Business

Realtors Group Has Some Bad News: Housing Market Could Actually be Weaker Than We Thought

One of the most crucial and closely watched measures of the housing market is the existing home sales number, which is published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes Business Insider.

During this economic crisis, and as bad as things are, it turns out that they may be far worse than we thought.

The NAR “accidentally included some new homes sales figures and double counted some of the existing home sales figures,” reports the Insider.

What does this mean? This means the health of the housing market could be far weaker than we thought–far, far weaker.

“All the sales and inventory data that has been reported since January 2007 is being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought,” NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters. ”We’re capturing some new home data that should have been filtered out and we also discovered that some properties were being listed in more than one list.”

Early this year, the Realtors group was accused of over-counting existing homes sales, saying that the sales they had estimated could have been overstated “as much as 20 percent.”

The NAR said it was “consulting with a range of experts” to see whether or not there was a drift in its monthly existing home sales data and that any drift would be “relatively minor.”

Again what does this all mean? “The depressed housing market is one of the key obstacles to strong economic growth and an oversupply of unsold homes on the market continues to stifle the sector,” Reuters explains.

This most recent revelation only confirms what economists have been questioning for years, according to the Wall Street Journal.

You may want to prepare yourself for a shock when the newly revised figures are published on December 21 with the release of the November existing home sales data.

Comments (39)

  • pmjr-jones
    Posted on December 22, 2011 at 2:55pm

    I am glad they told me now!?

    Report Post »  
  • jonbutterfly
    Posted on December 21, 2011 at 3:28pm

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    Report Post »  
  • Roros
    Posted on December 20, 2011 at 11:43pm

    Like many (NOT ALL) contractors, liers, cheats and cons.
    (there are very good contractors here in America that DO CARE we just don’t talk about much)

    Report Post »  
  • michael48
    Posted on December 19, 2011 at 12:52pm

    the 2nd most powerful Lobbyist in the “District of Criminals is the Real Estate lobby…the 1st ??? the ABA ..Lawyers…Same game , different name…

    Report Post »  
  • NewAmericanist
    Posted on December 16, 2011 at 4:49pm

    Average home price in southern California in 2007 was $595,000
    Average home price in southern California in 2011 is $297,000.

    One in four homes will face foreclosure this year.

    Our economy CANNOT rebound until this personal debt crisis is fixed and our national debt crisis is fixed.

    Its time we start dumping debt any way you can. If you have an upside-down mortgage, please, do us all a favor, and dump that debt through short-sale.

    Report Post » NewAmericanist  
    • gemologist
      Posted on December 18, 2011 at 10:43am

      As someone that is looking at REO and short sale properties, I have to say that short sales seem great but often the bank doesn’t want to play ball with it. EX: in a house worth 90k, the owner tried to make payments, got behind, then refinanced it, now he owes $128k in an area that has not been nearly as bad for real estate than other areas have been. Bank tells him for a short sale to list the property at 80% of market value, he lists it at 69k, I put in an offer of 85k knowing that a bank will never agree to, nor will the free market allow a 20% reduction off of market for the wait and headache of a short sale. Bank counters my offer at over 110k (this is obviously based on amount owed and not on market value) the owner then hired a lawyer, and we petition the bank to reconsider. As soon as it is obvious that the house cannot close before the end of the year, the bank has accepted my offer. more than a month after I offered it.

      Now, think about how many short sales are going on the market right now (tons of them, up hundreds of percent compared to pre-07 levels) and add 10000 more… the market will actually crash, unlike the 07 dip. This time it will be ugly.

      Report Post »  
  • NOAH ARK
    Posted on December 16, 2011 at 3:12pm

    Garbage in garbage out! Accidental, intentional??? Based on the Realtor participation and “bad actor” role in the housing debacle, one can only come to the conclusion that this was an intentional attempt to buffalo the market, homeowners, sellers and for NAR to pretend they had no responsibility in the Bubble by putting on their “white good-guy hats”!
    The more things change the more they remain the same whether politics or business! Nothing will change for the good until we learn to watch the foxes in the hen houses. The chickens have come home (again) to roost! Thanks, NAR!

    Report Post »  
    • sgtstubbs
      Posted on December 21, 2011 at 3:10pm

      Yes, they tend to lie and in some cases cheat. Everytime a house sells it goes up 6 percent and this runs up the cost. If you bought a house for 100k you would have to sell it for 106 plus closing cost just to break even….

