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These Are America’s Worst Housing Markets Poised to Recover

Nationwide, the housing market is still reeling from one of the worst crashes in history. Still, over the next two years, some areas are expected to start recovering. Researchers at 24/7 Wall St. have identified the ten metropolitan areas where home prices are projected to increase the most by next year. However, since most of those markets have experienced exceptionally large drops in home prices, the revival is bittersweet.

Six of the ten metropolitan areas that are projected to have the largest home prices increase from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012 are also among the top 50 areas that experienced the worst housing prices declines from the second quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2011.

The housing markets in these areas were so decimated by their real estate bubble burst that they are considered to be at their bottom with no room to get even worse. Such bottoms tend to draw in investors. The inflow of new money causes these markets to bounce back, driving home prices back up.

Of course, there are many large cities, such as Las Vegas, Nev., and Riverside, Calif., that were also hit exceptionally hard by the housing crisis that are not expected to recover in the coming year. The difference between these cities and those on this list is their size. The metro areas that are projected to recover have slightly more than 100,000 residents, for the most part. Carson City, where home prices are expected to increase by 15.5 percent, has fewer than 55,000 residents. As a result, housing inventories are much smaller. It is much easier to turn around a housing market on this scale than on a much larger one.

24/7 Wall St. used data from Fiserv for 384 metropolitan areas to compile this list of the ten cities where home prices are expected to increase the most from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012. They also included future projected price increases, population, when the metropolitan areas reached their price peaks, and unemployment rates, all provided by Fiserv.

America’s Worst Housing Markets Poised to Recover10. Mobile, Ala.
Change in home prices (2011 Q2 to 2012 Q2): 6.2 percent
Change in home prices (2012 Q2 to 2013 Q2): 14.2 percent
Population: 411,536
Prices reached peak in: 2008 Q2 (-27.1 percent)
Unemployment: 11.2 percent

Home prices in Mobile, Ala., dropped more than 27 percent in the past three years. From the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2011, prices dropped 18.8 percent — the second largest decrease in the country.

According to the Mobile Area Association of Realtors, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 40 percent of all sales in the area for the 12 months that ended October 1. However, the metropolitan area is one of a few in the country where prices are expected to increase significantly this coming year and even more so the following year.

The real estate market is expected to make a comeback in the coming 12 months, with a projected increase of 6.2 percent in prices.

America’s Worst Housing Markets Poised to Recover9. Syracuse, N.Y.
Change in home prices (2011 Q2 to 2012 Q2): 7.0 percent
Change in home prices (2012 Q2 to 2013 Q2): 1.5 percent
Population: 647,108
Prices reached peak in: 2008 Q1 (-7.9 percent)
Unemployment: 8.0 percent

Home prices in Syracuse, N.Y., decreased only 7.9 percent from their peak in the first quarter of 2008. This is not only significantly lower than the national drop of 32.3 percent from the national peak in the first quarter of 2006, but also significantly lower than other metropolitan areas on the list.

The city’s housing market has done exceptionally well compared to the rest of the country. In 2010, it had the fifth-lowest foreclosure rate in the nation, according to RealtyTrac.

America’s Worst Housing Markets Poised to Recover8. Las Cruces, N.M.
Change in home prices (2011 Q2 to 2012 Q2): 7.4 percent
Change in home prices (2012 Q2 to 2013 Q2): 7.3 percent
Population: 211,617
Prices reached peak in: 2007 Q3 (-12.6 percent)
Unemployment: 6.6 percent

Las Cruces’s unemployment rate of 6.6 percent is the 47th lowest in the country and is much lower than the national rate of 9.1 percent. This measurement indicates a healthy economy, which in turn influences the housing market. From the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, housing prices are expected to increase 7.4 percent.

This trend is projected to continue through the next year, and prices to increase another 7.3 percent.

America’s Worst Housing Markets Poised to Recover7. Niles-Benton Harbor, Mich.
Change in home prices (2011 Q2 to 2012 Q2): 7.5 percent
Change in home prices (2012 Q2 to 2013 Q2): 2.4 percent
Population: 160,414
Prices reached peak in: 2007 Q4 (-13.2 percent)
Unemployment: 10.7 percent

The Niles-Benton Harbor, Mich., metropolitan area has seen a 13.2 percent decrease in housing prices since its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007.

