CNN polling expert Harry Enten explained Monday that President Joe Biden is hemorrhaging support with black voters — and it may cost Democrats in November.
What did Enten say?
Breaking down the data on CNN's "New Day," Enten spotlighted the notable drop in support for Democrats among black voters.
Examining pre-electoral preferences, Enten showed how Democrats in Congress are receiving 74% of support among black voters. The figure seems high, but when you compare that number with what it was just two or four years ago, the concerning development for Democrats becomes obvious.
"Compare [74%] to the final polling for 2020 president and 2018 Congress. Back in 2020 it was 84%, 85% in 2018," Enten said. "So, you're clearly seeing right here that there is less support for Democratic candidates for Congress among African-Americans."
That drop translates to a sizable pickup for Republicans, Enten explained.
"You can look at the Republican column as well and you can see that 12%, not exactly high, but that's actually the high-water mark. It was 9% in 2020, 9% in 2018," he said. "So, basically, what was about a 75, 76-point margin is now down in the low 60s."
What is causing the drop?
Enten attributed the drop in support for Democrats broadly to President Joe Biden's low approval rating.
"Take a look at Joe Biden's approval rating among black adults. If you go back to January to June 2021... it was 87%, basically matching what he got in the 2020 election," Enten noted. "But look at that approval rating now, in August and September 2022, it's all the way down to 64%.
"Now, obviously, Joe Biden's approval rating with all Americans is down, but it's not down by anywhere near this amount— this 23-point drop," he continued. "Among all Americans, it's only down about 10–15 points. So, there is a disproportionate drop in Joe Biden's approval ratings among African-Americans. And I think that's kind of driving why you're seeing Democrats running for Congress, getting a significantly lower margin than we're used to seeing."
Host Brianna Keilar responded, "That is huge. That is a huge drop there."
Turning to Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams is challenging Gov. Brian Kemp, the same phenomenon is occurring.
"Among African-American voters, Stacey Abrams' lead is actually down from 79 points in the final 2018 polling to 67 points now," Enten said.
"So, in Georgia, this key state where black voters make up such a large portion of the electorate, you're seeing, again, more movement among black voters away from the Democratic Party than you're seeing among voters overall," he explained.
Meanwhile, the same thing is happening with Hispanic voters, Enten said. Fewer are supporting Democrats than in past elections, and more are supporting Republicans.