World

World More Peaceful Now Than Ever?

World is More Peaceful Now than You Think

(AP) It seems as if violence is everywhere, but it’s really on the run.

Yes, thousands of people have died in bloody unrest from Africa to Pakistan, while terrorists plot bombings and kidnappings. Wars drag on in Iraq and Afghanistan. In peaceful Norway, a man massacred 69 youths in July. In Mexico, headless bodies turn up, victims of drug cartels. This month eight people died in a shooting in a California hair salon.

Yet, historically, we’ve never had it this peaceful.

That’s the thesis of three new books, including one by prominent Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker. Statistics reveal dramatic reductions in war deaths, family violence, racism, rape, murder and all sorts of mayhem.

In his book, Pinker writes: “The decline of violence may be the most significant and least appreciated development in the history of our species.”

And it runs counter to what the mass media is reporting and essentially what we feel in our guts.

Pinker and other experts say the reality is not painted in bloody anecdotes, but demonstrated in the black and white of spreadsheets and historical documents. They tell a story of a world moving away from violence.

In his new book, “The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined,” Pinker makes the case that a smarter, more educated world is becoming more peaceful in several statistically significant ways. His findings are based on peer-reviewed studies published by other academics using examinations of graveyards, surveys and historical records:

— The number of people killed in battle — calculated per 100,000 population — has dropped by 1,000-fold over the centuries as civilizations evolved. Before there were organized countries, battles killed on average more than 500 out of every 100,000 people. In 19th century France, it was 70. In the 20th century with two world wars and a few genocides, it was 60. Now battlefield deaths are down to three-tenths of a person per 100,000.

— The rate of genocide deaths per world population was 1,400 times higher in 1942 than in 2008.

— There were fewer than 20 democracies in 1946. Now there are close to 100. Meanwhile, the number of authoritarian countries has dropped from a high of almost 90 in 1976 to about 25 now.

Pinker says one of the main reasons for the drop in violence is that we are smarter. IQ tests show that the average teenager is smarter with each generation. The tests are constantly adjusted to keep average at 100, and a teenager who now would score a 100 would have scored a 118 in 1950 and a 130 in 1910. So this year’s average kid would have been a near-genius a century ago. And that increase in intelligence translates into a kinder, gentler world, Pinker says.

“As we get smarter, we try to think up better ways of getting everyone to turn their swords into plowshares at the same time,” Pinker said in an interview. “Human life has become more precious than it used to be.”

Pinker argued his case in a commentary this past week in the scientific journal Nature. He has plenty of charts and graphs to back up his claims, including evidence beyond wartime deaths — evidence that our everyday lives are also less violent:

— Murder in European countries has steadily fallen from near 100 per 100,000 people in the 14th and 15th centuries to about 1 per 100,000 people now.

— Murder within families. The U.S. rate of husbands being killed by their wives has dropped from 1.2 per 100,000 in 1976 to just 0.2. For wives killed by their husbands, the rate has slipped from 1.4 to 0.8 over the same time period.

— Rape in the United States is down 80 percent since 1973. Lynchings, which used to occur at a rate of 150 a year, have disappeared.

— Discrimination against blacks and gays is down, as is capital punishment, the spanking of children, and child abuse.

But if numbers are too inaccessible, Pinker is more than happy to provide the gory stories illustrating our past violence. “It is easy to forget how dangerous life used to be, how deeply brutality was once woven into the fabric of daily existence,” Pinker writes in his book.

He examines body counts, rapes, sacrifice and slavery in the Bible, using an estimate of 1.2 million deaths detailed in the Old Testament. He describes forms of torture used in the Middle Ages and even notes the nastiness behind early day fairy tales, such as the evil queen’s four gruesome methods for killing Snow White along with a desire to eat her lungs and liver.

Even when you add in terrorism, the world is still far less violent, Pinker says.

“Terrorism doesn’t account for many deaths. Sept. 11 was just off the scale. There was never a terrorist attack before or after that had as many deaths. What it does is generate fear,” he said.

