Stimulus 2.0: Fed Poised to Buy More Bonds to Boost Economy
- Posted on November 2, 2010 at 8:57am by
Jonathon M. Seidl
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WASHINGTON (AP) — With unemployment at 9.6 percent, the Federal Reserve is all but certain this week to launch a new program to try to fortify the economy. Yet the program isn‘t expected to do much to ease a crisis that’s left nearly 15 million people jobless.
On Tuesday, Chairman Ben Bernanke opens a two-day meeting where he will help craft a Fed plan to buy more government bonds. The idea is for those purchases to further drive down interest rates on mortgages and other loans. Cheaper loans might then lead people to spend more. The economy would benefit. And companies would step up hiring.
That’s the plan, anyway. But many question whether the Fed’s new plan will provide much benefit.
For one thing, the Fed already has driven rates to super-low levels. And anticipation of the Fed’s new program has helped push down mortgage rates to their lowest points in decades. Yet the economy is still struggling.
The Fed has tried since the 2008 financial crisis to keep credit available to individuals and businesses. It’s done so, in part, by keeping the target range for its bank lending rate near zero.
It also pursued the unorthodox strategy of buying long-term bonds. The Fed’s purchases are so vast that they push down the rates on those bonds.
In 2009, with nation deep in recession, the Fed aggressively bought $1.7 trillion in mortgage and Treasury bonds. Those purchases helped lower long-term rates on home and corporate loans.
The Fed’s aid program this time is likely to be smaller – $300 billion to $500 billion – and more gradual. In part, that’s because the economy is in better shape now.
A smaller program will also be less objectionable to some Fed officials. They fret that further lowering interest rates poses long-term risks – namely runaway inflation.
“Bernanke is trying to strike a balance,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.
It’s a gamble, though.
Americans so far have resisted ramping up spending as they usually do after recessions. Instead, many are working to repair their finances. They are trimming debt, rebuilding savings and trying to restore their credit.
A bond-buying program of around $500 billion would likely provide only a modest boost to growth in the current fourth quarter of the year. Even with it, the unemployment rate is expected to stay above 9 percent by year’s end.
One option is for the Fed to announce its intention to buy a specific amount in bonds – say $500 billion – over a set number of months. After that, it would assess, at each meeting, whether it should buy more. Its decision would hinge on how the economy is faring.
The Fed will announce its purchases Wednesday, one day after the nation votes for a new Congress. High unemployment, meager wage gains and soaring home foreclosures have frustrated many voters. Republicans are expected to score big gains.
Wall Street investors and many economists are anticipating that the Fed will settle on $500 billion in bond purchases. Anything less could disappoint bond and stock traders, send interest rates up and stock prices down.
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, estimates that a $500 billion purchase program would provide about as much stimulus as a cut of one-half to three-quarters of a point in the Fed’s main interest-rate lever. That’s the federal funds rate.
That rate is already at a record low near zero. That’s why the Fed is turning to unconventional methods to try to energize the economy.
Here’s how the plan would work:
As the Fed buys Treasurys, the rates on those bonds will fall. It’s supply and demand: Higher demand for bonds lowers their rates, or yields. Rates on mortgages, corporate debt and other loans pegged to the Treasurys would drop, too.
But the Fed’s expected move has sharply divided economists, according to an AP Economy Survey released last week. Roughly half said such bond purchases, if they reduced rates, could spur Americans to spend more, strengthen the economy and lead to more hiring.
But the other half countered that another round of stimulus won’t provide much help. Some worry it could lead to new threats later on. These include out-of-control inflation or a wave of speculative buying that inflates bubbles in the prices of commodities or bonds or other assets.
More than a year after the recession ended, the economy has failed to generate a robust rebound. The economy did grow slightly faster last summer as Americans spent a bit more, the government said Friday. But it wasn’t nearly enough to lower unemployment.
The jobless rate stands at 9.6 percent. It’s been at least 9.5 percent for 14 months, the longest stretch since the Great Depression.
