The Chart That Shows Just How Wrong Obama’s Stimulus Projections Were
- Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:00pm by
Becket Adams
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Many people ask: What could the government have done better to cushion the blow from the recession? Of course a sizable group would say that the government should have done nothing in the first place, but that is a different article for a different day.
One side of the political aisle argues that pouring billions of dollars into various stimulus schemes was an appropriate response. The other side argues that it was a fruitless waste of taxpayer money.
However, both sides seem to unanimously agree that it’s not so much that the Obama administration dealt poorly with the recession, it’s that they didn’t understand what they were dealing with at all.
The Washington Post has been carrying an interesting story by Ezra Klein that drives this point home. In his article, Klein provides a graph from the president’s Council of Economic Advisers that sought to predict the impact ARRA would have on jobs. There are three elements included in the graph:
- The incoming Obama Administration’s projections for what the unemployment rate would be if no stimulus were enacted in the depths of the financial crisis.
- The Obama Administration‘s projections for what the unemployment rate would be with the President’s stimulus plan.
- The actual unemployment rate.
Image: White House Council Of Economic Advisors and Washington Post
When this report was initially released by Obama’s economic team, it was praised by the left for being thorough and transparent.
“It will be a joy to argue policy with an administration that provides comprehensible, honest reports,” gushed economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times.
However, as the chart makes very clear, the Obama administration really, really underestimated how bad the economy was and overestimated its ability to repair it.
As a result of this, writes Henry Blodget of Business Insider, “President Obama over-promised and under-delivered on the single most important challenge of his Presidency (so far).”
Despite their gross miscalculation, there are still members of the team that crafted the 2009 report that defend the administration’s decision to pump stimulus money into the economy.
“The thing that people who want to argue that the stimulus failed have to deal with,” said Jared Bernstein, a labor economist who was tasked with calculating how many jobs the stimulus would create, “is that if you look at the trajectory of job losses, you will find that right on the heels of the Recovery Act, the rate of job losses began to diminish and then the jobs numbers turned positive. The Recovery Act worked. The problem is we didn’t keep our foot on the accelerator.”
Klein responds:
That’s not the sort of success the president had promised, though. He said the stimulus would “jolt our economy back to life.” In Denver, the site of the 2008 Democratic National Convention, he said that although “this was not the end of our economic problems,” it was “the beginning of the end.”
True, the economy was in bad shape when President Obama took office. But by establishing unrealistic expectations regarding his ability to pull America out of the recession, Obama not only failed to deliver on his promises but also revealed just how wrong (and even uninformed) he and his team were about the state of the economy.
(H/T Business Insider)
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Comments (97)
00gabooga
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 9:43pmCheck out how the actual unemployment rate starts going back up in late 2010 right when they extended unemployment benefits.
Report Post »Kylestarr
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 9:01pmThis just proves that Obama doesn’t have a clue. His first plane failed big time and now he is claiming that he is the only one who knows how to create jobs. That he and he alone has come out with the job plan to save us all and it has to be past NOW and as is.
I am sooooooooo tired of Obama’s holyer then now I am right, I and only I can correct this attitude!!!!!!!
Report Post »jb.kibs
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 9:12pmwhat animal wants to hunt for food when it’s handed to them? answer that.
Report Post »mwhaley
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 9:53pmWe look at this as a negative. Obama looks at this as a positive. We see our future as a promise for prosperity. Obama looks at this as he is on track to make America pay for the wrongs she has done to the rest of the world. 53% of America called for this to happen. What sucks is 47% of us knew his real intention.
Report Post »MGB-CPA
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 12:03amKylestarr … When will people wake up? Doesn’t anyone think for themselves? OBAMA DOESN’T HAVE A CLUE! Bull Manere, He knows exactly what he is doing. Obama keeps doing all of these unimaginable policies and keeps failing to acomplish the goals WE want. He is accomplishing exactly what he and his fellow progressives want. GOD help us, please.
Report Post »banjarmon
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 2:12amBO DoN”T KNOW NOTHING!!!
