The 2012 Drought Will Hit Your Wallet, But Not for the Reasons You May Think — Washington May Be More to Blame
- Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:04am by
Becket Adams
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As American farmers continue to battle one of the worst droughts in modern U.S. history, food commodity prices are on the rise, which will mean skyrocketing prices at the grocery store, right?
Not necessarily.
Any pain in the wallet for consumers won’t come directly from higher costs for raw commodities. It’ll be because of federal ethanol mandates — specifically the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act, which, as The Washington Examiner’s Conn Carroll notes, requires that every gallon of gas contain 10 percent ethanol by 2022.
Here’s the problem: Corn has increased in value because it has decreased in supply. This means ethanol, which is corn-based, will become more expensive to produce. But fuel providers need to have that ethanol mixed with their product. Therefore, the federal mandate leaves fuel providers with no choice but to increase their prices so that they can afford to stay compliant.
You know what this means, right? It means the cost of bringing goods (i.e. food, clothes, TVs, radio, etc.) to market will increase exponentially and this is where U.S. consumers will get hit. Unless merchants charge a price that offsets what it costs them to bring their goods to consumers, they’ll post a loss. Therefore, they’ll have to increase the cost of product to make up the difference, which means consumers end up paying higher prices.
That‘s why there’s a war raging in Washington over the ethanol mandate as it relates to the damage done to corn crops by the drought.
On one hand, you have proponents of ethanol mandate arguing that it should remain in place because it’ll make the whole world clean (or something). On the other hand, you have various groups, such as U.S. ranchers, arguing for an easing of the mandate because it will help bring down both the price of corn (ranchers benefit) and fuel (pretty much everyone benefits).
But let’s start with the increase in raw commodities:
Courtesy Zero Hedge
The U.S. Agriculture Department has twice slashed its forecast for this year’s corn and soybean output because of the drought and now expects the nation to produce 10.8 billion bushels of corn, the lowest amount since 2006.
“If that estimate holds, the federal government says it will be enough to meet the world’s needs and avoid shortages, but experts say food prices will almost certainly climb as corn is an ingredient in many products,” the AP reports.
Add to that the fact that the USDA last week estimated that “50 percent of the corn crop was in poor or very poor condition, compared to 15 percent at the same time last year,” according to france24.com, and the fact that 39 percent of this year’s soybean crop is in poor condition or worse and you start to get an idea of how bad the supply lines have been hit.
But wait! That’s not all: “The drought has also hit feeds for livestock like hay, forcing ranchers to trim their herds, which analysts expect could push up the price of meat in the coming year.”
This means we’ll all end up paying much, much more for groceries, right? Well, according to United States Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, poor harvest output resulting in an increase in commodity prices doesn’t necessarily dictate the price you pay for food.
“While commodity prices are rising, they have very little impact on the prices folks pay at the grocery store. Other factors such as energy and transportation costs comprise 86 percent of the food cost at the retail level, while raw commodities make up only about 14 percent [emphasis added],” he writes for CNBC.
“In other words, even if every commodity (whole beef cattle, bushels of corn, tons of butter, etc.) doubled in price tomorrow, food prices would increase by just 14 percent. And that won’t happen,” he writes, adding that the feds expect, if anything, food price inflation to rise by only 1 percent above the historic average (2.5 — 3 percent) in 2013.
Therefore, if the drought hits U.S. consumers, it won’t be because of a rise in commodities. It will be because of the cost of the EPA’s ethanol mandate.
“Corn, an ever-present ingredient in food and a major source of feed for cattle and chicken … makes up a sizable and growing share of U.S. transportation fuels,” MarketWatch reports.
