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 9:11pmYou didnt finish the story. Romney rhetoric states “Repeal and Replace”. The story should end with Romney then puts forward an equally intrusive Big Govt “solution” and all of those business owners then have to fire the employees they just hired and brace themselves for and economic collapse that came from policies of easy credit and no account ability from the FED which Romney continued from day one of his administration.
Report Post »soybomb315
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 9:24pmAs part of Romney’s “replace” strategy, he might order price controls on the entire healthcare industry as a way to contain costs
Wouldnt be the first time a progressive republican uses the government to advance political goals (Nixon)
Report Post »DRAGONSEED
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:56pmYou guys all better hope and pray that Romney DOES win, or we’re ALL “S.O.L.”
Report Post »soybomb315
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:18pmDid you guys see the big Ron Paul banner at Romney’s Poland visit?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3ASFTW_ozFE
LOL
KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:29pmHAHA nice post amigo.
Report Post »THXll38
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:39pmGood stuff. Makes you wonder why most Polish jokes are stereotyped towards being dumb. After seeing this video, it is clear that Poland has more brains then most pseudo constitutional America loving neocons.
Report Post »TRILO
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:06pmThe market rallied because of Romney? That is the most stupid statement I have heard. The market rallied because the market is rigged. Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, BoA, Citibank and the likes of them are the biggest government whores out there.
The stock market “rallied” because once again traders are led to believe that the Euro along with the US government will continue to print and hand out “free” money. As Buzz Lightyear “Bernanke” implied “QE into infinite and beyond”. Just like the cartoon, all the QE and ponzi scheme’s in the US and Europe are nothing but make believe. The illusion of a sound market must be maintained at all costs. If people lost confidence in it the entire house of cards would come tumbling down.
The market rallied because of Romney….I have heard it all. lol
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:13pmWell put
Report Post »Magyar
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:02pmIt won’t matter—Wall St has both sides covered.
Report Post »barber2
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:00pmThis article has been Occupied by the so-called Ron Paul people. The entire hoodie gang has appeared. Romney must be spooking them. This reminds me of a Flash Attack !
Report Post »TisITheOneWhoIsSeldomWrong
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:04pmThat was the exact point I was going to make. I just assumed that all these folks would be over at the Alex Jones Website.. Interesting.
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:12pmYeah Romney is “spooking” paul folk because we know Romney is a Keynsian just like Obama. Anyone who knows the basics of economic policies can tell BOTH PARTIES will bankrupt this country by not allowing the inevitable and necessary correction to take place.
Report Post »Romney supports the FED an they’re policies of QE and 0.1 interest rates you fool!!!!
The policies of Keynsians ie Obama/Romney policies are what turn a minor bust into a frickin DEPRESSION!!!!! Thats why Paul folks are spooked we happen to have taken the time to understand the economic situation, unlike Romney folk!
barber2
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:35pmTIS: They have come out of the woodwork on this one ! Maybe they are mad because Romney didn’t apologize for America ? That Romney states he will honor and stand by an old ally, Israel ? Or maybe because the Olympics are running so smoothly without a bit of controversy ! ?? Or because Obama is dragging in Clinton who was successful because he didn’t hate capitalism and who actually took the economic advice of the Republicans in Congress which made his administration an economic success ?
Report Post »resme
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:40pmRomney doesn’t spook me, It saddens me.
I guess this country’s debt is a joke to progressives, like you barber.
Report Post »Individualism
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:51pmhe lds cult does that to the voters.
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 9:05pm@Barber
“Maybe they are mad because Romney didn’t apologize for America ? That Romney states he will honor and stand by an old ally, Israel ?”
Ha your 7 year old mentality and bumper sticker talking points are just funny. You cant seriously be this stupid? For Gods sake this is pathetic. Look at my first comment in response to you and then look up what Keynesian economists believe, youll see Romney fits right in.
When we go bankrupt and loose our credit how much support can we send to Israel then?
Report Post »West Coast Patriot
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 4:10pmIf Romney has this thing all tied up, why is he fighting so hard to steal Ron Paul delegates? Why? Can you answer me that? No you cannot. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJ2×073YQZE&feature=youtu.be
Barber, Time_2, are Blaze operatives. There are no other posters on here that cause my posts to not appear when I bash them back like they bash me. Please guys, quit being the socialists you really are and allow free speech here.
