So When — and Where — Is That Giant Satellite Going to Hit Earth?
- Posted on September 21, 2011 at 8:47am by
Liz Klimas
- Print »
- Email »
A six-ton satellite is hurtling towards earth. When will it land? Oh, well, sometime between Thursday and Saturday. Where will it land? Anywhere — its strike zone covers most of Earth.
NASA scientists are doing their best to predict these whens and wheres but predicting something with a mass of about three compact cars is an imprecise science. It is already a day ahead of schedule than what scientists had predicted earlier, according to Space.com. If scientists predictions of where it lands are off — even by a bit — it could be the difference between landing in the ocean, which is what scientists are hoping for, or hitting populated ground.
If you live between latitudes 57 degrees north and 57 degrees south — as far north as Edmonton and Alberta, Canada, and Aberdeen, Scotland, and as far south as Cape Horn, the southernmost tip of South America — you could see a piece of UARS, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Every continent but Antarctica is in the strike zone.
This video shows you the coverage of where the satellite could hit:
But don’t worry too much. NASA says it will break apart into at least 100 smaller pieces bringing the odds 1 in 21 trillion that anyone on Earth gets hit. NASA says that most pieces will burn up before hitting land or sea, but about 26 of the heaviest metal parts are expected to reach Earth with the biggest chunk weighing about 300 pounds.
According to Space.com in a Q&A about space debris falling back to Earth, the during the last 50 years an average of one piece of “space junk” has fallen back to Earth each day. But no serious injury or serious property damage has been confirmed. This is probably because the majority of the planet is water and uninhabited land is more prevalent than you would think.
But, one thing to note is that if you do come across what you suspect is a satellite piece, do not pick it up. Although NASA says there are no toxic chemicals present, but there could be sharp edges. Plus, it’s government property, making it against the law to keep as a souvenir or sell on eBay. NASA’s advice is to report it to the police.
Jonathan McDowell, for one, isn’t worried. He is in the potential strike zone – along with most of the world’s 7 billion citizens. McDowell is with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass.
“There‘s stuff that’s heavy that falls out of the sky almost every year,” McDowell says. So far this year, he noted, two massive Russian rocket stages have taken the plunge.
As for the odds of the satellite hitting someone, “it’s a small chance. We take much bigger chances all the time in our lives,” McDowell says. “So I’m not putting my tin helmet on or hiding under a rock.”
All told, 1,200 pounds of wreckage is expected to smack down – the heaviest pieces made of titanium, stainless steel or beryllium. That represents just one-tenth the mass of the satellite, which stretches 35 feet long and 15 feet in diameter.
When UARS was launched to study the ozone layer in 1991, NASA didn’t always pay attention to the “what goes up must come down” rule. Nowadays, satellites must be designed either to burn up on re-entering the atmosphere or to have enough fuel to be steered into a watery grave or up into a higher, long-term orbit.
UARS launched in 1991 on the space shuttle Discovery. (Photo: University of Michigan/Space Physics Research Laboratory)
The International Space Station – the largest manmade structure ever to orbit the planet – is no exception. NASA has a plan to bring it down safely sometime after 2020.
Russia’s old Mir station came down over the Pacific, in a controlled re-entry, in 2001. But one of its predecessors, Salyut 7, fell uncontrolled through the atmosphere in 1991. The most recent uncontrolled return of a large NASA satellite was in 2002.
The most sensational case of all was Skylab, the early U.S. space station whose impending demise three decades ago alarmed people around the world and touched off a guessing game as to where it might land. It plummeted harmlessly into the Indian Ocean and onto remote parts of Australia in July 1979.
A piece of Sky lab debris that was found in 1979.
The $740 million UARS was decommissioned in 2005, after NASA lowered its orbit with the little remaining fuel on board. NASA didn’t want to keep it up longer than necessary, for fear of a collision or an exploding fuel tank, either of which would have left a lot of space litter.