The “slack” in the economy – factories running below capacity and companies limiting hiring – has kept inflation historically low. In the 12 months that ended in September, consumer prices rose just 1.1 percent.
Bernanke has said the Fed would like to see inflation closer to 2 percent to show the economy is making a solid recovery. The Fed will likely signal in its policy statement after the meeting that it favors slightly higher inflation. But analysts think it will probably stop short of mandating an explicit inflation target of 2 percent or higher.
Bernanke doesn’t want to see super-low inflation turn into deflation. That’s a widespread drop in prices, wages and the values of homes and stocks.
Deflation can cause people to delay purchases because they feel they can buy later at lower prices. Falling incomes also make it harder to pay debts. Foreclosures rise. So do bankruptcies. Once it takes hold, deflation is hard for policymakers to break. Deflation contributed to Japan’s “lost decade” of the 1990s, and the country is still battling it.
The notion of letting inflation run higher makes some Fed members queasy.
Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and other “inflation hawks” argue that another round of Fed action could lead to too-high inflation and new speculative asset bubbles. At each meeting this year, Hoenig has opposed the Fed’s pledges to keep rates at record lows and other efforts to energize the economy. He’s likely to oppose the new aid program.
While Fed officials acknowledge that the risk of deflation is small, an outbreak could be devastating. That’s another reason Bernanke wants to launch the new aid program. It would help blunt any deflationary trends.
“Bernanke knows the lessons of Japan and the Fed’s own mistakes in the 1930s,” said Randall Kroszner, a former Fed governor. “He doesn’t want to repeat them.”



















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Comments (79)
OBAMAWORSHIOER
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:21amThis is the first of I hope many future stories on the economy. Can we count on that Editor/Writers?
I would highly recommend using BusinessInsider.com and freedomsphoenix.com.
Report Post »cliKKer
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:10amcan you say Weimar republic……
Report Post »dadsrootbeer
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:05amFunny they are doing this AFTER the election as well as printing more money tomorrow AFTER the election. This slimmy politics that is all over this adminstration is being ruled on today. GOODBYE Nancy you pis and vinegar female dog.
Report Post »Hugh Williams
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:50amIn addition to not helping unemployment and stimulating the economy has anyone else noticed much more of the stimulus money is being spent in blue state than red states? I live in Tennessee and we have 2 Republican Senators and McCain carried Tennessee last election, not Obama. This summer my wife and I visited relatives in Virginia and then went to Niagara Falls Canada. We went through numerous road construction sites in Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York and all of them had American Recovery and Reinvestment Act signs up with Obama’s symbol. I have never seen these signs in Tennessee. I know this is antidotal evidence but, it appears Obama is rewarding his friends that vote for him and is punishing his enemies that did not.
Report Post »SeekerEmerald
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:20amI have heard this reported by various news commentators, and the evidence that they presented was not anecdotal. Is it really so surprising that he would reward his friends and punish his enemies in this way? Sadly, it is not surprising at all for this party.
Report Post »We Are Not Alone
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:46amSome of our military votes won’t count but ALL felons will….
Watch this video and ask how could this happen to the people who volunteer to protect us.
US Navy Presidential Ceremonial Honor Guard Drill Team
http://www.whc.net/rjones/USN/USN_team.html
PLEASE VOTE TO PROTECT YOUR FREEDOM
Report Post »Hugh Williams
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:51amObama and the Dems know they will not vote the correct way. They must be silenced.
Report Post »wash1776
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:38amWe’d be a whole lot better off if the government would just butt out and let the economy take care of itself. If they would just lower taxes instead of grabbing for every nickle and dime so they can steal more, things would work out over time. The obvious seems impossible for the Damocrats to get. I will REJOICE as each one falls by the wayside in this election. No matter what happens we all know that Obama will claim some sort of victory. Mr. Don’t You Dare Criticize me will definitely put a spin on it. Mr. Obama—-THE SPIN STOPS HERE—as Mr. O’Reilly says.