In the last 12 months, housing prices dropped by 5.2 percent. Prices are expected to bounce back dramatically, increasing 7.5 percent by the second quarter of 2012, and then increasing just 2.4 percent in the following 12 months.

America’s Worst Housing Markets Poised to Recover6. St. George, Utah
Change in home prices (2011 Q2 to 2012 Q2): 7.9 percent
Change in home prices (2012 Q2 to 2013 Q2): 3.5 percent
Population: 138,492
Prices reached peak in: 2006 Q4 (-41.4 percent)
Unemployment: 9.6 percent

Home prices have decreased by 41.4 percent in St. George, Utah, since the fourth quarter of 2006. In just the last twelve months, prices have decreased 12.4 percent — the eighth largest drop in the country.

However, from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012 prices are projected to increase 7.9 percent.

Check out the top 5 here.

(Charles B. Stockdale–24/7 Wall St./The Blaze)

Comments (45)

  • Loda Crapp
    Posted on November 4, 2011 at 1:43pm

    I remember when, in the 1973-1974 real estate depression, FHA stopped funding loans due to a credit crunch, after that, the housing prices started to rise again, and then, peak in the summer of 1979, then interest rates went to 18% until the spring of 1986, then, FHA interest rates dropped to 8.5% and housing prices rose again until the 1991 real estate depression, stagnant until 1999 the real estate prices started to rise again, and then, along came real easy money in 2003, (LIAR LOANS) and then, the amateurs got into the housing market and compounded really bad conditions. The government is doing the same cure as it did since I can remember, PRINT MONEY,. The moral of the story is that Real Estate Rentals are still the best investment one can make if, and only if, you take your greed out of the equation and are fair to your renters. The values moving 3 steps forward 2 steps backward, but always moving forward due to. ” INFLATION, DEPRECIATION AND ADJUSTED RENTS OVER TIME.

    Report Post » Loda Crapp  
  • KICKILLEGALSOUT
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 10:04pm

    The Housing market set to recover? I don’t think so! The only thing they can do to sell houses is to continue to sell our country and land to the corrupt Chinese so they can mass migrate, import Communism, and colonize and pollute our country.

    Report Post » KICKILLEGALSOUT  
  • S_Scarrella
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 4:49pm

    Thanks again Frank and Barney. We couldn’t have gotten here without you. Hat’s off to your leadership abilities!

    Report Post »  
    • Cosmos102
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 7:02pm

      Don’t forget Bill Clinton. He had a role in this market crash as well.

      Report Post » Cosmos102  
  • ted99999
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 4:26pm

    Housing will recover due to inflation. It was always the plan to get out of this mess.

    Report Post »  
    • Absalom
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 9:40pm

      In other words it is not a true increase, its government induced by its policies, and if we were to add in the inflation then people are still behind in their real home’s value?

      Abzz

      Report Post »  
  • Lantern
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:39pm

    I was hoping Cincinnati was on there. I have had a house for sale for 3 years. May be time to lower the price.

    Report Post » Lantern  
    • decendentof56
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 10:58pm

      LANTERN….
      Bud, I think its past time to lower the price.
      Wish I could sell mine here in NJ, but have to add addition for mom. At least I sold hers in 4 daze. It was in good shape. Location was what really sold it: 580 acres of farm preservation around her, plus good schools. Location is very, very important.

      Report Post »  
  • progressiveslayer
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:07pm

    The housing market will recover when our Marxist president becomes a capitalist and loves America as founded.This man is a disgrace to the office and he hates the nation as founded,the constitution and bill of rights.

    Report Post » progressiveslayer  
    • TimeLifeEditor
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 10:04pm

      Capitalism : sshmappitalism. BHO is presiding over the backlash of legislative predatory lending. These up and coming communities will be prime squatting grounds for the ever-increasing ranks of the undeserving.

      Report Post » TimeLifeEditor  
    • decendentof56
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 11:16pm

      Timelifer…..
      Don’t quite get the Capitalism remark. Your second sentence implies Gov. will force loans to the undeserving, which is what started this mess.

      For me, I think it was orchestrated from the beginning. Socialists (Dems) forcing bank loans to under capitalised folks for the purpose of social justice, knowing full well they could not pay the loans.
      Socialist-leaning Dems were just waiting to get started as soon as Obama got elected. The CBC, NAACP, Obama, are all culpable. It was another way to collapse the system.