“Under the 2005 U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, a certain volume of the nation’s transportation fuel must be blended with such nonfossil fuels as ethanol, which is distilled primarily from corn. This year’s ethanol requirement is 13.2 billion gallons, up from 12.6 billion gallons in 2011. That figure is set to grow to 13.8 billion gallons in 2013,” the report adds.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack gestures as he speaks to a rural community forum in El Reno, Okla., Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2009. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
So, let’s do a quick recap: The price of corn has gone up as its supply has gone down. Because of the rise in the price of corn, the cost of producing ethanol has risen. Fuel providers need ethanol in order to remain in good standing with the EPA, meaning the cost of fuel will rise with the cost of ethanol. If fuel goes up, then so too does the cost of bringing goods to market, which, unless the feds ease mandate requirements, will be the real reason consumers end up paying more.
As of this writing, the EPA is contemplating whether it should ease up the mandates.
“Congress has … given EPA the authority to … grant a full or partial waiver if implementation would severely harm the economy or environment of a state, region, or the entire country, or if EPA determines that there is inadequate domestic supply of renewable fuel,” the EPA said in a statement. “EPA and its federal partners continue to closely monitor the drought’s impacts on crop supplies.”
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The Associated Press contributed to this report. Front page photo courtesy the AP.



















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Comments (61)
RAMJR
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:38pmFood shortages & famines have been part and parcel of the human experience since time began. Food shortages & hunger have been foreign concepts to most. Even the poorest among us have much more than the poor of other countries. In order to prepare for the looming food shortage coming, we must look at the past. Only through studying the past, do we begin to see those same patterns emerging. The fall of the Roman Empire produced a famine which reduced the population of the city of Rome by 90% over a 400-year period. The Roman government spent more than it could afford, the military was over-extended, corrupt leaders overtook the seats of government & was plagued with infighting and sources that wanted Rome to fall, from the inside. Politicians & courts, replaced farmers, to the point only about 2% of the population could/knew how to work the land. The results were riots from the food shortage, that could have been avoided. This was Rome, but is a mirror for a warning to all of us. The only thing Rome didn’t have, was the manipulation of food for fuel, genetically manipulation of seeds to produce nutrient deficient crops, chemical pesticides, herbicides…add droughts worldwide where most of our food now comes from. Take cheap sources of energy away, which cause more lack of resources to grow food, limit water with ‘environmentalists’ in the new EPA, with hundreds of new restrictions…then don’t address the problems. Create more. You have HOPE & CHANGE!
Report Post »Mil Mom
Posted on August 25, 2012 at 7:58pmThis has been part of the UN, geo. soros agenda for years, there are mandates that EVERY nation use a portion of their most prevalent food crop for Ethanol production to combat global warming. In some South American countries it’s sugar beets, in others it’s bananas, in some Asian countries it’s rice. The true agenda is to bring on a global food shortage to mandate their goal of population reduction!
Report Post »You think the article covers it, remember there is a drought and the farmers already can’t afford corn for their livestock. Now remember there will still be mandated corn for ethanol and see if anyone but the white house can afford steaks, (how about hamburger, or roast? and don’t forget they feed corn to chickens and turkeys, and it’s illegal to hunt wild game in most states out of season, to feed your family.)
jwt
Posted on August 25, 2012 at 11:14pmcorn dd not double. the price has almost gone up 4 times. It will have amuch greater effect than stated
Report Post »universalphilos
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 9:27pmIn 1970, we were guided in prophecy to begin storing for the famine. Suggestions were given that were known to people at that time. Now we can also buy freeze-dried and dehydrated foods that may last up to 25 years, as well as stock up on cans and other things as suggested. The famine had first been prophesied the month before, as this prophetic gift was given.
May 1, 1970: “[ ] asked about some information on the storing of food in preparation for the famine.”
“Yes, this should be done. But in thy preparation, store seed, store it preferably in airtight containers, that no air may enter. If possible, the pumping out of any air in the container as these stores are made would be good. But, it would also be suggested that this should not be done as, as you would say, a rush thing. Store a little, as thy can afford it. Store also, in containers, no flour. Store either rice or corn. This also, if possible, the air should be taken from the containers that it is stored in. The preparing of certain fruits and vegetables, as thy call it, either in canned goods – yes — more information shall be given to you from time to time.”
