Politics

The ‘Convention Bounce’ – What Is It? Does It Determine Who Wins?

Is it all about “the bounce?”

Of course we are referring to the post-convention bounce in the polls typically seen immediately after the convention closes. Do political parties and presidential candidates really benefit from three days of speeches and rallies? The Republicans should know the answer to that question a week from today, and the Democrats will find out on September 9th — the Sunday after they wrap up in Charlotte.

One the eve of the GOP National convention in Tampa, many in the news media are speculating about the size of the “bounce” in Mitt Romney’s poll numbers after he is officially nominated by the Republicans, accepts that nomination, and delivers his speech to close the convention on Thursday night.

Of course there are statistics to support just about any theory you might want to offer on behalf of either candidate, no matter how big or how small their bounce.

Gerhard Peters and John Wolley of the American Presidency Project studied the last 12 presidential conventions, each candidate’s bounce, and the results of the November elections.

From 1964 to 2008:

Six of the bounce winners went on win the White House

Five of the bounce winners LOST the election.

And in closest presidential election in American history, the 2000 Bush and Gore tied — both men generated an 8% post convention bounce in the polls.

Romney or Obama Which one will get the biggest convention bounce?

Fox News spoke with research guru Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, about post-convention bounces. Sabato thinks the fact that Romney and Ryan are relative unknowns compared to President Obama has the potential to create a bigger than normal bounce for the GOP. However, the three major broadcast networks are significantly cutting back their coverage of both the Democrats and Republicans.

Will these “three-day informercials” prove to be winners for both Romney and Obama? Or will one candidate see a huge spike like Bill Clinton’s 16% jump in 1992. Or could someone have a “John Kerry” negative bounce? We’ll know for certain next Sunday for Romney and the following week for Obama.

Stay tuned.
 

Comments (23)

  • Wango
    Posted on August 27, 2012 at 11:52am

    The Convention Bounce is the same as the Veep bounce for Republicans this year – non existent.

    Report Post » Wango  
  • John 3:16
    Posted on August 27, 2012 at 11:12am

    Mittens Romney and His attorneys are attempting to re-write Republican establishment rules on platform adoption, to control and limit any grassroots power in setting the party’s platform. This is just more removal of power from “we the people” to decide our platform. Don’t allow the John McCains AKA: RINOs to decide our platform. This is how the democrats treat their sheep too. The establishment wants to be the ranchers and they want you to be the cattle by force.Please call your State Republican headquarters and tell them to leave the original platform adoption procedures alone.We do not want these people deciding our platform or we will be screwed again. Call now and resist or be the sheep they want to control.

    Report Post » John 3:16  
  • FuturePresident
    Posted on August 27, 2012 at 9:14am

    Anyone who is voting for Mitt Romney listen up. He is a wolf in sheeps clothing. Mitt will just tow the line and we all know it and thats the Republican ticket “It’s better the 4 more years!”. If you are voting for Obama do a little research, cause i don’t know where to start on that one. Plus we all know elections can be rigged.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7R1_ixtlyc
    And the electoral system isn’t either.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBx__69pkpY

    Report Post » FuturePresident  
  • scion88
    Posted on August 27, 2012 at 2:38am

      The American Paradigm

    America you’re addicted to a lie
    So hopelessly afflicted that soon you’ll die
    Still you keep going back to it time after time
    You’re drunk on the American paradigm

    So blind and in desperate need of an intervention
    Your intoxicated mind can only think in one dimension
    Brainwashed and controlled it’s far beyond a crime
    You’re drunk on the American paradigm

    In a cesspool of propaganda you’re marinating 
    Floating with all the left-right fools bloviating 
    Fixed in your ideology dumbded-down by design
    You’re drunk on the American paradigm

    You serve the establishment and their banking cartel
    The federal reserve and their money from hell
    So devoid of critical thinking in your one-track mind
    You’re drunk on the American paradigm

    The ruling elite are your enablers, their new world order is at stake
    And the last thing that they need is to have you conscious and awake
    So they keep you distracted naive and in line
    Keep you drunk on the American paradigm

    One day you will hit bottom just as planned
    Your worthless dollar no longer in demand
    Conquered from within, it’s treason defined
    You’re drunk on the American paradigm

    Report Post » scion88  
    • chalkdust
      Posted on August 27, 2012 at 4:32am

      You are fixed in your own cynical, spoon fed, Alex Jones, hopeless, someone-else-controls-your-destiny, I-got-it-figured-out-and-you-don’t ignorant ideology. You might as well build yourself a rocket and head towards the moon cause the“banksters” and the “Illuminati” can’t control you there. Although, maybe you should consider some extra fuel to make it a little further. Knowing the “banksters” like we do they probably got the moon under control.
      You should build it for two because westcoast probably wants to go since he too believes everyone else, except you and Alex, is a walking zombie with no thoughts of their own totally controlled by, insert your own Boogeymen.