Predicting where the satellite will strike is a little like predicting the weather several days out, says NASA orbital debris scientist Mark Matney.
Experts expect to have a good idea by Thursday of when and where UARS might fall, Matney says. They won’t be able to pinpoint the exact time, but they should be able to narrow it to a few hours.
Given the spacecraft’s orbital speed of 17,500 mph, or 5 miles per second, a prediction that is off by just a few minutes could mean a 1,000-mile error. It probably won’t be clear where it fell until afterward, Matney says.
If it happens in darkness, it should be visible.
“If someone is lucky enough to be near the re-entry at nighttime, they’ll get quite a show,” says Matney, who works at Johnson Space Center in Houston, also in the potential strike zone.
Space junk in general is on the rise, much of it destroyed or broken satellites and chunks of used rockets. More than 20,000 manmade objects at least 4 inches in diameter are being tracked in orbit.
This video explains how fragmentation of objects in space occurs and how they are dispersed:
It’s mostly a threat to astronauts in space, rather than people on Earth. In June, the six residents of the International Space Station took shelter in their docked Soyuz lifeboats because of passing debris. The unidentified object came within 1,100 feet of the complex, the closest call yet.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Popular Stories
Paper Details Obama Admin’s Alleged Secret Note Sent to Iran: If Israel Attacks, We Won’t Get Involved 585 Comments
‘Made Up Religion’: TV Historian Enrages Muslims, Receives Threats After Producing UK Documentary Questioning Islam’s Beginnings 413 Comments
This Is the Creationists‘ Response to Scientist Bill Nye’s Viral Pro-Evolution Video Claiming They Harm Children 412 Comments
Roseanne Barr: Most Billionaires ‘Violent Pedophiles’ & ‘Heartless’ Cocaine Addicts 374 Comments
President Obama Issues Major ‘Green Energy’ Executive Order 368 Comments
Faith
- This Is the Creationists‘ Response to Scientist Bill Nye’s Viral Pro-Evolution Video Claiming They Harm Children 412 Comments
Pakistani Muslim Cleric Accused of Framing Disabled Christian Girl in Koran-Burning Case Read More- ‘Made Up Religion’: TV Historian Enrages Muslims, Receives Threats After Producing UK Documentary Questioning Islam’s Beginnings 413 Comments
Meet the Controversial German Imam Accused of Brutally Beating His Wife & Pushing Sharia Law Read More
‘Self-Proclaimed Messiah’ & Unification Church Leader the Rev. Sun Myung Moon Has Died — Here’s His Life Story Read More
Business
- President Obama Issues Major ‘Green Energy’ Executive Order 368 Comments
- Germany’s Upcoming Court Ruling Will be Huge for the EU Read More
Ford Looks to Beat Toyota for Best-Selling Car in 2012 With This Model 151 Comments
Bernanke & QE3: Here’s What You Need to Know Read More- ‘Extortion’: Why Did the Labor Department ‘Drop the Hammer’ on Oregon Farmers? 303 Comments
Technology
- This Is the Creationists‘ Response to Scientist Bill Nye’s Viral Pro-Evolution Video Claiming They Harm Children 412 Comments
‘TaserDrone’: Hackers Weaponize Quadcopter With Actual ‘Shocking’ Technology Read More
Ever Heard of the Wild ‘Burning Man’ Festival in the Middle of the Nev. Desert? Here’s Your Primer Read More
Stanford Develops Technology ‘Better Than Steroids’ for Athlete Recovery Read More
Have You Pretended to Know What ‘the Cloud’ Is? You’re Not Alone Read More
Submitting your tip... please wait!
Comments (47)
SFsuper49er
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 4:17pmNo wonder it costs and weighs so much , it looks like they wrap it in pure gold
Report Post »Worldsapart
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 9:29pmHilarious!
Report Post »Chris
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 10:01pmIt is probably vapor deposited gold on something like mylar. The Lunar lander descent stage used a lot of it. There isn’t much gold per square foot.