“All right.”
“Also, it would be suggested that thy should get a script of thy known herbs of that location.”
“What location?”
“The one around thee of both the desert and the high land, preferably the high land. This will be safer in the days of famine.”
“All right. What will cause this famine?”
“Man shall cause t
Report Post »Beefeater
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 8:28pmOK, its time to beat up ethanol again. Ethanol adds over 13 billion gallons to our motor fuel supply. Increased supply drives gas prices down. Unleaded would be as much as $1 high without ethanol. Ethanol boosts octane, which allows refiners to produce a cheaper lower octane gas and raise the octane with ethanol. Nascar loves ethanol.
Report Post »No one mentioned distiller’s grain, the high protein feed we produce in addition to ethanol. Ethanol production uses the starch and leaves the rest. Yes, we compete with the livestock producers for corn, but we need a healthy livestock sector to use the distillers grain. Cattle feeders love distillers grain.
We also extract corn oil for use in biodiesel.
Ethanol demand for corn has cause farmers to grow more corn, lots more. This year’s production, in spite of the drought is still in the top ten.
Higher corn prices will cause all users, including ethanol produces, to cut back.
I just wish reporters would talk to someone who knows the industry before they hang us out to dry.
MN NICE
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 12:56pm“In other words, even if every commodity (whole beef cattle, bushels of corn, tons of butter, etc.) doubled in price tomorrow, food prices would increase by just 14 percent. And that won’t happen,” he writes, adding that the feds expect, if anything, food price inflation to rise by only 1 percent above the historic average (2.5 — 3 percent) in 2013.
Evidently none of the “feds” shop for groceries or fill up at the neighborhood pumps…
Report Post »stumpy68
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 2:33pmproduce alone has gone up 20% in the last 1.5 years around here.
Report Post »thegreatcarnac
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 12:49pmEverything Washington d.c. attempts to do falls into complete disarray. They don’t have a real energy policy. They are too paid off by the Saudis and others to vote for using more of our own resources. They use the excuse that our energy sources will destroy our environment…..so we have to buy from the Arabs forever. Now they try to use corn to make ethanol that will be added to our gasoline to (supposedly) stretch out our gasoline and a drought kills their whole scheme. They go to stupid extremes to avoid using our own resources and risk the ire of the Saudis and lose their bribe checks.
Report Post »Walkabout
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 12:43pmSo few comments on such a straight forward policy. It is pretty obvious what the solution is. Instead people will decide the election on topics like Republicans poison the air & food costs too much because of evil Republicans. The environmentalists are not for this.
Report Post »PapaJohannesPatriot
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:57amTime to end the ethanol lie. Undiluted gasoline will produce better gas mileage at a lower price per mile. God gave us corn for food, not fuel. Ethanol is not better for the environment.
Report Post »Walkabout
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 12:21pm“It’ll be because of federal ethanol mandates”
1. Ethanol uses up 40% of the corn crop.
2. The news ethanol mandates will increase the amount of corn used for ethanol by 50%. So 60% of corn crop.
3. America accounts for 60% of world wide corn exports.
4. China. Russia, & various another countries (& the United Nations) have asked the Obama administration & the GREEN WARRIORS not to do this.
5. Obama want the Iowa electoral votes so he will enforce the mandate. Romney on principle should be against the new mandate.
6. Expect more unrest in various countries by hungry people. The Muslim Brotherhood will have problems with unrest by hungry people. Which way will they take out? Devaluation, Economic liberation? War?
Obama & supporters/voters are laying the foundation for War? You know who you are!
Encinom, Monicne, JZS, BestPatriot, AmericanPatriot101, Wango, MarybetheElizabeth
Report Post »Sandra
Posted on August 25, 2012 at 10:18amOpinion.—–My generation was told that corn has no nutritonal value for man, yet today it is used to make everything we consume. Consider the fatness of the current generations who consume the fattening corn products.—- Ethonol ruins parts in cars.—- Sure don’t like having to buy a new car every 8 years.—-Genetically altered seeds make for poor nutrition. They don’t produce a crop the next year. We will all starve without seeds that reproduce. So why was my generation told that corn was made for animal feed? Beef no longer has a good taste, because animals are not being fed the grains needed for growth.