      Report Post » chalkdust  
  • Individualism
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 7:11pm

    i would say a loss for Romney since nobody really likes him that much and a bounce instead for Gary Johnson since many voters will go over to him. hopefully they get people booing him and his vice off the stage on tv or a paul nomination.

    Report Post » Individualism  
    • Ballot_Box_Revolution
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 11:01pm

      F^%$^ Gary Johnson. He is a dope. He speaks of the Constitution like an Anarchist. He makes good points but doesn’t understand the Constitution, and it’s intentions…..If he does he hasn’t shown it. He will need some help. If he had Paul as a running mate he could actually win it. It would come down to Romney, and Johnson.

      But Johnson, with some other unknown Libertarian..Nah…I would write in Paul before I voted for him. Even if Paul endorsed him i wouldn’t vote for him, unless if he (Paul) were maybe going to be on the ticket…Just like I wont blindly vote Republican anymore, I will not start to blindly vote Libertarian….

      Report Post » Ballot_Box_Revolution  
    • Toltepeceno
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 11:52pm

      Don’t hold your breath.

      Report Post » Toltepeceno  
  • watersRpeople
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 6:54pm

    By the way, if God sent Hurricane Isaac to disrupt the RNC, then God must have also sent Hurricane Katrina to smash New Orleans.

    Report Post »  
  • Cyclone_Ranger
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:34pm

    yeah. No bounce for Ryan, no love for the mormon cult.

    Report Post » Cyclone_Ranger  
    • luckyme
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 6:09pm

      AND YES! THERE IS A WHOLE lot of LOVE FOR THE “Black liberation theology” right?

      Report Post » luckyme  
    • luckyme
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 6:12pm

      @ Cyclone_Ranger your picture is soooooooooo cool I can actually see you while reading your post.

      Report Post » luckyme  
  • KickinBack
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:32pm

    Yep, Romney will get the official nod as the Republican’s main man, and then we all will have to endure the cries of “It’s a conspiracy!” from the paulbots in the coming weeks…Should be interesting.

    Report Post » KickinBack  
  • wisehiney
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:30pm

    Hey Blazers, might wanna go gas up. This storm is gonna be worse than thought. Oil and gas wells are gonna catch hell. Save a few bucks, send to Tea Party. If any refineries go down – whew! We shall see.

    Report Post »  
    • Polarized America
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:46pm

      It looks like “Isaac” has a good chance of hitting New Orleans as a cat2 or better … wow i hope not

      Report Post »  
    • HOOT_OWL
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 6:12pm

      Thanks Wise .
      I just saw on FOX news and they said that BP
      is shutting down their refineries in the Gulf. Not sure
      if others will follow or how fast this will hit the pump.

      Report Post » HOOT_OWL  
    • chalkdust
      Posted on August 27, 2012 at 12:54am

      Huri-smack is probably going to disrupt the bounce as well. If I was Obama’s campaign manager I would make sure he is in front of the cameras in New Orleans when Isaac arrives driving evac buses.
      Ha ha, but seriously look for the media to make this a big event regardless of the actual damage which will disrupt the “bounce”.
      Just looked at the satellite loop of Isaac, it’s already in open water and reforming quite well. Looks like it could easily be as big as Katrina.

      Report Post » chalkdust  
  • BryanB
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:21pm

    So what you are saying is “The Convention Bounce” really means nothing ?????

    Report Post » BryanB  
    • mmmmarilyn
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:29pm

      Convention bounce.
      Why folks thought Palin was going to be President.
      Of course Cindy showing up in her Star Trek outfit, wearing $300,000 worth of jewels didn’t help.

      Report Post » mmmmarilyn  
  • Impenitent
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:19pm

    I predict a bounce for pollsters

    Report Post »  
  • Sirfoldallot
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:19pm

    The only thing Obama will bounce is a basketball.

    Report Post » Sirfoldallot  
    • HOOT_OWL
      Posted on August 26, 2012 at 6:02pm

      I heard that when he has to pay out of his own pocket.
      He can bounce a check pretty good too.

      Report Post » HOOT_OWL  
  • Stoic one
    Posted on August 26, 2012 at 5:16pm

    I predict a clinton boost for Romney and a kerry kick in the arts for obama

    Report Post » Stoic one  

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