These guys are the epitome of what is wrong with America today. Most Blazers on here can debate back and forth with meaningful topics and ideas, but these two, along with a few others like The-Monk and QP, are nothing more than anti-Paul trolls and bring nothing meaningful to the table. Pay them no mind.
Report Post »perry1980
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:40pmif wall st was smart they would get behind Romney before Obama puts them all out of business next term if elected
Report Post »txdave22
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:08pmDJIA UP OVER 60% SINCE OBAMA CAME TO POWER, SO WALL STREET IS VERY HAPPY. UNDER gw bush DJIA dropped from 11000 to 8000, a great depletion of Americans and their corporations.
Now on another topic:
Scandal: ——————–Using the services of the “D.C. Madam.”
How he was outed: Phone number found in list of clients
—————————–A staunch advocate of conservative platforms from abstinence-only education to a —————-constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, the Republican Louisiana Senator
apparently had no problem with high-class call girls, ————————————as his phone number was revealed to be on a list belonging to a company owned by the infamous “D.C. Madam.”
Larry Flynt‘s Hustler magazine found the phone number and contacted Vitter’s office to inquire about it.
The next day, Vitter issued a public apology for his “very serious sin,” ———————————–and later managed to retain his seat in the Senate.
Bill O’Reilly had finally come around to her longtime perspective and called for Sen. Vitter to resign. Maddow then played this week’s clip of ——————-O’Reilly arguing that Sen. Vitter should “absolutely not” be allowed to remain in Congress. That, however, was “very clearly not what Mr. O’Reilly has been saying since Vitter showed up on the D.C. Madam’s list,” —————————–Maddow explained, noting that O’Reilly had “never be
Report Post »historyguy48
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:54pmAnd just who do you think is on the IMF’s board, is trying for one world currency and one world government?
Report Post »The rape continues.
Individualism
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:35pmRomney will lose and lose badly because he has no alternative besides sending our troops off to war against Israeli and Saudi hated countries. that will not help the economy. Americans see that right now and they don’t want their programs cut to fund that garbage and once that is completely out, it will be a landslide win for Obama against Romney if its just the 2 of them. GOP is also in shambles and divided and so many people will not up show up for the cult follower whos more liberal than the one in office now.
Report Post »EdtheK
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 9:01pmINDY, your Paulite leanings are showing. Ron Paul would have been great if he weren’t such a whack job on foreign policy. Also 15 million don’t make a cult. There are more Members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints than Episcopalians in the US. Sorry that you are a religious bigot to boot.
Report Post »Individualism
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 9:08pmyou neo cons are terrorists to other countries abroad by invading their countries killing their people and occupying it to install your fascist goverment you like there against the will of the people. that is whacky, not minding our own business and taking care of America.
progressiveslayer
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:24pmI’ll take the crony capitalist over the Marxist any day,hopefully Mitt will have a change of heart after defeating the Marxist POS and drop the crony and just stick with the capitalist part of his description.
Maybe he’ll put an end to the welfare warfare state,never bailout any company,exploit the 1.5 trillion barrels of oil we have here in the U.S and kill the folly that is so called ‘green energy’.
Secure all our borders and make it tighter than dicks hat band.Audit the fed,repeal the so called affordable health care law,I don’t know how Barry or anyone else for that matter can use that wording for that law and keep a straight face.Abolish several unconstitutional departments and get government off the backs of citizens and businesses.If Mitt does all that I would consider his presidency a success and would call him a constitutional conservative,I won’t hold my breath.
Report Post »Too_Far_Gone
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:41pm“kill the folly that is so called ‘green energy’ ”
Well said ..
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:46pmI literally was laughing out loud at your comment. You cant be serious, you think Romney wont bail out the markets during the inevitable market correction coming soon? He supported TARP and continues to say Bernake is “doing a good job”. Audit the Fed? Ha seriously man? Ron Paul ring a frickin bell? Romney does not support auditing the fed. Ending the war fare state, again ridiculous, he wants a war with Iran fool.