Report Post »Injunator
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 3:57pmIsaiah 24:5 The earth also is defiled under the inhabitants thereof; because they have transgressed the laws, changed the ordinance, broken the everlasting covenant.
Isaiah 24:6 Therefore hath the curse devoured the earth, and they that dwell therein are desolate: therefore the inhabitants of the earth are burned, and few men left.
Report Post »santramir
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 3:19pmthe decisive the nasa is to claim the property of that garbage the decisive to respond when damage occur
Report Post »ARELL
Posted on September 22, 2011 at 4:11pmseven tiger was released defame not, too! ReeGalee much tiger bonus has windswept revenge? birdmaster finance!
Report Post »Dug2Dark
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 3:02pmIf bho tells one more lie. A salellite is going to fall out of orbit & land on him??????
Report Post »DisgustedWithSociety
Posted on September 23, 2011 at 6:59amHAHAHA right on the West Wing
Report Post »planotexan
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 2:00pmWow…those sound like great deals…how do I play???
You should just go play with your new toys and leave the news to the adults. Gotta love the children!!
Report Post »tharpdevenport
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 1:58pmIf there’s any justice, it’ll slam straight into a crowded street being overtaken by Muslim prayer carpets in France.
Report Post »navydoc2008
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 1:45pmFunny, if you find a piece do not touch it, because it is Gov’t property. I’m willing to bet if it crashes down on your house they will claim no responsibility for it.
Report Post »Uechi
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:43pmHope it lands in Obama’s bedroom
Report Post »Dr Vel
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:32pmDo not touch it I might cut myself? Please. Give me a break. Don’t worry Nasa I have radiation detection equipment in case the Plutonium reactor you never admit powers these things falls near me. “Do not touch it you might cut yourself”. How about “do not touch it you may glow in the dark”?
Report Post »patriot308
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:56pmReally?????????? While the NASA excuse is pathetic; even the most simplistic reactor could power this satellite for centuries. There is a reason but “a reactor” is not it.
Report Post »Brainmuffin
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:26pmAnd here I thought they calculated a re-entry trajectory BEFORE slowing down satellites to fall to Earth.
Report Post »patriot308
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:46pmWould you want to calculate the aero factors and atmospheric skip; as it breaks into dozens of pieces? The variables are immense. I think most would not risk ridicule, by being wrong. Just sayin……..
Report Post »Baikonur
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:21pmI hope it lands right on those 10 poorest states The Blaze highlighted a couple of days ago. That way we can start fresh in that irredemable cesspool of Southern Appalachia.
The WPA project has already gathered all the valuable folklore from the region and the Foxfire book series already recorded the quaint medieval ways these people churn butter or slaughter hogs or what not, so there is nothing to lose.
Munsonmanor
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:17pmSo, I guess if somebody has the misfortune of a hunk of this thing hit their house (hopefully with nobody inside!), who gets the bill for the repairs?
Report Post »patriot308
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 1:07pmWell they did say it’s gov. property…… So I would think a very big payday is in order. Reckless endangerment, pain and suffering…… future Jerry Springer show??????
Report Post »Komponist-ZAH
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 3:11pmYou don’t have falling satellite insurance?
;)
Report Post »katamb55
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 5:09pmCan we arrange for it to land in Sandy, Utah on Friday? I need a day off. Thanks!
Report Post »pookieamos
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:17pmPerhaps the Lord could intervene to save the masses with Devine intervention and direct it to the Whitehouse . It could be made a National holiday the Day America Was Freed . In any case , history shall be made on Nov.6 , 2012 .In the next book written by a truthful Historian it will be the truest and the most compelling argument that the world and The United States of America was saved from darkness . We shall shoot guns in the air and light off fireworks in masses in this momentus ocassion , just as we do on Independance Day . We will have an Independance Day the 2nd . COME ON 2012 ! The day that Americans stood against the Elitist who want to dictate our lives and our very future !