Report Post »old white guy
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 6:59ami guess a chart really isn’t necessary to understand how obama has screwed things up. what is very hard to understand is why nothing is being done about it.
Report Post »Truthurts
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 8:08amThe little bit of the Stimyouless Package that did not go to money laundering outfits like Solyndra, went to useless public sector jobs. I personally know someone that was lured out of retirement to take a $110k per year job as a consultant. He does virtually nothing. At least there was one job that was shovel ready, even though the shovel was only for leaning. The icing on his cake is that when the money runs out, his pension payments will increase.
Report Post »Bluebonnet
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 10:50amWe keep hearing how so many college kids pay others to take tests for them because they didn’t study enough. Wonder who took tests for Obama? A lot of talk about if he really attended some of these Universities in first place. Bet I am a better economist than most of the guys in government.
Can’t do anything now except PRAY and vote for the right person to get us on the right path again. The best who understand Business are Herman Cain & Romney. Is it too late for even them?
Report Post »cicero1776
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 10:56amHave you noticed how LONG NOBAMA’s NONE HAS GROWN? And, how far down it he has to look to see us since he was elected!!!
Report Post »IndyNWguy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:34pmHuh? So from this chart we‘re to understand that regardless of gov’t action, unemployment was projected to land at 5% midway through 2013?
Are you kidding me? So Obama’s version of “hope” was projected to be as effective as his version of “status quo”?
His way creates trillions in debt only to get us where we would have been with minimal additional debt?
I am amazed everyday there aren’t violent riots in our streets. There is no excuse for this pig or his minions in America. None. And no – I’m not calling for violent riots, thats what the other side does… just watch…
Report Post »piper60
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 9:38pmYou had best hope that there are not riots in the streets. That would be the best excuse for Obama-san and his thugs to heavy handedly quash them. Remember bottom-up, TOP-down, inside out?
Report Post »MaxBaxter
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 9:46pmThis is an excellent point. Even if you believe for a moment that $900B would prevent the unemployment rate from hitting 9%, that splurge of spending was designed not have any positive impact past 2013. Unbelievable. Who with a sane mind would pick such a policy, unless it was all about wealth transfer. Criminal.
Report Post »Profx72
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:17pmOoh, shock & dismay…Keynesian Spending DOESN’T stimulate the economy? Really? Who around here is surprised anymore?!
Report Post »http://www.maverickvoice.com
bernbart
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:02pmIf his stimulus plan had been fully funded it would have met the predictions, but the republicans voted to reduce it. However As is it did reduce the unemployment. And those high numbers in first part of January actually come from jobs losses in 2008.
Report Post »Huguenot Descendant
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:11pmWhat world do you live in? Do unicorns, and dragons live there too?
Seriously how much money do ******** like you need to spend before you are satisfied? Will a complete and total take over of the free markets through government control be enough to suffice your hunger for unsustainable benefits? Quit dreaming, get your lazy butt out of Wall Street with your parents funded laptop/cell phone and start asking what you can do for your country, not what your country can do for you.
Report Post »Huguenot Descendant
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:15pmFunny I didn’t know that “lib tard” was a swear word. Oh well, the statement remains. I guess it would of been easier just to call you a Socialist. ;-)
Report Post »AmericablessGod
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:18pmSo the Obama reelection campaign slogan will be “just think how bad it could have been”!
I can’t see enough clueless fools who would vote for a failure like Obama based on what has not happened under his reign. His accomplishments are abysmal and the economy is far worse than when he was elected.
As CEO of this nation, he deserves to be fired. Where’s Trump when we need him?
Report Post »kraphtsman
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 10:02pmYou are totally naive and economically ignorant if you actually believe the federal government should be allowed to borrow more and tax the private sector economy during a deepening recession, for the stated purpose of doling out trillions to state and federal agencies under the guise of “stimulus”.
The only people who benefited from the last two “stimulus” rip-offs were government workers and big-labor unions. These people are most certainly NOT the American middle class, and they CERTAINLY don‘t deserve any more largess at the rest of America’s expense. The Democrat Party and Obama have PROVEN beyond a shadow of a doubt they have NO IDEA how to turn our weakening economy around… all these calls for more “stimulus” spending are nothing more than their dying attempt to keep their worthless political butts in office.