      Yes, some were intoxicated by the idea of selling a home for outlandish profits after owning for a short time. I agree that was a factor. Now, we have a market flooded with homes worth less than the value.

      Slayer is right about Obama. He is part of a systematic demolition of our economic system. He was the ‘organizer’ no one could or would question about his aquaintances and, certainly, his validity as a US citizen. These were questions which would have been asked directly of anyone from the right.

      Report Post »  
  • forthepeople
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:02pm

    Careful everyone these are the same people whom figured our ‘ Climate Change ’ numbers . Me personally and my gut tells me the market is not done going down by a long shot ! Please prepare it is going to get much worse !

    Report Post » forthepeople  
  • garclar
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:01pm

    The housing markets will survive, they always do, the question is will our economy survive with an incompetent in charge that is driving our economy off a cliff. With tight rules and regs now in business, obamacare poised to shut down any business hiring, banks scared to loan government money, no new oil drilling going on in the gulf, the obama regime threatening to tax us into oblivion, is it any wonder that no new business is being created or expanded, except big government? With 20 to 25 million unemployed there has been no real effort to get anyone to work. I would think that if you reduce capital gains taxes to 0%, take corporate taxes to 0%, get rid of payroll taxes you might actually be able to attract new billionaires with new businesses back into the country to invest in new plants, corporations, and businesses so that acutally we might have some gross national product being moved again and a lot more people paying taxes. Ya think?

    Report Post »  
  • DallyWama
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:53pm

    I have been hearing the opposite. The housing market may crater even further because fannie and Freddie still make these minority loans. So which is it Blaze?

    Report Post »  
    • CatB
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:06pm

      The recovery will begin ….

      November 7th 2012

      The day after Obama is defeated!

      TEA!

      Report Post »  
    • Lantern
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:38pm

      I predict January 16th, 2013. If we make it that far.

      Report Post » Lantern  
    • progressiveslayer
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:42pm

      Commercial real estate will melt down next.

      Report Post » progressiveslayer  
  • Zombee
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:07pm

    Our nation can‘t survive four more years of Obama’s transformational destruction of the Constitution and our Economy. Anybody but Obama!

    Report Post » Zombee  
    • Eliasim
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:16pm

      Yes you really are a ZOMBEE because the government of the people and by the people has been ripping up the Constitution for decades and decades and it’s nothing new.

      Report Post »  
    • YoungBloodNews
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:18pm

      Watch out, triple dip on the horizon. Can we admit the great recession is over and the depression is well underway

      Report Post » YoungBloodNews  
    • zeakster
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:19pm

      eliasim i hear theres a great house over on empire you might want to look into get it now before it goes up 15% =)

      Report Post » zeakster  
    • cemerius
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:24pm

      Yes! can’t wait until the nomination process is over!!! Of course if a “third party” joins like Ron Paul we will have 4 more years of O dumb dumb!!

      Report Post » cemerius  
    • Eliasim
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:29pm

      zeakster,
      I did the housing thing in the 1990′s when I owned three rental properties and I decided to get out of it along with getting out of a 401K.

      Report Post »  
    • Edct
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:38pm

      The terrorist muslim illegal imposter in our White House wants to totally destroy our economy so he can take over with socialism….it is all part of his plan.

      Report Post »  
    • Eliasim
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:39pm

      I guess you can say that in the early 1990′s God punched me right square in the forehead and woke me up.

      Report Post »  
    • Eliasim
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:07pm

      I guess to put it a better way. God smacked me around and made me remember the things I already knew when I was four years old. That God takes care of his children.

      Report Post »  
    • KidCharlemagne
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:37pm

      cemerius
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:24pm
      Of course if a “third party” joins like Ron Paul we will have 4 more years of O dumb dumb!!
      ======================================================================

      Looks like you‘d best be supporting Ron Paul then if you don’t want that to happen:

      “Ron Paul Calls the Housing Collapse in 2003”
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S3lXDOQ7ec

      Report Post »  
    • TimeLifeEditor
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 10:50pm

      The results of 2012 are already being decided by those who pay attention to whether or not we are paying attention. Ill-gotten polling based on misconceived premises serve to solidify the entrenched view that we are diametrical opposed as a people.
      @KidCharlemange Ron Paul’s frame of reasoning better win no matter who the nominee is!

