TheBlaze Radio Network is the new exclusive home to Jay Severin, and his new show is now live every weekday afternoon from 2-5pm ET. Check out the network’s full lineup and listen for free. (http://www.theblaze.com/radio/)
Everyone, it is said, claims to know two businesses – their own and politics.
Despite the tedious, transparent ignorance of the usual suspect “journalists” covering the presidential contest, their ponderous analyses on politics continues to “set the market” for the public’s daily sense of “who’s winning.”
If you really want to know what is happening and what will happen, forget the feckless talking heads at CNN or Marxist imbeciles at MSNBC. They might as well be making predictions on local tribal chieftain elections in Fiji –about which they likely know much more.
I spent 25 years on the campaign and media side of the football. I can offer you play-by-play or Color. I’m feeling generous, here’s both: five reasons (the political professionals) believe why it will be President Romney.
(1) Political change happens, but suspension of the laws of gravity does not. Over a lifetime advising candidates in this country and abroad, some things have never changed:
-The oldest, most significant question in history of U.S. public opinion polling: Asked of voters “Is the country on the right or wrong track?” No incumbent underwater on this question–including very impressive candidates for dog catcher–gets re-elected. For more than two years, across the board, voter response to this central question has consistently been greater than 2 to 1 wrong track.
-“Independents.” Pretend what you wish, independents weren’t born politically a-sexual. The vast majority of them are, and will vote, Republican.
-Much like “right/wrong track,” one of the profound metrics or indicators in a presidential campaign is a president who cannot hit 50 percent approval among voters. Obama has consistently failed to reach 50 percent in over two years. Uh Oh.
-The single-most important signifier in the history of American campaigns is “Economy/Jobs.” Under Obama, the nation’s performance in this area sucks. People know it. I can’t promise you Obama can’t get elected with these numbers, but I can promise you nobody ever has.
(2) Everything we think we “know” about this election is based exclusively on polls, which despite enjoying the undue respect of the public are utter sh**. There are maybe five pollsters in America who could not successfully be sued for malpractice. There is nothing so common and useless in American media/”politics” than inept polls. Worse, it is easy and cheap to produce a “poll,” which hustlers and newspapers (forgive the redundancy), know is obviously inaccurate. Good polls, by good pollsters, are very difficult to produce ad very expensive.
The New York Times doesn’t want am accurate poll; they want the cheapest poll they can report by day-after-tomorrow. They do this by ignoring virtually all the tenets of a good poll in favor of quick/cheap/bad polls – which have an added advantage for the MSM: they polls guaranteed to yield liberal results.
Why are these polls inaccurate? Of 100 Americans eligible to vote, only circa 1/3 of us turn out. So when you talk to non-voters (2/3 of the sample), you get non-results. But bad pollsters don’t care about that minor detail! They want a headline.
Most of the bad polls we see today are based on voter turn out models of 2008. Why? There has been a national election since then: 2010. Difference is Obama voters turned out/won 2008 – Tea Party/Patriots turned out in 2010.
Bottom line, the majority of polls we see are garbage. Average results of 10 bad polls, know what that yields? One bad average.
The Real polling in this – and every campaign – is being done in strictest confidence by top pollsters, at a cost of $1Million+ Per Month! Know what NBC Pays per month for its polling? Same as your electric bill.
Think that affects quality of results?!
Most polls/pollsters showing Obama ahead are Wrong. Demonstrably Wrong. Intentional Obama Propaganda. The media won’t report it, because the media is the culprit. If you want good polls check out Doug Schoen, Scott Rasmussen, or Pat Caddell.
(3) Watch for the “Silent Majority.” Per Ann Coulter’s latest blockbuster, “Mugged”, racial politics permeate our politics. Pity. The major effect it will have on this election is that many people, in my professional opinion, are intimidated at work, among friends and in public to express a pro-Romney viewpoint – inasmuch as that equals an “anti-Obama” viewpoint. Which of course equals a “racist” opinion.
Ask yourself: how many men and women just clam up at work or parties, rather than be labeled ‘racist?’
That is a theory. Until my dear friend Ann Coulter appeared on my BlazeRadioShow last week and told the story of a man who brought home a Romney lawn sign, in reaction to which his wife recoiled in horror, saying “You’re not going to put THAT on our lawn! Everyone will think we’re Racists!”
No, we’re against Obama, socialism, and for Romney. While we may eschew lawn signs, we do – and will – vote robustly.
-About 10 percent of the electorate who will in the end vote, remain “Undecided.”
-In no national election in recorded US history has an incumbent won the majority of Undecideds in the final days. If you have an incumbent president that has already served four years, and now in the heat of an election you still can’t bring yourself to support him, you are going to do what late Undecided voters have always done: vote heavily for the challenger. Mitt will capture 70% of Undecided vote in closing days, easy.
(5) A greater percent of Romney supporters are going to turn out than Obama voters. In 2008, there was a gap between Republican and Democrat voter turn out. In a 4 percent race, that made the difference. In 2012, there again will be a big turn out gap. This time, it’s ours.
Mister Mentum, first name “Mo,” will amplify this result. MO has, undeniably, parachuted in again, unannounced but subtle as a mule kick for one candidate: Romney. In my professional estimation, this was inevitable – but is tangibly derivative of The ROMNEY-obama debate. Unaccustomed to being challenged (or correct), President Obama was absolutely overwhelmed by Romney’s superior knowledge, style and, yes, truth.
Ask yourself: Do you honestly expect Obama to beat Romney – in two debates? Me neither. (In fact, if Obama doesn’t absolutely dazzle next Tuesday night, most voters who watch Debates won’t bother to watch 3rd contest.)
As of several days ago, unless Obama changes the fundamental dynamic of this campaign, “On Any Given Tuesday” – he loses this election. Look at the size/enthusiasm of the candidate crowds over the past 10 days. This is a reaction to the profound difference between a wasted, libelous $100Million Obama TV Ad brutalization of Romney as a Monster.
Guess what? Voters suddenly saw and intuitively embraced the real Mitt Romney – the difference between Obama Night and Romney Daylight.
Remember the old electric Obama pre-election magic?
“Under new management.”
As will be the United States of America, in roughly two weeks.