Report Post »RA0725
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 10:52pmThe Democrats took control of the House and Senate in January 2007. Unemployment started to climb. Obama got elected in November 2008. Unemployment really climbed. The dip in unemployment in 2009 came from the almost 30% increase in the size of government, which is a drain on the economy since those paychecks come from taxes (yes, they pay taxes too but it is with money that came from the private sector). Since that time this country has been losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month, yet the published unemployment rate remains practically unchanged. Explanation: the government just stopped counting people. The private sector is shrinking, therefore the tax base is shrinking. To paraphrase: The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other peoples money.
Report Post »carbonated
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:58pm“actual unemployment rate”?? Not even close. Its much higher than that.
Report Post »ADNIL
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 8:13amThat’s right. No one is counting me. How many others aren’t being counted?
Report Post »capitalismrocks
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:56pmSo if Obama hadn‘t of followed Van Jones’ Communist “Apollo Alliance” Stimulus Bill that they wrote for him and that essentially the Wall St Occupiers are currently complaining about — if Obama hadn’t of meddled in the economy not only would we not be in as much debt as we are, but unemployment would be a lot lower…
So bottom line – Obama made things worse by getting in the way.
Report Post »Apollo Alliance – who wrote the Stimulus Bill – a Communist organization – purposefully damaged our economy
Apollo Alliance – Communists, who are part of the Soros umbrella group – are now taking to the streets to complain about the bailouts that Obama forced the banks to take, that increased out debt and caused high unemployment…
Huguenot Descendant
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:13pmIt‘s funny how right in their own numbers it states that Unemployment would be lower right now if they hadn’t done anything. Proof that government only creates more problems than it fixes.
Report Post »South Philly Boy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:48pmJust a stunt to pay off all his buddies with taxpayers money
Report Post »Leader1776
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:43pmAbsolutely.
So let us fully understand ………….. the stimulus didn’t impact the jobless rate nor pump up the economy. Is that the definition of a failed policy? It would seem so. Obviously, Bush’s fault.
Report Post »kapnkd
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:58pmNot to mention funnel some of the monies back into the DNC coffers!!
Report Post »Slayer
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:36pmDon’t bother printing this chart/graph out on paper for anyone at OWS to comprehend. They’ll just drop blotter on it and cut it into little squares.
Report Post »db321
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:43pmYea but we still have Solyndra – and this Green Company going to help us become less energy dependent on foreign oil. Help me, I’m turning Green and having Nightmares at night about Al Gore is our next Pres.
Report Post »ZengaPA65
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:49pmlol !
Report Post »oldironsides
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:21pmSlayer – that’s funny. Takes me back a few years.
Report Post »RIGEL_ORION
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:25pmThis chart is a perfect example of Liberal insanity. They are the only people in the world who can look at this chart and not see failure.
They actually think this chart demonstrates a failure in not borrowing and spending more.
I’m still waiting for someone in the White House press core to actually call the Administration on their non-stop use of un-provable or unmeasurable quantifiers. “Hope” “Change” “Rich” “Fair Share” “Created or Saved”. Seriously! Their response to this is basically ‘coulda been worse’ without any proof. Yet, not one critical question or story on their fantasyland numbers.
Report Post »Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:44pmHow true, Obama has givne a new definition to political corruption, graft and cronism for all time that is left to the world.
Report Post »http://artinphoenix.com/gallery/grimm (cat folk art)
HKS
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 8:03pmSlush fund builder. Private stash that you hear about.
Report Post »amuzed_right_guy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:18pmThe Democrat big government idiots remain breathtakingly clueless. Every action they take, every measure they pass, every bill they create makes our economy worse. The government needs to get out of the way and leave businesses alone…only then will our eonomy take off. All the new regulations, Obamacare, the financial services regulation, new draconican EPA regulations, government mandates…ad infinitum, ad nauseum. We will never recover as long as Obama dictacts his fascist policies and preaches his doctrine of rascism and class warfare. Who in their right mind would invest or grow their business with these thuggish thieves demanding that the government steal more money from productive taxpayers to redistribute to parasites who keep these mental midgets in power?