Report Post »felina g
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:30amRead “Broke”. Someone needs to arrest these people.
Report Post »starman70
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:28amThe Fed buying bonds? With WHAT? Printed paper which isn’t worth the paper or ink used to print it! Don’t these IDIOTS read history? They better look up Germany between WW1 & WW2.
Or is it George Soros’ plan to destroy this country coming into action? Communist dictatorship – - – here we come!
Report Post »printdesignchicago.com
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:28amwe dont need stimulus… we need them to get out of the way. they‘re blocking US from dragging this ProgressiveMotors piece of poop car out of the ditch obama’s dug it further in to.
Report Post »jerryod1627
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:21amIt‘s going get a lot worse before it get’s better, obama et al will see to that! This will probably start the hyper inflation.
Report Post »oldoldtimer
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:51amYou must punish your enemies.
Report Post »dnlchisholm
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:17amThis will be the place to watch the results! I can’t wait!
Help Us Decide Which House Races to Cover at http://mittromneycentral.com/2010/11/01/election-day-preview-help-us-decide-which-house-races-to-cover/
This will be epic and monumental!
Report Post »RWRoberts
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:15amWhy is it that our government can’t see the positive effects of the actions in Germany? Cut spending, hold down taxes, and a strong economy follows. The UK is cutting and I‘ll bet anything we’ll be hearing about the strength of their economy in six to twelve months. Of course, we‘ll be hearing it over the radio as we stand in bread lines with wheelbarrows full of cash to pay for the bread that’ll cost $5,000 a loaf.
Report Post »oldoldtimer
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:40amThey do! When your intent is to collapse a Gov’t you do exactly what Obama is doing. Every thing that brings down your economy to the point of collapse. He wants fighting in the streets. That way he can seieze control through Martial law. If he does Congress can not even address it for 6 months.
Report Post »just the facts
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 12:42pmThey know and see what’s going on very clearly. This is what they want. The progressives have created and still are creating the perfect storm. Ant the results will be the loss of the U.S as we know it. This was and is their plan from the beginning. It is that now, at this point in time, the stage was properly set for the players. People for the progressive movement were, are, and will be in place for furthering of the agenda. This was all preplanned and in waiting.
Report Post »Hobbs57
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:15amIt’s a SCAM…. The FEDS are setting us up… They are going to flood the currency in Circulation.. This is the final move.. These people are scared to Death of the Tea Party people.. Since the founding of our Nation, the Fed’s ( Which is not Federal at all, it’s private) are going to set us up to be hung this next year… Just watch… If tehy don’t kill the dllar, which, I don’t think they will, since they are the same people who control the Euro, but what scares me, is all the buying of this money from China, which I am sure are the same people associate with the Fed… They will break us down, buy up our market and then liquidate our Nation… WE need Monitary Reform, PERIOD… There is no reason we shouldn’t print our own currency… However, before that happens, we need to change out all these Establishment Politicians and replace them with We The People.. I hope the internet and hopefully our own arm of the Media can come to be…
UHHhhh, it is such a tricky mess… I have to sit down and study history a bit more to figure out why they are going to PRINT, a half a trillion more dollars.. because then they use fractional banking, which multiplies that by 10, and our money will be worthless.. George Washington talks of this.. The Bank of ENgland was scared to death America would start printing her own money… THey knew we would become a super power.. That crooked banker Adams, was a greedy souless person.. Oh well, got to go to school now.. Please post your input so we can see what ideas are out there… I know many of you on here are very smart people…
Watch Bill Still, “Money Masters” , then you can fully understand what Printing money is and who the Fed is, if you don’t already know..
Have Great Day, and God Bless !!
Report Post »Indyeast
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:15amHow can a place that WE pay interest to… ON OUR OWN Money….use OUR MONEY to buy OUR money?.
