‘Unsurvivable’: New Tornado Warnings Aim to Clarify Expected Severity

(The Blaze/AP) — Even expert storm chases would have struggled to decipher the difference between the tornado warnings sent last May before severe weather hit Joplin and, a few days later, headed again toward downtown Kansas City.

The first tornado was a massive EF-5 twister that killed 161 people as it wiped out a huge chunk of the southwest Missouri community. The second storm caused only minor damage when two weak tornadoes struck in the Kansas City suburbs.

In both cases, the warnings were harbingers of touchdowns. But three out of every four times the National Weather Service issues a formal tornado warning, there isn’t one. The result is a “cry wolf” phenomenon that’s dulled the effectiveness of tornado warnings, and one the weather service hopes to solve with what amounts to a scare tactic.

Unsurvivable: New Tornado Warnings Aim to Clarify Expected Severity

The aftermath of the Joplin tornado (Photo: AP)

In a test that starts Monday, five weather service offices in Kansas and Missouri will use words such as “mass devastation,“ ”unsurvivable“ and ”catastrophic” in a new kind of warning that‘s based on the severity of a storm’s expected impact. The goal is to more effectively communicate the dangers of an approaching storm so people understand the risks they’re about to face.

“We’d like to think that as soon as we say there is a tornado warning, everyone would run to the basement,” said Ken Harding, a weather service official in Kansas City. “That’s not how it is. They will channel flip, look out the window or call neighbors. A lot of times people don’t react until they see it.”

The system being tested will create two tiers of warnings for thunderstorms and three tiers for tornadoes, each based on severity. A research team in North Carolina will analyze the results of the experiment, which runs through late fall, and help the weather service decide whether to expand the new warnings to other parts of the country.

Laura Myer, a social science research professor at Mississippi State University, said people she has interviewed want more advance warning about a potential tornado strike and more information on the specific locations where the storms are expected to hit.

Unsurvivable: New Tornado Warnings Aim to Clarify Expected Severity

Photo of an Indiana twister (Photo: AP)

“We have found in Mississippi and Alabama and various other Southern states that people feel they would constantly be going to a shelter if they heeded every tornado warning,” she said. “For people in mobile homes, that’s the craziest thing.

“To get to a shelter, they have to leave home,” she said. “They feel like if they left during every watch or warning, they would be on the road all the time.”

The primary audiences for weather service‘s written bulletins are broadcasters who issue warnings on the air and emergency management agencies that activate sirens and respond to the storm’s aftermath. In the event of a Joplin-like tornado, the new-look warning would have an urgency hard to ignore.

Andy Bailey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Pleasant Hill, Mo., said it might look something like this: “THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WITH COMPLETE DEVASTATION LIKELY. … SEEK SHELTER NOW! … MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS WILL OFFER NO SHELTER FROM THIS TORNADO – ABANDON THEM IMMEDIATELY.”

Had such a warning come across his television set on May 22, Joplin resident Jeff Lehr said he might have sought shelter. Instead, it wasn’t until a siren distracted him from a sporting event he was watching on TV that he looked out a window and saw what appeared to be dark thunderstorm clouds.

Even then, he didn’t take cover until the windows began imploding in his apartment.

Unsurvivable: New Tornado Warnings Aim to Clarify Expected Severity

The aftermath of the Joplin tornado (Photo: AP)

“After hundreds of times of similar thunderstorms approaching Joplin, many of those with tornado warnings attached, and you see them pass … after all those storms, you kind of get jaundiced about the warnings and tend not to give them the weight you probably should give them,” said Lehr, a reporter at The Joplin Globe.

James Spann, chief meteorologist with WBMA-TV in Birmingham, Ala., said the impact-based warning experiment could provide broadcasters and emergency management agencies with a useful tool in an age when a majority of people still wait for an outdated technology – tornado sirens – to seek shelter.

He blames the siren mentality and high number of false alarms for the complacency of people living in tornado-prone areas such as Alabama, where 252 people were killed last April 27 in a tornado outbreak that struck communities across the South.

“A lot of politicians and people who don’t understand tornadoes try to jump into this,” Spann said. “Their first reaction is, `We’ve got to get more sirens.’ What are these people thinking? They clearly do not understand the issue.”

Comments (29)

  • Wiggyky
    Posted on April 1, 2012 at 5:34pm

    Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Floods = Mother Nature’s way of saying “UP YOURS”

    Heed her Warnings and get out of her way.