Report Post »commonsenseguy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:28pmwe know this, but the umber left democommies, think they know what is best, i.e. pelosi,reid.
Report Post »mad_hatter
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:34pmAlso on the Washington Post, the Fact Checker labelled Obama as the most deceptive presidential candidate in the 2012 race. ( Linked on http://www.americanparchment.com ) He has received the most Pinocchios from the Fact Checker.
Report Post »RIGEL_ORION
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 7:29pmThat’s not even the worst part. The worst part is that he doesn‘t care that he’s telling bald faced lies. His Administration thinks we are all so stupid that if he just tells the same lie long enough, we’ll eventually believe its the truth.
Report Post »tnturner
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:13pmMissed it by thisssssssss much.
Report Post »tinydd
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:20pmIf you zoom WAY OUT, it doesn’t look that bad. On the other hand, the Unions were well paid for their 2008 election donations and that‘s what’s important to the people.
Report Post »commonsenseguy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:10pmdoes anyone one want to hear a joke??? to bad , obama is now more of a center president than anyone even knew, now that’s funny. when i heard this earlier i almost wrecked laughing so hard, this is the same president that could not stand up straight if he was laying down,
Report Post »Cat
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:06pmWait just a minute here!
Report Post »Can’t ANYONE see the socialists are using our tax dollars in a grand money-laundering scheme?
What the hell do projections have to do with Barry Soetoro?
He doesn’t give a crap about projections!
He’s vested in getting reelected using OUR money, so he can become king!
If 15 million people quit paying income taxes, half of the government would walk away and blame everyone else for screwing it up!
Bullwinkle
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:15pmExactly right! This just shows that he’s not getting things done as quickly as he wanted. Too many people opposing his plans. Sadly, he‘s set in motion a deadly downward spiral that we’re not going to be able to recover from. All of the so-called opposition is simply trying to do the same thing in a different way.
Report Post »Walkabout
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:26pmYup, money laundering.
Solyndra was a money laundering scheme as many people pointed out. The liberal political operatives get a big paycheck, kick back some money as donations & pocket the rest. They need a huge salary as money laundering is hard work.
How can set up a company that sells a product for 50% of what it costs to make it?
Report Post »Blessed 2 B American
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 9:10pmWhen you realize BHO is out to destroy America; everything his regime has done and is going to do makes sense!
Report Post »wildwood
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:01pmWhat hasn’t he screwed up, the whole nation and over seas!!!!! and we though Jimmy Carter was a flop!!!! Obama is a FLIP flop and then a flop flip!!!. he IS JUST BLUFFY FROM DAY TO DAY , CAN’T KEEP HIS HEAD OUT OF THE WATER!!!
Report Post »axel@25
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:00pmHas anyone ever made a clear and concise explaination of just where all those several trillion bucks went that resulted in a mere hand full of jobs? I haven’t noticed an additional 500 or so multi-billionaires on Forbes list this year…probably decided to move to Bermuda to avoid paying taxes on it.
Solydra recieved Almost $600,000,000 for 1500 jobs and blew the cash in 6 months (that’s 400,000/ six month job) I realize they didn’t pay their workers $400k for 6 months work so,,,there should be about 500 million in assets somewhere…??
Report Post »BetterDays
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:00pmI’ve got a stimulus for Obama, it‘s the forward impitis he’ll get to leave Washington when I help vote him OUT !
Report Post »I’m willing to bet that of the 4.5 billion JUST approved for “ green energy ” that 80% of that went to companies that have ” Obama, liberal, democratic ” ties.
This administrations so corrupt, that the definition needs to be changed to properly reflect the debacle in defrauding Obama has foisted off upon us.
ADNIL
Posted on October 11, 2011 at 8:06amI keep fantasizing BO and his wife comming home from a (fantastically expensive vacation somewhere) to the white house and finding the doors locked and all of their stuff outside in a pile, in the rain.