Report Post »I am confused.
Whole Nine Yards
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:14amReminds me of the definition for “insanity” …
Report Post »Freelancer
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:13amWeimar Republic here we come…..
Report Post »rebel
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:12amI think I remember some crazy guy saying this would happen. I’m reminded of the clip of the kid from the stewart/colbert rally “if i had a ton of debt i would get more debt…and then figuire it out.”
Report Post »I guess we can figuire it out in 2012
Pyx
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:12amIn Weimar, Germany after such a move by the German Fed in 1923, it was somewhat costly to buy a loaf of bread without a wheelbarrow filled with money.
Its interesting that Glenn Beck and several others have been warning about this catastrophe for quite some time now.The article at the URL above mentions;
Report Post »An April 29 editorial in the San Francisco Examiner warned:
“With an unprecedented deficit that’s approaching $2 trillion, [the President’s 2010] budget proposal is a surefire prescription for hyperinflation. So every senator and representative who votes for this monster $3.6 trillion budget will be endorsing a spending spree that could very well turn America into the next Weimar Republic.”
shorthanded12
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:11amHeres why were in this mess: Greenspan, Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner, Dodd, B. Frank, B. Clinton and all the 10 major banks and WALL Street IE: BOA, Goldman SACHS, AIG, just to name a few. THE BOOKS ARE COOKED, and for the DEMS to claim They gave Bush (2) a budget surplus is all foney bologny. ALL SMOKE AND SCREEN.
Report Post »heavyduty
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:10amThere ought to be a law passed by us, that can stop congress dead in their tracks from doing anything until they hear from us. Sort of like an emergency brake or something.
Report Post »tobywil2
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:22amCongress should be required to have certified economists prepare an “economic impact statement” before passing any new law. A Congressional vote approving the “economic impact statement” should be required before Congress could even vote on the law. Perhaps, a Congerssperson should be required to pass a quiz on the law before being allowed to vote. http://commonsense21c.com/
Report Post »tobywil2
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:09amInflation – stealth taxation
Inflation is not a recent phenomenon. During the 19th Century the inflation rate in the United States was 12% for the entire Century. In 1800, $0.89 had the purchasing power of $1.00 in 1900, a change of about 12% in 100 years. From 1900 to 2007 the inflation rate was about 25 to 1, a change of 2500% in 107 years. A Google search lists over 20 pages of “inflation calculators” three of the most popular inflation calculators list the inflation rate of between 24.6 and27.71 from 1900 and 2007. In other words, $1.00 in 1900 was worth around $25.00 in 2007.
What happened? In the late 1800’s and early 1900’s four factors emerged that caused inflation to increase. These are:
• Creation of the “Fourth Branch of Government” the Bureaucracy
• Enacting and enforcing the Sherman Antitrust Act.
• Creation of the Federal Reserve
• Enacting the income tax
• Wars
How did these factors cause such erosion in the value of the dollar? Chapter 9 of “21st Century Common Sense” explains in simple terms how these factors produced inflation of the dollar and aided the “Wannabe Peers” in usurping our freedom. http://commonsense21c.com/
Report Post »heavyduty
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:08amStupidity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Obama is trying his best to destroy this country just as fast as he can. Because he now knows that his time is limited. Don’t be fooled by this sorry excuse for a president. The Democrats are pushing hard now to do as much damage as they can before they are cast out of office.
Report Post »krjones
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:07amJust take your medicine and quit trying to manipulate the free market! You are only hurting us over the long term.
Report Post »snowleopard3200 {mix art}
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:04amStimulus 2.0, the beginning of hyperinflation and Obamas plan to finish the country unless it is stopped and bloody soon.
Report Post »Rogue
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:53amGreat – more stimulus that the banks will simply put in thier pockets or invest in-house. This will do nothing to ease lending or restore consumer confidence.
Here’s an idea, Fed. Wait until Feb/Mar and see waht consumer confidence is like after Repubs take control of the House and come out with some legislation. This is no time to panic with change coming right around the corner.