Report Post »pookieamos
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:04pmIsn’t it terrible that we peace loving Americans feel so much hostility to Obama. Truly , I hate to feel the way I do about him but he is destroying the future of the GREATEST COUNTRY TO E V E R EXIST. COME ON 2012 -NOV. THE DAY AMERICA WAS SAVED . If a truthful historian wrote a book depicting Nov.6 , 2012 as the day the world and the UNITED STATES WAS SAVED , IT WOULD BE THE TRUEST STATEMENT TO EVER BE MADE AND I EVEN SAY MANY , MANY WILL SHOOT GUNS IN THE AIR AND LIGHT FIREWORKS ON THIS MOMENTUS DAY , JUST AS WE DO ON JULY 4TH !
Report Post »Pium Vir
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:41amTo the Rancher and Carmac; I’m with ya. But since that probably won’t happen, I would like to ask all Americans to do the following: If the satellite or any part thereof happens to fall in your area, please call the feds to come get it. While you are waiting for them to show up, walk up the debris, unzip yer pants and piss all over it. Just be sure to post some Youtube video of the feds urine soaked hands as they carry it away…. thank you.
Report Post »showmerancher
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:31amHopefully it will come down in a place where damage, injury or loss of life will be inconsequential… Washington D.C. for instance.
Report Post »pookieamos
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:57amMy thoghts exactly , evacuate the whitehouse save a few or even one person and let the White House fall , after all we can rebuild it , after four more years of Obama the country can’t be rebuilt !
Report Post »Komponist-ZAH
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 3:25pmOr Hollywood, or San Francisco……
Seriously, though, “it’s going to crash sometime somewhere” is the best we can do? 300 lbs. coming down at that kind of speed could do a lot of damage.
Report Post »thegreatcarnac
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:23amIt would be nice if it fell on the White House and did the maximum amount of damage and also…for an added bonus….obama was walking under it just at the right moment.
Report Post »pookieamos
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:59amRight on dude !
Report Post »ScreaminEagle
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 12:32pmI’ll drink to that.
Report Post »Rich
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 3:45pmYou do realize that if Obama is hit by the space junk, we will then be saying “President Biden”! Please think about what you’re saying!
Report Post »Do The Right Thing
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:22amYeah, its gov’t property, OK, that means it should say US Property, That means US, you and me, and posession is 90%, isn’t it? I could use a little windfall right about now, illegal to sell? Yeah, it’s also illegal to drive 56 MPH in a 55MPH zone… Come and get me, I know theres too many government employees, but now they have em chasing falling objects? I want one of those jobs!!!
Report Post »Angel98315
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:21amI would keep it… frak he government and it’s “lols” I probably break some law just by waking up in the morning.
Report Post »Cartec
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:20amHere we go again. Another diversion from the real stories. WHEN ARE THE IMPEACHMENT PROCEDINGS GOING TO BEGIN!?
Report Post »Anonymous T. Irrelevant
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:04am“Although NASA says there are no toxic chemicals present, but there could be sharp edges. Plus, it’s government property, making it against the law to keep as a souvenir or sell on eBay.”
Report Post »——————————————————————–
Ho, the horror of sharp edges! To them, we are but stupid children. Wouldn’t that be littering, and endangering the lives of people around the world, Mr. government worker?
If I find a piece, I am keeping it.
ChiefGeorge
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:03amSo if it takes out a large city for instance, will our enemies say that we Nuked them and the whole thing was just a cover for an attack. Then they attack for real? In this day and age, anything is possible.
Report Post »loriann12
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:11amThat’s what I was thinking. You can bet if some lands in my yard, I’m keeping it.
Report Post »SREGN
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:02amWhere – Barry’s pointy little noggin gets my vote.
Report Post »AxelPhantom
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 11:01amIf it comes down in Texas, better call the fire department ASAP, not the police!
Report Post »gmoneytx
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 10:58amOh, I hope it lands right on Obama’s head!
Report Post »cyclops
Posted on September 25, 2011 at 6:34pmLMAO!!!!! Good one……
Report Post »