Report Post »garclar
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:57pmDoes anyone have a memory here on this at all? Do you remember when Hillary Clinton said that it is time to take advantage of the recession to do what they want to get done. Well what did they actually do? They passed Obama-care that has stifled the economy because no on wants to hire if they have to provide expensive health insurance. They have put muzzling legislation on business that makes it hard to expand, no hiring going on here either. They pumped billions into green energy for which Solandra is a perfect example of what can and did go wrong. Went bankrupt, jobs lost here. They shut down the oil industry in the gulf where thousands of jobs could have been created, no jobs here. Obama bragged that there were thousands of jobs that were shovel ready, if only the states could have the stimulus passed. Later said that was not true. No jobs created here. So who is kidding who here. This food stamp president is a charlatan and a liar, need I say more….
Report Post »commonsenseguy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:04pmand a communist,george soros,big business,union lover
Report Post »commonsenseguy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:55pmis that the foot on the accelerator that is on the throats of america ,is it the same foot that has time and time again been used to step on opponents throats that sure like to use that foot on something analogy.
Report Post »chips1
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:53pmWhen the gap gets as large as Obama’s ears, we are in deep doo-doo.
Report Post »TheSitRep
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:52pmAnd you have to also consider that the 9.1 they brag about is a complete lie.
I bet the real number is 15% and U6 is 35%
Report Post »wethepublic
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:51pmLike he calls the shots in the White House. Mr. Speak to all your enemies has us in how many wars now? Learn what’s really going on
Report Post »http://BiggestCoverUp.blogspot.com/
olddog
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:50pmNo one cares about the graph, Littlie BO aint gonna be re-elected simply because America does not want communism that barack husein is forcing on us..
Report Post »teapartyrocker
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:49pmWhere did all of the stimulus money go? Thats right!…Mostly into the pockets of Obamas friends and campaign contributors like Pelosis Husbands company and Unions, Unions, Unions!
Report Post »commonsenseguy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:02pmi wonder if we can get a chart showing how much it cost to make this chart and compare it to lady obamas food chart,i wonder if the same company made both charts, obama is trying to keep his buddies businesses open,but no one else’s
Report Post »Walkabout
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:45pmYou can judge how well a person knows something by how well they can model it. The “goodness of fit” between the Obama‘s administration’s economic model & reality is not good at all. His administration has no clue what are the factors that make the economy work & how the interact.
But why would Obama know anything about modeling? He is a lawyer & lawyers don’t need to know anything about economics, accounting, mathematics or science. I can see Obama as child with a Ken Doll & the doll says “Math is hard” whenever Obama pulled the string.
We be better off with lawyer that had to learn a discipline other than lawyering such as a patent lawyer.
Report Post »Coyote1953
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:59pmObama had no experience as a lawyer, he’s always been a “community organizer”. His only experience has been intimidate, blackmail, thuggery and stirring up mob support.
Now he’s stirring up a nation to riot.
We are experiencing Obama’s forte.
Report Post »Walkabout
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:20pm“The goodness of fit of a statistical model describes how well it fits a set of observations.”
wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodness_of_fit
Their economic model describes economic reality extremely poorly; yet they persist.
Report Post »SpankDaMonkey
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:34pm.
Report Post »Most of us don‘t need a chart to know we’re screwed………..
chazman
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:43pm… Charts! Charts! Cut a fart! Blew the whole machine apart! Yeaaa! Huh?
Report Post »Marengo Ohio Patriot
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:46pmain’t that the truth!!
Report Post »Gzeee1969
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:49pmSo True you Monkey Spanker, so true!
Report Post »Marengo Ohio Patriot
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:54pmhaha, monkey spanker…. now that’s funny!
Report Post »commonsenseguy
Posted on October 10, 2011 at 5:59pmi will have to have a stimulus loan to make a chart showing “”“spankdamonkeys””" chart i would like that today please.it is critical that we know that we are screwed, can any one draw america being screwed,i can’t draw, but i can hold the money,and yes spankdamonkey,i will redistribute some of it your way,after all it was your idea.
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