Report Post »The_Jerk
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:52amInflation is the culprit. Devaluing our currency.
Report Post »GERATMO
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:09amThe Ethanol mandate makes no sense since it costs almost as much in fuel to produce it as you get out of it. This is a new but outdated regulation that needs a second glance.
Report Post »RetiredAmericanNavyTaxpayer
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:35pmAll part of the Master Plan. Take big bites out of the economy with Stimulus packages and small bites out with things like the ethanol mandate.
NOBAMA
Report Post »**2012**
flynlownslo
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:05amFirst, I am completely on board with Anthropogenic Global Warming being a progressive scam. I also believe that the Ethanol mandate should be eliminated. I can see the price of food going up due to the competition between food and ethanol producers for a greatly reduced corn crop this year. What I don’t get is the articles statement that “If fuel goes up, then so too does the cost of bringing goods to market, which, unless the feds ease mandate requirements, will be the real reason consumers end up paying more.” The fuel that brings food to market whether at the production end (tractors, harvesters, combines and such) or at the supply chain end (big trucks) is almost exclusively diesel fuel. No Ethanol. Perhaps I misunderstood the authors point, but if not, in order to win this issue I feel we should try to make our arguments logically and factually consistent.
Report Post »stumpy68
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 2:37pmIf gasoline prices rise do you believe diesel prices wont keep pace??
Report Post »Mil Mom
Posted on August 25, 2012 at 8:39pm@flynlownslo
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:05am
First, I am completely on board with Anthropogenic Global Warming being a progressive scam. I also believe that the Ethanol mandate should be eliminated. I can see the price of food going up due to the competition between food and ethanol producers for a greatly reduced corn crop this year. What I don’t get is the articles statement that “If fuel goes up, then so too does the cost of bringing goods to market, which, unless the feds ease mandate requirements, will be the real reason consumers end up paying more.” The fuel that brings food to market whether at the production end (tractors, harvesters, combines and such) or at the supply chain end (big trucks) is almost exclusively diesel fuel. No Ethanol. Perhaps I misunderstood the authors point, but if not, in order to win this issue I feel we should try to make our arguments logically and factually consistent
Report Post »****
I’ll admit straight off, I‘m not a real authority on what is or isn’t used to make Diesel, BUT, I am the wife of a retired farmer, and still read as much as I can about farming. Some one give me some help please? What does the term “BIO-DIESEL” mean and why is it always alluding to the corn and soy crops when used in farm magazines? Does anyone know how it’s made?
Carol1955
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:03amfirst, I favor removing Ethanol mandates; however, we live in a major corn producing region, where there are both feedlots and ethanol plants. Corn prices rose by maybe a dime because of the ethanol plants. The ethanol plants remove the alcohol and sell the byproduct to the feed lots with over 80% the food value remaining, It is called distiller’s grain. It is not an all or nothing, fuel or food choice. The vast majority of our corn still goes to the feed lots.
Report Post »mizzouwendy
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 12:40pmI know nobody will listen, but Feedstuffs (a weekly agribusiness newspaper) came out less than a month ago, with a report that corn users are responding to market signals, “ethanol production and exports are down. In addition, there is currently an ethanol SURPLUS in the US that will further reduce demand on the 2012 corn crop.” GAS PRICES are up and people are DRIVING LESS. If you all remember ethanol replaced MTBE, which was being found in water supplies (it is petroleum based). Currently, one bushel of corn (56 lbs.) can create 3 to 4 gallons of ethanol (depending on the variety of corn and the newness of the ethanol plant), 17 to 20 lbs of distillers grains which is fed to livestock and CO2, which is burned off or sold. My father has combined one field here in Missouri that was drought stricken……..it yielded 75 bushels an acre (about 50% of normal). So that one acre could produce 263 gallons of ethanol, 1275 lbs. of distillers and several pounds of CO2. Even factoring in the diesel fuel to plant, fertilize, harvest and haul it to the plant, I’m not sure that it would take 263 gallons of fuel and fertilizer and natural gas to convert corn to ethanol and actually some plants are now using methane gas from cow poop to power these plants. Anyway I hope this helps educate some folks. It takes a lot of energy to produce petroleum products as well to get to our cars and trucks and I like a lot of folks think that tax subisdies are not the answer for ANY energy.
