Russia and NATO's Military Training Exercises Are Being Conducted With 'War Plans in Mind,' Report Says

A think tank analyzing the recent military training exercises of Russia and NATO believes these activities are only fueling tensions and the risk for an actual war.

Fighters of Ukrainian volunteers battalion of Azov take part in military exercises near the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol on February 27, 2015. (AFP PHOTO/GENYA SAVILOV)

The European Leadership Network looked at two recent military training exercises specifically — one by Russia and one by NATO — and in a policy brief published this week described how it believes these cases show "each side is training with the other side’s capabilities and most likely war plans in mind."

"Whilst spokespeople may maintain that these operations are targeted against hypothetical opponents, the nature and scale of them indicate otherwise: Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia," ELN stated on its website.

ELN went on to say that it doesn't think that either side has actually made the decision to go to war or that war is inevitable, but that the "increased scope and size of the military exercises" by both parties "[plays] a role in sustaining the current climate of tensions in Europe."

Ian Kearns, director of the London-based think tank and co-author on the study, told The Associated Press that the war games "are contributing to a climate of mistrust."

According to the brief, NATO conducted 162 military training exercises in 2014 – double its originally planned number — and, perhaps in response, Russia's Ministry of Defense announced its plan to have 4,000 exercises in 2015. ELN pointed out that the numbers, technically, are not comparable because Russia's projections includes drills at various levels.

Still, this "action-reaction cycle in terms of military exercises" is concerning for a number of reasons, according to ELN.

"First, while one side may aim its actions at strengthening deterrence and preparing for defensive actions, the other side perceives the same exercises as provocative and deliberate aggravation of the crisis," it stated.

Another concern, it said, are "near misses" that have occurred when either side is conducting surveillance on the other's training activities.

"For example, there were reports that Russian Su-30 and Su-24 bombers approached close to NATO warships exercising in the Black Sea in March 2015," ELN stated. "Also, a number of NATO interceptions of Russian aircraft and ships moving between the Kaliningrad exclave and mainland Russia have been a consequence of ongoing Russian exercises. This has also been the cause of several Russian breaches of Finnish and Estonian airspace."

To reduce tensions caused by the military exercises, ELN recommended the following:

• It is vitally important to increase NATO – Russia communication with regards to the schedule of exercises;

• Both sides should utilize OSCE channels as much as possible, along with the existing catalogue of Confidence and Security Building Measures (CSBMs) included i.a. in the Vienna Document  to increase military predictability;

• The politicians on both sides should examine the benefits and dangers of intensified exercising in the border areas. If Russia or NATO decides at some point that they want to reduce tensions, showing restraint in terms of size or scenarios used in exercises might be a good place to start;

• Conceptual work on a new treaty introducing reciprocal territorial limitations on deployment of specific categories of weapons, backed by robust inspections, should commence as soon as possible.

NATO spokesperson Carmen Romero responded that it was misleading to equate NATO and Russian activities.

"NATO military exercises are not, as the reports suggest, making war in Europe more likely," she said. "They are intended precisely to have the opposite effect: to enhance security and stability in Europe in response to growing Russian aggression."

The ELN urged governments to examine the need for greater restraint in the size and scenarios of future exercises.

"History is full of examples of leaders who think they can keep control of events, and events have a habit of taking on a momentum and dynamic of their own," said Kearns.

Romero said NATO had given a year's advance notice about an upcoming exercise that will be its biggest in more than a decade, and will also invite Russia and other countries to send observers to watch it.

However, she said Russia "is deliberately avoiding military transparency and predictability," and fueling instability by continuing to hold "unpredictable and surprise military maneuvers."

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.