But the funniest part of your post is you think he will repeal Obama care without replacing it with an equally destructive BIG GOVT PROGRAM! Then you go on to say you hope he abolishes unconstitutional Depts, laughable.
If your post was sarcastic BRAVO but if it wasnt and you think Romney may flip once more to become a Constitutionalist, please you and every like minded dullard hold you breath and dont stop.
Report Post »soybomb315
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:48pmRomney will probably delay the inevitable by a few years. However, it will be life support – not a cure
the corruption is built into our ‘capitalist’ economy and there is no way for someone like Romney to separate it. You need someone who looks at the thing from a different angle and has the courage to make the necessary cuts and return the power to individuals
Report Post »TRILO
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:27pmWell, I seriously doubt he will do any of these things. For one thing, he has flip flopped on every one of these issues so who knows where he really stand. From what I can tell he believes in bailouts, he is consistently beating the war drums, he believes in global warming, there will not be enough votes in the Senate to overturn O’Romney care, he is a globalist so I doubt he closes off the border (Bush could/would not do it with a republican majority in both houses), he will not balance or make sufficient cuts to government spending as he believes it would create too much economic hardship (he has even said so), he will not audit the fed because he believes in the fed and Bernanke’s policies, etc, etc.
The only thing I can remotely see him doing is pushing forward on using our own energy like coal and oil.
Report Post »MCDAVE
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:32pmThat’s a lot of Hoping Progressiveslayer….
Report Post »resme
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:42pmDon’t count on it progressiveslayer, Mitt Romney is more of the business as usual.
Report Post »progressiveslayer
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 10:14pmKC1 Your sarcasm detector needs a major overhaul.
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 10:41pm@ProgressiveSlayer
Report Post »So you were being sarcastic, my mistake. On this site its hard to tell some times wether its ignorance or sarcasm. Some of these RINOs actually think Romney is a Free Market guy. Sorry for the mistake.
historyguy48
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:24pmComrades as Dear Leaders commercial says “In four months you will get to vote for two different ways of living” he is correct! You can vote for Dear Leader and we will quickly become a third world nation with a dictator that we have no way to get rid off.
Report Post »Or, you can vote for Romney, and we will still go broke, but he might be able to kick the can down the road for a few more years while they slowly remove the few freedoms left to us and work on that dictator thing.
Man, this is a tough choice!
But slower is better, so Romneys the man. Maybe he can borrow some of Disney’s pixie dust and fix everything.
Maybe hades will freeze over also.
tommyr
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:20pmI have convinced three Pennsylvania voters, friends and one relative who voted for obama to vote for Romney.
If everyone that feels strongly that Obama is destroying our country, would work on only one obama voter last time to change that vote this time, Romney will win big. Get informed and go after issues of concern to your subject and change one mind. It is not very hard. Don’t wait for someone else to do it or for advertising to change minds. You owe it to yourselves, your family and especially your children and grand children. God bless.
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:35pmHa its not a major leap to vote Obama last election and the vote Romney this time around.
Obama and Romney both believe in a centrally planned economy (the FED, TARP, QE1&2), both believe in the removal of the 4th amendment (NDAA, Patriot Act), both believe 2nd amendment should be infringed, both believe in nation building and BOTH WILL LEAD US TO BANKRUPTCY!
You fools deserve a progressive, soft tyranny, statist like Robamney and for those who actually respect the constitution (Paulinistas) we were dragged down by you Neo Con RINOs who should have known better, what happens to this country is your fault.
Report Post »soybomb315
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:05pmI have convinced five Virginians (that i know of) that our political leaders are corrupt and not worthy of office. That includes Romney and Obama voters. They will be voting 3rd party or none at all until real change presents itself
Report Post »THXll38
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:43pmsoybomb315 -
Same here. In Colorado, there is a huge third party base. I will not be voting for either of these clowns.
As Richard Prior said in the movie Brewster s Millions — “Vote for None of the Above”!
Report Post »West Coast Patriot
Posted on July 31, 2012 at 1:48amSoybomb, same here in Oregon.
Report Post »West Coast Patriot
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:15pmBad bet people.