As soon as elections are over, the Tea Party and the GOP need to put the Fed in it’s crosshairs and end this garbage once and for all. End the Fed!
Report Post »jacobstroubles
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:03amExciting fun this week!
Report Post »snowleopard3200 {mix art}
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:29amYes it will be exciting, we hopefully get to see the Progressives agenda and Mr Obama’s agenda come to an ending, and during this final two month gap they hold the power, anything goes for them in one grand old suicide sweep.
Just have to make sure they do not take us with it.
Report Post »snowleopard3200 {mix art}
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:46am@The Blazers
Got an idea, why does not someone send Mr Obama and each member of congress a copy of the new Glenn Beck book “Broke.” Have started reading a copy of it from my friends, wonderful so far, and it may do some good.
Also be sure to mention “Read the book, it will take guts to read the book…”
Report Post »oldoldtimer
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 9:49amWhat the Fed is doing is illegal!!! To make it “legal” they are buying the debt through a third party. The end is near. This will destroy the dollar. China has already said what they will do with the dollars they hold if the Fed monatizes the debt. Our biggest creditor will cut us off. They have no choice if their economy is to survive. The price of every thing will jump over night while your wages stay the same. We will become a third world county almost over night. Are you ready for $10 a gal gas? $4 loaf of bread? How about $2 for a Coke? NO NATIONS ECONOMY HAS SURVIVED MONATIZING THE DEBT! ABSOLUTELY NONE! They know this. It is a way of destroying the country so they can take control. I only hope you have a good supply of food and ammo. You will need it unless you are willing to become a slave to the Gov’t of Obama. Wonder why they are waiting until the 3rd of Nov? To see if the Dems stay in power they will not do it.
Report Post »Promotefreedom
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:16amBerenke is taking a page from Barney Frank in “rolling the dice.”
OldOldTimer: Forget about $10/gal gas; THERE WILL BE NO GAS, OR FOOD, OR ANYTHING except cities on fire and fighting in the streets. Governments bonds WILL collapse and currency WILL become worthless. Hyperinflation is around the corner. Buckle you seatbelt. Unless of course your car is flipped over and on fire.
Report Post »dressseller
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:17amIt’s unbelievable what the Fed is doing. The Fed is an unconstitutional enterprise. They definitely don’t have the interests of the American citizen at heart. Hyperinflation…. here we come.
If you haven’t already seen it… watch this video on the destruction of our liberty ..largely thanks to the Federal Reserve and our DC politicians.
http://inflation.us/videos.html
Report Post »GOTT-EM-MAUSER
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 10:45am@ OLDOLDTIMER,
From another OLDOLDTIMER:
Your dead on the money, “PUN INTENDED” The ENTIRE Federal Reserve System is and has always been, nothing more than a HUGE PYRAMID SCHEME to benefit the “International Bankers”. I call them the “Money Jews” but that‘s not PC so I won’t use it here.
Their plan has been in play since it started 100 yrs ago. Henry Ford and many others tried to expose it, but were silenced by whatever means that were required. So now we have the “End Game” becoming apparent to even the MOST PC MORONS out there. The U.S. Federal Reserve Note is backed by absolutely NOTHING. You CAN NOT REDEEM them at any Government Office, anywhere, for ANYTHING, other than another piece of worthless paper, T Bills etc. And ONLY so long as someone else will accept them in exchange for real assets, will they be worth anything to anybody. The “Full Faith and Credit” of the United States Government is about to find it’s TRUE VALUE. “ZERO”
EVERY AMERICAN is a SLAVE now, to the “International Bankers” INDENTURED into ETERNAL SERVITUDE by our DEBT to THEM, in exchange for all the PHONY MONEY THEY HAVE PRINTED, and then LOANED us. This election, matter not which way it goes, will NOT change a single thing with respect to this.