Pinker discusses his opinions of present day violence with Shining City TV in September 2010:

And Pinker’s TED conference speech on “The Myth of Violence” in March 2007:

It’s hard for many people to buy the decline in violence. Even those who deal in peace for a living at first couldn’t believe it when the first academics started counting up battle deaths and recognized the trends.

In 1998, Andrew Mack, then head of strategic planning for U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, said a look at the statistics showed the world was becoming less violent. The reaction from his professional peacekeeping colleagues?

“Pffft, it’s not true,” they told Mack, arguing that the 1990s had to be the worst decade in U.N. history. It wasn’t even close.

Joshua Goldstein, a professor of international relations at American University and author of “Winning the War on War,” has also been telling the same story as Pinker, but from a foreign policy point of view. At each speech he gives, people bring up America’s lengthy wars in the Middle East. “It’s been a hard message to get through,” he acknowledged.

“We see the atrocities and they are atrocious,” Goldstein said. “The blood is going to be just as red on the television screens.”

Mack, who’s now with Simon Fraser University in Canada, credits the messy, inefficient and heavily political peacekeeping process at the U.N., the World Bank and thousands of non-governmental organizations for helping curb violence.

The “Human Security Report 2009/2010,” a project led by Mack and funded by several governments, is a worldwide examination of war and violence and has been published as a book. It cites jarringly low numbers. While the number of wars has increased by 25 percent, they’ve been minor ones.

The average annual battle death toll has dropped from nearly 10,000 per conflict in the 1950s to less than 1,000 in the 21st century. And the number of deadliest wars — those that kill at least 1,000 people a year — has fallen by 78 percent since 1988.

Mack and Goldstein emphasize how hard society and peacekeepers have worked to reduce wars, focusing on action taken to tamp down violence, while Pinker focuses on cultural and thought changes that make violence less likely. But all three say those elements are interconnected.

Even the academics who disagree with Pinker, Goldstein and Mack, say the declining violence numbers are real.

“The facts are not in dispute here; the question is what is going on,” John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and author of “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.”

“It’s been 21 years since the Cold War ended and the United States has been at war for 14 out of those 21 years,” Mearsheimer said. “If war has been burned out of the system, why do we have NATO and why has NATO been pushed eastward…? Why are we spending more money on defense than all other countries in the world put together?”

What’s happening is that the U.S. is acting as a “pacifier” keeping the peace all over the world, Mearsheimer said. He said like-minded thinkers, who call themselves “realists” believe “that power matters because the best way to survive is to be really powerful.” And he worries that a strengthening China is about to upset the world power picture and may make the planet bloodier again.

And Goldstein points out that even though a nuclear attack hasn’t occurred in 66 years — one nuclear bomb could change this trend in an instant.

Pinker said looking at the statistics and how violent our past was and how it is less so now, “makes me appreciate things like democracy, the United Nations, like literacy.”

He and Goldstein believe it’s possible that an even greater drop in violence could occur in the future.

Goldstein says there’s a turn on a cliché that is apt: “We’re actually going from the fire to the frying pan. And that’s progress. It’s not as bad as the fire.”

Comments (53)

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  • Eliasim
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 5:01pm

    The professors must not know the age in which they live. The word of the Lord to Zephaniah.
    The Book of Zephaniah 1:12, 1:13
    And it shall come to pass at that time, that I will search Jerusalem with candles, and punish the men that are settled on their lees: that say in their heart, The Lord will not do good, neither will he do evil.
    13 Therefore their goods shall become a booty, and their houses a desolation: they shall also build houses, but not inhabit them: and they shall plant vineyards, but not drink the wine thereof.

    Now if I’m not mistaken, there are thousands upon thousands of new houses across the nation which can not be lived in. And if I’m not mistaken, there are entire cities in China which are not inhabited.