      Report Post » TimeLifeEditor  
  • zeakster
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:02pm

    if you want to pay 15% more for a house in benton harbor your not playing with all your marbles
    bhhs 1986

    Report Post » zeakster  
    • Eliasim
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:19pm

      I know many people who have big losses in their homes despite my warnings to them in the mid-late 1990′s I gave them not to pay more than twice their yearly salary for a house, and to preferably only pay the same as their yearly salary.

      Report Post »  
    • Eliasim
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:22pm

      But it’s easier to teach an old dog new tricks than people. I guess that‘s why God says he just has to dump out the contents like a potter’s broken vessel.

      Report Post »  
    • zeakster
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:26pm

      by the way benton harbor is not connected to niles i dont know why they grouped the two together it takes about 15 minutes to get to one from another. why didnt they connect benton harbor with st joe? what a racist bunch they are

      Report Post » zeakster  
  • drphil69
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 1:59pm

    I trust their projections as much as I trust that Obamacare will reduce the deficit…

    Report Post »  
    • Cat
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 3:12pm

      Since the end of WWII, the housing market has had booms and busts.
      Communities like Long Island were built in anticipation of returning soldiers needing housing.
      Ever since, marketing ploys, similar to diamond hustlers, has controlled housing values.

      Now, the demographics are changing with nearly 310 million people preparing to exit the housing market permanently over the next 10 to 15 years.
      Couple that tidbit with a failing global economy and this article’s claim of home prices rising makes little sense.

      Seems there might be good reason for younger investors to buy the land and raze the improvements.
      After all, the only thing that moves little either way, is the land, not the improvements on the land.
      This happens when an area is overbuilt and inventory remains high for an extended time.

      The secret little jewel city I live in has gone through some pangs.
      The downtown area is nearly a 50/50 mix of bedroom to business.
      About 3% of the old commercial property has been razed leaving large swaths of empty land in prime locations for the next generation to expand upon.
      Nearly 99% of the residential structures remain in use.
      The sad part is, there may not be another generation willing, or creative enough, to make a life for itself in a free nation using the opportunity that is manifesting.

      We can thank progressives for this screwed up mess.

      Report Post » Cat  
  • ChiefGeorge
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 1:45pm

    I’m in a nice area of the Riverside county mentioned here. Yes hit hard is an understatement, but in my area, the turn around happened three years ago now. We have already started building new homes again for about one year now in several areas. Homes are large and range from the low 300s. This is a steal compared to homes of the same size and location which went for 500-600k in 2005. Even at these prices, most felt they were still a good buy considering homes of this size in nearby Orange county and San Diego had 1mil price tags.

    Report Post » ChiefGeorge  
  • saranda
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 1:30pm

    This sounds like kind of a good news story. Kind of a backhanded good news story but good news nonetheless. Thanks Blaze.

    Report Post »  
  • The_Almighty_Creestof
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 1:20pm

    And once again, if you want to see the full list, you have to go off to some other site and deal with their pop-ups and the possibility of getting adware/spyware on your computer.

    Report Post »  
    • Pontiac
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 1:36pm

      @The_Almighty_Creestof
      If you haven’t figured it out you can Download “Firefox” for free, and get the “Adblock Plus” addon on for free, and Microsoft Security Essentials for free. I mean, this free stuff sure hasn’t been available for years or anything…

      http://www.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/fx/

      Report Post » Pontiac  
    • Rothbardian_in_the_Cleve
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 2:11pm

      @Creestof

      So do we have a deal? Are you going to let me buy your ticket to Tel Aviv? Let me know so we can work out the details.

      Report Post » Rothbardian_in_the_Cleve  
  • scoter
    Posted on November 3, 2011 at 1:01pm

    http://www.helpfireobama.com Please give $20.12

    scoter  
    • SimpleTruths
      Posted on November 3, 2011 at 1:59pm

      Yes please, throw your money away. With the line-up of candidates you have Obama is a shoe-in, what a bunch of sorry losers.

      Report Post » SimpleTruths  
    • Mohawk1773
      Posted on November 4, 2011 at 2:52am

      @SimpleTruths — You must live a desperate existence to want to hang around and harass people of a different ideological bent than you own. But isn’t that way the left works, they‘re not happy unless they’re getting into other peoples business. And you wonder why these people wish to hide their wallets from you?

      Go back to OWS now child.

      Report Post » Mohawk1773  

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