    Report Post » Wiggyky  
  • Byrn67
    Posted on April 1, 2012 at 12:01pm

    I watched the joplin tornado form up i was on the phone with my sister telling her to go to cover i lost site of it when it became rain wraped then the phone went dead . The next five hours was hell my wife two boys and my sister and her family were all in joplin that day . My sister lost EVERY thing tank god all came through unhurt . And anyone who says its a good way to cull stupid folks needs to be straped to a fence post to ride one out . The warnings need to be more forcefull storm spoters need better training and noaa weather radios do NOT always work i know i have one .

    Report Post » Byrn67  
  • BobtheMoron
    Posted on April 1, 2012 at 10:32am

    Again the media and the government trying to fix ‘stupid’. Can’t be done and it thins out the stupid people.

    Report Post » BobtheMoron  
  • Melika
    Posted on April 1, 2012 at 9:42am

    I think they need to completely revamp the weather service warning system. I can understand the apathy towards these tornado warnings, because I have them to “severe thunderstorms that can cause hail and possibly tornadoes”. We get them ALL THE TIME come summer (every rain storm is a potential TS in summer) and unless I see some seriously dark clouds they are routinely ignored by me and everyone else around here.

    Part of the problem may be that they cover such large areas. I’m between two large areas, so what is happening 40-50 miles away from me is the coverage I get. It seems when a “severe” storm is approaching, they send out a warning to the entire area that MAY get hit (depending on tracking) covering 10-15 counties (& sometimes the whole state), which is fine and appropriate hours before the storm. The same warning is repeated until the system passes through. That means if the storm tracks one way & is only going to hit 3 counties, the rest of us are getting the SAME EXACT WARNING, & this happens all the time. Warnings are great, what I want is the updated “Watch” notice, as in County X is under a severe WATCH or is experiencing “Current Weather X” so that I know if it is near my county & which way it is heading.

    In 3+ years, only ONCE did a “Severe Thunderstorm” ever hit that was actually severe & I’d say about 70% of the time there was no storm at all. To me, the weather service has become a joke.

    Report Post »  
  • 4xeverything
    Posted on April 1, 2012 at 7:27am

    It’s about time. Up until this tornado season, here in Cincinnati the sirens would go off everytime we had a severe thunderstorm warning and then a tornado watch would be added. It didn’t matter that there were no funnel clouds or doppler indicated tornadoes. The sirens would go off 5-7 times during a bad storm night. If your community‘s siren didn’t go off, but the one next to yours did, then you would sit and wait for yours to go off too in a few minutes. There were many sleepless nights. It seemed like a sick joke. This year it was finally changed. The only time the sirens go off now are when a tornado warning has been issued for our area. Now, lets see how many people don’t listen because they have been duped so often in the past.

    Report Post » 4xeverything  
  • shotzie
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 10:07pm

    I do not understand people complaining about this. At least we HAVE warnings now. There is no such thing as a minor tornado if it hits you. Count your blessings people for all the ways we now have to be warned – tv, cell phone, computer, weather alert radio. When my fathers home was destroyed by a tornado in 1938, there were zero warnings, there was not even tv yet. Have we really become so incredibly lazy we complain about having to go to a shelter because there “might” be a tornado? Come on!!! These are the same people that will probably sue because a lesser threat was issued and they got hit and now say were not “sufficiently” warned. Man up, protect your family and quit whining people.

    Report Post » shotzie  
    • kaydeebeau
      Posted on April 1, 2012 at 6:50am

      And how will the new words make any difference? When the “unsurvivorable” or “catastrophic” doesnt’t happen, won’t the same “cry wolf” effect still occur?

      Report Post » kaydeebeau  
  • MrButcher
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 8:55pm

    A healthy respect for the forces of nature is wise.

    You never know when disaster or tragedy will strike.

    Cliche’ is common sense,

    Report Post » MrButcher  
  • lukerw
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 8:31pm

    If the Bullet has your name on it, you are hit — Please, do not bother me with Preventionism!

    Report Post » lukerw  
    • elihu
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 8:35pm

      I believe it’s called “Divine Providence”.