      Report Post » sgtstubbs  
  • Atokaite
    Posted on December 16, 2011 at 9:00am

    Local Realtors watch this index, marry the results to Observations locally and submit data.
    ANY statistical data can and does get skewed. The Realtors, locally, know the bad news. It is part of thier sales techniques to generate optimism, to work the vagaries of the local market, just to stay alive.
    A good indicator, is the number of observed Realtor offices closing in your local area. Count these. Then drive around the niegborhood, looking for obviously abandoned houses. That is truth.
    Here, the situation is that Realtor offices are closing, not the small ones, the National Franchises.
    There are few if any abandoned houses, although, recently it appears to be increasing. One here, one there.
    The Housing market is nearing the 1930 Depression stats. Correlate, compare, observe. The Fiscal Markets will never improve, till the basics of Housing building, selling and trading gets back to pre Obama days.
    Semper Fi

    Report Post » Atokaite  
  • BuggiOlleo
    Posted on December 16, 2011 at 6:19am

    I think that we have all figured this out by now..unless you are dead, you do not need a shirt in DC to tell us the housing market is busted-Duh! Banks have to generate cash, brokers and sellers have to generate cash and so on and on- Furthermore, I always wondered exactly where is the line that crumbles the market- No one knew! Mortgages were guaranteed by the Fed. Only a fool wouldn’t Capitalize on that merit, but to what end..Now we know it– The Fed has known and speculates on these warnings– Real estate has always been a great market, but it should not rely on taxpayers to bail it out due to, in my humble opinion, insubordination and corruption at the highest levels of elected officials– Now, what are we going to do about it– VOTE! FIre all those posers send ‘em packing!

    Report Post » BuggiOlleo  
  • charlespopp
    Posted on December 16, 2011 at 6:14am

    To find a great refinance rate, you should talk to at least one national mortgage lender, one local lender, a credit union and 123 Refinance. Also ask your friends which bankers and brokers they have used.

    Report Post »  
  • MCDAVE
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 11:27pm

    Uncontrolled deficit spending is causing the devaluation of Real Estate and every thing else you own Deficit spending is a tax that steals from your net worth

    Report Post »  
    • Cosmos102
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 11:50pm

      No. Chris Dodd and Barney Frank forcing banks to give people home loans who had no possible way of paying them back are the cause, and this was done under the CLINTON administration. Under the guise that “poor people deserve to own homes”.

      Well gee, thanks Pres.Clinton and Senators Dodd and Frank! I have to edit my thoughts here so I don’t write where my mind wants to freely go. But it ends badly for them. And while we’re at it, lets take a look at all the gifts Democrat law makers have given Americans. I can list them all or shorten it to one sentence. Everything that hurts citizens and industry are laws that have been passed by the Democrats.

      Report Post » Cosmos102  
  • Ralphbp
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 10:27pm

    Bigger problem? Ya think?

    Report Post » Ralphbp  
    • loriann12
      Posted on December 16, 2011 at 6:38am

      I have to say, I, for one, am a little glad they did that. If they had been accurate with how bad it was in 2007, I wouldn’t have bought a house to get away from my MIL (we owned a house together). Even though I’m now paying 2 mortgages, I was able to correct the original mistake.

      Report Post »  
  • larry25427
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 9:43pm

    Sounds like the housing market and global warming are birds of a feather.

    Report Post »  
    • Smug
      Posted on December 16, 2011 at 7:07am

      Yes, it seems both rely on false data………………………..MSSMUG

      Report Post »  
  • SchenectadyScott
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 8:00pm

    so all the assessments and re-assessments need to be readjusted with the correct figures. This should hold up in every small claims court.

    Report Post »  
  • upstatenyteabagger
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 7:39pm

    I am a realtor and I refuse to play there game I refuse to join rpac and never contributed any of them in office. We get paid commission only and when the market is really bad and it was I have to get off my butt and work harder because we are self employed which means no unemployment however buck up 1/3 of your income to taxes and all your expenses up front. I am a honest realtor I sell where I live for a small private company because I know my area and I want people to say I love my house not omg she sold me a piece of crap I also tell my clients the truth like when a bank pre approves you for a amount remember you still have to eat, pay your utilites, etc… Also I make them have a home inspections because I have seen to many homes explode with gas leaks and thats the only way you can find them and everything else I can’t see. I believe in Carma too and I will never screw anyone over because I would never want anyone to do it to me and it has happened to me. I educate my clients and help them and if they are not already friends they become my friends during and after. If I had to be a crook I would turn in my license because that is not me. Also these towns are screwing people in taxes and they have not gone down even though values have and that ****** me off I have written letters to the editor but nothing I don’t blame Glenn for leaving NY and the only reason I stay is family and faith and friends We have a awesome church and community here.

    Report Post » upstatenyteabagger  
  • righthanddrive
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 6:41pm

    The sooner NAR break their ties to the political class, the sooner we will have a strong voice for homeowners and property owners. In its current iteration, NAR is nothing but a lackey for Congressmen and State politicians. Time to set these bloodsuckers adrift guys. All the country got from that one time tax credit was higher deficits and lot deeper in depth. All it is all the Realtors fault for sucking up tp politicians.

    Report Post »  
    • IIIcorp
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 6:52pm

      And who do they contribute to? 9 million in Chuckie Schumer war chest.