UNLESS and UNTIL, we hang every one of these “International Bankers” and the Politicians that have given them their POWER over us, we will remain SCREWED. So those that want to go Quietly into their Goodnight, by all means do so. But, many of us won’t, and those that make that decision should be ready to grow your own food, and repel boarders that will come to take from you “What THEY are ENTITLED to”
JoeNY
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 11:21amI’m excited, but quite nervous. WIth the monitizing of the debt, the end of 99wks of unemployment insurance, cuts to social programs, etc. coming up I think we are headed into a very dangerous time. I think the democrats will immediately give ownership over to the Republicans(while fighting “trench warfare” per the President) for all of the problems that come up fast. They will immediately villify conservatism and say that tea party ignorance caused all of the problems. We will then have to face that they will attempt to rally anyone/everyone to overthrough the Republicans. This might lead to the reelection of Obama and the reinstatement of democratic control. YIKES! God help our country…… we need it.
Report Post »Paradigmm
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 11:38amGott-em
While you are correct about the FED being a pyramid scheme but you’re wrong about who owns it and where the actual power lies. Most of the owners of the FED are European (Rothschild, Morgan and the like). To see the history of the FED, IRS, IMF and more, watch this video.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936#
Also note that it is not the politicians who gave the bankers their power but the other way around. It has been this way since before the FED came to be. You may want to research the Presidental election leading up to the addition of the sixteenth amendment to our constitution. What you will find is that the “Establishment” the “money masters” the “bankers” rigged that election in order to put a FED friendly president in power to get the FED its charter to begin with.
You will see how the “establishment” which also includes the “media” (ALL MEDIA!) helped in the enslavement of the country. And they are still doing it today. Let me say that again, “corporate owned media (NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX) is not only aware of it but is covering up this deception. Yes, even your beloved Glenn Beck and the network he is on are in on it (Want to buy some gold?).
Take the time to watch the video, and then spread the word, it’s not the Dem’s or the Rep’s that we should be angry at (actually they are and have been working together for some time). The media is deceiving and distracting us (because that’s their job in this) from the real troubles we face. While they are dividing us with all these petty differences “they” are stealing the world.
As for presidents, THEY ARE ALL PUPPETS! Not just Obama, but going all the way back to 1913 and beyond. Do your own research and find this fact out for yourself. If I tell you, you won’t believe it so find out for yourself.
Report Post »bobby535
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 12:01pmI just went to vote, and was disappointed, the polling place was dead. I was hoping to at least have to stand in a line of some sort. Go Vote!!!!
Report Post »just the facts
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 12:32pmI can agree with you all on this. In essence, what we all agree on is that things will get worse for the households. We really haven’t seen anything yet. Money will tighten up. inflation will happen; gas, food, trinkets all will go up.
Report Post »Beckofile
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 12:48pmI am from Colorado and have dreamed of adding a sign to the bottom of the stimulus road signs that says, “And Payed For With Your Childs Credit Card” This is lunacy.
Report Post »Polwatcher
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 1:31pmHere we go again. Richard Nixon (also a liberal) did this in the 1974 time frame and by 1976 everything doubled in price. Then the stagflation started. The Fed is crazy.
Report Post »tower7femacamp
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 6:20pmThe crime of wall st and the Federal Reserve (private) banking system
Report Post »crosses political lines Hank Paulson was a Republican !!!!
Robert Rubin was the godfather of wall st crime
and now we have Tiny Tim Geitner a Hanky Pankie want to be.
I Guarantee these CRIMINALS WILL NEVER BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE !
NEVER NEVER NEVER !!!! you vote is worthless, the healthcare bill is here to stay just like SSI
tower7femacamp
Posted on November 2, 2010 at 6:46pmdid you see they are going back to jekyll island for the 100 yr anniversary ?
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/11/fed-at-jekyll-island-theyre-baaack.html
Report Post »The Federal Reserve is a Private banking system with a part owner being the Bank of England
JFK and Andrew Jackson tried to fight them.