      Report Post » elihu  
  • clingingtogodandguns
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 8:08pm

    I went through the Alabama tornado it hit about 1/4 mile from me.I heard it but a tornado is usually about 1/2 mile wide.It‘s hard to tell where it’s going to hit.The sirens went off all the time there.I don’t think you can predict them because they raise and lower at will.What you can do is check the previous paths of tornadoes,the ones in AL. followed the same path as the ones from years past.If you live in a tornado area check past tornadoes.

    Report Post »  
  • possom
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 8:02pm

    Our tornado siren”s are so far away a slight breese would drown it out, the only way to see what’s happening is on tv.

    Report Post » possom  
  • Stoic one
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 7:31pm

    the mar 2nd outbreak that hit Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana, we were ADVISED a couple of days in advance of the possibility of severe weather. We monitored the weather ALL day. My wife was awakened two hours early.The family talked about where each family group would shelter in our homes, just in case. This is prudent.
    In a straight line the tornadoes were about 15 miles away. A near miss. With today’s technology, if you are not complacent you can be safe.
    this complicating of the tornado warnings is NWS simply trying to be more ‘relevant’

    Report Post » Stoic one  
  • 82dAirborne
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 7:03pm

    I live here in Missouri in the middle of “tornado alley.” You do not play with a tornado. You don’t wait for some kind of grade/description or F number. You get the heck out of the way. Period. If you don’t – the results are on you. The very word “tornado” should be more than enough!

    Report Post » 82dAirborne  
    • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 7:46pm

      82nd – we do not have many tornados in Az, yet last year we had one start just a few tens of meters away from where me and others were out on the apartment building balcomies. I have seen enough twisters born to know a fullel cloud dropping down. It was a F1, and unbelievably many thought it was a dust devil (very common here) until I bellowed out “TWISTER” when it came in our direction.

      I had to literally shove my friend back into the building and behind the wall when the thing ate the front of the structre off; people don’t need to mess with these things, we lucked out only due to the grace of God that day.

      I cound never imagine one of the ‘Wrath of God’ devastations.

      Report Post » Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
    • 82dAirborne
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 7:53pm

      Hi Snow! AZ is a different story. In the middle of the country we are used to tornados and SHOULD know better than to ignore even a mild warning.

      Report Post » 82dAirborne  
    • Elena2010
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 8:52pm

      Aye — 3 April 1974!

      If it looks dark green and has pouches on it, get down and get down fast!

      Report Post » Elena2010  
    • 82dAirborne
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 9:29pm

      Ah green: that’s the worst! Much worse than black. Seemingly still & green – Dig a hole!!!!

      Report Post » 82dAirborne  
  • KickinBack
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 6:56pm

    “mass devastation,“ ”unsurvivable“ and ”catastrophic”

    So, on a scale of 1 to 10 on the tornado destructo meter with 1 being “lets go fly a kite,” where do these three fit?? Sounds all the same to me.

    Report Post » KickinBack  
    • Stoic one
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 7:20pm

      8,9,& 10 –all of which if you are there you are dead.
      I think this will be designed for liberals; conservatives will already be in sheltered locations.

      Report Post » Stoic one  
    • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 7:47pm

      @Kick:

      They falll under one term in my book: “Wrath of God.”

      Report Post » Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
  • LouC57
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 6:53pm

    If Katrina taught anything it was “be prepared, heed warning”…common sense. Get to safety.

    *cricket chirp* heard

    Report Post »  
    • KangarooJack
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 11:27pm

      I think some cicadas have joined in the serenade in my little town. Crickets/Frogs/Cicadas/maybe a bird or to….

      as in anything-preparation is key. Somewhere to Shelter in Place, supplies on hand, and a means to hear weather reports.

      What Hurricane Katrina taught us was how short an amount of time it takes for civilization to break down. 2 Days!

      Report Post » KangarooJack  
  • hidden_lion
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 6:46pm

    If you don’t heed the warnings you are too stupid to live. If you live in tornado land with out a storm shelter, you are to stupid to live.

    Report Post » hidden_lion  
    • scuba13
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 7:32pm

      How does Encinom keep slipping by?

      Report Post » scuba13  
    • hidden_lion
      Posted on March 31, 2012 at 8:58pm

      encinom lives in his mother’s storm cellar, that is how he slips by. She had him, and then locked him down there his whole life, that is the only plausible explanation.

      Report Post » hidden_lion  
  • Just4thefax
    Posted on March 31, 2012 at 6:46pm

    Fact: Heavy rain can block out siren noise!!!!

    Report Post » Just4thefax  

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