      Report Post »  
    • upstatenyteabagger
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 7:50pm

      I never vote for Chuck Schumer ewww upstate ny is mostly conservative republicans and we pay for that stinken city I wish we could make them a district and cut them off like dc our taxes would be cut in half overnight I‘m sure I pray we get some good people to run against them that don’t have hidden skeletons because we always seem to get one like when we got stuck with DeeDee Scozofava, as soon as I saw working families I knew (Progressive) oh no way I voted for the tea party candidate and he almost one and wished he would of everyday. Then we got stuck with Bill Owens who voted for everything Obama wanted including stimulis bill, he came up for re election and would of lost if the 3rd party candidates name was removed because he decided not to run but they left his name on the ballot and so Bill Owens won but he won’t next time. I think that was intentional too.

      Report Post » upstatenyteabagger  
  • Schiffan1
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 5:42pm

    Watch 2006 mortgage bankers speech. Schiff describes what is going to take place in front of 3000 mortgage bankers. Describes the sub prime mess and shorting it. How the prices of houses will be below 2000 pricing…amazing.

    Report Post »  
  • last frontier
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 5:30pm

    They did this in conjunction with the government and the banks, to try to stop the housing market from collapsing, it didn’t work now the real question is how much shadow inventory the banks are really holding. The bright side is there now opening the FEMA camps so there will be free housing for all.

    Report Post » last frontier  
  • garbagecanlogic
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 5:17pm

    I think the Realtors Group need to get their heads out of their a**es and quit worrying about how pretty a picture they can put in their ads. They need to concentrate on provide a good solid service, and know what they are doing – not guessing at something.

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/what-the-fu-is-that-local-tv-producer-drops-the-f-word-twice-on-live-tv/

    Report Post »  
  • hempstead1944
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 5:05pm

    Anyone have the courage to tell the American people the truth? Doubful……

    Report Post »  
  • Southernsoul
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 5:01pm

    What, we’re being lied to? No! I don’t believe it.

    Report Post » Southernsoul  
  • RebelBroker
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 4:31pm

    Yeah… it gets worse. The third quarter of 2011 saw a dramatic increase in Notices of Default (First step in foreclosure). Look for a nice big surge in foreclosed properties at the end of the first quarter/beginning of second quarter of 2012.

    I am a Real Estate Broker in California….. always remember that the Association of Realtors is about propping up good numbers so that more folks will think the market is good and encourage more folks to become dues paying members.

    Report Post » RebelBroker  
    • PossumRoadkill
      Posted on December 16, 2011 at 9:18am

      I update the property maps for the county where I live so I have a daily interaction with the ladies in the Real Estate Office where the properties are put on the books. They have told me that most of the work they have done this year is in foreclosures, tax sales and Sheriff sales. People are not buying new or existing homes. They are losing them back to banks and speculators. No matter what the numbers say, I see it on a weekly basis and things are far worse than they say.

      Report Post » PossumRoadkill  
  • 762x51
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 4:15pm

    Say it ain’t so!

    Report Post »  
  • GERATMO
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 4:12pm

    This doesnt change anything. We all know how bad it is, we dont need stats to tell us that. Just like were statistically out of the recession.

    Report Post » GERATMO  
    • lukerw
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 4:18pm

      Unless… you just bought a house… and overpaid $50k for it!

      Report Post » lukerw  
    • wbalzley
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 4:23pm

      There are liee, then there are damnable lies, and then there are STATISTICS…Maybe we have hit an all-time low with DAMNABLE STATISTICS?

      Report Post »  
    • lukerw
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 4:50pm

      @WBALZLEY
      I see it as more of a problem of Accountability… maybe, if lynch some liars…

      Report Post » lukerw  
    • Mr Sanders
      Posted on December 22, 2011 at 9:07am

      We ARE in a recession; double-dip or other… doesn’t matter. I would propone we are in a Stealth Depression.

      Report Post » Mr Sanders  
  • SmarterThanTheAverageBear
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 4:05pm

    Is this any different than all the other propaganda being fed to us by an inept government and a blatantly dishonest media? A wise man has to question…

    Are home sales really as good as NAR claims?

    Is unemployment really only 9%?

    Is the US dollar truly a stable currency?

    Is the the sovereign debt of the US really worthy of a AA+ S&P rating?

    Is the core annual inflation rate really below 3%?

    Is gold really only worth $1560?

    Report Post » SmarterThanTheAverageBear  
    • sgtstubbs
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 8:50pm

      You have covered the assets so far. Home is good if you have room to plant stuff to eat. Gold is good for big items. Silver is good for food. The gov will give you lies to live upon. The Taxes you pay will never go down. Can you state any tax that has ever been withdrawn.

      Report Post » sgtstubbs  
  • lukerw
    Posted on December 15, 2011 at 3:53pm

    In other words… Commissions are based upon Realestate Values!

    Report Post » lukerw  
    • upstatenyteabagger
      Posted on December 15, 2011 at 7:56pm

      no its based on sale price of house and that is determined on what a buyer is willing to pay for that property and also if it goes through a bank what the lenders apprasier also says the property is worth based on current market value using 3 sales and listings that match that property in that area and must be no less than 6 months old. Banks are way more strict now that the bubble burst

      Report Post » upstatenyteabagger  

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