Report Post »huey6367
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:05pmI can see Wall Street liking Romney. Only Romney won’t shovel tons of tax payers dollars into companies so they can invest in the stock market causing things to look better than they really are (sound familiar?). Could it be that Wall Street doesn’t like Obama when he threatens to raise their taxes?
I’m gonna go with that.
Report Post »KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:52pm“Only Romney won’t shovel tons of tax payers dollars into companies so they can invest in the stock market causing things to look better than they really are”
Report Post »Romney supported TARP, Quantitative Easing and when asked what he thought about auditing the Fed he said he was against it!
Romney will continue to do exactly what Obama has done and Bush before him and that is continue the practice of Keynsian economics. There was only one candidate that would have stopPed the bail outs and QE of the fed. ILL GIVE YOU ONE GUESS!
soybomb315
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:08pm@huey
no idea why they would support Romney either. Probably just because they are scared what Obama would do. That is the same reason many people are voting against Obama
Romney supports bank bailouts and the Federal Reserve system. Also, Romney would keep the business taxes as low as possible and keep the corrupt tax system in its current form – both of which favor the biggest businesses
Report Post »TRILO
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:09pmReally. Romney agreed with TARP, the auto bailouts and the QE policies of the FED. Gee, what are those…. bailouts of the TBTF with taxpayer dollars.
Romney is a follower of Keynesian economics. He just happens to run a business too.
Report Post »ashestoashes
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:43pmROMNEY is financed by the same banking cartels that Obama is financed by..like the Sharia Compliant Banks who accepted 700 billion in TARP like Goldman Sachs who pay 2.5% to organizations funding terrorism.. Romney supported Global warming . gun control..NDAA..SOPA the Patriot Act..bigger government and made the prototype for OBAMACARE..They are supported by the same Rothschild’s un Federal Reserve Secret Societies..remember someone at an event lately who was wearing a tee shirt sporting the FreeMason symbol of the all seeing eye? Bingo.. Both parties…the same..No difference between the two.. Same NWO communist..only the Mormon End of Days and White Horse Prophesy see a Mormon will arise to restore a Constitution in peril and he will rule the NWO by his ability to give or withhold food..and the fact that the Mormons have amassed all of those food sources like orchards..farms .power companies and media like this one. They have set about this for a very long time..His father George tried to make it in..This time they shoved their way in.. They will rule the Mormon Kingdom of God..“and the violent take it by force”
Report Post »JohnLarson
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:56pmWell.. Wall St. was so right about the recession, so why not this time?
Report Post »AvengerK
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:33pmAlmost as right as “if you pass this stimulus unemployment won’t go over 8%”.
Report Post »AvengerK
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:33pmalmost as right as betting on Solyndra.
Report Post »Individualism
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:36pmAlmost as right as Romney being different than Obama.
Report Post »hi
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:54pmWall street loves Obama’s bailouts and his “too big to fail
Report Post »Policy.”
KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:59pmWorst part is so does Romney!
Report Post »http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h4VUjde8aM
and this is why we are in for a depression both parties refuse to allow the correction to occur.
There is one exception of course and all of you know who that was…
Gregb
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:52pmI am praying hard that Romney wins…..America needs to be saved!
Report Post »Too_Far_Gone
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:47pmIf so , they should start saying so , wouldn’t you think ?
Might help huh ?
Report Post »Too_Far_Gone
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:38pmLearn how to type a sentence, moron ..
Funny litle troll ! lol
Report Post »Individualism
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:41pml2 get a real job lazy bum
Report Post »justangry
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:36pmWall St. doesn’t care who wins. They own both parties. The market probably went up because some people believe the fed will announce it’s going to start more quantitative easing this week. It’s all going to crash eventually.
KC1
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 8:02pmCompletely agree, spot on.
Individualism
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:34pmor its that wall street prefers him because he might do a better job at redistributing wealth from the middle and lower class to the wealthy.
Report Post »Too_Far_Gone
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 6:45pmShut up stupid ..
Go play a video game ..
Report Post »barber2
Posted on July 30, 2012 at 7:54pmTOO: Our little band of needy Obama Trolls are on the loose. Just ignore which will drive them crazy.
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