    Report Post »  
    • Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 5:16pm

      Indeed, and when the economies of China, like that for the EU and most likely America gives way, then there will be war.
      http://artinphoenix.com/gallery/grimm (cat folk art)

      Report Post » Snowleopard {gallery of cat folks}  
    • Hobbs57
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 10:36pm

      As a budding psychologist, surely to over achieve these intellectual fools as I progress in my education, I will tell you we are on the brink of total mayhem and mass chaos. The world economies are over extended and spread thin with mass violence on the horizon. Food supply is becoming shortened and the efforts of redistribution have only empowered those who will shortly be short on resources. Primarily, clean water supplies are becoming less and less in ratio to the population. The growth of our species is out of control and will soon force conditions of survival of the fittest. With better technology and advancements in health, people living longer, the world notion of preserving life even when people don’t care to, is surely going to be the catalyst that leads to WWIII. Those partaking of the tree of knowledge are largely out numbering those who partake of the tree of life, this can only lead to civilization absent of all wisdom, which whether they realize it or not, is purely a condition based on total and complete fear. Fear’s based upon preserving life. It is only those of faith who understand and trust this is not the end here on earth, that there is more, and won’t be forced to become such savages who instinctively will be faces with the compulsion to do what ever necessary to sustain life based upon every imaginable and unimaginable fear. Trust me, it is coming..Another stupid intellect psychologist .. I earned my wisdom through real life experience, not a book

      Report Post » Hobbs57  
  • WyomingPatriot
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:59pm

    They say “peace, peace” but there is no peace. People will say “Here is the messiah.There is the messiah”. Don’t go running to and fro, responding to rumours. We live in perilous times. There have always been, and will always be those who will seek to decieve, for their own purposes. Usually to glorify themselves, or to promote an agenda which they believe will benefit them personally. The true challenge we face as a people is to defy those who seek to divide us into oposing groups, not through acts of violence, but by proving ourselves to be, once again a people united in faith. If we squabble amongst ourselves, or seek vengeance toward those who are driven to chaos, then we become the very kind of people we so despise. If we allow ourselves to be drawn into conflict by those who wish us ill, then we are actually ruled by them. Glenn has asked many times ” Can man govern himself? I say Yes! But only when we are willing to put self interest in the back seat for a time, and let reason and compassion be our guide. This is not to suggest that we should be submissive in all things. As a free people, we will always retain the right, and the responsibility to defend ourselves and those who are unable to defend themselves. But use reason to recognize where defense ends and agression begins.

    Report Post »  
  • Whirled Peas
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:50pm

    Even when you add in terrorism, the world is still far less violent, Pinker says.

    “Terrorism doesn’t account for many deaths. Sept. 11 was just off the scale. There was never a terrorist attack before or after that had as many deaths. What it does is generate fear,” he said.
    ***************************
    Hey Einstein! The purpose of terrorism is to generate fear!! If your statement is true about ‘doesn’t account for many deaths’, I don‘t think the suicide bombers are getting their money’s worth. They should go on strike for a higher death rate.

    Report Post » Whirled Peas  
    • hidden_lion
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 5:01pm

      The statistical difference is we have a much higher world population which brings the averages down. Considering in Rwanda alone there were 900,000+ people killed. How many people in the middle east and Africa have been murdered and buried in mass graves without the numbers ever being reported? Peer reviewed my A** In Iraq the found numerous mass graves with over 300,000 bodies discovered. Were these numbers included in his analysis? I doubt it.

      Report Post » hidden_lion  
  • phillipwgirard
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:49pm

    i can’t get my head around WHY people actually voted “O” into office. can somebody post something and help me out with this one? And do any of you think he will stay in power after 2012?

    Report Post » phillipwgirard  
  • Whirled Peas
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:38pm

    It’s nothing more than the liberal lie “Everything’s fine… go back to sleep”…. Another O’Mulligan attempt to lull the public back into a stupor. His ‘Hope and Change’ mantra has lost momentum and has (from the beginning) affected me like fingernails on a chalkboard.

    I wonder how AP will react when the first nuke hits NYC…. will it be a ‘nothing to see here, move along’ moment then?

    There will be no peace as long as there are more than two people on this planet. Make that more than one person on this planet. Eventually, he will be so bored with no one to fight with he’ll blow his own brains out due to boredom.