Report Post »pap pap
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:02amThe government should just stay out of our lives and the market would work out things by itself.
That is the attitude that needs to be incorporated into our congress instead of this whatever it takes to get re-elected BS.
Report Post »JAMACAMECRAZYMAN
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:59amEthanol ruins your engine. Crystallizes on the cylinder head………………
Report Post »thegreatcarnac
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 12:36pmYes it does. Newer cars are better able to deal with ethynol but eventually it gets to them also.
Report Post »LovinUSA
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:50amWashington is not to be blamed, it is the people in OUR government on BOTH sides of the isle is who WE BLAME……
Report Post »shammo
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:43amJust goes to show how politicians of both parties can spend the people’s money to garner political gain. Ethanol in fuel is a major source of pollution. CA has unique fuel blends to fight pollution but is mandated to put at least 10% ethanol in the product. There is no logic in this. We have peanut subsidies, sugar subsidies and all sorts of this and that!!! We need a remake.
Report Post »txannie
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:42am@gonzo…why is it that bill clinton can walk around with the t-shirt saying “it’s the economy, stupid” when running against Bush Sr. and it’s a good thing, but when Romny/Ryan says it about obama it’s a bad thing? And when you try to go to the blame game of ‘it’s Bushes fault’, it won’t work any more. Even an idiot with one eye and half a brain can see that obama is just making it all worse than when he started. Wait,…you do have two eyes and a whole brain….right….or am I wasting my breath on an interent troll?
Report Post »Gonzo
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:50amYou think I am a defender of Obama? LOL You better check your own eyes and brain.
Report Post »txannie
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:03amHeres‘ hoping you’re not a troll. As for me….yep, 2 eyes, whole brain but really tired of internet trolls. Guess I’ll just have to quit feeding them…..
Report Post »Gonzo
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:13amWhat was it I said that you disagree with so vehemently?
Report Post »MN NICE
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 12:44pmGonzo – I must have missed when you “flipped” on your opinions of Obama! Thinking txannie thought you were attacking Mitt on your previous comment…
Report Post »Gonzo
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 1:02pmNot at all, just pointing out the hypocrisy of the MSM.
Report Post »txannie
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 1:04pmSorry, I was out feeding the livestock the already expensive feed I have and calling around to see if I can get a shipment of fodder for cheeper than $100.00 per bale and $15.00 per bale extra for diesel because the drought has nearly desimated my pastures and I need to feed throught the winter or sell out. I think what I am really tired of hearing is ANYONE for ANY REASON that cannot get on board to get rid of Obama and his czars. If we can’t come together for the better of our country in spite of not quite caring for the person actually voted into position to run against a proven enemy of the American way of life, we might as well just start prepping for the new world order that this administration is trying to usher in. Yes, I know, you might not like Romney but voting for an independant or not at all is a vote for Obama. Right now, the most important thing is to get rid of obama. THEN we work on reminding the American voters there is more than a 2 party system available to them.
Report Post »txannie
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 1:25pmThe take away from this….Please let me know when the dry humor or sarcasm is turned on and off…I am so blitzed from all my savings bleeding out from this admin and all their regs and trying to keep up with their Agenda 21 crud and losing another very valuable calf to another dumped pitt bull then having to defend my use of deady force on that same dog trying to eat my leg, taking my better half to the hosp for the rabies vaccine every week this last month because of the rabid cat that bit ‘em that someone dumped….I’m on a hair-trigger….