    Report Post » Whirled Peas  
  • TxMadMac
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:34pm

    I almost peed my pants laughing at this Haaaaaaavard Psychobabalist ! Must be one of O‘Reilley’s buddys. I‘m sure he’s got the data to back it up so Bill will buy it hook, line and sinker. I feel better now all peaceful and everything !

    Report Post »  
  • ZengaPA65
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:26pm

    For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

    They dress the wound of my people as though it were not serious. “Peace, peace,” they say, when there is no peace.

    Report Post » ZengaPA65  
  • lel2007
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:24pm

    I fell the peace. You feel the peace? Must be that Nobel Peace Prize winning anti-American president . I‘m surprised there hasn’t been a spontaneous breakout of singing “*** ba yah” by the “occupy” gang. There must be at least one tambourine among them. Then again maybe that song doesn’t quite go along with anarchy.

    Report Post » lel2007  
  • YepImaConservative
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:20pm

    Reminded of the man who jumped off the roof of a tall building and halfway down observed: “It looks good so far.”

    Report Post » YepImaConservative  
    • dogpatch65
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:31pm

      VEPIMACONSERVATIVE: I think this is just the calm before the storm. You know what it reminds me of? This:
      http://markamerica.com/2011/08/21/the-coming-wars/

      Report Post »  
    • YepImaConservative
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:51pm

      Thank you DOGPATCH, but I think we can pretty much write off Sarah Palin as the star of this story, but I get your drift and the writer’s…

      I’m not a fan of Ayn Rand, but I am a fan of Mark Levin. That wee wees off the Ron Paul supporters who I am no fan of either, lol.

      Report Post » YepImaConservative  
  • Ferrarello
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:18pm

    Yeah, it’s awesome. Waiting here for Hermaphrodite Janet Napolentano’s thugs to kick in my door.
    Ya know what Glen…. I was such a big fan of yours when you were at FOX. I really thought you were the real deal…someone to trust. However….you and you’re friend Bill never touch on tyranny that is going on RIGHT NOW in our country. The FEMA camps that you said on the air that you couldn’t debunk. The fact that the TSA are violating our 4th amendment rights every single day at the airport and now on our ROADS in Tennessee. No probable cause….illegal search and seizure…intimidation…..bullying. Why is it that the entire LEFT seem to be on the same page but we can’t even get you, Alex Jones and Michael Savage to get along ?

    Report Post » Ferrarello  
  • KickinBack
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:17pm

    So long as there are men, there will be wars. — Albert Einstein

    Report Post » KickinBack  
    • YepImaConservative
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 5:17pm

      Not in the leftist and femi-nazi community. They have all but castrated their so-called men (actually prefering vibrators… check out all the anti-male self help/ stimuli commercials, lol) and want that for the rest of America. They won’t be happy until all men (who are men) are wiped clean from traditional America and our warrior ways are nothing more than a footnote just before those same women are marched into Sharia Law indoctrination centers.

      Report Post » YepImaConservative  
  • PATRIOTGRUNT
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:05pm

    Ok . Nothing to worry about hey ! Time to buy more food & ammo, (got plenty of guns)

    Report Post » PATRIOTGRUNT  
  • Bronco II
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:05pm

    GOD said when you hear of wars and rumors of war that is not the time to worry about but when you hear PEACE,PEACE then those who don’t know or care about GOD and Our LORD JESUS CHRIST that is when they will need to worry.But no man knows the hour,day,month.Those who study his word know the season and know which generation is the last and it is this one THE GENERATION OF THE FIG TREE the second world AGE the third is coming the RESTORATION is coming and GOD will shake the earth again and all that stand firm on the ROCK will not be shaken but all evil and garbage will be gone forever then there will be TRUE PEACE and we will be in our spiritual bodies for eternity now that is true HOPE and something to look forward to.AMEN.

    Report Post » Bronco II  
  • Cherynn
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:03pm

    Somebody take this guys bong away from him

    Report Post » Cherynn  
  • Cherynn
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:03pm

    Somebody take this guys bong away from him.

    Report Post » Cherynn  
  • cassandra
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:02pm

    HAAVAARD says it all, what a moron

    Report Post »  
  • Chappy123
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:58pm

    BS!!! Does this guy live under a rock?

    The world is less peaceful than ever before.

    Report Post »  
    • godlovinmom
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:06pm

      Only gonna get worse, with obama killing all these muslim leaders…does he not think there will be consequences…mmmm…maybe that’s exactly what he wants.

      Report Post » godlovinmom  
  • Secessionista
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:57pm

    These one world order folks are just amazing! I recall a couple of decades ago how police departments all took credit for a sudden drop in violent crime. Turns out, it was merely a result of abortion becoming legal and all the thug mommies killing their thug babies. The UN and all the NGO’s are more than happy to take credit for this long trend of decreasing violence that has been going on for hundreds of years, hundreds of years longer than these NGO’s have even been in existence. And democracy is also claiming some of the credit too. But the truth of the matter is, is that humans are killing themselves less because… well, we really do not know why, we can only speculate. But one thing we do know, these kind folks who all clamor onto the stage to take credit for the play, even though they weren’t in it, do not deserve the credit.

    Could very well be the invention of better weapons. With guns and swords, it is easy to kill someone. And as they say, an armed society is a polite society.

    Couldn’t it be so very simply as that? Possbly so.

    But you will NEVER find the One World Order folks touting more guns in developing nations. Even though that might be the very thing they desperately need.

    Could be, the UN, and NGO’s, are preventing us from being even MORE peaceful. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

    Report Post » Secessionista  
  • lcovar
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:55pm

    What a load of BS.

    Report Post »  
  • welloddyfriggindah
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:54pm

    New Living Translation (©2007)
    When people are saying, “Everything is peaceful and secure,” then disaster will fall on them as suddenly as a pregnant woman’s labor pains begin. And there will be no escape.
    ….you may not believe this now, just remember in case the entrails really do hit the fan , in case you want to reconsider.

    Report Post » welloddyfriggindah  
  • mamatango
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:52pm

    For yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night.
    For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction comes upon them,
    as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

    But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief.
    Ye are all the children of light, and the children of the day: we are not of the night, nor of darkness.
    Therefore let us not sleep, as do others; but let us watch and be sober.

    But let us, who are of the day, be sober, putting on the breastplate of faith and love;
    and for an helmet, the hope of salvation. For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain
    salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ, Who died for us, that, whether we wake or sleep,
    we should live together with him.

    Report Post »  
  • ares338
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:46pm

    Someone needs to tell the Muslims that violence is trending downwards!

    Report Post » ares338  
  • netmail
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:45pm

    So, comparatively speaking, is this the age of ‘calm before the storm’ or what?? The damn glass of “less violence” is NOT ‘half full’ IMO and this crazy story only served to make me a bit more angry than I was yesterday….and on and on it goes.

    Report Post »  
  • Exrepublisheep
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:44pm

    The waters always recede first.

    Report Post » Exrepublisheep  
  • lukerw
    Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:38pm

    Quiet… before… the Storm!

    Report Post » lukerw  
    • netmail
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:47pm

      Exact same thought, same time….everyone with half a brain knows it.

      Report Post »  
    • randy
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 3:48pm

      Thought the same thing.

      It’s always calmest before the STORM.

      But personall,y I do not believe the story at all…..

      Report Post » randy  
    • Secessionista
      Posted on October 23, 2011 at 4:03pm

      It’s been getting quieter for hundreds and hundreds of years. That sure is a long quiet period.

      No need to worry about the quiet before the storm. The world ended last Friday, didn’t anyone else get the message?

      Those who truly know God’s message know not to worry or think about tomorrow. He cares for us like he cares for the sparrow. To worry is to betray our faith in him. Of course, I find dead sparrows all the time. That fate too, we need not worry about.

      Report Post » Secessionista  
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