Report Post »Meyvn
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:42amBurning food is asinine.
Report Post »chips1
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:57amThat’s what I keep telling my wife!!!
Report Post »RetiredAmericanNavyTaxpayer
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:27pmLol
NOBAMA
Report Post »**2012**
leasecommander
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:41amYou can all thank Al Gore for the ethanol mandates, he pushed them and then later admitted that he did it for the farmers in Tenn. AND NOT because it is environmentally safe or better. In fact most of the small engines in the US are having considerable trouble with the ethanol mix.
Report Post »Another bunch of political crap that should be undone !!!!!!!!!!!!
Detroit paperboy
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:38amWow I guess I need a Chevy volt……….
Report Post »Mil Mom
Posted on August 25, 2012 at 8:49pm@Detroit paperboy
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:38am
Wow I guess I need a Chevy volt…
Report Post »***
I hear there’s an abundance of them. Do they come with a sprinkler system to put out the fire after an accident yet?
warning87
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:38amIf they are going to use ethanol they should use switch grass. Switch grass can be grown cheaply and is more effective then corn. While I don’t like ethanol one bit this is the best option to use if they have to use it.
Report Post »txannie
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:46amThey could even grow sugar beets cheaper than corn. Corn is one of the most water using crops there is and sucks nutrients out of the soil like crazy. For criminy sake, they could just rotate several crops and reach a cheaper ethanol production that doesn’t wreak havok on the economy or environment. But, that would probably be too easy.
Report Post »Mil Mom
Posted on August 25, 2012 at 8:54pm@txannie
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:46am
They could even grow sugar beets cheaper than corn. Corn is one of the most water using crops there is and sucks nutrients out of the soil like crazy. For criminy sake, they could just rotate several crops and reach a cheaper ethanol production that doesn’t wreak havok on the economy or environment. But, that would probably be too easy
Report Post »****
Don‘t forget this is d c bureaucrats you’re talking about. It would probably take 10 years to write the regulations to implement each rotation? We used to ask how many politicians does it take to change a light bulb. pelosi and reid heard it enough they decided we wanted them to change the mandated make-up of the light bulb. Ssssshhhh! Be vewwwwwwyyyy, vewwwwwyyyy caweful what you say, dimwits fwom dc may be listening!!!!
Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:32amOne more reason to end the insanity of Obama and dump the progressives into the sea.
Report Post »Oneirishman
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:42amI hope you mean in the same manner they dumped Osama!
Report Post »wisehiney
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:17amCould’nt happen to obummer at a better time. His stupid policies backfiring on him.
Report Post »RJJinGadsden
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:34amI truly hope that you are right.
Report Post »Oneirishman
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:37amAtttaacckkk Watchhh!
Report Post »Popp40
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:15amDoing all they can to get the price of gas to be “as painful as possible” (remember Obama saying that in April of 2008). Yet you hear nothing from main stream media on this…..
Report Post »Gonzo
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:33amYou’ll hear plenty from the MSM about gas and food prices…after Romney gets elected.
Report Post »watersRpeople
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:14amHmm, high prices will affect liberals, and environmentalists too. As companies cut-back, as inflation hits from farmer bailouts – money flow from liberal’ held trust-funds will become worth less. Everyone will pay much more for fuel, much more for food. People who live in the country who use propane will pay more for propane because it costs more for delivery. It will raise prices across the board – it will cause businesses to go out of business – which will lower tax income for the government, which will decrease the government’s ability to give more bailouts, unless they just want to inflate money more which will cause more of the previously mentioned, a vicious circle of destruction.
Report Post »RANGER1965
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:33am“unless they just want to inflate money more which will cause more of the previously mentioned, a vicious circle of destruction.
What do you mean “unless”? Quantatative Easing is already being recommended by the Fed, and will likely occur again before the election.
Report Post »RayOne
Posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:10amThis is a Green Assault.
Report Post »